Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[Comparing Realities]

So, this makes Black look significantly better, and also makes Mas look marginally better themselves.

Starting an opposing wagon that flips town does not a scumbuddy make, even if Mas is scum themselves...

I think Black Star is good, agghh.

[Comparing Realities]

Also, are you guys never

off

the forums?

[BlackStar]

Also, are you guys never

off

the forums?

My classes this semester are ridiculously easy, so I have a lot of free time. I leave this site open on a tab on my phone and look at it while I do other stuff

[Comparing Realities]

The timer on the stimuli passed, and it never arrived.

I'm just going to state the obvious here, if you don't mind:

Why did rb die, and why is nobody interested in the fact that it was rb who died?

rb was not universally a townread. Not even close. He wasn't OVERTLY the best or the brightest person we have, the one closest to catching scum. So why did they kill him?
Because rb probably had the most accurate reads, simple. If nobody is talking about this, then it means scum isn't talking about this, which means scum isn't trying to do WIFOM here. They killed rb because it was the best person to kill, full stop. Therefore, rb's reads can be presumed to be relatively accurate at the time of his death.

[Comparing Realities]

Could someone please remind me what his reads were?

UNVOTE: Black Star

[Gamma Emerald]

I chacked: I don't think he had any concrete reads that actually carried(the only one I saw was xyzzy being scum with key, and key flipped town.)

[BlackStar]

he voted mas and xyzzy

[Alchemist21]

^ Posted too early on mistake, ignore.

Alright, there are three possibilities that just happened here, given the following constraints:

A) Black claims to have not known this was purely vanilla
B) Gamma was the one who responded to Black, giving Black's claims credit
C) Gamma does not believe that this is a thing that "scum would not do"

Which raises the following possibilities:

1) Black is scum who genuinely did not know this was purely vanilla. Unlikely; PRs would undoubtedly be a topic of conversation during the night. This would mean that both Black and his partner did not read the first post, which is terribly unlikely.

10%

2) Black is scum who knew this was purely vanilla, but fabricated this as a townslip. His partner would necessarily be Gamma, and they orchestrated this. (Partner doesn't have to be Gamma, but it's the most likely explanation. It feels awfully coordinated.) The initial interaction does feel a bit too peppy, almost cheeky; the same person who sarcastically posted a gif of a guy bleating "ANOTHER ONE" is also the guy now giving off an innocent air of "Hmm, Really? Didn't know that. Huh." But then Gamma tried to shoot down xyzzy's assertion that this was a townslip, and I also just remember that they hate eachother. So this is unliekly, also.
...Then again, today

is

the day for bussing, and neither are off-the-rails amped for the death of the other...

20%

3) Black is town who genuinely did not know this was purely vanilla.

70%

For scenario 2, what would be the probability that Black Star is scum, gamma is Town scumreading him for that, and Xyzzy is the scumbuddy trying to cover for Black Star?

[xyzzy]

I generally doubt that things are that simple w/r/t night kills, Comparing Realities; while it's certainly possible that the whole thing was just an effort to eliminate the person who suspected then most, guessing what that reasoning might be is just that—a guess.

like, here's a few more possibilities: 1)scum were specifically trying to set up lynches on town players who rb was town reading who he might get in the way of lynching, 2)scum were trying to eliminate someone who wasn't as universally town read to cast suspicion on someone who everyone sees as town, 3)scum picked someone basically at random so that reasoning through why rb was chosen would lead to false conclusions, 4)some kind of setup-based gambit that is impossible for us to guess, 5)scum specifically wants us to look at rb's reads and derive bad info from them.

while it's certainly plausible that scum simply picked someone who was scum reading them (and perhaps even the most likely option), I think it's a mistake to just assume that that's the case.

[BlackStar]

^ Posted too early on mistake, ignore.

Alright, there are three possibilities that just happened here, given the following constraints:

A) Black claims to have not known this was purely vanilla
B) Gamma was the one who responded to Black, giving Black's claims credit
C) Gamma does not believe that this is a thing that "scum would not do"

Which raises the following possibilities:

1) Black is scum who genuinely did not know this was purely vanilla. Unlikely; PRs would undoubtedly be a topic of conversation during the night. This would mean that both Black and his partner did not read the first post, which is terribly unlikely.

10%

2) Black is scum who knew this was purely vanilla, but fabricated this as a townslip. His partner would necessarily be Gamma, and they orchestrated this. (Partner doesn't have to be Gamma, but it's the most likely explanation. It feels awfully coordinated.) The initial interaction does feel a bit too peppy, almost cheeky; the same person who sarcastically posted a gif of a guy bleating "ANOTHER ONE" is also the guy now giving off an innocent air of "Hmm, Really? Didn't know that. Huh." But then Gamma tried to shoot down xyzzy's assertion that this was a townslip, and I also just remember that they hate eachother. So this is unliekly, also.
...Then again, today

is

the day for bussing, and neither are off-the-rails amped for the death of the other...

20%

3) Black is town who genuinely did not know this was purely vanilla.

70%

For scenario 2, what would be the probability that Black Star is scum, gamma is Town scumreading him for that, and Xyzzy is the scumbuddy trying to cover for Black Star?

0%

[BlackStar]

I'm starting to think that alchemist isn't scum and he's just bad town that's locked in a death tunnel

[Alchemist21]

The timer on the stimuli passed, and it never arrived.

I'm just going to state the obvious here, if you don't mind:

Why did rb die, and why is nobody interested in the fact that it was rb who died?

rb was not universally a townread. Not even close. He wasn't OVERTLY the best or the brightest person we have, the one closest to catching scum. So why did they kill him?
Because rb probably had the most accurate reads, simple. If nobody is talking about this, then it means scum isn't talking about this, which means scum isn't trying to do WIFOM here. They killed rb because it was the best person to kill, full stop. Therefore, rb's reads can be presumed to be relatively accurate at the time of his death.

I was thinking about this earlier today and thought this at first too, so I looked back at RB's posts, but he was uncertain of a lot of his reads. He's highly unlikely these uncertain reads are why he died. While he wasn't a universal Townread, nobody was strongly suspecting him either. Also, despite being dead he's still got the 4th highest post count, which shows just how active he was. So, I think rb was killed because:

1.)He was active.
2.)He wasn't likely to be lynched anytime soon.

[Gamma Emerald]

Hm, I never noticed that. Alchemist just did good.

[Comparing Realities]

Hm, I never noticed that. Alchemist just did good.

Why do you praise alchemist, but not xyzzy?

[Gamma Emerald]

Because the reason I was scumreading Alchemist is because he hadn't posted anything that felt like it was presenting a new take on anything. I'm actually scumreading him a little less now.
@xyzzy: Do you mind if I change my reads?

[BTD6_maker]

What is better today, lynching Town or scum? Lynching scum is usually better for us, though it doesn't matter. If lynching scum is better, it is better to lynch our top scumread today. If not lynching scum is better, the ideal lynch would be the Towniest person. (This is probably not the case). My point is, in either case lynching the second scummiest is suboptimal. We should lynch the scummiest.

VOTE: Alchemist21

This is the person in the most scum lists.

[BTD6_maker]

Sorry for not posting that much. I have been very busy. Things should clear up fairly soon.

[Gamma Emerald]

Um. BTD6, YOU are the most townread. Are you truly willing to sacrifice yourself for the good of the town?

[BTD6_maker]

It is

possible

that lynching the Towniest is best, but highly unlikely. Lynchhing Town gives us a 40% win rate. Lynching scum gives us a 46.7% win rate. Thus it is generally better to lynch scum. That was just to show that the second scummiest is suboptimal no matter what.

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay. I think lynching the towniest person is a

very

bad move.

[Mas y Menos]

Gamma and XYZ final answers.
I think Mcmenno didn't like CR or something don't remember.
I don't think he had Blackstar as strong town as me.

I am ready to get hammered now.
I don't care about this game anymore.

~Mas Y

[Mas y Menos]

I don't care about this game anymore.

To expand on this, I don't want this seen as "AtE"
I just don't see us moving anywhere productive at all and most of the peoples assumptions especially Comparing Realities I don't think helps this game.

Lynch me and hopefully you can figure out who is scum tomorrow.
We only need to be right tomorrow and with 5 alive tomorrow and 2 of them scum its easier to PoE scum.

Analyze wagons and stuff.

I would hammer myself to give you all a better chance, but not going to do a key.

I still think those two mentioned above should be PoE.

~Mas Y.

Please do hammer though.

[Gamma Emerald]

Mas, the main problem with key's self hammer was we still had time to discuss things. If you don't think the rest of Day 2 will be productive, then it's not the same.

[Mas y Menos]

Just because I don't think the day is being productive doesn't mean I should self hammer and deprive the town of options.
If town wants to go around and circles jerking it off, do it.

I am amazed thats the one thing you picked up on and called out.

~Mas Y

[Gamma Emerald]

Well I would like to know your third scumread. I assume it is not BlackStar, because you said "not

as

strong town".