Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED

[Spider Jerusalem]

The Mafia could be given the Cop, which there is an additional 25% chance of, and will give us no information.

My thoughts exactly. I think there is a big risk in going no lynch. If we no lynch and the cop power hits on the mafia, we basically start off day 2 worse that we started day one. Not only do we not have lynch results to lead us anywhere but we will have a mafia cop feeding us bad info.
This game setup does have the potential for an advantageous no lynch outcome so I don't see the original suggestion as that bad an idea. It is good to consider our options, but I do have to wonder as others have noted about the quick follow-up. This may have just been a knee-jerk reaction to what seemed like a good idea but I'm inclined to believe something more can be gleaned from it.

I'll note that spurgistan replaced on the 30th of October but didn't post again for over a week till this afternoon to join the no lynch wagon, and then I noticed the following part in italics. (emphasis mine)

Maybe a no-lynch isn't that bad at all, remember, if we lose one triumvirate, the power roles are all gone, as far as I understand the rules. IF that's mistaken, then disregard this post. If we lynch normal town today (which is the most likely result, as they should be the only ones not to claim trium) then the scum odds of hitting one of the trium goes from 1/9 to 1/8. Granted, the trium odds of hitting the scum are equal, for now, but at this stage of the game I would definitely say

protecting those of us in the triumvirate is more important than killing the scum.

Vote: No Lynch

I believe that could be considered a role claim right there, even after his only other post states how nice it is that he doesn't have to come in making crazy role-claims. It's possible that this was unintentional or he is a little confused but it sure seems a little odd to me. He seems to use the word trium earlier to mean both the triumvirate ("...then the scum odds of hitting one of the trium goes from 1/9 to 1/8.") and to refrence the whole town ("Granted, the trium odds of hitting the scum are equal...") so I can see it being a case of not being familiar with the concept of the triumverate (basically a group or set of three, most commonly in reference to certain periods during the roman empire). However, perhaps this is the early set up to back up some later claim, and if it is what can we make of it. The lack of any content from him besides this post makes it awfully hard to get a read on what this is.

[Phate]

I disagree, SJ. I think "us" "those of us in the triumvirate" doesn't necessarily "those of | us in the triumvirate." I think it means "those of us | in the triumvirate." Ok, I'm doing not a very good job of explaining. Hmm. Like, for instance, if he said, "those of us who are scum will probably do this," you'd know he wasn't claiming scum, he meant "us" to mean "the players." I think here, when he says "us," he means the town or all the players. And "those of us (the town/all players) in the triumvirate." If I'm right, the "of us" is redundant - could be better read as "those in the triumvirate". And I think the "trium odds of hitting scum" means "the odds of the people who were assigned the triumvirate's powers to hit the scum."

So I said all that to say that I don't think that possible slip was the possible slip you thought it was.

[Miztef]

I also saw that line, but followed Phate's logic, and assumed it just meant the triumvirate out there in the town, not that he is in that group.

I think he would outright say it if he did want to claim.

[spurgistan]

Sorry, by "those of us in the triumvirate" I mean "those of us [town-oriented roles] who are in the triumvirate." Or something thereabouts, poorly worded. No claim.

[Mastermind of Sin]

SJ was stretching to come up with that conclusion, methinks.

[Shanba]

Someone2 has requested replacement

EDIT:

And is being replaced by Elmo. Thanks

[Flyinghawk]

posting in this game has really slowed. I hope Elmo will join us soon, and give us some thoughts on the game so far. Not too much to look through, either.

[Phate]

You first, Flyinghawk.

[Elmo]

<-- Always keeps promises, Shanba

*<3*

* I assume cop/doc is useless to the mafia.
* Using RB is counter-productive for (at least) tonight - 1:9 (10%) to block kill vs. 2:8 (20%) to block cop/doc. (Still bad if no lynch.)
* I think we should claim what we did last night when we get powers.
* Therefore we should be getting an investigation claimed each night, and most of them will be accurate, we hope.
* Lynch town/scum, we got 8:3 (72%) / 9:2 (81%) chance that a townie gets a given power.
* First cop claim is most reliable statistically until we lynch scum, so probably most important - WHO WE INVESTIGATE NIGHT 1 IS A BIG DEAL.
* Therefore perhaps we should do majority vote for who should be investigated? Or something?

I am concerned about claims. The scum have no reason not to claim tri, modulo ssf's post. If we want to win, we are probably going to have to lynch someone claiming tri, which makes our life fun. Maybe if someone claims tri, then both the cop and the doc target that person the following night? Scum can always fake-claim guilty as cop, but still. Hmm, not sure, worth thinking about though. Is it is best to ignore claims entirely? Probably not, but then we're stuck with lynching people who are claiming townie. The WIFOM here stinks.

The MoS thing is playable but boring. I will

unvote

:

FaerieLord

and

vote

:

Miztef

for being scum. Also, I claim serial killer. The Phate wagon is meh. I think skitzer is a bit scummy, but obviously it's hard to tell. Everyone who thinks SJ is scum fails at life (until proven otherwise).

MoS: "Pot calling kettle black" in 107 strikes me as bad. Why do you object to Phate making a perfectly logical statement about another newbie?

I really think that most of the people on this SJ things are either over ambitious or complete hypocrites.

Really? Why?

ssf: I agree on the WIFOM. I also think a l - 2 claim is probably good in principle - it would be better if people simply announced they were willing to vote and hammer instead of putting any more votes on. That seems the best of both worlds, to me. I also agree we need a plan on how to play the setup. I also think we shouldn't be relying on the cop power, and (controversy ahead) we shouldn't seek to protect the triumvirate at the cost of finding the scum. In the worst case, the game becomes mountainous. At which point we will need to have done scumhunting previously, or we're screwed. Contingency plans are good. I don't mean we go rambo, but there's a balance, and I don't want people to use the kid gloves and find neither instead of both. We are here to lynch scum, and only to protect the tris inasmuch as it helps us to lynch scum.

Maybe a no-lynch isn't that bad at all, remember, if we lose one triumvirate, the power roles are all gone, as far as I understand the rules.

If we

lynch

one. Not just lose. I'm pointing this out for everyone because I missed this for a bit.

miztif: The mafia pick one to do the kill. RB has to pick that one to block, or the kill goes through. I'm not sure why I'm helping you nightkill, but I'm feeling informative today.

I believe that could be considered a role claim right there

Not by anyone sane, no. Assuming it were, it's obviously unintentional, so

why are you pointing it out

? What good things come from this action?

The next person to speculate in

any way

over the identity of a triumvirate member gets a punch in the mouth. Scum don't do this because they can say nothing and then compare notes at night, but don't be dumb and help them out.

Why are Flyinghawk and spurgistan lurking? Also, YuanTi is active lurking and/or dead.

Mod

: If a triumvirate is killed, do we see which power they control? Also, please prod YuanTi. Thanks.

[Miztef]

wow, I'm actually not surprised at all I'm being voted, but with no evidence at all? For someone that just made a massive speech, that seems very odd. I will accept it for now and continue playing as normal though.

Due to Elmo's helpful clear-up on the RB power, I will go ahead and

unvote vote:Phate

. As Elmo has pointed out, the triumvirate are only as valuable as their powers. Hitting a triumvirate as the lynch today would be a horrible error, but I concede that a no lynch may not be as helpful as I thought.

When I decided on the no lynch vote, I had not thought of mafia getting the roles (I knew it was possible, but had forgotten to take it into account) and I did not know how the roleblocker works fully. My mind has been changed.

Elmo, your correction about the triumvirate rules is wrong... I think you meant the correct answer (and know it), but I am clarifying here for those who may mistake it. You said "If we lynch one. not

just

lose.". All triumvirate powers are lost

only

if the triumvirate is lynched, no other way. If a triumvirate is Nked, only their specific power is lost, and all surviving triumvirate powers continue to function normally.

Elmo is definitely correct that the town should never look for pro-town roles. However,
spurgistan's claim could be interpreted as a scum planting evidence as a claim. I don't agree that SJ gets off the hook for being scum based on this comment, that's an upsurd assumption.

I am not sure about the discussion of who we want investigated. Based on who is lynched, it may be more valuable to investigate someone different (based on the lynchee's role). I suppose we could discuss this for all cases (if scum... , if town...., if trium... ) but I think the town would not reach a conclusion easily in any case. Therefore, just leaving it to the actual cop is probably the best plan. Just by stating your suspicions normally, you are pretty much saying who you want investigated indirectly. Is it really that much different?

[Flyinghawk]

Also, I claim serial killer.

Hrmmm? what exactly do you mean by this? There is no SK mentioned in the roles on page 1, so I can only assume you mean this as a joke? Sarcastic or something?

please explain.

[spurgistan]

@Elmo: that's why I think a no-lynch might actually make sense here. Seeing as how the scum will automatically claim triumvirate, we're going to lynch a townie (who presumably wouldn't claim triumvirate, and these townies are the town's potential power roles, so by lynching town, I feel like we're lynching power roles. And yes, we should claim investigations / protections tomorrow.

[Phate]

@FlyingHawk - If, in an open game, someone claims a role that's not listed, they're being sarcastic... especially if they claim something anti-town.

For the record, I'm a dayvig, and the next person to vote me dies.

[Shanba]

Vote Count:
3: Phate

(Flyinghawk, MoS, Miztef)

2: No Lynch

(spurgistan, SSF)

2: Miztef

(phate, Elmo)

1: MoS

(YuanTi)

Not voting: skitzer, Spider Jerusalem, FaerieLord, Sir Tornado,

YuanTi was prodded on the eighth and has until I find a replacement to post. If a Trumvirate dies, yes, you will see which power was controlled

[somestrangeflea]

@Elmo: that's why I think a no-lynch might actually make sense here. Seeing as how the scum will automatically claim triumvirate, we're going to lynch a townie (who presumably wouldn't claim triumvirate,

Your logic is flawed. By your logic, if all Mafia are going to claim Trium, then all Vanilla claimers are confirmed town. This is of course, false.

and these townies are the town's potential power roles, so by lynching town, I feel like we're lynching power roles.

Also, false. Townies, the Trium and the Mafia can all be given the powers.

And yes, we should claim investigations / protections tomorrow.

/agree.

I will also say that I have been swayed enough by popular opinion to

Unvote: No Lynch

.

[FaerieLord]

@Elmo. Simple. If someone is wagoning SJ, they are agreeing with what the starter of the wagon said. So they are voting SJ for something they are doing themselves.

[Shanba]

Thin_Man replaces YuanTi

[spurgistan]

I'm just wondering why anybody would claim vanilla, given that they could conveniently claim an unlynchable role. Vanilla claimers are not confirmed town, but no WIFOM, I couldn't understand scum under duress claiming vanilla when those are the only players we can safely lynch.

[Elmo]

All triumvirate powers are lost

only

if the triumvirate is lynched, no other way. If a triumvirate is Nked, only their specific power is lost, and all surviving triumvirate powers continue to function normally.

Yeah, that's what I meant. Rereading it, it does seem a bit ambiguous, so thanks for that.

For the record, I'm a dayvig, and the next person to vote me dies.

No, you're not, because I'm a daycop and I have a guilty on you. Die, scum.

I remain deeply unconvinced on a no lynch. The primary issue is that we're probably going to have to risk lynching someone claiming triumvirate at least once. I don't see how no lynch today really helps us with that - we're getting a cop investigation which we can have 75% confidence in. Mafia have a 1 in 3 chance of getting a tri tonight. So we trade one townie (we hope) for one somewhat-but-not-really confirmed innocent. Also, if we random lynch today, we have a 75% chance of not getting a tri - the same chance that tonight's investigation is reliable. I'm open to discussion, but I don't see what a no lynch gains us, at the moment. I haven't worked it out properly, but at this point, the doc / RB have very poor odds to block a kill - the only thing going for us is the cop power.

Basically: No Lynch = 1 dead town (1 in 3 chance dead tri), 75%-reliable 1 cop result. Why is this a good trade?

I'm also going to say that unless we've lynched two mafia already, I don't think the tris should be counterclaiming. Tris should be claiming when near lynch, obviously. Also, don't fakeclaim triumvirate - I'm just saying.

We need to be clear on "agreeable". Being "agreeable" means being nice, friendly, polite, and is a good thing. Anyone thinking SJ = scum because he's being nice fails. Agreeing with everyone else is a valid scumtell, but people need to make a case why he's scum - if someone says that water is wet, and I agree with them, that doesn't mean I'm scum.

Also,

FoMS: Spider Jerusalem

for being way too agreeable. That always makes me suspicious. Also for his name, which I can't figure out.

PROBABLE FAIL. Anyone seriously following this needs their head examined.

Agreeing with the majority view here. [...] Again, more agreeing.

NON-FAIL. Detail about how this indicates his guilt would be nice. I disagree, but this is not horrible.

FaerieLord: A person might disagree with everything except that SJ was agreeing with everyone. In this case, they are not guilty of what Miztaf says, which (I believe) started the wagon. Why do you feel they are "over ambitious" if they are not hypocrites?

Miztef: Recently, I tend not to give my reasons for voting, at least to begin with. I do not approve of Phate either, if it makes you feel any better.

Just by stating your suspicions normally, you are pretty much saying who you want investigated indirectly. Is it really that much different?

Big difference: if we collectively agree on one (or perhaps two) people, then if scum gets cop, they have to investigate that person. Otherwise, they can have a much freer choice of who to investigate. Essentially, this way, the town controls who is investigated, even when scum gets the investigation. This improves our chances of forcing the scum to lie about a result, instead of being able to get away with claiming a plausible but fairly useless innocent result.

spurgistan: I do believe ssf has a good post on this issue in 134 on that. Are you familiar with WIFOM?

I think that scum will not always claim tri, because this may well end up being catastrophic for them in the endgame. Depending on how many tris die before then, it may narrow it down significantly. I would, however, be fairly sceptical of any tri claims. Not quite sure how to play this, yet.

[Miztef]

scum probably wouldn't even say that they got the cop power in the first place, or could just lie about who they investigated completely. There is no use at all to the town if a mafia gets cop power imo.

[Elmo]

Everyone who claims a cop result is either town or mafia lying.
If the mafia lie, we have a chance to catch them in a lie later.
If the mafia get a cop results and don't claim it, then we know someone has not claimed. This narrows the field down over time, because the number of people who have not claimed results decreases.

[Elmo]

EBWOP: Mafia are not necessarily lying. But if we pick who to investigate well, they should be forced to lie about their buddies being innocent more often.

[Mastermind of Sin]

If we no lynch, we won't gain any information from today's votes, except from the person that dies and the one that gets investigated (assuming both are successful). I think we maximize our information by lynching today.

[Thin_Man]

Hi.

[Thin_Man]

Ok, I have some opinions now. I'll check to see if they're solid and vote after my next class.