Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[mhsmith0]

Rosske is subbing out, and until and unless the mod weighs in, I'm presuming that the deadline is frozen. I planned to pay more attention to him in particular, but given that he can't answer any questions (and who knows when the sub will come in and, presumably, participate), there's less that can be productively done there at the moment.

Anyway, since wing referenced Mini 1800 I went back and skimmed karnos's ISO. I notice there that he basically never engages his partners (at least not in terms of quoting or @ mentions - it's possible there are in-thread conversations that a quick ISO misses), except for a stretch where he was talking with one partner (Magna) about a bus of the third (Mathblade). This reinforces the conclusion that karnos's lack of engagement with partners is a meaningful part of his wolf meta. This further clears Thor, giga and Wing IMO, which FMPOV leads to a pretty likely PoE of Tenshii, Rosske, and Transcend. If you presume Transcend is town (and I'm increasingly reading him that way - it seems pretty clear that he believes that Rosske is the last wolf) then I think it's basically inside {Tenshii, Rosske}.

The problem I have is that (IMO) there isn't any kind of glaringly obvious single last wolf, which does make me suspect that I'm missing something important. Probably gonna do another read through over the weekend, since again I'm presuming deadline is frozen until a sub comes in. Some responses to wing coming in a bit.

[mhsmith0]

Actually...

VOTE: mhsmith0

The only thing I don't really agree with is how Karnos challenged kcdaspot. I don't really get why Karnos would attack his own partner like that. Other than that, everything adds up. kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo. kcdaspot responded late (idk if that's necessarily indicative though) and had a poor reason of needing an updated vote count when it (i think) was pretty obvious that Karnos had way more momentum to get lynched.

Talk more about

kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo

Do you mean this sequence?

with that based on what ive seen its karnos and KTL for the scumteam secondary scummy reads on luna and GT (gut mainly)

ANNNNNNND

VOTE: KTS

We real now

pedit: now that you mention that and transcend is not far off of making the list either.

If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?

OHBOYOHBOYOHBOY KTS FRONT LIKE HE A SASSY LIL GIRL HE DONT KNOW HOW THIS REAL MUTHAHEFFE CAN SNATCH DEM WEAVES IN A INSTANT

karnos got the idea. hes still scummy thoo.and .... wtf KTS?

What in particular pings you about KC's reaction? Also, do you think that karnos's quote is how you'd expect one wolf to talk to another? Obviously there's a wide range of what wolves can do, but that's a weird interaction between wolves. It reminds me a lot more of what I saw in my most recent completed game...

Spoiler: BBT and me

VOTE: Kuroi

BBT, talk me through that kuroi vote. What convinced you to push there? I look at your ISO and literally the first time you even mentioned him was with that vote. Or, did something convince you thta Square was NOT a wolf?

Out of the two, Kuroi was the much better option.

If that's the case, why weren't you pushing for his lynch and outlining the case? I get that you're not responsible for the wagon on square going pretty fast, but at the same time, a naked vote isn't likely to actually get kuroi lynched or under serious pressure.

I have no influence on this game as of yet, so my pushing would have achieved nothing. I chose the wagon I thought was best.

I haven't had the time to put into this game that I would have liked. I still haven't read it properly.

Also, if you're looking for a way onto my wagon you don't have to beat around the bush.

Just hop straight on.

Nah i'm still asking questions. Probably gonna re-read the whole thread sometime over the weekend.

Like, I could have pushed for Kuroi and people would have asked why. Then I would have said 'I'm not sure really, just something about their posting doesn't sit right with me'. Then people would be skeptical because clearly I haven't read the game properly and can't back up my vote so it's perceived as a weak vote (which nobody would follow) and it probably kills momentum on the wagon instead of pushing it.

In that case, BBT was a wolf and I was town (incidentally, kuroi was also a wolf, but that's not particularly relevant for this comparison). I guess I'm curious why you (and wing for that matter) would look at that interaction and think w/w.

It's just weird for a wolf to just challenge his teammate to vote for him like that. It seems a lot more like an intended manipulation of "look at me, I'm willing to die, that makes me town" (or possibly "look at this guy not putting his vote where his mouth is" as a discrediting maneuver), with KC then falling for it (to some extent anyway - if nothing else it kept KC on KTS). Like, challenging a wolf bro in that situation with the intent to simulate a pocketing of a townie (or possibly a discrediting attempt), without day chat, is a maneuver that's potentially super risky (since the teammate can screw up that interaction in all sorts of ways, including having it simply just come across wrong). What makes you think that karnos is either capable of pulling that kind of maneuver off or even willing to try it? To me, that's simply not how I'd expect a wolf to talk to his teammate.

[mhsmith0]

It's still really weird I think that karnos never bothered making a meaningful survival move onto a different wagon, like Thor or PC, when there was reasonable chance to justify it. I guess he was trying to imitate townie stubbornness but it really didn't work.

It's also pretty annoying that we don't get VC's in order of voting, so it's kinda hard to unpack that way. I may try and pull one together that orders votes, but probably not ASAP.

Also this post initially rubbed me off the wrong way when I first saw it but it kinda makes sense now. mhsmith0 was trying to do an indirect attack on Thor. I think mhsmith0 would've pushed this harder as town. I don't understand why town!mhsmith0 brings it up like that without any followup.

It's an interesting data point, just like the NK, where we have an action that we KNOW came from a wolf. Why do you think it's indicative for me to de-emphasize this particular point while emphasizing the NK in particular? If your theory is that I'm just trying to throw dirt on Thor, then there's a point of suspicion either from "why is Thor alive" or "why didn't karnos try to survive". Your theory seems to be that my de-emphasizing one point is wolf-indicative, even though what actually happened was that i ended up spending more time on the other point, which in your world also is just throwing dirt on thor.

I don't see how my choice to spend more time on one point instead of the other is remotely indicative on me, using "how does this impact Thor" as a framework. I DO, however, see this choice as potentially indicative on me if "how does this impact Tenshii" is the framework instead, since my choice to look more at NK motive and less at the voting pattern implicates Tenshii relatively more, and Transcend relatively less (both Thor and Rosske are implicated in either set).

Response?

[mhsmith0]

Smith, I've just realized you've been fairly neutral for today. Like you voted me for a bit and that was just for a bit. You haven't really finalized your reads from what i see. We are approaching deadline so i wanna know from you if you had to take 3 shots at one duck in this game, what would they be?

Currently, Tenshii, Rosske, and MAYBE you. Really not sure on the third, but I feel pretty decent about the town reads on giga, wing and thor.

[mhsmith0]

@wing: When have you seen karnos interact with a buddy in this manner? You've discussed his "bussing meta"; where have you seen him challenge a buddy to vote him like this?

I never said I specifically saw him challenge a buddy to vote.

I think it's less likely he would bait a town player into voting him than a partner.

I have no idea why you would think this. What's your experience seeing wolves challenging other players to vote for them and/or calling them out for not having already done so? Can you think of any examples where such an interaction is wolf/wolf? I just popped out one that was town/wolf from the very last game I finished, and while that's a sample size of exactly one, I'm highly curious if you can provide any good examples of a similar interaction being wolf/wolf.

[Tenshii]

kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo. kcdaspot responded late (idk if that's necessarily indicative though) and had a poor reason of needing an updated vote count when it (i think) was pretty obvious that Karnos had way more momentum to get lynched.

kcdaspot basically ignored it in his first post after Karnos challenged him. (Where I thought he ignored) then after Kcdaspot replies to Karnos with VC update being necessary.

I more or less agree with the latter half of your 2026.

It's an interesting data point, just like the NK, where we have an action that we KNOW came from a wolf. Why do you think it's indicative for me to de-emphasize this particular point while emphasizing the NK in particular? If your theory is that I'm just trying to throw dirt on Thor, then there's a point of suspicion either from "why is Thor alive" or "why didn't karnos try to survive". Your theory seems to be that my de-emphasizing one point is wolf-indicative, even though what actually happened was that i ended up spending more time on the other point, which in your world also is just throwing dirt on thor.

I don't see how my choice to spend more time on one point instead of the other is remotely indicative on me, using "how does this impact Thor" as a framework. I DO, however, see this choice as potentially indicative on me if "how does this impact Tenshii" is the framework instead, since my choice to look more at NK motive and less at the voting pattern implicates Tenshii relatively more, and Transcend relatively less (both Thor and Rosske are implicated in either set).

Response?

Can you quote where you attacked/elaborated on Thor being alive? Iirc you never attacked/pressured Thor for it.

Also do you have any questions for me mhsmith0?

[mhsmith0]

In summary, this guy has a decent chance of flipping scum and I don't want him around in LYLO. Percentage-wise, I'd say 35% each on Rosske/mhsmith. 10% each on Transcend/Gigabyte, and 5% each on Thor/Tenshii. Lynching him over mhsmith makes sense given how thoughtful and interested in solving the game mhsmith is and leaving around someone like Rosske in lylo isn't something that I'm okay with.

I'll try and re-read Rosske's ISO (it's short enough so shouldn't take too long) and try and nail down an mhsmith read tonight. Unless something super-scummy pops up, I'll vote Rosske. Otherwise, I'll vote mhsmith.

@Wingback: talk about what exactly pinged you in the re-read that you hadn't already been aware of? You voted me 20 minutes after posting the above, which seems like an awfully quick turnaround from your previous "I'm planning on voting rosske" bit. It seems like your big evidence point was the "baiting" bit, which is a strange piece of evidence to base a major swing in read, both because I don't see how it's actually wolf-indicative and because it was very obviously not a hammer position if karnos was paying meaningful attention to the thread at that point (which I'd guess he was).

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Wrt luna, my recollection was her postings and engagement improved. For instance her early d2 rosske stuff looked natural and like she was actively working to clear townies, which in that spot isn't really how I'd expect a wolf to act. I can probably re-read and find more specific stuff if you're really curious about my read of her in particular.

haven't caught up fully (yes i know it's a page but it looks interesting)

But isn't that Luna's entire playstyle (clearing townies)? She never pushes scumreads (well, except KTS), she finds townreads and we've seen her do such in this game. Her finding more reasons to townread Rosske seems like a completely reasonable thing for her to do regardless of her alignment, at least in my opinion.

I'll see what you've written now and follow-up if I feel necessary.

[Tenshii]

Btw Wing's page 80 is basically what convinced me. But mhsmith0 hasn't refuted much of it

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Considering it's somewhat likely that someone bussed given how Karnos was the sole wagon that was gaining steam with no counterwagons

Hmmm, I actually want to talk about this more because I disagree.

D1, the Thor and Io wagons were both at about the same strength as the karnos wagon until Luna voted for Karnos. Sure, they never reached the tipping point, but I think the fact that there were multiple counterwagons with voter support (not really logical support but w/e) points to the fact that the other mafioso was pushing at least one of them. KTS quickhammering just accelerated the entire lynch process and stopped mafia from being able to deflect the karnos wagon.

Which is why I'd rather vote Tenshii or Rosske's slot before I even consider mhsmith.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I might do a VCA of my own in the future.

[mhsmith0]

kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo. kcdaspot responded late (idk if that's necessarily indicative though) and had a poor reason of needing an updated vote count when it (i think) was pretty obvious that Karnos had way more momentum to get lynched.

kcdaspot basically ignored it in his first post after Karnos challenged him. (Where I thought he ignored) then after Kcdaspot replies to Karnos with VC update being necessary.

I more or less agree with the latter half of your 2026.

Except KC didn't ignore it, and you now see this, is that correct? Also, what makes you think that KC wasn't simply inside of a tunnel of KTS? His follow-up

not totally my style. i can but when this guy is just posting like THIS? i cant... i cant just let this go.

to karnos: im waiting for the mod to get in here for a VC before i act on you anyway. gotta see who on that wagon. plus THIS GUY IM ON RIGHT NOW. I CANT JUST LET HIM GO.

seems pretty consistent with that viewpoint, for instance. Like, do you not think it's believable that someone who seemed to only bother to do one read-through of the thread before getting into things wouldn't have bothered to remember who was voting for who? If he was a wolf, then he'd probably be aware of who was on karnos and was just faking this note. Do you think it's fake? Or do you think that he, as a wolf, would simply not bother to keep track of who's voting his buddy?

Also, to be clear, you agree that the original note was a very weird thing for karnos to say to his buddy? But you still think it was something that karnos did in fact say to his buddy?

It's an interesting data point, just like the NK, where we have an action that we KNOW came from a wolf. Why do you think it's indicative for me to de-emphasize this particular point while emphasizing the NK in particular? If your theory is that I'm just trying to throw dirt on Thor, then there's a point of suspicion either from "why is Thor alive" or "why didn't karnos try to survive". Your theory seems to be that my de-emphasizing one point is wolf-indicative, even though what actually happened was that i ended up spending more time on the other point, which in your world also is just throwing dirt on thor.

I don't see how my choice to spend more time on one point instead of the other is remotely indicative on me, using "how does this impact Thor" as a framework. I DO, however, see this choice as potentially indicative on me if "how does this impact Tenshii" is the framework instead, since my choice to look more at NK motive and less at the voting pattern implicates Tenshii relatively more, and Transcend relatively less (both Thor and Rosske are implicated in either set).

Response?

Can you quote where you attacked/elaborated on Thor being alive? Iirc you never attacked/pressured Thor for it.

Also do you have any questions for me mhsmith0?

Is it your opinion that I should have been directly attacking him with it, even though I had an overall town read, and other data (including the number and quality of interactions between Thor and karnos) made Thor look very town? I touched base on my opinion on thor wrt that info at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8250571

I also discussed the implications of the NK (as I saw it) fairly extensively; look at my ISO between 1649 and 1763. I've also been discussing other info, including interactions (most notably at 1830), VCA, etc. I'm putting information into the thread, and pretty openly working through the implications as I see them. Why do you think this is wolf-indicative of me? Am I just trying to simulate a town process? Am I trying to do something actively pro-wolf? If you think I'm the goon here, I want to know why exactly you think this.

[Tenshii]

seems pretty consistent with that viewpoint, for instance. Like, do you not think it's believable that someone who seemed to only bother to do one read-through of the thread before getting into things wouldn't have bothered to remember who was voting for who? If he was a wolf, then he'd probably be aware of who was on karnos and was just faking this note. Do you think it's fake? Or do you think that he, as a wolf, would simply not bother to keep track of who's voting his buddy?

Lean fake yeah.

Also, to be clear, you agree that the original note was a very weird thing for karnos to say to his buddy? But you still think it was something that karnos did in fact say to his buddy?

I don't think Karnos would say that to buddy. In regards to that challenge, I only think KC's reaction to it was bad.

Is it your opinion that I should have been directly attacking him with it, even though I had an overall town read, and other data (including the number and quality of interactions between Thor and karnos) made Thor look very town? I touched base on my opinion on thor wrt that info at viewtopic.php?p=8250571#p8250571

Yeah why not? It's not like it's a clear town read in the first place. Also I think if you're scum then this is you setting up for a Thor lynch after I get lynched.

I also discussed the implications of the NK (as I saw it) fairly extensively; look at my ISO between 1649 and 1763. I've also been discussing other info, including interactions (most notably at 1830), VCA, etc. I'm putting information into the thread, and pretty openly working through the implications as I see them. Why do you think this is wolf-indicative of me? Am I just trying to simulate a town process? Am I trying to do something actively pro-wolf? If you think I'm the goon here, I want to know why exactly you think this.

Well yeah wolf can simulate being town. That's how town generally wins in the first place.

[mhsmith0]

Btw Wing's page 80 is basically what convinced me. But mhsmith0

hasn't

has refuted much of it

I Fixed Your post. Specific refutations include:

1) The discussion about the "baiting" post

2) The "KTS scumclaim" reaction bit. Only two players had any meaningful reaction there, out of the seven currently alive (Luna barely reacted, and even that just makes seven), which means that

Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim

is factually inaccurate.

3)

Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing

is a STRETCH of what actually happened. He cited one instance, not mulitple, and even that was buried inside a post challenging someone (Transcend) about the stated karnos town read. This wasn't a vague or soft "what do you think of the evidence", this was a challenge to Transcend to justify his town read in the fact of a pretty weak and unsupported meta that Transcend himself used as evidence, when weighed against what everyone else had argued. I utterly fail to see how that's wolf-indicative and so should you.

and while we're at it...
4)

The unvote looked fake because it showed that your vote lacked conviction. I find many scum are more likely to not push an aggressive town player and to unvote more easily in the face of aggression because they are afraid that other townies will see it as obvtown and they're left with a stale vote hanging there. Not all scum players do this. For instance, I wouldn't expect Transcend or Thor to back down so easily. But you fit the profile of analytical scum who has trouble faking overt conviction in your pushes.

@Wing:
So I, as a wolf, backed down in the face of Transcend's continued aggression towards a different player (Rosske) and insistence upon Rosske's lynch even in the face of his own potential lynch? This seems a lot more like a town player who is simply unsure of what the correct lynch is, and is actively trying to figure it out. What makes you think that I'm not? Given the array of realistically plausible cases, why wouldn't I, as a wolf, just pick one and pretend to have conviction? This seems like the more natural course of action for me as a wolf; what's your theory behind why I'm doing something different?

5)

I read the one newbie scumgame you played on site where half your ISO was feedback to the town. The town game I read was Quaroth's game which went on forever with multiple no lynches. You were obviously town in the latter. In the former, the way you offered feedback, and how you talked about hating your losses so much that it forces you to become a better player showed me how thoughtful and determined you are to improve. In any case, that's not a reason why I'm seeing you as scum. It's just why I don't find your *effort* indicative of alignment.

Yeah, funny, that. So in my most successful game as a wolf ever (only sweep win outside of turbos), I made all of 31 posts in the span of two game days, a decent number of which weren't particularly good or helpful, including gems like

I think that we should all agree not to have any quick CC's against anything Vandit claims. Beyond that I'd rather not discuss the specifics of what should be countered and why until after he actually claims.

FWIW, games on this site are usually a good deal livelier than this one has been the last few days.

yeah basically my point. this game state is unusual, so please don't think it's usually like this.

Might as well give him the chance though. 24 hour notice of intent to vote, EVEN IF IT IS A HAMMER. Defend and/or claim in that time period. If anyone here thinks I should give more than 24 hours, I'm willing to discuss an extension, but only with good reason.

This is LYLO. NO ONE QUICK VOTE.

No quick voting please. Discussion is good. I want to go back and re read and figure things out. Will have more thoughts later.

Are we popcorning or just in whatever order?
Also please no quick voting.

etc. Like, when I'm town I am actually interested in solving the game's puzzle, and as a wolf I'm not and often don't really put all that much effort into pretending to be (just like I didn't put all that much effort in during that game, but fortunately was able to stand back and watch the town just implode).

Now, if I'm a wolf then this game would be different in that I've attracted some pushback and would have had to be more active (plus if I'm a wolf I'd be flying solo at this point). But I guess the question here would be, do you really think this is more similar to my wolf meta than my town meta? And if so, why?

[mhsmith0]

seems pretty consistent with that viewpoint, for instance. Like, do you not think it's believable that someone who seemed to only bother to do one read-through of the thread before getting into things wouldn't have bothered to remember who was voting for who? If he was a wolf, then he'd probably be aware of who was on karnos and was just faking this note. Do you think it's fake? Or do you think that he, as a wolf, would simply not bother to keep track of who's voting his buddy?

Lean fake yeah.

So what about it reads fake in particular? You're arguing that the post itself reads like he was lying about not knowing the VC; what about his tone or wording seems fake?

Also, what do you think of that as an excuse not to vote, given the realistic chance that someone (whether the mod or just another player) would simply tell him who was voting for karnos? That seems like a really strange excuse to make to put off voting for a buddy, and one which had high risk of getting exposed as a lie. What makes you think that a buddy would even try such a ploy in that situation when it seems to be low reward and high risk?

Also, to be clear, you agree that the original note was a very weird thing for karnos to say to his buddy? But you still think it was something that karnos did in fact say to his buddy?

I don't think Karnos would say that to buddy. In regards to that challenge, I only think KC's reaction to it was bad.

So you've already conceded that the interaction from karnos's end doesn't seem consistent with w/w; based on that concession, it seems like you'd need a really strong reason to think that KC's side of it was fake. Please expand on this, since it seems like an important part of your read, especially given what you just said about what karnos said.

Is it your opinion that I should have been directly attacking him with it, even though I had an overall town read, and other data (including the number and quality of interactions between Thor and karnos) made Thor look very town? I touched base on my opinion on thor wrt that info at viewtopic.php?p=8250571#p8250571

Yeah why not? It's not like it's a clear town read in the first place. Also I think if you're scum then this is you setting up for a Thor lynch after I get lynched.

How do you think Thor isn't a clear town read? I've been pretty clear throughout the game that he was my strongest town read. What exactly have I done that makes you think that I'm trying to set up for a Thor lynch? Given how clear I've been on my Thor town read this seems like a strategy that is particularly poor for me to take as a wolf, to have to reverse my stated town read and try and sell that as somehow genuine.

Like, I could maybe see the argument that you think that I have Thor pocketed and am trying to manipulate him, but to actively try and get him mislynched? Given everything I'd said about him during the game, including my reinforcing of that read given the interactions stuff? That's a pretty non-sensical strategy on my end if I'm the last wolf. Why do you think that this is what I'm actually trying to do?

I also discussed the implications of the NK (as I saw it) fairly extensively; look at my ISO between 1649 and 1763. I've also been discussing other info, including interactions (most notably at 1830), VCA, etc. I'm putting information into the thread, and pretty openly working through the implications as I see them. Why do you think this is wolf-indicative of me? Am I just trying to simulate a town process? Am I trying to do something actively pro-wolf? If you think I'm the goon here, I want to know why exactly you think this.

Well yeah wolf can simulate being town. That's how town generally wins in the first place.

Well, really towns win when wolves fail at simulating being town. But this seems like a pretty weak argument on your end if all you have is that I'm trying to simulate a town process. How can you tell that apart from the idea that I'm posting this because I'm actually town and my process is actually a town process?

[Transcend]

Give me time to read through all this, I won't do it now, but I will do it later.

[Transcend]

Still would like to lynch Rosske(slot) and I still think he replaced out due to getting lynched but we'll see.

[tojam2]

VC Day 4 - 8

Transcend L-3 - Rosske
MariaF L-3 - Transcend
Tenshii L-2 - Thor665, gigabyteTroubadour
mhsmith0 L-3 - Wingback

(expired on 2016-08-29 23:00:00)

Please welcome MariaF!

[Transcend]

@tojam2

what's going to happen with the whole replace thing?

[tojam2]

I'm guessing my post-editing messed you up. Rosske put the replacement notice up for me, and I got a reply early this morning, I didn't see it until now though, I come on once a day to do this then that's it, you have to wait 24 hours or get lucky before I read anything.

[Transcend]

VOTE: MariaR

[gigabyteTroubadour]

hi mariaf

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@Mod, why is mhsmith voting for himself by that i mean i believe wingback is voting for him

[MariaR]

GUESS WHO'S HERE

[MariaR]

I've only read a little but right now I'm loving a transcend lynch and disliking a Giga lynch