Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[Wingback]

@Gigabyte, 1) It may have been a joke but you used that joke to vote KTS rather than justify it with actual reasoning which is what strikes me as suspicious. 2) You did say plenty of times that you thought KTS was town too. 3) A quick glance at Rosske's only completed town game tells you he was lynched D1 so why is he not lynchbait when Phantom is? 3) I don't see what's ridiculous about suspecting you. You were involved in the Karnos lynch along with several others including Thor, Io, and mhsmith. Considering it's somewhat likely that someone bussed given how Karnos was the sole wagon that was gaining steam with no counterwagons, I think it's reasonable to consider the possibility that it was you.

[Transcend]

Tb5h54hrjrj

Who are you thinking of lynching then. I thought you were pro Ross in terms of a lynch.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

1. Did I not say that I liked Luna's case against KTS? His quickhammer could have had a strategic purpose in silencing discussion, I swear I've said this but I don't ISO myself and I've only started to re-read the game now. I was going back and forth on it because of Rosske's "townslip" and because I townread KTS most of D1.

2. Well, yes, but reads can change.

3. I also read his newbie where he played under the name arak-and-shrug and he wasn't lynched D1. He was also key to winning that game, since he was the town jailkeeper and they lynched the mafia roleblocker D1 (Charloux, who is the lynchbaitiest lynchbait). One game is also not enough to have an established meta where you can call a player "lynchbaity", Phantom has been on the site much longer and I feel better putting a label on him like that.

4. No, suspecting me alone is not ridiculous, but saying I'm scummy because I'm posting elsewhere and posting less than before just shows I'm not interested in the game as much.

idk transcend my vote's on tenshii right now

[Transcend]

Okay so what would your 3 shots to hit one duck in order be?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

probably

Tenshii/Rosske > Rosske/Tenshii > Mhsmith

i have pretty solid townreads on everyone else

[gigabyteTroubadour]

rereading the game now, if i have any thoughts i'll say something

[Transcend]

So you'd compromise on Rosske rope if it came time for a lynch to be decided?

I'd regrettably vote tenshii but only if tenshii needed to be hammered to fulfill the fact we used a mislynch and didn't hand it over to scum.

[Wingback]

@Transcend, how does Karnos treat his partners in the other game where you saw him as scum? Does he bus/townread/distance?

[Transcend]

he actually bussed one of his partners (sircakez) on lylo actually

not sure why you're asking this when all the slots karnos voted are dead (did the guy only ever vote io?)

[Transcend]

yeah i just looked at his iso

he only voted me in rvs and io

[Wingback]

Wanted to see if he had any repeating trends with regards to how he treats partners. In the game I played with him, he was strongly scumreading one partner and weakly scumreading the other.

I think if Karnos was townreading someone, that makes them slightly less likely to be his partner. It's not a lock-in but I want to see if I can eliminate anyone from being his partner.

[Transcend]

idon't actually remember his play but i think he was focused on just getting a ml on io in.

[tojam2]

VC Day 4 - 7

Transcend L-3 - Rosske
Rosske L-2 - Transcend, Tenshii
Tenshii L-2 - Thor665, gigabyteTroubadour

(expired on 2016-08-29 09:30:00)

No new votes (again).

@Rosske: What is confusing you?

@Wingback: Have you caught up okay?

[Transcend]

Prodging and trolling the rest of this day until you dipsticks make up your mind. It's a mafia game. It's not like your life is at stake. It's just a stupid bloody mafia game. Kill Rosske already.

[Wingback]

Felt like I didn't have a good handle of the game so I went through all reads again to see what I found. Tl;dr, I think Thor, Tenshii, Gigabyte, and Transcend are all very likely town. I think our lynch today should be between mhsmith and Rosske. While I don't mind lynching Rosske, I find that the nightkill heavily points against him, and that the way mhsmith jumped on the Karnos wagon is the scummiest Karnos interaction of all players in the game. Gigabyte, and Thor pushed Karnos early and Thor deathtunnelled him. Transcend and Tenshii hard-defended him and put themselves out there. Rosske ignored him. Mhsmith started out pushing Luna and out of nowhere posted a Karnos case when Karnos was at L-1 and then started asking people if they disagree with the points brought up against him which I see as a moderately strong scumtell.

1. Thor - Town

a) Pretty much comes down to his meta of not bussing which he genuinely seems to believe in, his hard push on Karnos, the fact that he could find lots of distractions if he wanted.

b) The fact that coming off too pro-town means that he'd have to explain his continued survival. Better to soft-bus in a way that gets him a lean town read rather than be front and center of the Karnos bus. Especially makes sense when he as town pushed scum lynches in the past and got accused of bussing.

2. Tenshii - Town

a) Early scumhunting of Karnos came across as very genuine and was extremely similar to the reasons why I incorrectly townread Karnos in the game I played with him. Tenshii asked Karnos why he made Post 70. Karnos justified it well in Post 140. Tenshii's subsequent townread there seems very reasonable. Karnos has a tendency to explain things he's done in a way that fits well with his actions. It's one of his strengths as scum and why some people tend to townread him.

b) Given Karnos' flip, I find the entirety of Post 176 a very strong towntell. Have a hard time believing scum go to the extent of defending their partners that Tenshii did in Post 338 and Post 363 where he breaks down all of Thor's arguments and explains it for Karnos. Scum tend to perceive such a move as dangerous and it takes a very bold scum to go there.

c) Already mentioned this but Post 496 is an odd way to consider hopping onto a partner's wagon - simply because he wants the Karnos distraction gone. He already said he wasn't townreading Karnos so this fits. If he were scum wanting to cut his losses, I'm sure he could have found a reason to scumread Karnos amidst the mountain of evidence against him.

d) The fact that he was doing a lot of genuine scumhunting of the Karnos wagon lends credence to the idea that he truly thought that Karnos was a likely mislynch wagon that he could find scum from.

e) Non-Karnos related stuff: Suggestion to lynch him in Post 1503 is a minor towntell. Attempt to game the mod is another minor towntell although I don't know what exactly he was planning which makes this not as strong.

f) Suspicion of Thor reads genuine. This is not a very compelling point given it's basically omgus but I think a scum-Tenshii has a lot of easier targets to attack but the paranoia of Thor bussing and his being incredulous of Thor letting Rosske and Transcend get away with their play is town also. I see this as a newbie thinking that a good player like Thor would surely notice the other scummy players in the room rather than tunnel in on him. Pushing that Thor bussed Karnos is a pretty hard sell too.

3. Gigabyte - Most likely town, investigate more in LYLO

a) The part where Gigabyte assumes they won the game doesn't look fake and I went through another completed game of Gigabytes and they had similar reactions upon the final hammer starting from here over the next few pages. I wonder why they so easily bought that KTS was telling the truth though given that they had been trolled before and KTS gave out a list of reads. It seemed genuine enough but if Gigabyte is still alive in LYLO, they should be re-evaluated from scratch as opposed to assumed confirmed town for the reaction.

b) Initial push on Karnos out of RQS and interaction with him. My first impression was that Gigabyte was town and I didn't see anything contrived in the push nor do I think bussing at that point makes a lot of sense. Happy to put Gigabyte on the backburner.

4. Transcend - Most likely town, investigate more in LYLO

a) Initial townread came from how his lynch order made sense to me (Rosske + mhsmith) because I too was reading Tenshii as town upon replacing in and that townread is back. I think he was all over the place this game and that was confusing but on balance, probably likelier town than not. I think he makes a good point on Gigabyte and his read on Tenshii is very likely accurate.

b) This is more of a personality tell but someone as antagonistic as Transcend probably wouldn't want to put himself into the position of "the game's jackass" to use his words. He'd want more credibility. Although once he started defending Karnos, turning around at that point when his wagon was gaining steam would be a risky move.

c) Defense of Karnos makes sense if he tends to misread Karnos. Still found his twilight reactions rather overblown and saying that people will accuse him of knowing Karnos will flip town is a smart move as scum because once Karnos flips scum, people will assume that Transcend really did not know Karnos' alignment, and I think Transcend is decent enough as scum to pull it off. But it also makes a lot of sense from someone who genuinely thought Karnos was town that was lynched over his protests and anticipates being attacked the following day for "knowing that Karnos was town." Another player that needs serious re-evaluation in LYLO but I'm happy to call town for now.

I think our lynch today should be between Rosske and Mhsmith

[Wingback]

Rosske - Possible scum

1. I don't see his "Karnos, why aren't you voting Thor" as a scumtell at all contrary to Transcend. Given most of page sixteen was Karnos and Thor tunneling each other, I see it as a legitimate question to ask why Karnos isn't voting Thor. Doesn't matter that Rosske's vote was on KTS. I see this pretty clearly as him trying to gauge Karnos' motivations rather than asking for support on Thor. Post 430 makes it blatantly clear that that was what he was trying to do. NULL here.

2. Do find the vote on Io in Post 463 very opportunistic given that the Io/Karnos were the major wagons at the time. Vote count in Post 457 shows Karnos with three votes, Thor with two, and Io with two. Rosske's vote ties Io as a major wagon with Karnos. Given he was questioning Karnos earlier about voting Io over Thor, I'm not sure how his next logical leap is to vote Io. The fact that he gives zero reasons for it is a concern as well. Appealing to Luna to vote Io reads like a transparent attempt to kick up a counterwagon to Karnos. SCUMMY here.

@Rosske;

Really need you to explain why you pushed Io at the time that you did. You can't just be voting for "reactions" without giving reasoning. If that's all you have, I'm going to assume it's more likely you were drawing attention away from your partner.

Points in Rosske's favor:
1. Nightkill. This is the biggest one really. Have a hard time seeing him kill Io over Thor or Giga.
2. Meta. Upon a closer look, this is actually weaker than I thought. While I agree with Thor that he's more wordy as scum, and I also think more formal and willing to read the game rather than the idgaf attitude here, a lot of how he develops reads, and how he pushes scumreads isn't all that different from his scumplay so I'm willing to vote here today.
3. This specific post "How likely would it be for two town players to death tunnel in on each other like we've done?" seems like he's setting up to 1v1 Transcend and I don't see why he'd want to do that when he could just let someone get lynched and continue chugging along doing what he's doing tomorrow.

In summary, this guy has a decent chance of flipping scum and I don't want him around in LYLO. Percentage-wise, I'd say 35% each on Rosske/mhsmith. 10% each on Transcend/Gigabyte, and 5% each on Thor/Tenshii. Lynching him over mhsmith makes sense given how thoughtful and interested in solving the game mhsmith is and leaving around someone like Rosske in lylo isn't something that I'm okay with.

I'll try and re-read Rosske's ISO (it's short enough so shouldn't take too long) and try and nail down an mhsmith read tonight. Unless something super-scummy pops up, I'll vote Rosske. Otherwise, I'll vote mhsmith.

[Wingback]

Based on Karnos interactions, the fact that Karnos tried to bait Kcdaspot into hammering him (Post 231) points somewhat strongly to mhsmith being scum. Why ask a townie with a short fuse and an erratic playstyle to hammer? Kcdaspot might as well have hammered there for all Karnos knew. Then Karnos puts Kcdaspot in his scumreads along with Thor and Io. Fits with his bussing meta and also, he spent a LOT of time arguing with Thor and Io but in Post 386, kcdaspot and Io are his top scumreads with Thor as a lighter scumread.

Interaction with Rosske in Post 506 is actually the exact same thing Karnos did with me in Mini 1800 when I misread him which might point slightly towards Rosske as town.

The more I think about it, the more I'm feeling decently confident it's actually mhsmith.

[Wingback]

I'm not going to re-read a 200 page-long ISO but key points that stuck out to me:

1) Mhsmith's case and jump onto Karnos is the only one out of everyone here that makes sense as a smooth hop onto a bus wagon. Everyone else has interactions that stick out in a way that is unlikely to be bussing (except Rosske but he has the nightkill going for him).

2) Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing.

3) Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim.

4) Mhsmith's subtle push on Transcend after I outlined suspicion of him without explicitly agreeing with me and using information he had for months is a scummy positioning move.

VOTE: Mhsmith

This is who I think will slip scum. There's no real reason I can find to townread him other than lots of effort but that's something I could see him doing as scum given how thorough and focused and determined to win he is in his other games regardless of alignment. I could see him kill outside Thor for the WIFOM and chaos.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not going to re-read a 200 page-long ISO but key points that stuck out to me:

1) Mhsmith's case and jump onto Karnos is the only one out of everyone here that makes sense as a smooth hop onto a bus wagon. Everyone else has interactions that stick out in a way that is unlikely to be bussing (except Rosske but he has the nightkill going for him).

2) Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing.

When did I ask people this? Citations needed. I re-isod myself and I see myself challenging people who had town reads on karnos or were pushing elsewhere. Where did I ask "what they thought of the evidence against Karnos"?

3) Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim.

I didn't react because it was stupidly obvious as a fake out. Also precisely three people (Luna, trans, giga) reacted, and Luna's reaction was just a quick response to trans.

How is this even suggestive much less indicative?

4) Mhsmith's subtle push on Transcend after I outlined suspicion of him without explicitly agreeing with me and using information he had for months is a scummy positioning move.

How was my push subtle and representative of "positioning" as opposed to an actual effort to sort him? Do you think my vote and then unvote was fake? If so, what in that sequence pings you as being fake?

VOTE: Mhsmith

This is who I think will slip scum. There's no real reason I can find to townread him other than lots of effort but that's something I could see him doing as scum given how thorough and focused and determined to win he is in his other games regardless of alignment. I could see him kill outside Thor for the WIFOM and chaos.

Which of my wolf games gm have you read to make the determination that effort is not alignment indicative for me?

For that matter, which of my town games have you read to conclude that I'm consistently "thorough and focused and determined to win"?

[mhsmith0]

with that based on what ive seen its karnos and KTL for the scumteam secondary scummy reads on luna and GT (gut mainly)

ANNNNNNND

VOTE: KTS

We real now

pedit: now that you mention that and transcend is not far off of making the list either.

If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?

@wing: When have you seen karnos interact with a buddy in this manner? You've discussed his "bussing meta"; where have you seen him challenge a buddy to vote him like this?

Also, you say "Why ask a townie with a short fuse and an erratic playstyle to hammer? Kcdaspot might as well have hammered there for all Karnos knew. ". Why would you presume karnos didn't know the vote count? This seems much likelier to be a fake attempt to project not knowing the vote count than a fake "I'll get my buddy to hammer" bit. Are you aware of a meta of karnos being clueless as to vote counts (iirc he was at like 4 votes then, WELL away from the hammer point)?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I mean, I agree with the point that mhsmith's vote was the most likely to be a bussing vote, but I felt he naturally went into it. By your readslist, I'd want to push for Rosske.

I should mention that from rereading, I really dislike Tenshii's basises for his scumreads, but not in a "he's scum" way. They seem to be things new players believe are scummy, whether scum or town.

[Wingback]

@Mhsmith,

1) Re: evidence against Karnos, this was what I was referring to that pinged me:

Why do you town read karnos? You said he was similar to your newbie game meta; but

what did you think of the specific points raised against him?

And if you don't want karnos lynched, what is your lynch pool you're willing to vote on? I see Luna, who else? Pc/Ross?

2) That's right, you didn't react to KTS. Gigabyte reaction made them more likely town because it looked very much like a town reaction and that helped me solidify a townread there to POE the game down to basically just you. I'm not saying your lack of reaction is necessarily scummy. You just haven't done anything that's extremely town.

3) Your vote on Transcend came right after I pushed suspicion on him. But you never mentioned anything I said. That means you expect me to believe that it's a co-incidence that we've both arrived at a Transcend scumread at the same time. If my posting swayed you, town would be more transparent about it and agree. If not, I don't buy the co-incidence. Scum tend to be more afraid of overtly agreeing with something a townie said and would much rather change their stances but in a way that makes it seem as though they arrived there independently.

4) The unvote looked fake because it showed that your vote lacked conviction. I find many scum are more likely to not push an aggressive town player and to unvote more easily in the face of aggression because they are afraid that other townies will see it as obvtown and they're left with a stale vote hanging there. Not all scum players do this. For instance, I wouldn't expect Transcend or Thor to back down so easily. But you fit the profile of analytical scum who has trouble faking overt conviction in your pushes.

5) I read the one newbie scumgame you played on site where half your ISO was feedback to the town. The town game I read was Quaroth's game which went on forever with multiple no lynches. You were obviously town in the latter. In the former, the way you offered feedback, and how you talked about hating your losses so much that it forces you to become a better player showed me how thoughtful and determined you are to improve. In any case, that's not a reason why I'm seeing you as scum. It's just why I don't find your *effort* indicative of alignment.

Mostly, I have stronger reasons to townread everyone else and you fit a lot better as scum than Rosske.

[Wingback]

@wing: When have you seen karnos interact with a buddy in this manner? You've discussed his "bussing meta"; where have you seen him challenge a buddy to vote him like this?

I never said I specifically saw him challenge a buddy to vote. I think it's less likely he would bait a town player into voting him than a partner.

[Wingback]

I mean, I agree with the point that mhsmith's vote was the most likely to be a bussing vote, but I felt he naturally went into it. By your readslist, I'd want to push for Rosske.

I should mention that from rereading, I really dislike Tenshii's basises for his scumreads, but not in a "he's scum" way. They seem to be things new players believe are scummy, whether scum or town.

Not feeling Rosske as scum for a) the nightkill which has been hashed to death but remains a legitimate point. b) the way he asked Thor if Thor really thought that him and Transcend were TvT. He's setting up to 1v1 Transcend and I don't see it very likely for a scum player in this situation to do that. He'd be much better off just letting Tenshii get lynched and continuing the same tunnel with Transcend the following day.

Mhsmith's vote on Karnos wasn't one I found natural. Most of his case and reasoning uses stuff from before he replaced in but when he replaced in, all of his focus is around Luna Fox and he never gives off the impression that he's scumreading Karnos.

Mhsmith's predecessor kcdaspot has mentioned Karnos as a scumread several times but instead of voting the Karnos wagon which was bigger, he tunnels KTS. It reeks of knowing Karnos was town but trying to distract the wagon by pushing someone else. ISO him and Ctrl+F "Karnos" to see my issue with him. I also thought his "Thor man, don't let me down, breathe KC breathe" gimmick read as really fake but I wasn't sure whether I just found it annoying or scummy." Thor is a rather opaque player so I find that too-early Thor townread probably comes from knowing Thor was town.

[Transcend]

Would be an advocate of smith rope. Just not my numero uno choice.