Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

[thenewearth]

If my flip clears anyone except Chrimi as town, go ahead

[thenewearth]

All I'm seeing is clearing chrimi's name and that seems a waste

[shannon]

What do you think we should do TNE?

[shannon]

And has this helped you to PR solve the game?

[thenewearth]

That wasn't the intended plan but I guess it almost worked

[thenewearth]

Give me a TL;DR

How many names do I clear when I townflip?

[Cass]

All I'm seeing is clearing chrimi's name and that seems a waste

This is absolutely not why I support this wagon, nor is it true. A town flip would only semi-clear Chrimi. My reason is that after all the possible scenario's I estimate it's about 50/50 odds of you being scum. Did you even look at those, or are you just indifferent to this game? What is the most likely scenario in your opinion? Who should we lynch if you flip town, still Implosion?

[Cass]

Give me a TL;DR

How many names do I clear when I townflip?

I am not lynching you (well, expressing willingness to) to have you flip town and clear people, but in strong hopes you'll flip scum. That is the scenario where things are cleared up. If town, I'm just back at Drone (+imp or pp) with even more conviction. I really hope that doesn't happen.

[thenewearth]

I firmly believe in my implosion vote, yes

[thenewearth]

Wow I actually have a town list

Chrimi
Shannon
Cass

[shannon]

For what it's worth, the case you made about the BP claim earlier (how it's falsifiable in LYLO) also applies to your own situation now TNE. You'll forever be the person I jailkept but we don't know whether or not you're scum until you flip.

I think that it's better to do this early than late, to avoid further confusion for town.

[shannon]

On that note it's bed for me, please don't hammer in the next 24 hours I think we still have things to sort out.

[thenewearth]

Lets look at it this way

As long as it either AT LEAST:
1) Semi-clear 2 names
2) Confirm Clears 1

My lynch would definitely be pro town

[thenewearth]

And then I can actually put my trust in my town reads

[Cass]

We'll also have a much clearer read on the responses day 2. And you'll have to admit there's strong case to be made against you here:

- If scum, you had a strong incentive (after failed NK) to force roleclaims, and fast. Asking for BP was the safest way tot do that for scum.
- If scum, your flipping out after Shannon claims could be genuine anger, because she just really hurt your chances by claiming a JK on you.
- You were Jailkept and there was no NK - like Shannon says, kinda like the BP claim for late game problems, and it'll be late game tomorrow. Without that info, you'd porbably not be in this position now.

[thenewearth]

Or just assume my townflip

PoE the fuck out of everything

[Chrimi]

Wow I actually have a town list

Chrimi
Shannon
Cass

Don't throw me in with those two! </3

[Chrimi]

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?

Chrimi/AF nightkill TNE who is protected by the shannon. At that point, scum knows there are three potential setups. 1, C, or 3 since there was an obvious BP or protective role. Chrimi fakeclaims BP knowing that if setup 1, no one can CC and it appears legit to the JK. If setup C, takes the chance that neither PR wants to out themselves to CC on D2, and if they do, Great!. If setup 3, takes the chance that Chrimi could appear more genuine as the real BP should they CC, especially with 2nd scum support, or that the real BP doesn't want to CC. Any way, 33% chance of no CC, 67% chance of outing a PR.

Now Chrimi knows that we are in Setup 1 and there is no one to CC.

That's all speculative, and just to point out that there is a scenario. I don't believe that to be the case.

You stopped making sense fast, god damn.

Scum me claims with a 3/4 chance of suicide? If it's B, a counter claim is one PR for one scum..

with a protective role on the table to save the PR.

[Chrimi]

If we lynch town today then you shouldn't necessarily follow what you announce, instead you should try to guess who will be the scum who makes the kill and jailkeep them. Although again I guess this is irrelevant if there's a roleblocker.

Correct. And if I survive until tomorrow, there's probably no roleblocker and this has implications for Chrimi's authenticity.

What's that Shannon? As long as scum kills someone other than you, scum can get an easy mislynch on me tomorrow?

You know the roleblocker doesn't even need to use their ability to kill you, right? Unless you happen to know who is scum and which one will make the night kill (which you don't because for some ungodly reason you think conftown is scum)

They don't even need roleblocker to kill you. They might even go ahead and kill someone random just so you'll go "See Chrimi is scum!!" tomorrow and go for an all out mislynch on town.

PEDIT: What? Penguin making sense? Looks like I need to look over my reads again..

Chrimi if there's no roleblocker it's possible for me to guess who the scum is that's coming to kill me, and jailkeep them. Hence, me being alive tomorrow. If there *is* a roleblocker I'd expect them to both roleblock me and kill me just to be sure. Can you see a scenario where it makes sense for scum to leave me a live, with info about who I jailkept, for another day, vs. killing me? No?

No, because you won't jailkeep scum, because you think I'm scum. You're completely wrong so they don't need to worry about getting jailkept. Because you claimed ffs

[PenguinPower]

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

Shannon, there is no logical scenario where Chrimi is scum and Tne is town (because of your jailkeeping) - or do you see one I'm missing?

Chrimi/AF nightkill TNE who is protected by the shannon. At that point, scum knows there are three potential setups. 1, C, or 3 since there was an obvious BP or protective role. Chrimi fakeclaims BP knowing that if setup 1, no one can CC and it appears legit to the JK. If setup C, takes the chance that neither PR wants to out themselves to CC on D2, and if they do, Great!. If setup 3, takes the chance that Chrimi could appear more genuine as the real BP should they CC, especially with 2nd scum support, or that the real BP doesn't want to CC. Any way, 33% chance of no CC, 67% chance of outing a PR.

Now Chrimi knows that we are in Setup 1 and there is no one to CC.

That's all speculative, and just to point out that there is a scenario. I don't believe that to be the case.

You stopped making sense fast, god damn.

Scum me claims with a 3/4 chance of suicide? If it's B, a counter claim is one PR for one scum..

with a protective role on the table to save the PR.

First, I said that I didn't think this was the case. Cass asked for an example where it was possible. I provided one.

Second, scum would know B was off the table since there was an obvious protection/BP resulting in no NK. Setup B could not have that happen. (Also, if it's B, there is no protective role on the table. There's only one PR.) It could only be 1, C, or 3.

You aren't really making sense....

[implosion]

I kinda expected you to notice how some just repeat the conclusions we've already came up hundreds of times.
And btw Imp, tne's lynch would give us all what we need to know on n1's nk fate.

I did notice it, primarily because you already mentioned it so I didn't really feel the need to restate it.
And it also does factor in to my willingness to hammer.
tne's lynch doesn't

quite

give us perfect information on what happened n1; if she flips scum we don't know if she made the kill or if the other scum shot Chrimi, and if she flips town then we don't know if she was shot or Chrimi was shot (though I think the latter is more likely, I've been surprised by scum nks in the past).

tne can also be the roleblocker if Chrimi was shot.

[innocentvillager]

Mod Notes

	VOTECOUNT 2.3
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Cass	implosion	1
2. AstralFlare
3. PenguinPower
5. Drone	Cass	1
6. Chrimi
7. thenewearth	PenguinPower, Chrimi, Drone, shannon	4 (L-1)!!
8. shannon
9. implosion	thenewearth	1

Not voting: AstralFlare

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-09-06 12:09:21).

With 8 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

[shannon]

UNVOTE:

[shannon]

Tne is now back to L-2

I think it's unlikely tne and chrimi are working together, and ts possible both are town. So let's try to find the other scum

Can I please ask everyon to poe and post their process and results? I am not sharing mine for obvious reasons

[Chrimi]

Tne is now back to L-2

I think it's unlikely tne and chrimi are working together, and ts possible both are town. So let's try to find the other scum

Can I please ask everyon to poe and post their process and results? I am not sharing mine for obvious reasons

TNE is totally scum, throw that vote back on bby