Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Oman]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #57

Oman[1](pwayne66)
Trojan Horse[1](Oman)


Not Voting[4](vollkan, Tarhalindur, Trojan Horse, theopor_COD)

Hmm troj is attaacking me (the group's target) and theo (absent) how interesting.

[vollkan]

Hmm troj is attaacking me (the group's target) and theo (absent) how interesting.

You made me think of something, well two things:
1) @TH, you just made a post in which you declared Oman's actions to be "reasonable", with the obvious exception of the hammer which you (rightly) questioned. And yet, you have now moved towards again indicating you are suspicious of Oman and theo. The only intermittent change I can see is that Tar also expressed suspicion of Oman (going with the group perhaps?). If Oman's actions were "reasonable" what makes him still seem to be your prime suspect?
2) @TH again:
a) What has made you think it likely that theo is scum? In your last scumdar you had him ranked equal with Pwayne and myself and you have made no intermittent remarks which make him seem more likely scum.
b) Furthermore, what is the basis for the "Oman/theo" connexion?

[Oman]

Unvote Vote Trojan Horse

I didn't remember him listing theo down so low, that is definatly worthy of a vote.

[vollkan]

You were already voting for him.

But yes, arbitrary changes in suspicion on that scale are definitely odd.

[Oman]

gah, i knew it. I need to check my votes.

[Guardian]

MoS replaces theopor_COD. Thank him and welcome him (back)!

[vollkan]

Yay! We have full participation again. Thanks MoS.

[pwayne66]

Thanks MoS!

[Trojan Horse]

I don't mind saying that I'm liking possibility #3 more and more...

Did I miss a post where you explained this being likely?

You didn't miss anything. I'll explain below.

1) @TH, you just made a post in which you declared Oman's actions to be "reasonable", with the obvious exception of the hammer which you (rightly) questioned. And yet, you have now moved towards again indicating you are suspicious of Oman and theo. The only intermittent change I can see is that Tar also expressed suspicion of Oman (going with the group perhaps?). If Oman's actions were "reasonable" what makes him still seem to be your prime suspect?

I guess I'm in the same boat as pwayne here. It's process of elimination. You saw my PBPA of you, vollkan; I haven't seen anything scummy from you yet. (I have doubts about my scumdar, but that's unavoidable.) Tar is either townie, cultie, or an extremely brazen scum (last one not likely, IMO). So that just leaves Oman, pwayne, and theo/MoS. And while Oman has only been of average scumminess so far (IMO), average scumminess puts him at the top right now. I'm going back and forth between Oman-pwayne and Oman-theo/MoS.

2) @TH again:
a) What has made you think it likely that theo is scum? In your last scumdar you had him ranked equal with Pwayne and myself and you have made no intermittent remarks which make him seem more likely scum.
b) Furthermore, what is the basis for the "Oman/theo" connexion?

Some recent thoughts (which I hadn't yet mentioned): Oman had small disputes with both theo and pwayne during day 1. He voted for each of them at some point. But if I recall correctly, Oman's dispute with theo was relatively early in the day, and nothing much came of it (no major bandwagon). But Oman's dispute with pwayne was near the end of the day, and at the time, it looked like pwayne might actually be the lynch. Oman pushed for his scummate's lynch during day 1, when there were other bandwagons (Kakeng, for one) to push for? Risky. Maybe too risky. So I can't help but think that it's Oman-theo.

One other thing I should mention: my thoughts on who the vig might be are also coming into play here. If I think someone is likely to be the vig, I naturally won't think that person is likely to be scum. So as not to help the scum, I won't say WHO I think the vig is. Just so you know that I'm thinking about it.

(Of course, I could be the vig myself, and perhaps I'm just trying to confuse the scum. You never know, you scumzorz! )

[Mastermind of Sin]

Good thing I didn't think Theo was that scummy in my past life (that I can remember), or I'd really have to recalibrate my scumdar for this game.

Here is what I remember (not including this day):

Oman - VERY scummy. I can't believe he's not dead yet (almost).
vollkan - probably not scum. However, I can't believe the scum haven't killed him yet, when I think about it.
Tarhalindur (r. Dr. Blackstrike) - in the middle, too much WIFOM surrounding him.
pwayne66 - probably oman's scumpartner
Trojan Horse - in the middle, leaning scum if I'm wrong about my top two suspects.

So I'm not *really* sure about anyone right now.

That being said, the reason Oman shouldn't be dead yet is that with 6 people alive, and 2 mafia left, our best option is clearly to no lynch. If we lynch today, we have to lynch correctly. If we no lynch, the mafia eliminates a suspect for us, and we have a better chance of lynching scum the next day. This also gives our power roles (if we have any left) a chance to act once more without pressure of losing the game right away. With the cult leader eliminated, time is on our side. We need to no lynch today to improve our chances of beating the mafia.

Vote: No Lynch

[Trojan Horse]

You're forgetting the vig, MoS. We have TWO chances to nail our first scum; the lynch today, and the vig kill tonight. If we no lynch, we lose one of those chances.

No lynch is a BAD IDEA.

[Tarhalindur]

Good thing I didn't think Theo was that scummy in my past life (that I can remember), or I'd really have to recalibrate my scumdar for this game.

Here is what I remember (not including this day):

Oman - VERY scummy. I can't believe he's not dead yet (almost).
vollkan - probably not scum. However, I can't believe the scum haven't killed him yet, when I think about it.
Tarhalindur (r. Dr. Blackstrike) - in the middle, too much WIFOM surrounding him.
pwayne66 - probably oman's scumpartner
Trojan Horse - in the middle, leaning scum if I'm wrong about my top two suspects.

So I'm not *really* sure about anyone right now.

That being said, the reason Oman shouldn't be dead yet is that with 6 people alive, and 2 mafia left, our best option is clearly to no lynch. If we lynch today, we have to lynch correctly. If we no lynch, the mafia eliminates a suspect for us, and we have a better chance of lynching scum the next day. This also gives our power roles (if we have any left) a chance to act once more without pressure of losing the game right away. With the cult leader eliminated, time is on our side. We need to no lynch today to improve our chances of beating the mafia.

Vote: No Lynch

Ordinarily, this would be true, but as multiple people pointed out to me earlier the extra NK (which almost certainly implies vig) means that we are, in fact, not at LyLo per se, and fourthermore I suspect that your plan actually decreases our chance at winning (need to crunch the numbers to be sure, but initial analysis suggests that numbers - as in "living pro-town players" - are better for us than time at the moment).

I want to see more of your comments on the game, MoS. I had no read on your predecessor (which effectively translates to "you are moderately scummy" in this situation), and this post (pushing a plan that may well be anti-town, which is very unusual coming from you) suggests that your alignment this time may well be the opposite of your alignment when you died.

[vollkan]

I guess I'm in the same boat as pwayne here. It's process of elimination. You saw my PBPA of you, vollkan; I haven't seen anything scummy from you yet. (I have doubts about my scumdar, but that's unavoidable.) Tar is either townie, cultie, or an extremely brazen scum (last one not likely, IMO). So that just leaves Oman, pwayne, and theo/MoS. And while Oman has only been of average scumminess so far (IMO), average scumminess puts him at the top right now. I'm going back and forth between Oman-pwayne and Oman-theo/MoS.

Ah okay, you are using a process of elimination. It's not a method I like (as you can tell from my criticising Pwayne for making a vote based on elimination), but it explains your suspicion at least.

One other thing I should mention: my thoughts on who the vig might be are also coming into play here. If I think someone is likely to be the vig, I naturally won't think that person is likely to be scum. So as not to help the scum, I won't say WHO I think the vig is. Just so you know that I'm thinking about it.

You should be thinking about it, definitely, but yes, say nothing.

That being said, the reason Oman shouldn't be dead yet is that with 6 people alive, and 2 mafia left, our best option is clearly to no lynch. If we lynch today, we have to lynch correctly. If we no lynch, the mafia eliminates a suspect for us, and we have a better chance of lynching scum the next day. This also gives our power roles (if we have any left) a chance to act once more without pressure of losing the game right away. With the cult leader eliminated, time is on our side. We need to no lynch today to improve our chances of beating the mafia.

Vote: No Lynch

I crunched the numbers a few pages ago:

Mislynch

Mislynch = 2:2:1.
MafNK town = 1:2:1 (Tar cannot win here, because it goes NL, mafia NKs town and D4 opens at either 0:2:1 or 0:1:1 (if vig was the town) causing the mafia to win)
--VigNK mafia = 1:1:1
--VigNK Tar = 1:2:0 Mafia win
MafNK Tar = 2:2:0
--Vig NK town = 1:2:0 Mafia win
--Vig NK Mafia = 2:1:0

Mafia Lynch

Maflynch = 3:1:1
MafNK town = 2:1:1
--Vig NK town = 1:1:1
--Vig NK mafia = 2:0:1 Town win
--Vig NK Tar = 2:1:0
MafNK Tar = 3:1:0
--Vig NK town = 2:1:0
--Vig NK mafia = 3:0:0 Town win

No Lynch

No Lynch = 3:2:1
MafNK town = 2:2:1 (MafLynch on D4 makes it 2:1:1, mafNK town makesit 1:1:1)
--Vig NK town = 1:2:1
--Vig NK mafia = 2:1:1
--Vig NK Tar = 2:2:0
Maf NK Tar = 3:2:0
--Vig NK town = 2:2:0
--Vig NK mafia = 3:1:0

Now, obviously our situation is not true LYLO. Even on a mislynch, we can still win, but it requires a successful vigging, which is a very dire gamble. Obviously, mafia lynch is the best outcome.

As for no lynch: The best possible scenario to result is 3:1:0, where the mafia target a recruit and where the vig hits mafia successfully. However, with 5 potential targets, there is a 3/5 chance on pure probability that the vig will fail, in which case we will likely end up without a majority (unless vig and mafia target the same person obviously).

MoS has much more experience in this than I do, but I wonder whether the knowledge of just one player's alignment (assuming the vig abstains on the risk) is going to be worth putting ourselves in a situation of 3:2 or 2:2:1?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Out of curiousity, why do all those stats have a "NK tar" option as separate from everything else?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ordinarily, this would be true, but as multiple people pointed out to me earlier the extra NK (which almost certainly implies vig) means that we are, in fact, not at LyLo per se, and fourthermore I suspect that your plan actually decreases our chance at winning (need to crunch the numbers to be sure, but initial analysis suggests that numbers - as in "living pro-town players" - are better for us than time at the moment).

The vig kill is a horrible crutch to depend on for winning the game. If we lynch today, the vig only had a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight. I don't want the vig to kill anymore. I would rather depend on lynches and the input of all the players living to decide our lynches than depend on one player's opinion (even mine) to win the game for us.

I want to see more of your comments on the game, MoS. I had no read on your predecessor (which effectively translates to "you are moderately scummy" in this situation), and this post (pushing a plan that may well be anti-town, which is very unusual coming from you) suggests that your alignment this time may well be the opposite of your alignment when you died.

I will always push no lynch in a situation where mislynching gives the mafia an advantage of numbers the next day and no lynching gives us another lynch with less people alive.

I'll comment on the game when I have time. I haven't read anything from this day yet, so it seems odd that you would imply that I'm scummy for making the no lynch suggestion when the numbers are in our favor.

FoS: Tar

You definitely just rose on my suspicion list.

[vollkan]

I was addressing a post by Oman where he was wondering how things work if Tar is cultist:

Hold on.

1:2:2 (is this right?)

NL
Vig/mafia cross-Kill: 1:1:1 Tar would claim and win regardless.

You're right 1 No Lynch and Tar wins.

I'm not sure who I feel happy lynching today. It would suck to lose this today or tonight.

Obviously, the "Tar" in my analysis can be just substitute for generic "cultist", but in the context I was looking at Tar.

[Trojan Horse]

The vig kill is a horrible crutch to depend on for winning the game. If we lynch today, the vig only had a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight. I don't want the vig to kill anymore. I would rather depend on lynches and the input of all the players living to decide our lynches than depend on one player's opinion (even mine) to win the game for us.

...

I'll comment on the game when I have time. I haven't read anything from this day yet, so it seems odd that you would imply that I'm scummy for making the no lynch suggestion when the numbers are in our favor.

I think having a lynch and a vig kill as chances for hitting a scum is preferable to having just a lynch. And "just a lynch" is what we'll have if we no lynch today (assuming the vig does not kill tonight).

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

Take some time to think about it, MoS. This is an unusual situation. No lynch is a bad idea.

[Trojan Horse]

Also, before we lynch someone, we can always publicly discuss who the vig should kill the following night. That way the vig kill isn't dependent on "one person's opinion" (unless the vig decides to go against the crowd).

[vollkan]

The vig kill is a horrible crutch to depend on for winning the game. If we lynch today, the vig only had a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight. I don't want the vig to kill anymore. I would rather depend on lynches and the input of all the players living to decide our lynches than depend on one player's opinion (even mine) to win the game for us.

Hmm. You are talking about a mislynch I assume, since the probability is only 50% where there are two scum. In the event of a mislynch, if the vig does not NK we have 2 scum and 2 non-scum, meaning that we have no hope of lynching mafia. If the vig succeeds, our situation is still only 2:1 or 1:1:1, both of which are worse for us than having no lynch and no vig.

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

As I have said,
Mislynch = 3:2 (that's non-mafia : mafia, obviously there can be a cultist.)
MafNK = 2:2
VigNK = 2:1 (good) or 1:2 (loss)

If we no lynch and no vig, we end up at 3:2. I severely doubt that 2:1 is better than 3:2 at all, yet alone when it carries the risk of a 1:2 loss.

Also, before we lynch someone, we can always publicly discuss who the vig should kill the following night. That way the vig kill isn't dependent on "one person's opinion" (unless the vig decides to go against the crowd).

We faced a similar situation in another game I was in. I was adamantly against any sort of directing, but the compromise we reached was that each player listed four preferential candidates. On the numbers here, though, vigging seems insensible.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I think having a lynch and a vig kill as chances for hitting a scum is preferable to having just a lynch. And "just a lynch" is what we'll have if we no lynch today (assuming the vig does not kill tonight).

You're wrong. Even if we no lynch today, and no kill tonight, we don't have "just a lynch". We have a BETTER chance of hitting scum, and if we're wrong, the vig has a BETTER chance of killing correctly that night. I'm willing to trade the offchance that our vig dies for a better chance of winning the game.

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

You're only assuming best case scenarios. Saying that "hopefully" there will be 1 scum left is not "the numbers are in our favor". You're obfuscating the fact that your plan depends on the vig's ability to find scum. The vig doesn't have the greatest track record, so I'm not willing to bet it all on him/her.

Take some time to think about it, MoS. This is an unusual situation. No lynch is a bad idea.

I've thought about it a lot. No lynch is a great idea, and I'm having a hard time understanding why you are so reliant on power roles at this juncture of the game.

Also, before we lynch someone, we can always publicly discuss who the vig should kill the following night. That way the vig kill isn't dependent on "one person's opinion" (unless the vig decides to go against the crowd).

We do that anyway by indicating who we are suspicious of. However, it still comes down to the choice of one person as to who dies. I'm not willing to take that chance, and neither should you.

The vig kill is a horrible crutch to depend on for winning the game. If we lynch today, the vig only had a 50% chance of hitting scum tonight. I don't want the vig to kill anymore. I would rather depend on lynches and the input of all the players living to decide our lynches than depend on one player's opinion (even mine) to win the game for us.

Hmm. You are talking about a mislynch I assume, since the probability is only 50% where there are two scum. In the event of a mislynch, if the vig does not NK we have 2 scum and 2 non-scum, meaning that we have no hope of lynching mafia. If the vig succeeds, our situation is still only 2:1 or 1:1:1, both of which are worse for us than having no lynch and no vig.

Exactly. Which is why no lynch and no vig is a BETTER plan.

We need to lynch someone today, and regardless of whether we lynch scum or not, the vig needs to kill tonight. Then we'll have 3 left the next day, with (hopefully) at most one scum left. Sounds like "the numbers are in our favor" in that situation, and they won't be if we no lynch.

As I have said,
Mislynch = 3:2 (that's non-mafia : mafia, obviously there can be a cultist.)
MafNK = 2:2
VigNK = 2:1 (good) or 1:2 (loss)

If we no lynch and no vig, we end up at 3:2. I severely doubt that 2:1 is better than 3:2 at all, yet alone when it carries the risk of a 1:2 loss.

Also, before we lynch someone, we can always publicly discuss who the vig should kill the following night. That way the vig kill isn't dependent on "one person's opinion" (unless the vig decides to go against the crowd).

We faced a similar situation in another game I was in. I was adamantly against any sort of directing, but the compromise we reached was that each player listed four preferential candidates. On the numbers here, though, vigging seems insensible.

Agreed with the above.

Interrocroc strikes again!

[Trojan Horse]

I've thought about it a lot. No lynch is a great idea, and I'm having a hard time understanding why you are so reliant on power roles at this juncture of the game.

I'm not trying to be "reliant" on the power roles per se. I'm just trying to make full use of them. We have a protown player somewhere who can shoot a scum dead. Why shouldn't we take advantage of that?

You're wrong. Even if we no lynch today, and no kill tonight, we don't have "just a lynch". We have a BETTER chance of hitting scum, and if we're wrong, the vig has a BETTER chance of killing correctly that night. I'm willing to trade the offchance that our vig dies for a better chance of winning the game.

True, a no lynch (followed by a no vig) does improve our chances of hitting scum with our next lynch. But it also gives up a chance for the vig to shoot a scum. "Lynch at 6" + "Vig at 5" is a better chance than "Lynch at 5".

*sigh*

I'll take some extra time to think about this. But I really doubt you can convince me that a no lynch is the way to go.

[Oman]

I severely doubt that 2:1 is better than 3:2 at all,

Claims would have a lot to do with it. Unless we lose the vig earlier.

Another thing is, MoS has been very anti-vig. Now with the quality of some of the players here (unfortunatly I include MoS in that), the vig is scums biggest threat. I mean, MoSvig would find scum well. Vollkvig is synomous with scumdeath to me (:(). You look at that kind of thing and think "what would scum want the vig to do?" the answer is a nokill, as they can win without a miskill easily enough.

[vollkan]

Let's look back to the numbers again:

I'm going to simplify things by ignoring all the cult stuff. Besides, it is kind of easy to work out how a cult fits into things (just take off a townie and add on a third faction person)

Mislynch

Mislynch = 3:2
MafNK town = 2:2
--Vig NK town = 1:2
--Vig NK mafia = 2:1

Now, if the vig does not NK (or NKs the same townie as the scum), it goes to 2:2 No Lynch automatically. The vig then needs to kill scum (P=2/3) to have a hope of drawing it. Even then, there is a 50% chance of the scum NKing the vig. If they do so, we lose.

Mafia Lynch

Maflynch = 4:1
MafNK = 3:1
--Vig NK town = 2:1
--Vig NK mafia = 3:0

No Lynch

No Lynch = 4:2
MafNK = 3:2
--Vig NK town = 2:2 (see above for 2:2)
--Vig NK mafia = 3:1

~~~~~~~~~~~~
As Oman says, a lot of this has to do with claims. I would love to be able to do probability analysis of this, but unfortunately the claim situation makes that rather more difficult than I am used to.

[Oman]

Especially as not ALL roles are open.

[vollkan]

Another effort by me to rationalise things:

Mislynch

-Well, in the event of a mislynch the vig needs to NK to give us a hope of winning. The vig has a 50% chance of success causing 2:1 and a 50% chance of failure giving rise to 1:1, or 2:2 if vig targets the same as mafia. A No NK will make it 2:2, preventing a win.

Maflynch

- The vig has a 25% chance of lynching mafia to make it a win for us. The vig has a 75% of hitting a townie, which makes it either 2:1 or 3:1, depending on whether vig hits the same as the mafia. Now, the question is whether it is worth the risk of losing the ability to No Lynch D4 in the 3:1 scenario for the 25% chance of success. Frankly, I think our chances of success are better from a lynch than a vig, but I expect that people will see otherwise with me here.

No Lynch

- The vig has 2/5 chance of giving us a 3:1 D4 and a 3/5 chance of 2:2, which squanders any hope of a win. Here, I would be more convinced that no NK is the best move, given the significantly more serious risk.

~~~~~~~~~
In the simplest terms, I think the question that determines what we do today is this:

Is a possible 3:1 situation (the most likely best scenario) or a 2:1 situation (the next best) that much better than 3:2 that we should risk the consequences of a mislynch?

MoS is answering firmly in the negative. I am inclined to agree with him, but I do think this is a matter we need to debate. In complicated issues like this, it is all too easy to lose track of things (the claim issue for one).

Also, I don't know how the claiming thing affects these outcomes.