Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Trojan Horse]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #56

Oman[1](pwayne66)
Trojan Horse[1](Oman)


Not Voting[4](vollkan, Tarhalindur, Trojan Horse, theopor_COD)

More work = less time to look at games. I apologize for falling behind. I want to eventually comment on this whole vollkan/pwayne thing (is pwayne's vote on Oman justified?). But for now, let me respond to vollkan.

1) He rebuts the suggestion that he was following CKD in prodding MoS by saying that he only cared

because

it was MoS. The strange thing is, that even in theo's own analysis he quotes TH saying:

Okay, MoS posted a bunch of times (in other games) yesterday evening. So he's definitely around.

He makes no mention of the fact that MoS being MoS is actually important.

Okay, so I didn't mention IN THAT POST that my concern was that it was specifically MoS that hadn't posted yet. But I did mention it a few posts later. Post 89, to be exact.

My apologies, MoS, on focusing on your lack of posting in this game. I guess it was more noticeable than the absence of acfan or theopor, since you're more well-known on this site (IMO). But anyway...

2) Theo made a point that TH was using a "broken scumdar" as an excuse for finding scum, lumping this (for some reason) with the point that TH had given an early defence of FA. TH doesn't address the first of these and instead solely responds to the FA point, saying he just didn't find FA more scummy than anybody else on average. In other words, he avoided the point about not using "broken scumdar" as an excuse for not scumhunting.

Well, if there's any doubt about my scumdar being broken, check out the four players who have been nightkilled so far. I suspected them all at some point, but only one turned out to be a bad guy (and he was the cult recruiter, not a scum). Check post 729:

Let me give you the sum total of my thoughts right now. I actually have 4 suspects in mind right now, and I would find it tough to vote for anyone else. In approximate order of scumminess:

tyhess: I know, I know, he's an easy target. But easy targets can be scum too. I think all his opportunistic bandwagon hopping is too much, even for a newb. If there had been a night round at the start, I wouldn't be as concerned. I would think tyhess is newbtown, since I would assume any newbscum would be cautioned by more experienced scummates not to stand out in the crowd. But we started with day. Could be tyhess is newbscum, and hasn't been forewarned.

MoS: It's still about how long it took for him to focus on a suspect at the start. Not something I would attack most players for, but this is MoS after all. Incidentally, if he is scum, that would've been a brilliant move on his part: pushing me into voting, knowing that everyone else would jump on me for it. But it's his behavior early in the game that I'm mostly concerned about.

curiouskarmadog: If you want to attack me for "flying under the radar" (as someone said), why aren't you attacking this guy too? We're in the same boat.

White: This would be my final option. He's been taking control since he replaced in, putting pressure on several people in turn. Scummy? Not in and of itself. That's what players do: look for scumtells. But is this his usual style of play? As I did with MoS, I'm going to take a quick look at some other games he's in and see if he's doing the same thing. If he is, fine. If not, I'll give him the eye of suspicion.

But more to the point: I have spent some time looking at everyone's posts and trying to find scummier things than just "Oh, MoS hasn't settled on anyone yet, strange for him" and "Oh, tyhess is hopping like crazy, could be scum". Had I found stronger evidence than that, I would've brought it up.

I admit, too many times I've watched two (or three) players go back and forth in a huge argument, and I've sat there and thought it was a null tell for both. "This looks like an argument between two townies with weak evidence. Not sure why this even started. Both are looking like the typical protowner right now. Scum must be happy right now." MoS summed it up well when he said a case could be made against anyone. And that has really frustrated me.

3) Uses this impaired ability to scumhunt as an excuse for his "nicey-nicey" scumdar.

Alright, I'll stop making excuses. But it's the truth.

4) Theo makes a good point that TH actually makes himself sound scummiest, and calls this being apologetic. TH says that he just wanted to be "comprehensive".

I want to carry my own weight in this game. Don't just want to follow the crowd. I was having trouble finding scumtells. Perhaps I shouldn't have been so apologetic about that.

But as for my being "comprehensive", I think I've been consistent in that regard. When theo was doing breakdowns of various players during day 2, I wanted us to pitch in and do one for him. When you were doing breakdowns today, vollkan, I did one for you. Is it silly for me to add in what I expect to be the main argument against me, when I do my scumdar for everyone else? (Ok, maybe it's silly, but I did it anyway.)

5) The whole giving in to MoS's pressure and voting tyhess thing he puts down to frustration at being wishy-washy and having nothing to go on. This is effectively an emotional excuse and TH doesn't seem to be a particularly emotional player. Possible inconsistency.

Yes, that was an inconsistency. I'm not usually an emotional player, but that was a rare moment of emotion for me.

6) Argues that we should consider lynching lurkers because we don't want the scum to be able to hide. The problem with this is, obviously, that town are just as likely to be lurking as scum are. Hence, lynching them is hardly helpful.

Call it a meta, if you want. I don't want the game to degenerate into a lurk-a-thon, which would only help the scum. I want people to talk. (If a scum managed to lurk the whole game, and survived the whole game, and won, I'd be REALLY mad. Fortunately, doesn't look like that'll happen; the only remaining player who could be called a serious lurker is Tar, and I really doubt he's scum.)

[vollkan]

Okay, so I didn't mention IN THAT POST that my concern was that it was specifically MoS that hadn't posted yet. But I did mention it a few posts later. Post 89, to be exact.

This is true. Thanks for resolving that one.

Well, if there's any doubt about my scumdar being broken, check out the four players who have been nightkilled so far. I suspected them all at some point, but only one turned out to be a bad guy (and he was the cult recruiter, not a scum).

Well, it does not really indicate brokenness. I think everybody has suspected almost everybody at some point. My issue, as you no doubt gather, is that a "broken scumdar" is a rather convenient excuse.

But as for my being "comprehensive", I think I've been consistent in that regard. When theo was doing breakdowns of various players during day 2, I wanted us to pitch in and do one for him. When you were doing breakdowns today, vollkan, I did one for you. Is it silly for me to add in what I expect to be the main argument against me, when I do my scumdar for everyone else? (Ok, maybe it's silly, but I did it anyway.)

Well, I don't doubt you being comprehensive. The thing is that I see "self-scumminess" admissions as a form of apologetics and damage control. Sort of like that if you confess your sins you will be absolved and not get hunted down for them. It isn't necessarily a scumtell, but it has an unhelpful neutralising effect which is anti-town in the long run.

Call it a meta, if you want. I don't want the game to degenerate into a lurk-a-thon, which would only help the scum. I want people to talk. (If a scum managed to lurk the whole game, and survived the whole game, and won, I'd be REALLY mad. Fortunately, doesn't look like that'll happen;

the only remaining player who could be called a serious lurker is Tar, and I really doubt he's scum.

)

This is an aside point:

Tar is really worrying me right now, based on some things I have seen meta. I have seen him pull some pretty nifty gambits before and know he is adept at appearing protown. It wouldn't be out of character for him to claim vanilla as scum and thereby render himself lynch immune. I mean, we've seen virtually nothing from him other than completely unreadable play by Dr. BS and then Tar popping up, claiming vanilla and then retreating.

Theo, for similar reasons of lurking, is also a concern (given his earlier play).

[pwayne66]

@Oman- You say that TH dropped many early scumtells. I think an accounting is in order. What were those scum tells?

[Oman]

NOOOOOO Now I need to distill the thread.

GG.

I'll be back in an hour or too.

[vollkan]

NOOOOOO Now I need to distill the thread.

Why does that register in my head as "NOOOO Now I need to justify my actions"?

[Oman]

It should register as "NOOOO 56 pages!"

[vollkan]

Speaking of which, finding a replacement for theo (and Tar?) is going to be a chore

[pwayne66]

Yeah, I have a bad feeling about this.

[Tarhalindur]

It should register as "NOOOO 56 pages!"

QFT... and I'm running up on university-related limited access to boot.

[pwayne66]

So no thought here tar?

[Trojan Horse]

You don't have to go over all 56 pages, Tar. Just look at the PBPA's. That's what we made 'em for.

Brief thing to mention: remember how suspicious of tyhess I was at the start, because of all the bandwagon hopping he was doing? Well, I took another look at the thread with the mafia parser; among other things, it gives a final breakdown of the votes and FoSes cast by each player. And one person in particular has put tyhess to shame. Strange I didn't notice it before. *eyes Oman suspiciously*

Of course, tyhess turned up town, so I can't use that as evidence by itself. I'm going to take a closer look at each of Oman's votes. Some I'll ignore (like his random vote at the start) but some I'll want him to explain. Expect my list of questions tomorrow.

By the way:

Most scummy:

1) Oman
T-3) Vollkan
T-3) theo
T-3) TH
T-4) Tar

Replace my name with yours, pwayne, and you've got my list. I know I said at the start of this day that I wasn't that concerned with theo, because of the breakdowns he took the time to make during day 2. But now vollkan and pwayne have taken time to do the same. Combine that with theo's vanishing, and theo's now even with vollkan and pwayne in my mind.

[Guardian]

I'm searching for a replacement for theopor_COD, who didn't pick up his prod. If there is any other action I need to take, let me know.

[Trojan Horse]

Reread. And now my thoughts are shifting again. I guess the fact that Oman has had more votes/unvotes than anyone else is deceptive, for two reasons:

1. There were a couple of times that he switched votes to vote for a lurker, then switched back again when the lurker posted. Can't fault him for that.

2. Unlike tyhess, who kept stepping onto each of the major bandwagons, some of Oman's votes were solo votes (no one else on the wagon). So they weren't really "opportunistic votes", like tyhess's appeared to be. Guess Oman is just a bit more apt to express his opinions with a vote than the rest of us.

Anyway, I looked over his votes, and most of them seemed reasonable at the time. In fact, I have just one question to ask:

Oman, why did you hammer Flameaxe? I know you said you don't like self-hammers (and I don't blame you), but did you really think hammering him yourself would be any better?

[Oman]

Yes, TH, I do think so. Basically it leaves someone (me) to be questioned. The scum try to take me down with it, or the town post good questions about it, or whatever, the point is its a very strong topic that leads to very very revealing conversation (okay, so maybe its not as good as I wished it was).

Also, the lotsa vote thing is what you said it was, I like to keep my vote on the person I feel scummiest at the time. I'm the complete opposite of Vollkan (who asks lots of questions and then votes). I like to put the pressure down first and then question them while they (hopefully) sweat.

[vollkan]

I guess the fact that Oman has had more votes/unvotes than anyone else is deceptive

As you have now learnt, number alone is a bad indicator.

Yes, TH, I do think so. Basically it leaves someone (me) to be questioned. The scum try to take me down with it, or the town post good questions about it, or whatever, the point is its a very strong topic that leads to very very revealing conversation (okay, so maybe its not as good as I wished it was).

Well, for starters, I do not blame you for the "hammer". I say that because TH said:"Oman, why did you hammer Flameaxe?"

I hold as a rule: First on the wagon is just as culpable as the last.

My quibble is purely with your "vote". Your explanation makes [sense[/i], but it just doesn't strike me as a good reason. I mean, self-hammering is stupid because it prevents someone being caught on the wagon, but hammering to prevent self-hammering seems just as pointless.

[Oman]

Like I said previously Vollkan, if someone self-hammers, you cannot question them. Conversation finds scum therefore living hammerer > dead hammerer.

[vollkan]

Yes, I know that. I just can't make sense of it given that if you want information, the best way is to wait for someone else to hammer. I can't see myself hammering a person purely because I don't want that person to hammer themself when I could wait to see who else would be willing to hammer so I could have another potential suspect.

I don't think you're scummy for it; it's just something that I don't quite get.

[Guardian]

If any of you have friends who might be willing to replace, feel free to PM them:

Title:
'Replace for Mini 500: Cult Mafia?'

Text:
'Hey, I am in Mini 500: Cult Mafia. It is day 3, 56 pages, and 6 players remain. The game needs a replacement, and I would love to play with you! If you would be interested in replacing, PM Guardian, the mod. This PM was approved by him.

Thanks!'


I will continue trying to find one myself, of course...

[Tarhalindur]

I've looked over the PBPA's and most players' posts, and my (abbreviated) thoughts so far:

Vollkan looks very pro-town, especially when I look at his scumdar posts. This is primarily due to him giving lots of what I consider quality analysis (a strong town tell IMO).

Trojan Horse also looks pro-town for much the same reasons - he posts lots of analysis to go with information. The main strike against him is his indecisiveness early in D1 (wishy-washiness is usually a scumtell), but his later actions lead me to believe that this is the result of inexperience instead of being scum.

I need to look over Pwayne again before I decide on him. On the one hand, upon quick inspection he seems to focus on the cult more than everyone else, which I consider a mafia tell for much the same reasons that focusing on one mafia group in a game with multiple families is a scumtell. On the other hand, his D2 analysis feels genuine.

I have no read on Theopor - he lacks content, but this is understandable to me as he has had limited access for some time. I have first-hand experience as to how hard catching up is when you have limited access. I haven't checked for all of the good tells yet, though.

Oman is probably scum - from what I'm seeing, he's posted a lot of information but very little analysis, especially good analysis. This is scummy - I've seen many scum attempt to use information in the place of analysis in their attempts to blend in (no example atm - the best example is in an ongoing game).

[Oman]

Mod, have you tried the townies that have died in this game? They could replace in (and would be more up to speed).

[vollkan]

Good to see something substantial Tar. It gives us another perspective on things, which can only help.

Trojan Horse also looks pro-town for much the same reasons - he posts lots of analysis to go with information. The main strike against him is his indecisiveness early in D1 (wishy-washiness is usually a scumtell), but his later actions lead me to believe that this is the result of inexperience instead of being scum.

This seems a sensible way of rationalising TH's behaviour. He has posted what looks like very genuine analysis of late, so it is quite plausible that his earlier stuff was just characteristic inexperience.

Oman is probably scum - from what I'm seeing, he's posted a lot of information but very little analysis, especially good analysis. This is scummy - I've seen many scum attempt to use information in the place of analysis in their attempts to blend in (no example atm - the best example is in an ongoing game).

Just so I am sure I follow you: What you mean is the posting of things like observations without actually trying to undertake further reasoning and argument, right?

I may do a reread of Oman with this in mind. I tend to focus more on people's actions and suspicions than whether their content is meaningful, so this could make me see something new.

Mod, have you tried the townies that have died in this game? They could replace in (and would be more up to speed).

That's a good idea. Ideally it would be either MoS, tyhess or flameaxe, since they are the most up-to-date, obviously.

[Oman]

That second quote isn't mind. Its rather obvious, but just for the record.

[vollkan]

That's what happens when you copy quote tags

[Trojan Horse]

Looks like everyone still alive has voiced some suspicion of Oman during this round, except for Oman (of course) and theo (who's gone missing). Which could mean one of three things:

1. We're dead wrong, and the scum are looking to push yet another mislynch.
2. Oman is scum, and is being bussed by his teammate.
3. Oman and theo are the scum.

I don't mind saying that I'm liking possibility #3 more and more...

One thing I will say: I'm not going to cast a vote on anyone until theo has been found or replaced. We need to get that sixth voice into the mix.

[vollkan]

I don't mind saying that I'm liking possibility #3 more and more...

Did I miss a post where you explained this being likely?

One thing I will say: I'm not going to cast a vote on anyone until theo has been found or replaced. We need to get that sixth voice into the mix.

I support this. Another perspective is always useful.