The reason I don't want to no lynch is that scum get to remove an additional townie from the game. At this point, I really don't want to risk someone quickvoting and with KTS in the game, I honestly don't trust that he won't quickvote on a whim given his play so far. I don't want to place the game in the control of each individual townie but rather force consensus for every lynch. If you are not sure, who to lynch, I'd rather we discuss that now and then lynch.
The reason I'm confident it's not Mathblade/BBMolla is that Mathblade is incredibly obvious about who their scumpartners are. In
Mini 1800, Mathblade killed me N1 because she was afraid that my research into their meta would help me figure out their alignment as well as her partners. Her posts in the scum PT (
post 182,
post 183,
post 188 post 190,
post 195,
post 199,
post 200) all show this.
Mathblade's townread on BBMolla doesn't make sense in the slightest as partner to partner interactions. For one, players who are natural bussers as scum find it a bit difficult to move into strongly townreading their partners the way Mathblade did. Secondly, the way she offered zero good reasons but had a high-confidence read based on nearly nothing fits very well into how Mathblade treats townies when they are town. See
Mathblade's ISO in the game I'm talking about (Mini 1800) and Ctrl+F "johnny" who was the day one lynch and see Mathblade's comments on him. They continually defend him with no reasoning, just insisting that he was town. At one point, I felt like Mathblade was scum who knew that Johnny was town. I got the exact same feeling when Mathblade was defending BBMolla.
Obviously, there's going to be the argument of Mathblade manipulating her meta to trick me. The response to that is a) What I said above about players who bus. They tend to have an innate phobia of strongly townreading their partners because of how bad it might make them look, and b) The things I noticed about Mathblade are not behaviors that you can change on a whim.
Math/Elyse not only makes sense with Math's general meta, it fits with the general scum tactic of tying buddies to a townie. Both Mathblade and Elyse said that the other was scum with Hoopla but only wanted to lynch Hoopla. See Math's
Post 1363 and all the quotes inside it. She says she doesn't see a world where Hoopla is scum and Elyse is town. Meaning if Hoopla is scum, Elyse HAS to be. By that logic, she should be voting Elyse. She doesn't. She's set on Hoopla.
On Elyse's side, I see
Post 1122 as early distancing/tying Hoopla to Blankface. "No actual intent on getting Blankface lynched" is the type of subtle setting-up language I see as more likely to come from scum. Saying that the point I made about you (Egg) voting Vedith over Blankface was a decent point if Blankface is scum is another subtle slip-up where I could see her setting up to turn on you after Blankface's flip (
Post 1364). The thing is, what I pointed out about you voting Vedith over Blankface is one of the reasons I think you are town now given how obvious it is that Math is scum. In fact, that entire post reads as "you are making some decent points about Egg but I'm not completely sold, convince me."
When it dawned on me that Mathblade/Elyse was the most likely team, the way I saw the game playing out was scum kill Grendel (they did) -> we lynch Mathblade -> scum kill BBMolla -> we no lynch since we're in 4P mylo -> scum kill KTS. That sets up an Elyse/Wingback/Egg LYLO with me and you going after each other and Elyse being the "undecided" trying to see both sides of our argument. Once we give in and vote, she'd hammer. Anyways, that was my prediction and is a large reason I started fighting so hard against no lynching earlier today. It was that post by Elyse that gave me a good idea what to expect. You really should read that post and notice how she treats my scumread on you. I also played with Elyse before and can say with conviction that she's not this receptive to discussing my reads nor does she have the "I-see-where-you-are-coming-from-but-not-totally-sold-give-me-more" vibe.
BBMolla was actually dead-on when he said it was Elyse/Blankface. I didn't take him seriously at the time because there were so many other avenues I hadn't explored yet and wasn't close to having any answers. I also think Elyse's "Hoopla is scum for casting doubt on Molla" is a transparent attempt to get BBMolla on her side. I don't see her being bold enough to make that statement about a partner and it would serve no purpose. I don't think she's a bad town player who was unable to see that BBMolla wasn't confirmed and that Hoopla made the right call.
Elyse digging her heels in for a Hoopla lynch over Mathblade confirms what I thought. While it isn't individually scummy to want to lynch their top scumread as opposed to their second scumread when given the choice, it's more the fact that she
had
Hoopla at the top and Blankface as a backup. She was scumreading Blankface all the way from D1 but always found a way to lynch others (Vedith and Hoopla) over his slot. When Hoopla claimed VT, her interaction with you was to shut down Hoopla's claim as not meaning anything (
Post 1268,
Post 1270,
Post 1272). She gives herself an out "confbiasing" but it's notable how she resists going after the guy she's been pushing since D1.
Some of this is circumstantial but we're both agreed it's not KTS, and BBMolla doesn't make sense as scum with either Elyse or Mathblade. The two of them together make a ton of sense given their slot's play and positions in the game.
