Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Oman]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #54

Not Voting[6](Oman, vollkan, Tarhalindur, pwayne66, Trojan Horse, theopor_COD)

Hold on.

1:2:2 (is this right?)

NL
Vig/mafia cross-Kill: 1:1:1 Tar would claim and win regardless.

You're right 1 No Lynch and Tar wins.

I'm not sure who I feel happy lynching today. It would suck to lose this today or tonight.

[vollkan]

No, Ouman, we have 6 people alive. If Tar is recruit, it is 3:2:1 (town:mafia:cult)

The numbers according to vollkan:

These numbers ignore where vig and mafia target the same person. You are all smart enough to know it just means no change from the main limb of the numbers.

I have bolded all the scenarios where Tar can possibly win.

Mislynch

Mislynch = 2:2:1.
MafNK town = 1:2:1 (Tar cannot win here, because it goes NL, mafia NKs town and D4 opens at either 0:2:1 or 0:1:1 (if vig was the town) causing the mafia to win)

--VigNK mafia = 1:1:1

--VigNK Tar = 1:2:0 Mafia win
MafNK Tar = 2:2:0
--Vig NK town = 1:2:0 Mafia win
--Vig NK Mafia = 2:1:0

Mafia Lynch

Maflynch = 3:1:1
MafNK town = 2:1:1

--Vig NK town = 1:1:1

--Vig NK mafia = 2:0:1 Town win
--Vig NK Tar = 2:1:0
MafNK Tar = 3:1:0
--Vig NK town = 2:1:0
--Vig NK mafia = 3:0:0 Town win

No Lynch

No Lynch = 3:2:1

MafNK town = 2:2:1

(MafLynch on D4 makes it 2:1:1, mafNK town makesit 1:1:1)
--Vig NK town = 1:2:1
--Vig NK mafia = 2:1:1
--Vig NK Tar = 2:2:0
Maf NK Tar = 3:2:0
--Vig NK town = 2:2:0
--Vig NK mafia = 3:1:0

In 1:1:1,

MafLynch = 1:0:1 Cult win

Town lynch = 0:1:1 Mafia win (?)
Cult lynch - 1:1:0 Draw if vig is the remaining pro-town player, mafia win otherwise

The interesting thing is that because of the way the numbers have rolled so far (ie. the fact we have a 3:2:1 scenario) Tar only ever actually wins if it gets to the 1:1:1 situation, where he can still only win if the town player chooses to let him win.

[Oman]

So the best numbers for Tar would be to help us catch the scum.

TAR: DO IT!

[vollkan]

So the best numbers for Tar would be to help us catch the scum.

Yes, actually.

Notice there is one 1:1:1 outcome for each of mislynch, maflynch and nolynch

The mislynch one is actually the easiest for Tar to achieve. See, the vig won't be lynched, which means that the vig has a 2/3 chance of hitting the mafia (there is one other townie and two mafiosi) and triggering 1:1:1 (assuming the mafia NK town and not Tar)

The mafialynch one has the vig with a 2/3 chance again; there are 2 other townies and 1 mafioso. Tar needs a townie NKed to cause 1:1:1

The No Lynch one depends on the vig choosing not to NK, meaning it is really up to how confident the vig is.

Hence, I don't think that Tar really stands to benefit all that much no matter what happens. Which would explain his lack of interest.

[vollkan]

Ignore the "yes actually" at the start of my previous post. I wrote that before I realised that mislynch also has odds of 2/3; I initially made a maths blunder and had 1/4.

[Oman]

SHHHH! It was designed to get Tar active...you've ruined it now

I noticed you left out vig No Killing. I suppose it has little outcome on the results.

[vollkan]

Actually, there is one major reason why it might be to his advantage to help.

See, the mislynch Tar win requires a mislynch and a Vig NK of mafia. In other words, it requires a poor town decision and a good vig decision. These two may not be consistent with each other, since a mislynch tells no information about scumpartners and makes more people suspect. Thus, it is less likely to cause a good vig decision (ie. one that kills a mafioso)

In contrast, the mafialynch one requires a good town decision and a good vig decision, as well as giving the vig more information on which to use scumlinks to find a target.

Hence, Tar, your best bet is actually to help scumhunt

I noticed you left out vig No Killing. I suppose it has little outcome on the results.

To see the no vig outcome, just look at the mafia NK line only.

[Oman]

Oh right, thanks for that clear up.

[Tarhalindur]

My lack of scumhunting is due to a lack of time, not due to my alignment.

If there is still a recruit floating around, it's not me.

Luckily for this game, I've just been owned in a lot of other games, so I have some time to spare here. I'll take a look over the remaining players ASAP, hopefully tonight.

[vollkan]

I really wonder if Tar's return has any causal connexion to my numbers...

Anyway, you've promised content and a fresh perspective is just what we need right now.

I've just been owned in a lot of other games

[Oman]

Tar, if you are the recruit, you might as well claim. No-one is going to target you, and you have to hunt scum as much as we do.

[Tarhalindur]

I really wonder if Tar's return has any causal connexion to my numbers...

Anyway, you've promised content and a fresh perspective is just what we need right now.

I've just been owned in a lot of other games

No, it's because I got prodded.

Tar, if you are the recruit, you might as well claim. No-one is going to target you, and you have to hunt scum as much as we do.

One problem with this - I'm not the recruit. I don't know why, but CKD must have targeted someone else (or else there's a recruit-preventing effect in the game).

[Guardian]

I'm leet.

[Trojan Horse]

Tar, if you are the recruit, you might as well claim. No-one is going to target you, and you have to hunt scum as much as we do.

Heehee. I guess that was worth a shot, Oman. But I would've been really surprised if that had worked.

[Trojan Horse]

Continuing to run through the combinations in my mind. Tearing out my hair as I do so. If Tar's a mafia, he deserves the victory (and an Academy award) for his performance at the end of day 1. Scant chance of him being a mafia (though he may be a cultie). But everyone else... grr...

My top choice right now is Oman. He's only been in the middle of my scumdar list until now, but since MoS and tyhess were killed last night (two of my top suspects), Oman is suddenly at the top of my list. I'll keep perusing the PBPA's and look for something more solid to go on.

Tar, care to give us a scumdar?

[pwayne66]

TH continued:

851- Tempted to lurker lynch Tar.
865- Ask Kakeng to post his breakdown.
867- *BUMP* Come on Kakeng.
871- Defends oman for reading the thread in an hour. threatens to lynch some lurkers
873- MODPROD
884- Reprimands Tar for not "getting into game". Threatens to vote for Kakeng if no post tomorrow.
889- "Say what?" to Tar's claim
907- Thinks tar could be scum and pulled similar stunt in mafia 68. FOS Tar, FOS kakeng
913- we have to lynch Tar.
953- Tar's no confirmed townie. pwayne doesn't deserve FOS. Votes Kakeng
1006- White's cool and I'm wishy washy and impressionable but I won't vote for pwayne
1047- See nothing wrong with FA.
1060- Votes tyhess for newbish comments
1064- tyhess could be scum or be a newbie
1065- whoa simulpost. Votes Kakeng
1141- I guess I am newbish too...
1162- Not for a Tar lynch
1168- recruits can't recruit. tyhess is reasonable. won't join omanwagon
1181- FoS FA
1182- pulls hair out
1193- thinking about a FA lynch
1217- should do a breakdown of theo
1235- Long defense following Oman's vote on him
1236- Continued
1256- FA, you are at L-1
1259- I noticed the claim
1271- My scumdar is broken...eyes pwayne vollkan or Oman
1275- Not for mass claim
1287- WE NEED TO PROTECT TH VIG!


In all, TH doesn't appear as scummy as I once thought. Got tagged with a wishy-washy label but that is about it by my estimate.

My scummy:

1) Oman
T-2) theo
T-2) TH
T-4) Vollkan
T-4) Tar

Without further ado-

Vote: Oman

He needs to squirm abit. He is taking his position most suspicious too lightly.

[pwayne66]

EBWOP- Theo is higher here for his recent inactivity. Volk and Tar are at the bottom for the likelyhood that they are either cult or town. I am not concerned with them right now.

[pwayne66]

trifecta!!

Trojan Horse - Numerous small scum tells aggregated, but he cleared them up rather well yesterday. Still scummy, but significantly less so.

Do you have anything to add to this?

[Tarhalindur]

Question - why is Theopor being completely ignored?

There's a pretty strong case against him, IMO, especially given how much he seemed to focus on the Cult early in D1.

[pwayne66]

There's a pretty strong case against him, IMO, especially given how much he seemed to focus on the Cult early in D1.

Make your case. I'm all ears.

[Oman]

I'm almost ready to vote pwayne, firstly he's broken the ice on the voting, but mostly, TH is suddenly not that scummy.

I definatly will think about this.

[vollkan]

Without further ado- Vote: Oman

He needs to squirm abit. He is taking his position most suspicious too lightly.

Why is Oman most suspicious? I don't recall you having recently made any case against him.

Trojan Horse - Numerous small scum tells aggregated, but he cleared them up rather well yesterday. Still scummy, but significantly less so.

Do you have anything to add to this?

No.

Question - why is Theopor being completely ignored?

There's a pretty strong case against him, IMO, especially given how much he seemed to focus on the Cult early in D1.

As I think my PBPA showed, he was suspect early on, but then began being very helpful. I think my 55% rating is probably accentuating the later stuff, which makes me wonder if I should be paying more attention to what he said early on.

I'm almost ready to vote pwayne, firstly he's broken the ice on the voting, but mostly, TH is suddenly not that scummy.

I definatly will think about this.

Breaking the ice is not necessarily scummy (though usually scum are the ones to break the ice). His latest posts have been weird also. He prods me to find out if am reconsidering TH and then says he is "all ears" for a case on Theo.

Some thinking is definitely in order.

[pwayne66]

Why is Oman most suspicious? I don't recall you having recently made any case against him.

1) Process of elimination

2)

Oman was only on Flameaxes but his hammer vote seemed really contrived to me.

3)

He needs to squirm abit. He is taking his position most suspicious too lightly.

My turn! When oman votes for me are you going to ask him the same question or are you going to let him slide like you did with FA?

It seems that your pal has suggested that he is ready to vote for me and despite the OMGUSiness of it, coupled with his lack of a "case" against me , he practically gets a pat on the back from you.

No.

Interesting...

Most recent scumdar.
Oman. 65%
Tarhalindur. 40%*
pwayne66. 70%
Trojan Horse. 70% **
theopor_COD. 55%


scumdar in 1274 (your "case" against TH)

Oman - 70%
Tarhalindur - 30%.
Pwayne - 70%.
Trojan Horse - 65%.
Theo - 55%.


The funny thing is this: Since then you have accused Oman and I of being scum together, yet you think he is less scummy now than when you though only that "Oman was unhelpful early on with a few tells".

TH is more scummy yet you have not changed your position or case. BTW...

Numerous small scum tells aggregated, but he cleared them up rather well yesterday. Still scummy, but significantly less so.

This is a very very weak case for a guy tied as your #1 most scummy. Speaking of ties:

Most scummy:

1) Oman
T-3) Vollkan
T-3) theo
T-3) TH
T-4) Tar

Your kids glove routine with Oman is begining to wear thin.

[vollkan]

1) Process of elimination

So, rather than actually going looking for evidence or a case, you are content to vote purely because other people appear

less scummy

than Oman. That's frankly ridiculous. If Oman is your number #1, build a case, look for evidence, give him an interrogation. The reference to the hammer vote is a start, but the responsible thing to do is to look for more.

My turn! When oman votes for me are you going to ask him the same question or are you going to let him slide like you did with FA?

It seems that your pal has suggested that he is ready to vote for me and despite the OMGUSiness of it, coupled with his lack of a "case" against me , he practically gets a pat on the back from you.

All I said was that your last few posts have been weird and that I needed to think things over. You are over-reacting.

If Oman does OMGUS vote you, I will come down on him as well. He is right to question you though and to think about it.

Interesting...

Most recent scumdar.
Oman. 65%
Tarhalindur. 40%*
pwayne66. 70%
Trojan Horse. 70% **
theopor_COD. 55%


scumdar in 1274 (your "case" against TH)

Oman - 70%
Tarhalindur - 30%.
Pwayne - 70%.
Trojan Horse - 65%.
Theo - 55%.

The funny thing is this: Since then you have accused Oman and I of being scum together, yet you think he is less scummy now than when you though only that "Oman was unhelpful early on with a few tells".

TH is more scummy yet you have not changed your position or case. BTW...

On the Oman thing: It's pretty simple. My looking for scumlinks is independent of my individual suspicions. At that point, if you had come up scum, Oman would look more suspect to me. Oman, as an individual, looked less suspicious, despite the

possibility

of a scum link.

On TH: It's a variance of just 5% and it mostly just reflected how I felt about him relative to other people as a result of going over the PBPAs. Given your PBPA of him, I intend to look over TH's responses to theo again, as well as looking at theo himself.

[pwayne66]

So, rather than actually going looking for evidence or a case, you are content to vote purely because other people appear less scummy than Oman. That's frankly ridiculous. If Oman is your number #1, build a case, look for evidence, give him an interrogation. The reference to the hammer vote is a start, but the responsible thing to do is to look for more.

That is what I am doing. Not that I don't appreciate the help and all, but I have it under control. Thanks.