Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Korlash]

Why not CKD?

Unless you don't feel like indulging me here... >.>

[Adel]

I don't.

[Korlash]

Ok...

Fine with me...

>.>
<.<
"Anyone got any threes?"

[Miztef]

did you honestly just use post count to distigush scum from town.

I agree with that first chart (the map of all votes, FoS's etc.) as evidence, but using post count / word count????

You've got to be kidding me.

I'm still happy with my vote on Korlash, this day just needs to end anyway. I will make a good argument if need be, but I think everyone just wants this day to end, so I see no point in wasting the effort.

[Korlash]

Well you better be glad I don;t feel the same way or I would switch my vote to you...

Unlike some of you... Mixtef and Mexal for instance.. and a lesser part Adel.. I am interested in killing scum today.

But I admit today is getting rather boring isn't it...

[jerubbaal]

I have to admire the amount of work that you've put into this whole presentation, but I'm curious how exactly you're drawing conclusions from this whole thing, particularly why I'm his most likely scumbuddy. Is middle-of-the-road activity supposed to indicate scumminess? For all the good numbers work, this seems like a flawed assumption.

I'm not inclined to jump on the Korlash train until Adel shares a bit with us how his whole profiling system works. I have seen people use generalizations before to go after people with scummy activity patterns, but this seems a lot more thorough than I've ever seen before. I really like this approach for a day 1 lynch, but it seems like there are a lot more factors you would need to consider for a day 2.

I've been very suspicious of Miztef already, and Korlash's panicky reaction here would seem to indicate he's scummy, so I would agree with two of his three proposals. If it turns out you're only wrong about one out of the three, I will be really impressed.

[Korlash]

NOTE: This is the exact same thing I was arguing about when we had the bandwagon on Anata. How can you say I am over reacting after everything I have been saying these last 6 pages?

[/Note]

My reaction seems to indicate I'm scummy?

What... The fact i just got blindsided by a person who refuses to give reasons as to a vote, not does not give them, not gives bad reasons, REFUSES TO GIVE THEM!

I was nice, I asked, I did not jump to conclusions. I even waited for another player to second my questions (Jitsu also asked Her to explain them) and when she outright refused to give any I felt I was entitled to vote her. Then out of nowhere TWO MORE PEOPLE decide SHE HAD ENOUGH EVIDENCE AGAINST ME!

I swear if any of you can even show me a single piece of evidence she had I will vote myself... I admit I could have handled it a lot better, but I do not see my reaction as being overly scummy seeing as how I all of a sudden had a pro-lynched wagon on me for no apparent reason. And yes I am afraid this wagon will turn into a lynch in no time because I am pretty sure AA, CKD, and Mexal would not mind lynching me just to end today. In fact I was worried about you too Jer... I would like to know what 2 points it is your talking about.... Unless you want to be a jerk too and condemn me without informing me as to what it was I did...

I mean seriously there are 4 people voting me... At least one of you can tell me why... Is that really such a scummy thing to ask for? Honestly... This town seems to have made it it's goal to lynch a player today without any due cause... Huh... it almost makes me regret helping Anata.. almost...

Oh well... I don't mind being the sacrificial lamb today I suppose.. better then losing the Doc or Cop at least... I wasn't even going to bother with my role anyways as I find it more or less pointless... Unless I choose correctly... and knowing me I woudl choose the cop and that would just suck.. "Congratulations! You have successfully blocked the cop! You are the worst towny ever!"

Man... I could totally see that happening.. HEY! I just realized... If I got to hammer myself I would totally be proving Adel wrong on TWO COUNTS! Sweet... Hey can you guys go ahead and put me at L-1? I'll do you all a favor and end the day.

[Adel]

instead of sharing my true reasons and cases, I shared my data instead. I've put a stupid amount of work into this system over the last four months, and if I explained how the system works, the meta would shift, and my models would break. I want my system to work for more than just one game.

I figure a lynch of Korlash has almost a 75% chance of being true. I have a lot more trust in my models than I do in my judgment at this point.

Should you trust my models? of course not. That is why I've provided additional, more traditional, cases against him. From either perspective, he looks scummy enough to lynch. Korlash is a simple solution to this Day 1.

[Adel]

did Korlash just claim Mafia Roleblocker? wow.

[Adel]

but using post count / word count????

You've got to be kidding me.

I'll respond to this, because the last three diagrams really aren't that important. I look at them to help me determine who is active and who is passive. The scatter point graph is the best way to show who is an active player and who isn't. The difference between active and passive players makes a huge difference to my models. It is harder to tell the difference between passive and lurking players though.

If you have any insight on who is a lurker, who is just passive, and who forgot about the game, that would be really helpful.

[Korlash]

Theres a mafia RB too? o.O Now that role would work... cause then you would at least have some kind of understanding of who could be who... Instead of having to guess...

[Mexal]

Korlash, any reason you keep saying I'd just vote you to end the day?

[jerubbaal]

the vast, vast majority of Korlash's posts are nonsense spam posts like this one. Their major function is to clutter the thread and make it harder for townies to extract useful information.

He has a very high post count in this thread, but his signal:noise ratio is about the lowest.

This is the case against Korlash which I find the most convincing. Especially lately, his posts have been very frequent and contained absolutely nothing of content. However, I'm still not convinced he's smart enough to clog up the thread intentionally. I do believe there's something to Adel's whole profiling thing, but I'm not ready to accept it until he justifies it a bit more. He's basically said that sharing it would break it (which I find somewhat hard to believe, but I guess if I did that much work I'd want to protect it too, does the the meta here really shift that dramatically and quickly?), but hiding it makes it useless to the rest of us. I'm not really willing to take a leap of faith for you, especially as I know at least one of those conclusions is off.

Regardless of the legitimacy of Adel's whole system, it's really nice to have all those stats in the thread. Gives the rest of us mere mortals something to reference for our petty "traditional" arguments.

[Miztef]

ugh, I can't believe korlash just claimed roleblocker... it's hard to see it in his muck of posts, but he really did "claim" roleblocker [post 581 para. 7]

Thank you for the clarification adel. If your system honestly does work for you, that's fine, I just don't want to be voted on based on the amount of posts I made.

Korlash, I'm honestly not posting my case against just because I'm too lazy to do so.l I really don't have the time, and I get the feeling it only really makes sense to me, as it's based mostly on my experience with another player that played somewhat like you, and his differing styles when scum vs. town.

Your posting style in and of itself does not constitute scummy behavior, however, the way you interpret posts, choose on who to vote for, and how you relay information are all confusing and unhelpful to the town. It is honestly like reading through a 8 year old trying to write a novel.

You post nonsensical fluff mixed in with hard facts, and there is no way to distinguish the 2 easily. As scum, you can use this to your advantage by saying you meant different things when someone catches you saying something illogical/scummy.

Unfortunately, seeing as you claimed, which is something I completely did not expect of you (as scum), I will

unvote

. I think it is unlikely you would be so bold as to claim roleblocker at this point if you were indeed scum. I don't believe you are the kind of player that can argue a counterclaim, and therefore would not risk claiming in the first place. It is of course possible you are mafia roleblocker, but I believe that role is unlikely in this set-up, and even if you were, you would be unlikely to claim it at this point. Your post saying you didn't even know there was a mafia roleblocker seems sincere to me as well, and helped sway to to believe you are a town roleblocker.

I will see where the town goes at this point, but I do honestly want this day to end soon, so I'm warning now that I will jump on the next decent bandwagon (if I agree with it of course).

[curiouskarmadog]

^^^, yep confirm vote Mitzef...to lazy to push a case, willing to jump on the next bandwagon....


Still with the graphs huh Adel? Quality has increased, I will give you that....

I dont know how helpful they are Day 1, but I think a comparsion for future days (could be key)..do you do these every "day"?

[Miztef]

well, you know what karma dog, your right, it is a scummy thing to do, but at this point, I think everyone can agree this day has already basically passed, and we are just squabbling now. I admit adel has brought some interesting new stuff, but it's not profound or ground shaking. I would love to build a case against you, but I believe that is pointless with so many other suspects right now.

[Adel]

Theres a mafia RB too? o.O Now that role would work... cause then you would at least have some kind of understanding of who could be who... Instead of having to guess...

Unfortunately, seeing as you claimed, which is something I completely did not expect of you (as scum), I will

unvote

. I think it is unlikely you would be so bold as to claim roleblocker at this point if you were indeed scum. I don't believe you are the kind of player that can argue a counterclaim, and therefore would not risk claiming in the first place. It is of course possible you are mafia roleblocker, but I believe that role is unlikely in this set-up, and even if you were, you would be unlikely to claim it at this point. Your post saying you didn't even know there was a mafia roleblocker seems sincere to me as well, and helped sway to to believe you are a town roleblocker.

I will see where the town goes at this point, but I do honestly want this day to end soon, so I'm warning now that I will jump on the next decent bandwagon (if I agree with it of course).

that is a classic example of a scumbuddy abandoning a scumbuddy's wagon. Why did Miztef feel the need to explain his decision with so many words?

There occasionally are non-mafia roleblockers, but it is far more typical for a roleblocker to be mafia. Non-mafia roleblockers are almost as rare in normal mini's as insane (as opposed to paranoid or naive) cops are.

The presence of a mafia roleblocker suggests that we have both a cop and a doc in our town.

I definitely support a lynch of the Mafia Roleblocker over Miztef, who would either be a Godfather or a Goon.

[Adel]

I've been very suspicious of Miztef already, and Korlash's panicky reaction here would seem to indicate he's scummy, so I would agree with two of his three proposals. If it turns out you're only wrong about one out of the three, I will be really impressed.

and then the next post from jerubbaal says:

I'm not really willing to take a leap of faith for you, especially as I know at least one of those conclusions is off.

jerubbaal caught on that there may be some real muscle behind my system, and is now distancing from both the Miztef and the Korlash wagons.

I still think I got all three.

Yes, the meta does shift that quickly, as soon as a scumtell becomes common knowledge they become useless except against "newb scum". The most famous example is the fall out from when Jeep posts his personal list of scumtells. They were rendered useless within days.

[Miztef]

A scumtell basically just means anything that a scum would do to help his team. Any other "tells" vary completely based on playstyles.

I can tell you right now I've been a town roleblocker in a mini, and don't ever remember a having a mafia roleblocker in any game I've been in. Since that's what I based my info off of, I assumed town roleblockers were more common.

I made that long explanation to avoid stupid comments like "He's trying to distance himself from his scumbuddies". Obviously it would have came no matter what the case.

It is possible jerubbaal and korlash are scum, but I can't believe you that you think found all three mafia day 1. Almost always the first day ends up with a townie dieing, I have learned not to put too much hope in correctly finding scum day 1. The best you can reasonably hope for is gaining information from the lynch.

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 593

Korlash (3):

GunglingerKB, Adel, Sudo_Nym

Miztef (3):

curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal, Mexal

Setael (1):

Jitsu

Adel (1):

Korlash

Not Voting (4):

Satael, Abstract Actuary, oEJo, Miztef

12 alive, 7 will lynch.

(Korlash remains red despite Miztef's unvote)

[curiouskarmadog]

Vote Count as of Post 593

Korlash (4):

GunglingerKB, Adel, Sudo_Nym, Miztef

Miztef (2):

curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal

Anata112 (2):

Jitsu, Miztef

Adel (1):

Korlash

Not Voting (3):

Satael, Abstract Actuary, oEJo

12 alive, 7 will lynch.

mitzef unvoted

[Adel]

Almost always the first day ends up with a townie dieing, I have learned not to put too much hope in correctly finding scum day 1. The best you can reasonably hope for is gaining information from the lynch.

I thought that way as well, until Mastermind of Sin nailed all three people in our scum group day 1 in Mini 458. He identified Num7 and I as being scumbuddies based upon "analysis of voting patterns" that he wouldn't go into to detail upon, other than we had a conspicuous lack of interaction.

I encourage to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are listed games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.

The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.

Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.

As the Wikipedia says,

necdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.

When used in advertising or promotion of a product, service, or idea, anecdotal evidence is often called a testimonial and is banned in some jurisdictions. The term is also sometimes used in a legal context to describe certain kinds of testimony. Psychologists have found that people are more likely to remember notable examples than typical examples[1].

[Adel]

Almost always the first day ends up with a townie dieing, I have learned not to put too much hope in correctly finding scum day 1. The best you can reasonably hope for is gaining information from the lynch.

I thought that way as well, until Mastermind of Sin nailed all three people in our scum group day 1 in Mini 458. He identified Num7 and I as being scumbuddies based upon "analysis of voting patterns" that he wouldn't go into to detail upon, other than we had a conspicuous lack of interaction. Looking at MoS's win percentage as town gave me renewed hope in developing models that would accurately identify scum.

~~~

I encourage other townies to look at two easily found stats.
On my wiki page, and on Miztef's wiki page are lists games we've participated in.
On our respective profile page it show the total number of gameposts we've made to date on mafiascum.net.

The combination of the two stats (number of games played, and number of posts made) is a good indicator for relative experience with forum mafia. The number of posts made is used as a rough proxy for "number of games read" since both numbers have a direct correlation with a player's interest in mafia.

~~~

Miztef cited one game where he was a town aligned roleblocker. That is a perfect example of anecdotal evidence.

As the Wikipedia says,

Anecdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Some anecdotal evidence does not qualify as scientific evidence because its nature prevents it from being investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is.

When used in advertising or promotion of a product, service, or idea, anecdotal evidence is often called a testimonial and is banned in some jurisdictions. The term is also sometimes used in a legal context to describe certain kinds of testimony. Psychologists have found that people are more likely to remember notable examples than typical examples[1].

Based upon the number of mini normals I've participated in, and gathered information from for use in my models, mafia-aligned roleblockers are

far

more common than town-aligned roleblockers.

~~~

Why would a powerrole claim with only four votes? Lynch -3 is not the danger zone, there is no reason to claim at that point.

My theory is that Korlash panicked, just like his scumbuddy Miztef did, and claimed far too early.

A townie powerrole would wait far longer to claim. Being outed, along with drawing the NK, are the two biggest worries for a powerrole. Townie powerroles almost never claim until -1 to lynch, and I can't remember a case where a townie powerrole claimed at -3 to lynch I should've collected that stat, but I think I would've remembered any exceptional cases.
Scum planning a fakeclaim, on the other hand, are always tempted to claim earlier rather than later, because the pressure of a strong wagon can force information out of the targeted scum as well as his buddies. That is what I think we;ve just seen from jeb and Miztef.

[Miztef]

I haven't updated my wiki for a long time (at least not with new games) but it's true I haven't played too much here.

In many other games I have played offline (which is at least 50, probably more) I had never encountered a mafia roleblocker. That is, of course, an unfair statistic, but I'm basing my unvote on this, and don't expect others to agree automatically with it. Your evidence against korlash is continually growing, and I agree with most of it. I will

vote: Korlash

at this point. I believe he has a good chance of survival this day, so I hope my vote against him (if he turns out scum) will be seen as a townie move.

I don't mind losing. I am still learning to play well on this site, and realize I won't be able to beat players like you (adel) and mexal easily. I'm actually glad you are pointing out my mistakes, even though it makes me look more scummy.

At this point, I believe one of adel, jitsu, or mexal is scum, based solely on their amount of influence. Every time I have been scum, (yes, yes, anecdotal evidence) I have noticed at least 1 scum always takes a hard stance to get their opinion heard in the town. I have no evidence against a specific one of them, but I can't wait for this game to end and see who the scum actually are. Just thought I'd mention that.

[Korlash]

Korlash, any reason you keep saying I'd just vote you to end the day?

Yeah your post 475:

Honestly, I don't care anymore. It's day 1. Just lynch someone so we can move on with the game.

My theory is that Korlash panicked, just like his scumbuddy Miztef did, and claimed far too early.

Of course you would think that way, You plainly said you would not believe me if I claimed. And whether you think it was early or not I am still banking on the fact that people have been saying "This game is getting long/boring/whatever lets just lynch" and so my wagon can more or less be quick lynched at any moment...

I don;t care about being the NK, as I said before I find this role to be otherwise useless overall. I could hurt the town far more then I could help it. Granted I could prevent the NK too but I am not that good a player at RaF and so it would all be a matter of luck for me to do so.

Better I die then the doc/cop/tracker/vig... Or that is how I see it.

Scum planning a fakeclaim, on the other hand, are always tempted to claim earlier rather than later, because the pressure of a strong wagon can force information out of the targeted scum as well as his buddies. That is what I think we;ve just seen from jeb and Miztef.

Think what you like, looking back at Mexal's post I quoted I think I am more or less justified in my fear of a quick lynch... however the fact the only case against me is "I post a lot" is BS, I really shouldn;t be. I can link you to a game in another forum where I got 8 voes on me, the 3 hammering ones all within one post of each other, on the basis I was "Too loud" i.e. posted too much. I had already claimed town, although I denied it >< so it is more or less the same as this game. I ended up being town. However the game is still active (But on another forum) so I think any link to it would break the rules... But I could link you to the main forums and you could just go look at the game yourself... ehh it is still iffy i think...

Anyways i don;t feel like defending myself against a nothing case, as the defense would just be "I do this every game" and that is sooo helpful [/sarcasm]

Oh well.. I will check back in here later and see what you guys think..

also one last thing:

I had never encountered a mafia roleblocker. That is, of course, an unfair statistic, but I'm basing my unvote on this,

I know you say you are lazy but can you explain this to me? You are basing your vote on the fact You have never seen a Mafia RB and so it is more likely I am one? Is that what you are saying? I just don't fully understand this and want it clarified is all...