Mini 515 - The Pine Barrens - Game Over!

[opie]

opie has 57 game posts on mafiascum.net

Now he is telling me how to play mafia? Seriously, STFU with that "spirit of Mafia" nonsense. Mafia is a game that was developed by Math geeks with an interest in game theory, like me.

One word: classy.

We tend to ignore 2000 word posts filled with subjective nonsense and logic so fuzzy and undefined that it is impossible to engage.

I thought 2000 words posts contributed to my "activeness". Isn't that a good thing?

Note that I was lynched the same day I replaced in, and I was a townie. Try to follow my posts- I did generate a game winning tactic (rooted in math) that the town decided to lynch me for.

If I followed correctly, you were trying to convince others to encrypt secret messages so that townies could communicate privately. So I see that both are rooted in math, but that seems all that they have in common. I don't understand why you brind this up.

I though I would try being a little more honest in this game- and actually explain what is driving me to the conclusions I reach.

But you're not really. You are honest in that you are using an algorithm, but that seems to be all the explanation you provide. You won't show us what lies under the algorithm.

So, despite my earlier post saying that he was not a good lynch choice for today, unvote:opie, vote:mcpaltp

I'm curious what your algorithm has to say about mcpaltp. What's his percentage? Is your vote for him based on anything other than his breadcrumb role claim?

Boggzie, you said that neko2086's vote for Adel was distracting. He asked you why but I don't see that you responded, only saying that he is now off your list for reason's you would like to share until Adel responds. I would also like to join in asking why the vote was distracting and what are you waiting for Adel to respond to?

ThAdmiral, I think this is the first you've mentioned by suspicious of TheHermit. What are you suspicious of?

[opie]

Just noticed this:

I'm in a game full of SA players. oh. lynch me now.

vanilla townie

here, not full of noise, but at least it is safer than continuing with the day and possibly outing a powerrole.

I've said pretty much all that I want to in this thread for this audience anyhow.

unvote: vote:adel

*** Emphasis mine

Seriously?!

[mcpaltp]

I think I'm the only SA player here. I'm sorry you don't like me:( it's still no reason to go all emo on us. If you are town, you should unvote now, and at least let us get some more information from your death. If you are scum, screw you, but unvoting will make you look more town, at any rate.

This sort of behavior is certainly making me reconsider joining this community. Bah.

[Adel]

a note about scumtells: they are just like tells in poker. If I know you rub you eyebrow when you try to decide if you want to bluff or not, I will beat you in poker on a very regular basis. If you figure out that I am looking for if you rub your eyebrow or not, you will have the advantage.

I keep the tells that I look for secret so that scum will not adapt.

I agree with the general sentiment of not trusting Adel and his magical mystery algorithm. Especially when he asks us to just trust it, then admits that it screwed up in the recently completed game. A-durr.

I won that game. A-durr. I know when to use it and when not to use it.

Everyone and their mother has a "system" for winning it big in Vegas. They all fail, spectacularly. Do you know why that is? Mostly because it's essentially impossible to predict randomness, but also because math ignores the human element, and you simply can't do that in a highly personal game like mafia.

counting cards when they only used two decks for blackjack used to be a system. automated investing strategies are common on Wall Street, especially with Hedge funds. to clean up NYC, an algorithm was used to determine police beats, with great success. "the human element" is a myth, for any system there will be patterns that can be modeled and predicted with some degree of accuracy. even a totally random system will produce results that are not totally random.

[hasdgfas]

Adel: Why the heck are you self-voting? We lost two townies after a day 1 without too much information, do you want us to lose two more after a day that has been more helpful and can actually give us information? I'm not sure whether I find you more suspicious more self-voting or less suspicious. Maybe if there was a plan to your sacrifice besides "I don't want to out a powerrole", it would help a lot. But would you rather be down four townies with hidden powerroles or find a powerrole and have a better chance of hitting scum today?

I do, however, agree that scumtells are like tells in poker. Good analogy

mcpaltp: Not all of us self-vote when we're under suspicion. Hopefully you don't consider this game as a good example of a normal game here, because it's been anything but.

[Rishi]

Eleventh Vote Count - Day 2

Adel - 5 (opie, mcpaltp, Bookitty, neko2086, Adel)
Bookitty – 1 (Elias_the_thief)
neko2086 - 1 (TheHermit)

Not voting: Boggzie, ThAdmiral, hasdgfas

10 alive. 6 votes to lynch.

Deadline: November 20, 11:59pm

Five votes will be enough to lynch at deadline.

Deadline may be extended to December 4 at the request of a majority of the players. Requests so far: 0

[Adel]

look, i think it is pretty obvious who has been trying to get me lynched. there are two scum on my wagon: opie, mcpaltp, and/or Bookitty

I am confident that I identified the scum.

A mislynch of me leaves 8 alive tomorrow. 5 town & 3 scum

A correct lynch of opie tomorrow 5 town & 2 scum

followed by a nk: 4 town & 2 scum

followed by a lynch of either Bookitty or mcpaltp: either 3 town & 2 scum (scum win) or 4 town and 1 scum (probable town win)

a this point, as I see it, my lynch is pretty much inevitable. the only question is how much noise and confusion will the scum be able to sow before my death scene? I hope to minimize that.

good luck town, but I don't have a very high expectation of us winning. at all.

[Boggzie]

I'm dropping the hammer

vote: adel

[Adel]

lynch opie tomorrow, and if that is a miss, vote boggzie to get out of the lynch-or-lose, then consider mcpaltp against Bookitty for the town win.

[Adel]

also, when you do your own analysis, you now know four names of innocents: me, ryan, and yourself. keep that in mind as you use an updated version of the voting diagram.

voting diagrams, once you learn how to read them easily, can be a great study aid.

[Adel]

who knows how long this twilight will last, but I am online, checking this thread continually, and i'm willing to answer questions...

[Rishi]

Final Vote Count - Day 2

Adel - 6 (opie, mcpaltp, Bookitty, neko2086, Adel, Boggzie)
Bookitty – 1 (Elias_the_thief)
neko2086 - 1 (TheHermit)

Not voting: ThAdmiral, hasdgfas

*

A fear of math? A stranger rides into town carrying armloads of graphs and data. Immediately, the stranger is greeted with fear and suspicion.

Someone says, “Are you from New Jersey, stranger? If so, what exit? You may have stepped to the wrong side of the Phantom Tollbooth.”

The stranger responds, “I don’t think that any of you are exercising logic. Also, the first paragraphs implies that I came by horse while the second seems to imply I am driving a car. How can I live in a world where the flavor text doesn’t make sense?”

The stranger says, “If it’s death you want, then death you shall have. I will sit in the electric chair and strap myself in. All you have to do is look at my pie charts.”

Someone Else says, “I hate pie charts.”

The stranger still insists, “But this town was founded by mathematicians!”

Someone says, “No, it wasn’t. It was founded by psychologists. Look it up. And I also hate pie charts.”

Someone pulls the switch.

Adel, Townie, lynched Day 2.

*

Night choices due by Sunday, November 18, 11:59pm. If all night choices come in early, then Day 3 will begin early.

[Rishi]

Morning again. Your fevered dreams of equations and mathematical functions means that you did not get much sleep. Each one of you finds a DVD in the mailbox.

This time the scene opens on a charter, hundreds of years old, of a society sworn to protect the town from all evil presences. Could it have been corrupted somehow and turned against the town?

Your initial thoughts are soon proven wrong.

Figures burst into the room, their identities hidden as the camera pans to the inhabitants. Two people, their faces a blur, sit at a table dressed in cool red robes with gold trim and fezzes.

You’re distracted from the impending doom as you think, “Man, these secret societies sure know how to dress. I wonder if they are accepting applications for membership.”

One of the robed figures quickly runs out the back door, but the other works furiously to save his baby turtles from the rain of bullets.

You breathe a sigh. All the baby turtles are still alive! The robed figure, however, is a messy pulp of blood and carnage.

TheHermit, Mason, killed Night 2

It is now Day Three. Eight alive means five votes to lynch.

[mcpaltp]

So Boggzie, care to justify why you dropped the hammer? I notice you didn't exactly justify yourself there.

I also really didn't like how much thAdmiral stood back and didn't really participate. He threw a few lines out on how he thought that Zak/Adel was not scummy, which felt like he was establishing a "Look, I thought she was townie, I can't be scum!" defense. It looked like he was distancing himself from the lynch, and already knew how the cardflip would go.

He missed the day 1 semi-lynch (which may have just been coputer problems) and stood away from the second day. For that matter, Holy crap! He hasn't put a vote on [/i]anyone this entire game!

are you petrified of having an opinion or are you just scared of attracting attention? I don't like it at all, and I think you are acting scummy as hell.

##Vote:thAdmiral

Oh, Rishi? I'm loving the flavor. I really liked the bit about psychologists.

[mcpaltp]

Oh yeah, I hate to talk ill of the dead, but:

Screw you Adel for being a townie and voting for yourself. That emo crap seems to be infecting this game, and It sickens me. Both of the "lynches" (ryan was pretty close to being lynched anyway, IIRC) have been at least partially self inflicted townie deaths.

To reiterate: If you are town, do not vote for yourself, it hurts your side Every townie self-vote makes the scum cackle with glee. QUIT IT, not only in this game but every game, alright?

Fer cryin' out loud.

[hasdgfas]

So Boggzie, care to justify why you dropped the hammer? I notice you didn't exactly justify yourself there.

I second the motion. I was very disappointed to see that. I came back from class and it was night, and I saw Boggzie's hammer and didn't see any reasoning behind it. I will hold off of a vote because I know the danger of voting for someone who gives an unreasoned hammer, but if the explanation doesn't satisfy...

[Boggzie]

Neko - you dropped of my "watch list" because you defended your position, and didn't jump away from your vote.

I dropped the hammer on Adel, because all of her (I guess) posts seemed like noise, distraction. Then, the self-vote I truly thought was a way of getting one of you to remove your vote from a mafia member. I figured Adel was banking on someone being too level-headed and cautious and removing a vote, or in my case or Admiral's we'd be too "standoffish" to toss a vote. Adel also never answered any questions, s/he only tossed around more noise and seemed to muddy the game.

[hasdgfas]

Neko - you dropped of my "watch list" because you defended your position, and didn't jump away from your vote.

I dropped the hammer on Adel, because all of her (I guess) posts seemed like noise, distraction. Then, the self-vote I truly thought was a way of getting one of you to remove your vote from a mafia member. I figured Adel was banking on someone being too level-headed and cautious and removing a vote, or in my case or Admiral's we'd be too "standoffish" to toss a vote. Adel also never answered any questions, s/he only tossed around more noise and seemed to muddy the game.

That seems like a logical explanation. I felt the same way regarding her posts. Personally, I am satisfied with that reasoning, although it would have been nice to see that in your hammering post.

[neko2086]

You know, I stand by my statements that Adel was in no way helping the town at the time. But, with every townie lynch comes a wealth of information, and now that we know she was really trying to help us out, we ought to do her some justice and take her arguments into serious consideration.

While I still have trouble believing an equation can really figure everything out, she seemed very confident that she had found the scum. I'm not sure about Bookitty yet, and neither was Adel, but for the time being I don't think we can worry about her. Either opie or mcpaltp needs to be lynched.

I was already suspicious of mcpaltp, but Adel seemed to believe that opie needed to be lynched first. During the night, I took this into careful consideration as I watched the three suspected's actions.

Here's the interesting thing. Mcpaltp, opie, and Bookitty, and Boggzie are the only ones who were partly responsible for

both

ryan's and Adel's lynch. Whether Bookitty is more likely scum than Boggzie, I'm not sure yet.

Now, Admiral has been lurky, yes, but he's of late become a target of Bookitty first (quite a few pages ago), followed by questioning by Opie (but admittedly, no vote), and now a brash vote by mcpaltp.

Mcpaltp, do you really think you can get off that easy? You're very quick to point out that boggzie dropped the hammer, but don't forget that you voted Adel as well. I sure as hell don't expect to be let off easy, and if I become suspect in the near future (especially by opie, yourself, and bookitty), I won't be surprised. In fact, I'm surprised I haven't been voted yet, because I thought I saw what the scum's tactic was with hermit's death. Hermit was the only one voting for me, and wouldn't it be so easy to say, look, neko voted for adel, and now he killed off the person voting for him. Maybe the mafia is just waiting for me to talk first, I don't know.

I may be glossing over details, so if anyone needs me to, I will find posts that reference some of the things I said. I just wanted to get this out before the mafia had a chance to say anything against me. At this point, I'm very willing to believe that opie is mafia, but I'm going to go with the one I'm 100% positive about first.

vote: mcpaltp

You're trying to shift attention away from yourself

and

all the others who voted for Adel. Included in these voters is certainly some if not all mafia, I think there is no doubt there.

[mcpaltp]

I think that there may be some mafia in Adel's lynch, heck, it may even be highly probable, depending on the setup (on which I will not deign to speculate). But, it would be hypocritical to jump on everyone who was on the lynch, as I am certain that at least one townie was on it too.

Adel was acting highly suspicous, and

was

coming off scummy. At this point, I'm actually more suspicious of those who did not vote for her, all other things being equal. The utter lack of suspicon on Adel by ThAdmiral, coupled with

his utter lack of any votes whatsoever

and dissapearance day 1 is what's making me so suspicious of him, if you have forgotten already.

If you think I've forgotten I've voted for Adel, you don't know me, baby. I thought s/he was scum and voted for her. Damned if everybody doesn't know what I'm thinking at any given time. Basing votes on magic fomulas and hidden information is secretive, and the players with the greatest need for secrecy are scum.

And while we are on the subject, I'm finding it strange how you are suddenly thinking that the magical algorhythm that Adel ran fingering Bookitty and Opie is suddenly accurate now that Adel has flipped town. I have no faith in her/his formula (whatever the heck it is, s/he never did say what it was) and I'm throwing out her/his wild specualtions as white noise. As for Adel's faith in her/his magic, she switched to me, a townie, when I quesitoned her. That says something about her faith in her formula.

Whoa golly, I seem to be picking up steam here.

For that matter, I'm very interested in how you think that I'm trying to shift attention away from the Adel situation. If you wanna brawl it out on who was right or wrong in that lynch, feel free to bring it on. You want discussion that can get really muddy really quickly, and probably go nowhere. I'd rather pursue the guy who I think I've caught a good scumtell on: ThAdmiral. If you'd rather bicker pointlessly and not go after scum, I'd say that's a scumtell right there. If I didn't want to try and find out what the heck ThAdmiral was doing, I'd be voting for you so hard.

It would not surprise me if you were just trying to pre-empt any dicussion of ThAdmiral. A quiet, lurky scum would need someone loud to run interference.

Ha! And what did you want me to do? Aplogise to the town for being in a lynch of a townie? Not blinkin' likely.

Oh yeah, and to remind everyone, with two days of whiffing and eight people left, there is a good chance that we are at LYLO. Watch the heck out for quicklynches and other such crap.

[opie]

Ok, so you're making lots of assumptions to make this thing work. The problem with assumptions is that they're misleading. The bigger problem is that you've based a mathematical equation on your assumptions and now you're touting it to be worthy of basing votes. Plus, you're not willing to share what those assumptions are, so why should we assume you're making good ones?

Now this is interesting, because to me, your pretty graphs and percentages don't mean anything to me.

I'm sorry, but your reasoning to me is bogus. Your graphs are useless. Your percentages and assumptions are misleading, and worse yet, you're being incredibly secretive. I think you've got something to hide, and you are hiding them with fluffy charts and mumbo jumbo.

If you want to be remembered, and in a good way, could you do us all a favor and actually read the posts? I mean, not just the vote patterns, but the actual context as well. I would find this much more meaningful and pro-town than shady statistics. I don't know about everyone else here, but the numbers just don't mean anything to me without the context.

And Adel, I do appreciate your honesty, but I still don't find your tactics in any way helpful.

neko2086, you a harsh critic of Adel, as was I and others, but I don't understand how Adel's death validates any of her methods. You told Adel that if she wanted to be remembered in a good way she should provide context to her numbers. I don't think she ever did that. I think Adel's method was just as bogus now as they were then, regardless of how confident she was.

[hasdgfas]

neko2086, you a harsh critic of Adel, as was I and others, but I don't understand how Adel's death validates any of her methods. You told Adel that if she wanted to be remembered in a good way she should provide context to her numbers. I don't think she ever did that. I think Adel's method was just as bogus now as they were then, regardless of how confident she was.

QFT

[Elias_the_thief]

I dropped the hammer on Adel, because all of her (I guess) posts seemed like noise, distraction. Then, the self-vote I truly thought was a way of getting one of you to remove your vote from a mafia member.

ok.

Adel also never answered any questions, s/he only tossed around more noise and seemed to muddy the game.

why didnt you pressure her for more info?

[Boggzie]

I dropped the hammer on Adel, because all of her (I guess) posts seemed like noise, distraction. Then, the self-vote I truly thought was a way of getting one of you to remove your vote from a mafia member.

ok.

Adel also never answered any questions, s/he only tossed around more noise and seemed to muddy the game.

why didnt you pressure her for more info?

No no no. There were two to three posts from Adel between my question, when s/he voted

it

self, and when I dropped the hammer.

Which I already explained

. see post 416

[neko2086]

Opie, that's exactly why I'm not ready to start voting you yet. I wish Adel would have qualified her numbers, and she didn't. I thought mcpaltp was scummy before and his actions now are only confirming that, so he's the only one of her conjectures I'm willing to follow right now. However, now that you are trying to defend him, I think that's reason to start suspecting you. Not nearly enough for a vote, no, but your voting patterns are suspect too. IGMEOY

I think the case against admiral is nothing but 'he's not posting enough.' Mcpaltp, you'd be "voting so hard" against me right now if it weren't for my voting for you already. You know it'd be an OMGUS vote. I can't wait to see what Bookitty and Boggzie are going to do