Fritz's Fav Fictional Figures Faction Fest - Game over

[curiouskarmadog]

that being said, havent heard from Sarc much since my claim...wonder why that is?

[Glork]

unvote, vote Cephrir

Still thinking it's likely he's 'bad town' not scum so much, but this vote will work for now.

FoS

Perhaps you'll like this more.

unvote, vote Glork

My Cephrir vote was merely a placeholder. I don't unvote without revoting. You should know this about me, Glork. And I was trying to take the time to go back and re-read to decide which of you and Sarc was more suspicious. I'm starting to think Brian was onto something earlier in the day about lynching one of you two. This vote is has a hint of gut in it that has stuck with me since the beginning of the day, but I don't like a couple of things. First, the way you tried to drum up suspicion against Jdodge. It was weak, and the way you backed off shows that you weren't all that serious about it. It appears that you were pushing false suspicion that didn't pan out. Second, the way you off-handedly mentioned just following me on CKD. Also, there was the way you painted Sarc as a possible SK. I think this is more likely if you think he's scum, but know he's not in your scumgroup.

OMGIS!

[Glork]

Meh, I guess I should probably actually post something worthwhile.



Putting a placeholder on somebody you think is protwn is moronic if you're protown. End of story. The vote on Cephrir was terrible, and it looked to me that you were hoping he'd end up with too much momentum. A seemingly useless/placeholder vote can do that.

A vote is a vote, and at this stage in a day, you should only be voting for somebody you'd be willing to lynch... NOT somebody who you think is likely town.

I think it was terrible then, and I think the "I don't unvote without re-voting" defense -- while that statement is true -- is a terrible justification for that vote. You could just as easily have put it on me or Sarc back then with the stipulation that you were considering moving it to the other. Why didn't you choose to do that?

Re: JDodge. Don't flatter yourself, Ibby. It's obvious that I've not been a fan of your play so far, so the idea that "I asked you about JDodge" implies "I was trying to drum up support [in general] for a JDodge lynch" is ridiculous. Most of that conversation was between myself and JDodge, because I was trying to figure out what was going on (which is more or less the exact opposite of trying to wagon him to death). If I were trying to drive a wagon, do you think I would have dropped it after a couple of minutes of Q&A?

Also, your statement that I 'pushed' Sarc as a possible SK is blown entirely out of proportion. I mentioned it at the end of

ONE

of my posts, and I think I made a clarifying statement

when asked about it by another player

. Explain to me how that is "

PUSHING

" that angle.

[Sarcastro]

that being said, havent heard from Sarc much since my claim...wonder why that is?

Oh come on, CKD. Are you that desperate to throw suspicion on me? You haven't heard from me much since I

stated that I wasn't going to talk unless I was asked a question or wanted specifically to comment on something

.

I said that I don't believe you're claim. For the record, it's because you're acting so incredibly scummy that I simply will not believe you are not scum until Fritz posts it in the first post, and even then I might wonder if you're some kind of Death-Godfather.

I don't buy that we just happened to hit upon a cop when one is already dead. Finding a scum who's decided to fakeclaim cop seems a lot more likely.

Oh, and Glork, please stop being scum.

[Skruffs]

28 players, and only one (sanity not confirmed) cop?
Seriously?

[Elmo]

CKD: You need to post your role name, and I don't know why you haven't, yet. Your flavour is rather incomplete without it. Do you have any indication of your sanity? You run the risk of looking like you're trying to deflect attention from yourself with that comment on Sarc. I'm not happy about him, but let's do one thing at a time, please. Also, please point out what is wrong with ibaesha's 'fake/newbie card' post. Not in that you merely disagree, but in that she's unreasonable to say that.

Jumping on a bandwagon is not just about votes…the pattern is this, once anyone comes under the limelight (with FoSes or questions) slightly, Ibby is one of first votes there with little reason.

You need to go through and show why she has little reason, rather than just quoting the fact she did it. Also, townies sometimes really do vote people for little or no reason - bandwagoning is a legit tactic to get information out of people, and you need to show why what she's doing is different from that.

28 players, and only one (sanity not confirmed) cop?
Seriously?

I agree with this response. But the fact Skruffs gives this response worries me about rolefishing. I think that's enough speculation, personally.

I don't buy that we just happened to hit upon a cop when one is already dead. Finding a scum who's decided to fakeclaim cop seems a lot more likely.

Why does a dead cop make a fake claim

more

likely? I don't see a good argument for that, at the moment.

Oh, and Glork, please stop being scum.

If you're not going to talk unless you're asked a question or want to comment on something, then, uh, do so, k?

[JDodge]

28 players, and only one (sanity not confirmed) cop?
Seriously?

Why does there need to be more than one cop?

Why does everyone assume that all large games will have cops galore?

[Sarcastro]

28 players, and only one (sanity not confirmed) cop?
Seriously?

I didn't say anything close to that.

You guys are looking at this the wrong way. It's not about how many cops there are, it's about the likelihood that we just happen to have started a bandwagon on a second cop.

Let's say there were two cops at the game's start. One cop is dead now. That means there is one cop left out of 21 remaining players. We have had three people claim so far today. That's one seventh of the players. There is only a one in seven chance, assuming role does not affect bandwagon likelihood, that the cop would be one of those three people.

Of course, this alone doesn't really prove anything. After all, there's only a one in seven chance of any one-of role being one of those who's claimed. But what are the odds of hitting scum who decide to fakeclaim cop? Cop is obviously a desirable fakeclaim for scum, and it's one that scum are decently likely to get away with (at least for a while) in a large game. Let's assume there are, say, five scum in this game. I'm also going to assume that at least one of those scum would fakeclaim cop if they were forced to claim at this point in the game. Is that an unreasonable assumption? I think it might even be a bit conservative. There's also the fact that scum are generally more likely to be run up than cops, because, y'know, they're scum, and so on average tend to be scummier. But even discounting that and going by my rather conservative estimates

and assuming that there were two cops to begin with rather than one

, it is

at least

as likely that CKD is scum fakeclaiming cop.

Oh, and there's also the fact that he's more scummy than most species of algae. So yeah, I would not at all be opposed to a CKD lynch. If you want to keep him alive because of the possibility that he really is a cop, go ahead. Personally, though, I prefer to lynch scum when I catch it.

And by the way, Elmo, I don't see how adding a comment about Glork's scumminess contradicts what I said. I spoke for a reason - to address what CKD said. I never said that I wouldn't throw in unrelated comments. Oh, and there's also the fact that I can do whatever the hell I want, and I'm only limiting my speech as a courtesy to those who are apparently so distracted by it that it prevents them from playing properly. So I'd rather not have you trying to police my behaviour, especially when you clearly don't even pay attention to what I said my behaviour would be.

[Rogueben]

I agree that CKD needs to give his role name.

I dislike Sarc's argument about scum fake-claiming. I think, assuming CKD gives a name that matches his flavor in his next post, we should leave him alone

for the moment

and wait to see what his investigation results are later.

Putting a placeholder on somebody you think is protwn is moronic if you're protown.

QFT

[Sarcastro]

What don't you like about my argument, Rogueben? Do you not agree with my analysis, or do you just think that the possible benefits if he is a cop outweigh the risk that he's scum, regardless of how much more likely it is that he's the latter?

[Rogueben]

I think, firstly, your argument relies on too many assumptions leading to a conclusion that it is "unlikely" that a 1/7 chance occurred (which isn't that unlikely really). And secondly, yes the possibility that he is a cop can be tested in the future so why lynch him now when we can find someone else who may be scum.

I am not defending CKD here, I just don't think he is the right lynch for today.

[Sarcastro]

Which assumptions don't you like?

And I think you might have missed the main point. It's not about how likely 1/7 is, but rather about how likely it is that he's a cop versus how likely it is that he's scum who's claimed cop. It doesn't really matter whether it's 1/7 or 1/100 or 1/2, the point is that even given what I think are conservative estimates and not counting several factors that point to him being scum, he's still at least as likely to be scum as he is to be a real cop.

[Rogueben]

Yes it is still quite possible that he is scum. However there are many other scum out there and given that there are ways of testing his claim I think that we should focus on someone else.

[Sarcastro]

That doesn't answer my question or address my point. Why bother answering if you're just going be evasive and irrelevant?

I realise that your opinion is that it's better to leave him alive for now. I'm just trying to get some more information on what you don't like about my argument, rather than about why you don't like the course of action I'd prefer to take.

[Rogueben]

The main problem that I have with your argument is that you use maths throughout to try and convince people that what you say is correct when in fact your probabilities don't match your final judgement.

Let's assume there are, say, five scum in this game. I'm also going to assume that at least one of those scum would fakeclaim cop if they were forced to claim at this point in the game.

You, I believe, require at least 3 scum to "plan" to fakeclaim cop for the probabilities to be equivalent to it being a cop.
This is because you have a 5/21 chance of hitting scum. Now if only one of them was planning on fakeclaiming cop then you have 1/5 * 5/21 = 1/21 chance of them being scum fakeclaiming cop. So for these probabilities to be equivalent you need 3/5 * 5/21 = 321 = 1/7, ie 3 scum who plan on fakeclaiming cop.

Is it likely that three fifths of the scum "plan" to fakeclaim cop? I don't know and I think that is too far into the realm of assumption to be able to say

it is at least as likely that CKD is scum fakeclaiming cop.

If I have missed something in your argument please tell me.

[curiouskarmadog]

I have only skimmed page 42 and will read it later..I have given you my role..

"merely a detective/cop" I have paraphrased the hell out of the PM, if I say anything I will be quoting it directly.

[UltimaAvalon]

CKD: You need to post your role name

I agree that CKD needs to give his role name.

Also my name is “Jamie Madrox, Multiple Man”

Reading in FUN

What I don't get is why, when CKD claimed his role, he said "I have abilities that can be construed as cop-like" rather than saying "I'm a cop"

[Rogueben]

Sorry I missed that CKD.

[YagamiLight]

You know I noticed that he had claimed, I was going to wait for him to claim again anyways just because it was kind of buried, and if he were scum he may not have remembered it and claimed something else. The way I had seen it, if he were telling the truth there was nothing to worry about. It does seem a bit odd to me that he didn't just repost it though, I mean he quoted it in 1023, but makes no mention to having already claimed his name and doesn't re-claim it. As town he should already know that name to repost it, and even if he didn't, it's as simple as checking a pm.

[curiouskarmadog]

You know I noticed that he had claimed, I was going to wait for him to claim again anyways just because it was kind of buried, and if he were scum he may not have remembered it and claimed something else. The way I had seen it, if he were telling the truth there was nothing to worry about. It does seem a bit odd to me that he didn't just repost it though, I mean he quoted it in 1023, but makes no mention to having already claimed his name and doesn't re-claim it. As town he should already know that name to repost it, and even if he didn't, it's as simple as checking a pm.

really I was confused..I claimed..then people wanted favor...I provided the mod approved flavor, then they wanted my role..I couldnt figure out what they wanted (which is why I said, if I say anything else I would be quoting the PM directly) I did mention I had already provided it, but gave it again....because I was unsure what everyone was asking for.

[Iammars]

All right, I caught up.

Wow, that was a lot, even if I glazed over a lot of my predecessor's posts.

ckd: I believe you for now.

Sarc: Obviously I have a slightly biased view on the whole you v. Blight thing, but still, you were going a little over the top.

Glork: I dunno about you, I haven't actually played in many games with you, mainly reading games that you've played in. However, this does seem to be relatively scummy.

Ibby: Is right. Duh.

Seriously guys. We're on page 42 of a game modded by Fritzler and it's only Day 2. What is wrong with you guys?

MOD: Vote Count Please

[Skruffs]

Multiple Man, it sounds like the scenario from "The PRestige" or something

[Iammars]

Eh, I was bored:

Unofficial Vote Count

, powered by The Count-Counter 2000

Cephrir- 5 (Mastermind of Sin, Flameaxe, UltimaAvalon, Sarcastro, YagamiLight)
Sarcastro- 3 (Iammars, Cephrir, Glork)
curiouskarmadog- 2 (Rogueben, PookytheMagicalBear)
YagamiLight- 2 (Skruffs, JDodge)
Glork- 2 (KaleiDoscope, ibaesha)
Iammars- 1 (petroleumjelly)
Skruffs- 1 (Elmo)
ibaesha- 1 (curiouskarmadog)

Not voting (4): Thin_man, IH, Xyzzy, CrashTextDummie

11 to lynch.

Depending on the deadline, I might just go after a Cephrir lynch just so thatwe have a lynch today. He looks like the only clear target except maybe Sarc.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Unvote, Vote: Glork

I can't believe my vote was still on Cephrir.

[Elmo]

Why are you voting Glork? Reasoning plz.