Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[Transcend]

I love you outside of the game but inside of this game you're genuinely ticking me off.

Pedit: fine give me some time to exert even MORE effort than i already have.

Alternatively you can make both of our lives easier by trusting your initial thoughts, not making me do all that fucking work, voting mhsmith, and winning the game as either faction.

But if that doesn't appease you then i need more time because the content i have was basically my pique.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

let's take our time then for everyone's sake

[mhsmith0]

let's take our time then for everyone's sake

Sure.

[mhsmith0]

I love you outside of the game but inside of this game you're genuinely ticking me off.

Pedit: fine give me some time to exert even MORE effort than i already have.

Alternatively you can make both of our lives easier by trusting your initial thoughts, not making me do all that fucking work, voting mhsmith, and winning the game as either faction.

But if that doesn't appease you then i need more time because the content i have was basically my pique.

If you're that sure it should be me, then why haven't you voted me? "Vote Smith for a free win" is such a weird thing to be saying when you're not actually voting. Like, if you're that potentially willing to let wolf!giga get a free win, it's strange for you to be asking for a vote on me instead of actually voting on me. Or do you actually have doubts on giga that you want to talk through?

[Transcend]

Oh yeah amazing.

Impossible for mhsmith to be scum that killed the ira slot that was ready to lynch him. Do you not realize how easy this lylo was for him to set up? You and thor voted tenshii like a walk in the park. I fought like hell against that. That was a super easy mislynch for mhsmith to achieve.

Don't you think I'd do something like

Off giga let ira mislynch the shit out of smith

Off ira. Me thor tenshii cake walk scum win.

You're not considering all the options

And i want you to know i map out every scum game i make.

So if ira looks like a scum kill on my behalf when it would've been a cinch to get smith lynched that way and not this way along with a super easy 3 way, idk what to say yo.

[mhsmith0]

I'd say that given the fact that there was substantial discussion about the n3 kill motive, you could plausibly make the N4 shot on Ira in order to line up a mislynch on me (though I'd say the same about giga for that particular shot). I'd certainly agree that the N4 shot was plausible by me, but I'd still say that it's simply not what I'd normally do. But IMO the N3 and N5 shots are much more clearing for me; killing Io (who town read me) instead of Thor (the stronger player, and someone who was very checked into the game) simply isn't what I'd want to do in that spot, and WIFOM kills aren't normally my thing at all.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Off giga let ira mislynch the shit out of smith

Off ira. Me thor tenshii cake walk scum win.

hm.

What about Io though? Like I guess if you were scum then you have been setting up a Mhsmith mislynch since D2, but I thought that Luna and Rosske were supposed to be the mislynches if you were scum. The whole replace-out thing would have ruined that and force you to shit gears (like you said, you map out your games). And, also, the fact that you were defending Tenshii so hard makes me think that you were planning out a Tenshii/Thor/You LYLO in the end...

I'm going to take a look at what Wing said against Mhsmith really quickly and post it here for posterity.

[mhsmith0]

As far as trans/giga kill motive goes, N3 is EASILY something that works for transcend, to get rid of Io and clear the way for an eventual Rosske mislynch, and removing his defender means you don't have to get your hands as dirty to make it happen (though giga picking up on this and helping it along is plausible too)

N4 could be anyone, frankly; a setup kill helps explain why giga is still alive going forward if they're the last goon, and obviously it helps along trans's push on me if he's the wolf instead.

N5 is a really strange kill for me in that spot, though I suppose if you want to argue that I'm doing WIFOM kills, then in for a dime, in for a dollar. But I have good odds to survive a F3 of me/trans/thor; that's basically a three-way situation where everyone suspects everyone else, and thor voting trans or trans voting thor is VERY possible right off the bat.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Based on Karnos interactions, the fact that Karnos tried to bait Kcdaspot into hammering him (Post 231) points somewhat strongly to mhsmith being scum. Why ask a townie with a short fuse and an erratic playstyle to hammer? Kcdaspot might as well have hammered there for all Karnos knew. Then Karnos puts Kcdaspot in his scumreads along with Thor and Io. Fits with his bussing meta and also, he spent a LOT of time arguing with Thor and Io but in Post 386, kcdaspot and Io are his top scumreads with Thor as a lighter scumread.

Interaction with Rosske in Post 506 is actually the exact same thing Karnos did with me in Mini 1800 when I misread him which might point slightly towards Rosske as town.

The more I think about it, the more I'm feeling decently confident it's actually mhsmith.

I'm not going to re-read a 200 page-long ISO but key points that stuck out to me:

1) Mhsmith's case and jump onto Karnos is the only one out of everyone here that makes sense as a smooth hop onto a bus wagon. Everyone else has interactions that stick out in a way that is unlikely to be bussing (except Rosske but he has the nightkill going for him).

2) Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing.

3) Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim.

4) Mhsmith's subtle push on Transcend after I outlined suspicion of him without explicitly agreeing with me and using information he had for months is a scummy positioning move.

VOTE: Mhsmith

This is who I think will slip scum. There's no real reason I can find to townread him other than lots of effort but that's something I could see him doing as scum given how thorough and focused and determined to win he is in his other games regardless of alignment. I could see him kill outside Thor for the WIFOM and chaos.

will look these posts over later when my head is clearer.

[Transcend]

Giga wanted to lynch tenshii over the Rosske slot. If i were scum, how the fuck would i be able to get him to lynch you over tenshii. Having ira ml you would be miles easier.

Pedit: io had me as town as well. I was expecting a thor death that night but someone tactically kept thor alive.

[mhsmith0]

Don't you think I'd do something like

Off giga let ira mislynch the shit out of smith

Off ira. Me thor tenshii cake walk scum win.

You're not considering all the options

That's a plausible path too. But ira's case on me was always weak, and I'd already pushed back against it, and would be comfortable continuing to push back against it if needed. Killing off someone who is pushing me with a mediocre case, though, posthumously validates the case without having to worry about the actual quality of the case being made. It's an easy kill for anyone who wants me to get mislynched, and it's consistent with your push at the time. It's also plausibly consistent with giga's waffling, I suppose, if they just want to make setup kills to keep town's attention elsewhere and have the opportunity to coast without much scrutiny, but I think that's a bit less likely.

[mhsmith0]

wrt 1991, it wasn't actually a potential hammer, karnos was at like L-2 or L-3 at the time. I'd theoretically agree that hammering for town credit and to cut off discussion might have been a strategy there, but that would require karnos to have no clue about the number of votes on him, which is just bizarre for a wolf to be doing.

It is also NOT consistent with karnos's bussing meta; when karnos busses, he BUSSES, see the links I'd shown earlier. Karnos's interaction with buddies seems to basically be zero or bussing (or interacting with one buddy about the bus of another).

wrt 1992, see my immediate response in 1993, 1994, and later discussion in 2026, 2029, etc.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

wrt 1991, it wasn't actually a potential hammer, karnos was at like L-2 or L-3 at the time. I'd theoretically agree that hammering for town credit and to cut off discussion might have been a strategy there, but that would require karnos to have no clue about the number of votes on him, which is just bizarre for a wolf to be doing.

It is also NOT consistent with karnos's bussing meta; when karnos busses, he BUSSES, see the links I'd shown earlier. Karnos's interaction with buddies seems to basically be zero or bussing (or interacting with one buddy about the bus of another).

wrt 1992, see my immediate response in 1993, 1994, and later discussion in 2026, 2029, etc.

noted

[Transcend]

Falcon had some good posts and i almost compromised with him to lynch smith. I kinda wish i did, but the Rosske slot needed death.

[mhsmith0]

Day 4
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p8238379

Trans
1614 - opens D4 with a rosske kill after rosske's biggest defender (Io) dies
1651 - decent post, is actually trying to push for rosske lynch
1734 - notable about this point is that it applies to transcend as well; could very easily be an active defense of tenshii that is acutally just trying to defend his own actions. the flip side though is that if trans was town, he could simply be honestly seeing tenshii as doing the same thing he did, and then simply assuming that it was legitimate
1810 - interesting case from wing on trans
1821 - decent post, but defensive in nature
1903-4 is about as villagery as trans got this game I think, ditto 1906
1925 - at first glance shows actual thought. that said, it's fence-sitting wrt thor, and the reasoning behind rosske's votes being scummy...
Thor D1 - "gut" is lazy but not necessarily opportunistic
KTS D1 - "The reason escapes me why either of them voted KTS but memory serves that it was a bad vote" is a strange thing to lead into an argument about something being meaningfully indicative, especially in the context of what was represented as being a factual recounting of events. It's also odd that the whole KTS bit gets dismissed as null.
Io D1: here trans is really just arguing against the vote being meaningfully town-indicative, as opposed to arguing that it was actually wolf-indicative
D1 twilight: scum-reads for inactivity, possibly real but an easy thing to push on. And 'Regardless this aspect shouldn't be analyzed too much, but the fact he was not present for twilight is supporting my case even more. And him not also participating in twilight and his next vote are also reasons to support him as scum." is fence-sitty and wishy-washy.
KTS D2: it's a weak vote, but the rest of the discussion here is narrative
Trans D2: rosske really wasn't "hellbent" on a trans lynch D2
D3: here rosske did push harder on trans. but it wasn't a vote for "berating several people", it was "I know my alignment. Transcend is active lurking, discrediting and manipulating information." I would note that his blaming of trans for the KTS/PC lynches was inaccurate, but the rest of what rosske said wasn't necessarily inaccurate, notably "It seems like he has a tendacy to just put on blinders and push one specific person towards lynch. And then he covers up his blatant subversiveness with empty smokescreens of unfriendliness. We're meant to be too distracted by his negative tone to actually pay attention to his actions in this game."
2067 thor's point about trans continuing to change his stances appears valid - possible bad town, but also possible wolf just pretending to be bad town
2116 - likes tenshii's vote on me but thinks it's wrong
2125 - discrediting post against thor
2178 - trying to arrange a compromise lynch on me, odd given the hard scum read on maria, including at 2213
2294 - somewhat difficult post to make as a wolf
2301 - trans really didn't re-look at tenshii after maria's request




Giga
1644 - hops on board rosske too
1650 - switches to tenshii after the discussion about NK
1824 - substantive, though the focus on on defending their read on rosske
1852/4 - interesting, shows effort to actively meta read trans
1856 - fence-sitting post
1964/5 - wing makes a good point wrt giga, though giga's repsonse in 1971 eats away at most of the points
2137 - good response from giga to trans
2249 - obviously she's wrong about one of the two, but notable that she's stronger TR on giga than trans


D4 again looks townier from giga than trans. This one not a slam-dunk day, but that 1925 looks worse after really digging into it I think.

[mhsmith0]

i don't get how thor could possibly be scum here...

walk me through that... i would also like to know why iraon suspects you.

When Ira was NK'd, this question never got answered. It's conceivable that this was part of NK motive. It's more obvious from trans, but it's possible that giga simply wanted that to hang over things without really getting dealt with.

[mhsmith0]

Most people psychologically would say answer B but karnos was clearly ailing and hard defending him like I did would mean that I'd have to survive 5 lynches with that attached to me. I don't know how I would've played this as wolf but personally,

I feel like I would possibly softbus or ignore karnos if he was in deep shit as opposed to hard defending him.

That was sincerely just an error on my behalf for using falsified meta hence why I've been reluctant to trust any meta this game, because it f***ed me day 1.

This is actually a really interesting point, especially since for the most part on day 1 Transcend DID ignore karnos. He gave a pretty intellectually lazy town read, repeated it a few times, and then spent the bulk majority of his energy pursuing alternative lynches. So that seems to be reasonably in line with his own description of how he'd have approached the game. The "hard defense" bit differs, of course, but one of the interesting things about mafia is that if you can shut down the momentum against someone, you never know where town can end up pissing off to instead, and then you get a mislynch, and it becomes harder to figure out what's going on, and things go downhill from there.

[mhsmith0]

I don't think it's Transcend because the only reasons I scumread him is

lack of substantive reasons for pushes, filler posts, and trying to use fear as a defense

. But the former was townread by Thor, and the latter two was never brought up by anybody, so it's probably just a trivial point.

These are actually decent reasons, and the fact that no one brought it up makes it more rather than less suspicious (they're potentially easy things for wolves to attack).

[mhsmith0]

Day 5
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8297044

Trans
2362 - tentative vote on me, odd after the hard push on rosske/maria before. possible that this was a chastened trans after being wrong though.
2363 - follow up with a stronger take on it, a bit jarring in succession, though it's possible that this was a 15 minute rethink
2375 - discrediting post towards thor, tossing in an AtE bit about blowing 5 lynches
2413 - it's still kind of weird for transcend to do nothing to save karnos at 1.07. I guess it makes snese if he realized that Io was clear town and that saving his buddy there would look terrible going forward
2448-53 - fair points from thor. trans's reads this game have been bizarre and poorly supported. wouldn't go so far as to say "nonsense reads" but it's reasonable to slam him for them



Giga
2364 - interesting post given giga's later pivot to voting tenshii
2413 - that point about 588 still holds i think
2469 - really dislike this post, almost reads like they're looking for a guide to assign blame for NK's
2541 - ok defense there
2542 - Trans basically saying giga is mediocre as wolf ("fairly competent")
2599 - shows thought wrt thor (though it's a sheeped point by then). do dislike the "don't forget that I'm town too" implication of the post.


I'd actually say that Day 5 by itself doesn't strongly point to one over the other. Though the fact that thor and tenshii both seemed higher on giga being town than trans at least counts for something.

[Transcend]

these walls are terrible btw

[Transcend]

"this is why trans sucks" "this is why giga sucks" they both suck but trans sucks more

just a lot more fluffier

[mhsmith0]

what you call fluff i call content but sure

[Transcend]

cherry picking random posts saying "this sucks" maybe going a bit more in depth lol

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i like mhsmith's walls

maybe because i'm supposed to the "giga sucks less" idea could be getting me to vote transcend first... i have to be better at identifying when i'm actually being manipulated.

[Transcend]

and this isn't just today you've been doing this.

you have walled nearly every player in the entire game making some sort of a case on them.

like i do not remember you walling rosske at all. forgive me if wrong it escapes my memory and i'm not reading your iso.

you walled tenshii quite a bit honestly.

yet your final vote on that day?

YOU FUCKING VOTED ROSSKE over TENSHII.

Oh but let's not forget about the time Wing voted me for two seconds then you hopped along

Then wing was like lol no and unvoted and you did not long afterwards

And then I said my case on Rosske and you laughed it off pretty hard, mocked me, berated me then you lynched the same person.

Your walls have been nothing but clumps of random posts and you've been happy to lynch someone you didn't wall.