Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[xyzzy]

I'd say it's probably best to not explicitly state how your reads have changed until there's been a couple of shifts—otherwise it's fairly easy to tell which people in your reads list are actually near the middle of the list.

in general it's safe to assume that the person who is perceived as the most scummy has a higher chance of actually being scum; assuming that we lynch both of those players over the course of the next two days, it's better to lynch the scummiest person tomorrow, since that increases the odds that we simply win tomorrow.

[Mas y Menos]

I still think XYZ is really really scummy.
I don't know if its just bias.

I really thought the game was Key and XYZ.

BTW again, fuck that self hammer when we had more than 10 days left.

~Mas Y

[Mas y Menos]

This is what I likely think it is in:

Gamma Emerald/XYZ
Gamma Emerald/Comparing Realities
Comparing Realities/Gamma Emerald
Comparing Realities/XYZ

I think its one of those 4 pairs.
Really really unsure which.

I am pretty conf on Alchemist and Blackstar.
Pretty sure BTD6 is also town.

~Mas Y

[Gamma Emerald]

Hey, looks like they removed shoes from the menu. But seriously, I don't really regret that lynch. He was a liability and he would have distracted us from actually decent scumhunting.

[Mas y Menos]

VOTE: Comparing Realities

Right now I like this more than XYZ though.

~Mas Y

[Gamma Emerald]

This is what I likely think it is in:

Gamma Emerald/XYZ
Gamma Emerald/Comparing Realities
Comparing Realities/Gamma Emerald
Comparing Realities/XYZ

I think its one of those 4 pairs.
Really really unsure which.

I am pretty conf on Alchemist and Blackstar.
Pretty sure BTD6 is also town.

~Mas Y

You repeated me and CR.

[Mas y Menos]

Then I guess its just those 3 pairs.

~Mas Y

[Alchemist21]

I don't really like xyzzy's plan. If we lynch scum today we get an extra day to find the partner, and if we lynch wrong today, tomorrow will be lylo and people will mostly be biased towards that common scumread, which if wrong will cost us the game.

It's possible Xyzzy is scum, but I'm more uneasy about Black Star right now. His responses to my questions at the end of the day yesterday felt dodgy when he was giving them, and the more I think about it the more I feel uneasy about him. He was also quick to assume I was scumreading him when I still wasn't, so I think he was nervous about being suspected.

VOTE: Black Star

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Comparing Realities

Right now I like this more than XYZ though.

~Mas Y

CR unvoted you when you were at L-1. I don't think scum would have ever done that.

[Mas y Menos]

Whats your thoughts on Gamma and CR?

I really thought black star was town yesterday. not feeling same there buddy

~Mas Y

[BlackStar]

@Alchemist

There was nothing dodgy about it. In fact, you even said that my reasoning was understandable. Its kind of interesting that you voted me because I just came to the conclusion that the most likely scum team is you and Gamma.

VOTE: Gamma

[xyzzy]

that's a fair critique of it—it is a pretty fragile plan where things can go wrong. however, I feel like the likelihood of town winning at 2:3 lylo are much, much better than the odds of town winning at 1:2; technically, when you factor in the odds of lynching scum on days 2 and 4, our odds are marginally better when we lynch scum day 2, but the complexities involved in scum coordinating a lynch at 2:3 are pretty substantial. it's way easier for scum to just hammer at 1:2 and win.

[xyzzy]

I meant to quote 407 there in case it's not clear what that's a reply to

[BlackStar]

Gamma votes for Key here.

Okay.
VOTE: key

L-1

And then he posts his reads list here.

Reads:
Town: CR, rb
Null: BTD6, BlackStar, Mas
Scum: key, xyzzy, Alchemist

Key isn't at the bottom of his list, Achemist is. So if Alchemist is his strongest scum read, why didn't he vote for him? In fact he never even explained that read at all.

I still think key is scum, but I think my vote is best applied elsewhere.
UNVOTE:

And then we have this god awful post. "I scum read someone who is at L-1, but I'm going to hop off their wagon." It still makes absolutely no sense to me and I don't know why we let him get away with this.

Actually, I have an idea where to go.
VOTE: xyzzy
Multiple people have connected you to key. What do you have to say about that?

He's still not voting for his top scum read, Alchemist. And Xyzzy was was close to the bottom of his list before. That means that theoretically, he should've had some reasons for having xyzzy near the bottom of his list. If he was already scum reading xyzzy before then why does he act like he's only voting him because other people have connected him to Key? Better yet, why doesn't he just go back to voting for Key?

So yeah, the only reason I can see for Gamma having alchemist at the bottom of his reads list and never voting for or talking about him is that they're scum buddies together

[Mas y Menos]

Based on the setup itself this is really the day for scum to buss guys.
I don't know if that was pointed out really either.

~Mas Y

[Gamma Emerald]

@BlackStar: I randomized my list. If I wanted to quantify I would have explained them.

[BlackStar]

@BlackStar: I randomized my list. If I wanted to quantify I would have explained them.

It's interesting that you never told us before that it was randomized. Its also interesting that you didn't explain ANY of those reads.

[Gamma Emerald]

Because that was the plan, to deprive the scum of information needed to rig the lynch.

[BlackStar]

I don't believe you. And townies don't want to deprive other townies of potentially helpful information

[Gamma Emerald]

Well I'm sorry but that's how I played.

[Alchemist21]

Whats your thoughts on Gamma and CR?

I really thought black star was town yesterday. not feeling same there buddy

~Mas Y

Gamma was the other one who unvoted at L-1, on a slot we now know is Town.

Makes them both strong Townreads to me.

[Alchemist21]

@Alchemist

There was nothing dodgy about it. In fact, you even said that my reasoning was understandable. Its kind of interesting that you voted me because I just came to the conclusion that the most likely scum team is you and Gamma.

VOTE: Gamma

Yes, but then 390 made my skin crawl when it happened, and then the two posts after that were lackluster or void of explanation, and all that together is what seems so dodgy.

[BlackStar]

@Alchemist

There was nothing dodgy about it. In fact, you even said that my reasoning was understandable. Its kind of interesting that you voted me because I just came to the conclusion that the most likely scum team is you and Gamma.

VOTE: Gamma

Yes, but then 390 made my skin crawl when it happened, and then the two posts after that were lackluster or void of explanation, and all that together is what seems so dodgy.

I don't see how that could make your skin crawl lol

[xyzzy]

hey, people who aren't Alchemist21: what do you think of the plan I proposed in 398?

[BlackStar]

hey, people who aren't Alchemist21: what do you think of the plan I proposed in 398?

I don't really get it