Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[shaft.ed]

Well this is certainly the reply I have expected and been waiting for. I had hoped some of your scumbuddies would check in prior, but I think it's fairly obvious know your lying and flying by the seat of your pants.

I've answered like all of these... but I'll run through again.

Way to start off with a lie. You haven't answered any of these questions. Why else would we have been sitting on our thumbs the last three days discussing game theory and whether or not Elias or Korlash were contributing more to the thread. Because we've been waiting for insight from our cop.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

I already pointed out two posts where you clearly stated yesterday that you did not find originality scummy. I also pointed to instances where you clearly state the Dr. BS is obv scum. This is a clear contradiction. Then you come in with this BS about if you were lying you'd claim on a dead guy. You've already had the investigation done for you by AlyG. That's clearly a more convenient route for you to take. At least you already know the guy is a killer.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

I didn't say "why didn't you out youself as cop and finger orig" I said why didn't you bring up his scumminess. If you had his buddies would have likely been defending him. Instead you chase me around as an obvSK now I'm and obvScum.

3) Where is your case against originality?

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

If you were a smart cop you would actually have a case against originality. Instead you need a tracker to point out he's a killing role and to out yourself with a guilty investigation to make your case. EVERY SINGLE POST you wrote in the first half of this day was not a case. You were simply repeating over and over that ORIG KILLED CC!! DIDN'T YOU HEAR ME. You do need to point out subtle scum tells if you want to get the town to lynch someone, unless of course you like being an outed cop. And according to your post above:

I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was.

You know, your case would likely include why orig was likely to be a lynch candidate. Didn't see you present any of this evidence when trying to convince the town.

4) If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

When did Korlash because almost certain scum?

5) Why did you claim prematurely?

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

Wow something I actually believe.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

I didn't as why you didn't vote for him all day. I asked why you didn't vote for him in your claiming post. This is an indication you were flustered while writing it.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

Actually no you haven't listed me in the scum groups a lot:

That's not the list I'd give now. I think it'd look more like:

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

Once I posited the "dybeck may be a frustrated townie" theory, you backed off on me and started listing me as town. Then vollkan was on the list alone with Oman, the convenient other suspect of the day, and Lucienne. I like how you're fabricating things again, makes my job a lot easier though.

Now for some of my own:
8) What is your scumdar? I want names, at least one sentence per person and a % ranking.

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

Again I really like that flip between myself and vollkan. He's been much higher on your late day lists than I. And nice in depth explanations there. Your contribution is noted.

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

Desperately, hahaha. I really like that one. Show me anywhere I have desperation in my posts. Also, vollkan is quite clearly the most vocal anti-orig lynch player right now. In fact he just

FoS'd

Gemelli for the suggestion of it. But that's right he's only 20% scummy.

10) Why did you claim cop despite me having made it patently clear that lynching Orig was a bad idea? By this, I mean that all you did was needlessly out yourself if you were cop. If you were in real peril of lynch, then fine, but you weren't.

Lynching orig is not a bad idea. That's something shaft.ed has made you believe. The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

We need to lynch orig.

Again I am not the only one positing numbers in this game, and vollkan was the strongest supporter of "don't lynch orig." I find it very funny that you are so blatantly contradicting your own argument. And again the maths show, that if the SK hits town it's game over for him too. Why would he want his game to end?

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Good thing we found you

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

Korlash is playing this town? Are you joking ? The guy came in to replace with little suspicion on him and almost got lynched for claiming vanilla and he's playing the town? Since then he's been bantering endlessly against Elias and vollkan over minutae that are incredibly tangential to what's going on and he's playing this town.

If you want to call people playing this town as those advocating against an orig lynch, as this seems to be your scum theory, then you would be hard pressed not to include vollkan in there. I'm really at a loss as to where Korlash comes into this. I suspect dybeck is trying rather poorly to garner some favor from vollkan. Doing so with such logical inconsistancies is bound to fail.


I'll get some numbers up in my next post.

[Gemelli]

I see that shaft.ed already posted his responses to these, but what the heck ...

Sorry that I'm no longer really reading the thread... it's frustrating when a scum gets fingered by two power roles, and yet the town still refuses to lynch.

The problems we are having are that (1) only one of the power roles is confirmed in a meaningful way, and (2) the issues with lynching orig seem to stem from the probability that he is the SK. Do you not agree with the assessment that lynching the SK is as bad as lynching a townie at this point? If not, what is your counterargument?

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

Not at all. But there are some significant problems with your cop claim, which is what you've been asked to respond to. I did think there was one valid answer you could have given to this question, but you didn't give it. Based on how strongly you hounded my predecessor D1 -- one of the two players you acknowledge to have been hounding all of D1 -- I would definitely have expected you to investigate him over originality.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

No one is asking you why you held off on claiming and sharing your results first thing. Vollkan and shaft.ed are wondering why you didn't start asking pointed questions to originality until after AlyG made his claim. Instead, you spent the first part of the day focused on painting the "shaft.ed as SK" picture.

But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

But surely you understand the need to build a case to convince the rest of us? Don't you understand that the timing of your claim -- and now that I've read the morning of D2 in more detail, of your subtle cop-tells -- is suspicious?

If you had posted anything that hinted even in a cryptic, vague manner at a cop role in your posts prior to AlyG's claim, this would be a completely different discussion. Lacking that evidence, I think there is absolutely good reason to doubt your claim.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

That wasn't the question. The question was why you didn't change your vote to him immediately after you claimed.

As a side note, the same question could be asked of AlyG, considering that his Tracker claim in post 401 did not include a vote for orig. But the general scumminess of that claim has already been commented on.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

I thought you'd decided that shaft.ed was OK in a previous post? My perception was that you'd claimed that Orig/Vollkan/Korlash as the most likely mafia candidates. Since when did your opinion of Vollkan change, and why didn't you post it before now?

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

If there's anyone "desperately trying to save" originality from a lynch, it's vollkan. Shaft.ed said that you OR originality is the play for today. And the argument that we're kicking around -- and you'll notice, we are NOT all taking this argument for granted; I have been taking plenty of heat for trying to poke at it -- is that lynching the SK has basically the same impact to town as lynching a vanilla townie.

The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

Although I'm not the most qualified person to distinguish which maths are valid and which aren't, it is telling that while shaft.ed and vollkan are looking at scenarios that extend beyond the morning of D3, you are looking at a single WCS that ends as soon as night does. And I buy the premise that if we lynch town today, the SK will probably not make a NK in order to keep his own chances alive.

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Again, do you disagree with the argument that lynching the SK puts the town in the same position as lynching a townie? If so, please explain your thinking in more detail. It isn't obvious to me at all.

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

That is the sorriest excuse for an answer I've ever seen on this site. Cite examples! Explain how their arguments are deceptive! Throw us a bone, any bone! Don't just say "it's obvious, go back and read for yourself." If it was obvious, there would be no need to ask you the question to begin with.

I've done my level best to suspend my disbelief, and considered the possibility that you are just being railroaded by scum, but you are absolutely not doing yourself any favors here.

[Lucienne]

Oh no.

I have an even more major family emergency than before. I am literally about to head to an airport to fly off now.

I won't be back until Monday, definitely.

I'll try and post when I get back, but things will remain hectic, likely. I understand if I get replaced, and I'm really sorry for being such a burden.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, sorry to not follow your suggested format, but I've been rolling this over in my head for a few days now. I'm looking at the lynch much more from the angle of what does the town get out of this?

Lynching dybeck:

If dybeck is mafia:

This is, to me, the best possible outcome of today for the town. First of all, we have taken out a mafioso, which is the top priority of the town. Second, the mafia will be reduced to 2 or possibly even 1 member depending on the setup. As such a confirmed killing role will be a serious threat to them and I believe this will force their hand to killing orig. Although we obviously aren't garuanteed this outcome, it is much more likely than if there are 3 surviving mafia. While this could hurt the town if orig comes up vig, it at least removes the SK threat. Town goes into tommorow with a likely 5:2:0 ratio, wcs 4:2:1. Likely dybeck partners in this scenario would be Gemelli (self-professed), Lucienne (quick orig vote after cop claim) and Elias for this:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

Likely town would be AlyG (confirmed tracker, maintained dybeck vote through claim), Korlash (two L-2 votes on dybeck and dybeck's claim of Korlash being scum), me (I prefer a dybeck lynch, picked apart the cop claim and am being OMGUS'd by dybeck now).

If dybeck is the SK:

This is not such a bad scenario as orig the SK would be. Here we have lynched the SK, but we know for certain that originality is scum. We open D3 with LYLO but we know the identity of one scum and have leads on the others. Scummates to orig would like be vollkan (self-professed very protective), me (self-professed also anti-orig lynch) possibly Korlash (mildly protective of orig, happy with dybeck lynch), AlyG (not freaking likely but if they're crazy and set up this gambit from the begining, will depend on AlyG's tracking results tommorow). Likely town Gemelli (dybeck supporter earlier, favored orig lynch after claim, devil's advocate for dybeck of late).

If dybeck is cop:

I won't lie this would be a very bad situation for the town. We will know that orig is SK or mafia, but we will lose if we lynch him as SK the next day. We will also lose if the SK NK's town, but so will the SK so that should be ruled out. Likely scenario if this happens is town going into D3 in 3:3:1. If orig is mafia (which we won't know) scum group should be similar as above vollkan, me, maybe Korlash. If orig is SK I'm not really sure, but keeping the SK alive and lynching town is the best possible result for mafia today I would strongly suggest lynching myself or vollkan tommorow if this is the case. I'm not really sure what the scum groups would be in this scenario but as I said I think me or vollkan should by lynched in this instance. But we won't know if orig is SK or mafia.

If dybeck is vanilla:

This would be both incredibly stupid and quite bad for the town results the same as dybeck cop, but maybe a little less suspicion on me since I've been much more suspicious of dybeck since his very bad and very opprotunistic cop claim.

End result is if dybeck comes up scum, the town has a very good chance of recovering. If he comes up SK, we're in LYLO but have outed one scum and have a lot of leads on his mates. If dybeck comes up town we're in quite a tough spot. So we should at least be sure we find him as scum. Given his lousy cop claim I am very inclined to call him scum 85-90%.

Lynching originality:

If orig comes up mafia:

This scenario is good because as we've stated again and again lynching scum is the best outcome for today. The difficulty will come in from what about dybeck? If he's the SK he's known ever since the AlyG tracker incident that originality is mafia (any light bulbs going off?). Thus he knows his cop claim will be substantiated once orig dies. But dybeck could also be our incredibly incompetent cop. We won't know come tommorow which is the case. Since the SK has not been outed I find it more likely he will kill if orig is lynched as mafia thus we have a lot of possible D3 outcomes:
3:2:1 (59.52%)
4:1:1 (35.71%)
5:1:0 (4.76%)
So we have a larger chance of being in a very precarious LyLo, with some decent scenarios stemming from the SK NK getting lucky. Orig's scummates are similar to above. I'd still say dybeck is the likely SK, depending on his results tommorow, and maybe one of the lurkers or Korlash could fit here.

If orig comes up SK:

This scenario is not optimal and we've talked about it at length. Lynching the SK, puts us in an assured LyLo tommorow. Even worse, we still don't know dybeck's alignment and he could easily be running a fake cop gambit betting on orig coming up SK. At the very least he has lynched the vig and gotten the town into LyLo on his way down. I'm not sure who the scum groups would be here either because they could either align with dybeck, or against dybeck.

If orig comes up vig:

If orig comes up vig, we know dybeck is lying and we know there is not a SK in the game. Thus the town will be in LyLo tommorow (4:3) and have an outed scum in dybeck. We'd also have links to go on. This scenario is similar to dybeck turning up SK.

In summary, I still think dybeck is the more logical choice. We get an almost definite alignment of originality following the lynch and are left with a very clear picture of the field tommorow. Lynching orig gives us no information into dybeck's alignment unless he has tricked us into lynching a pro-town power role.

I also find dybeck's claim to be more scummy. I'm almost certain now that he is lying, and if he is the cop he's doing the town a horrible disservice with his current play. He still refuses to build a case against originality that amounts to anything more than what we all heard from AlyG at the very begining of the day. And now that he's been asked for a scum list it is incredibly inconsistent with his reasons for people being scum listed in the post and also inconsistent with what his sentiments have been towards the end of this day. As it stands I am very ready to vote dybeck, but I will wait for others to weigh in their opinions.

[Gemelli]

Shaft.ed, that was a friggin' awesome post. You've taken what seems to be an even-handed approach, including scenarios in which you yourself would be suspect, and you haven't glossed over or sugarcoated the gloomy prospect of what it means if dybeck actually does come up cop.

As such, consider me swayed. Barring any earth-shattering revelations from Dybeck or our lurkers in the next few days, I am ready to add my vote for Dybeck, knowing full well that if he comes up mafia, I will myself be in the hot seat. I still don't think he should be at L-1 just now, but once we hear everyone's thoughts on the orig vs dybeck lynch options, I'm ready to pull the trigger with the rest of you.

And Lucienne, sorry to hear about your family emergency; I hope everyone is OK.

If you have a chance to post your thoughts before the deadline, even briefly, it'd definitely help. I honestly can't imagine that we'd be able to find a replacement AND bring them up to speed on the game in the next 6-7 days.

[dybeck]

I see that shaft.ed already posted his responses to these, but what the heck ...

Sorry that I'm no longer really reading the thread... it's frustrating when a scum gets fingered by two power roles, and yet the town still refuses to lynch.

The problems we are having are that (1) only one of the power roles is confirmed in a meaningful way, and (2) the issues with lynching orig seem to stem from the probability that he is the SK. Do you not agree with the assessment that lynching the SK is as bad as lynching a townie at this point? If not, what is your counterargument?

Firstly, as I've stated a lot, I don't believe orig IS a SK. I believe he's mafia. Secondly, if we lynch a townie, we can LOSE tonight, never seeing another day. this is why originality will kill tonight, regardless of what he's told us he'll do. Thirdly, lynching orig will prove my alignment so we won't have to have this conversation tomorrow.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

Not at all. But there are some significant problems with your cop claim, which is what you've been asked to respond to. I did think there was one valid answer you could have given to this question, but you didn't give it. Based on how strongly you hounded my predecessor D1 -- one of the two players you acknowledge to have been hounding all of D1 -- I would definitely have expected you to investigate him over originality.

Maybe I should have. I didn't. Sorry that I don't have an answer for you. I am, however, glad that I found a scum, and glad that I have an opportunity to prove my claim with a correct lynch today.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

No one is asking you why you held off on claiming and sharing your results first thing. Vollkan and shaft.ed are wondering why you didn't start asking pointed questions to originality until after AlyG made his claim. Instead, you spent the first part of the day focused on painting the "shaft.ed as SK" picture.

Ask originality what? He doesn't have any answers for me!

But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

But surely you understand the need to build a case to convince the rest of us? Don't you understand that the timing of your claim -- and now that I've read the morning of D2 in more detail, of your subtle cop-tells -- is suspicious?

If you had posted anything that hinted even in a cryptic, vague manner at a cop role in your posts prior to AlyG's claim, this would be a completely different discussion. Lacking that evidence, I think there is absolutely good reason to doubt your claim.

I did spend half a day trying to build a case against him. I've done the best I can. The fact is that he strangled carrotcake last night, and two UNDISPUTED pro-town power-roles caught him doing it. This must be the first time in history that it's ever taken more of a case than that!

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

That wasn't the question. The question was why you didn't change your vote to him immediately after you claimed.

As a side note, the same question could be asked of AlyG, considering that his Tracker claim in post 401 did not include a vote for orig. But the general scumminess of that claim has already been commented on.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

I thought you'd decided that shaft.ed was OK in a previous post? My perception was that you'd claimed that Orig/Vollkan/Korlash as the most likely mafia candidates. Since when did your opinion of Vollkan change, and why didn't you post it before now?

I'd never ruled Vollkan out as scum, but I never really thought of him as top candidate. When are you talking about?

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

If there's anyone "desperately trying to save" originality from a lynch, it's vollkan. Shaft.ed said that you OR originality is the play for today. And the argument that we're kicking around -- and you'll notice, we are NOT all taking this argument for granted; I have been taking plenty of heat for trying to poke at it -- is that lynching the SK has basically the same impact to town as lynching a vanilla townie.

The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

Although I'm not the most qualified person to distinguish which maths are valid and which aren't, it is telling that while shaft.ed and vollkan are looking at scenarios that extend beyond the morning of D3, you are looking at a single WCS that ends as soon as night does. And I buy the premise that if we lynch town today, the SK will probably not make a NK in order to keep his own chances alive.

Why would the SK's chances go up if there was no nightkill? Unless orig is the SK?

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Again, do you disagree with the argument that lynching the SK puts the town in the same position as lynching a townie? If so, please explain your thinking in more detail. It isn't obvious to me at all.

Answered this above.

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

That is the sorriest excuse for an answer I've ever seen on this site. Cite examples! Explain how their arguments are deceptive! Throw us a bone, any bone! Don't just say "it's obvious, go back and read for yourself." If it was obvious, there would be no need to ask you the question to begin with.

Count the posts. The players I believe to be scum are posting more than anyone else. It's just a fact. Strange that you should have a bigger issue with this answer than any of the others!

I've done my level best to suspend my disbelief, and considered the possibility that you are just being railroaded by scum, but you are absolutely not doing yourself any favors here.

Sorry I'm not the most eloquent poster. Sorry that I don't have any more facts to back up my case. I'm continually being targeted as an easy lynch. But seriously, you all believe I'm scum? And you're willing to lynch me even though you have a golden opportunity to test my alignment? If you leave me alive, and orig is scum, you know I'm telling the truth. If he turns up not scum, you have a guaranteed lynch for tomorrow.

And more than this, you're willing to leave a known killer alive, even though it could lose us the game overnight?

And seriously... if I wasn't the cop, I'd have been counterclaimed LONG before now.

[Elias_the_thief]

thoughts on dybecks latest post, though others have already posted on the subject.

I've answered like all of these... but I'll run through again.

Pretty sure thats a lie.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

As has been said, you already know that your alleged target had a killing role from AlyG. Giving a result on Orig is really the easiest claim to make for a fakeclaiming cop. This isnt a scumtell, but the fact that you indicated a guilty on Orig is not a town tell.

3) Where is your case against originality?

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

As terrible as this play is as cop, its not really a tell.

4) If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

Why, in any situation, would you hammer someone that you think is scum, when you have a guilty investigation on another player? Why go with uncertainty when you KNOW that someone is scum?

5) Why did you claim prematurely?

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

Not much to say about that.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

But you started the day attacking someone else, and when you claimed, you didnt vote him in your original post.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

Did you at any point have a rationale for this?

Now for some of my own:
8) What is your scumdar? I want names, at least one sentence per person and a % ranking.

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

Explaining this would be nice.

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

If youre not lurking, then why would you not respond to questions when youre in threat of being lynched?

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Why is lynching town that much different then lynching SK right now in terms of consequences? They both put us in LYLO, because we're not damaging the killing group that wins together. Sure, I'd rather lynch SK then town, but wouldnt you rather lynch mafia?

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

Korlash isnt really vocal about anything relevant, and Vollkan is much more vocal then Shafted, I'm pretty sure.

So yeah. Dybecks scum.

[originality]

The reason I haven't been contributing much is that the discussion here is whether me or dybeck is lying. I already know the answer to this. And we should lynch dybeck.


Ok, here's something: If dybeck comes up cop or not, you guys can be sure of my alignment (or at least if I'm mafia or not). If I am lynched, you lose a vig, but you don't know that, so: You could tell if I was scum or not, but could NOT tell if dybeck is scum or not. Someone tell me a good reason not to lynch dybeck.

[shaft.ed]

The reason I haven't been contributing much is that the discussion here is whether me or dybeck is lying. I already know the answer to this. And we should lynch dybeck.


Ok, here's something: If dybeck comes up cop or not, you guys can be sure of my alignment (or at least if I'm mafia or not). If I am lynched, you lose a vig, but you don't know that, so: You could tell if I was scum or not, but could NOT tell if dybeck is scum or not. Someone tell me a good reason not to lynch dybeck.

Originality, you really should try to read what's being posted. I've covered this and then some in a very recent post. And if you're lynched and come up vig, we will know that dybeck is scum. Even this sparse analysis is off. The scenario by which we aren't sure about dybeck is if you come up scum, because then we know there's two groups (likely maf and SK) but we won't know if dybeck is a genuine cop or other scum.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Orig, while you're here could you give me two scenarios since you run the risk of being dead tommorow one way or another:
If dybeck is lynched and turns up mafia/SK who are the likely mafia/SK and why?
If you are lynched and come up mafia/SK who are the likely mafia/SK and why?

I know I'll be hearing from Korlash later today (and likely hearing a lot), but AlyG you're the closest thing we have to a confirmed townie, thoughts would be awesome. And it seems Lucienne is likely on her way to being replaced so I guess we shouldn't expect something before deadline. (the family stuff sounds quite bad btw, hope it goes well for you)

[originality]

Dybeck is mafia, since I know there to be no SK. I'd say he is with Lucienne. Notice how he sneaked her name in his suspicion list, without ever mentioning her before, with just the right amount of suspicion against her/distancing.

But now I feel bad saying this because of the family thing. Unless its all some clever scum ploy. I kid, I kid.

I might as well post my thoughts on everyone:

dybeck: mafia.

Lucienne: 85% mafia

Korlash: I have not talked much about him other then complain about his ellipses, and all I can say is he definitely does not look like a certain townie. I'd say 60% mafia.

vollkan: Pretty sure is town. 10% mafia

shaft.ed: same as vollkan.

AlyG: 0% mafia, 100% town with no doubt in my mind.

Gemelli: He's been posting really town-like lately, but he is not quite in the same rank as shaf.ted and vollkan townwise. 35% mafia.

originality: Pretty sure he is town. See what Im doing there?

Elias: Hard to tell. Just by posting style, I'd say 50%.



To sum it up, the possible partners of dybeck to me are:
Lucienne, Korlash, Elias.

[vollkan]

I have a hard time following you here, Vollkan. Dybeck could also be the SK -- less likely than OrigSK, but still a plausible scenario -- does this concern you? In fact, ANY of us could feasibly be the SK. Saying "we don't know that [player X isn't the SK] and, thus, we can't lynch him" seems like an argument you could apply to eliminate ANYONE from lynch consideration.

dybeck's actions are inconsistent with a SK. Think about it:
Drawing attention to himself; claiming cop dubiously.
He is playing in such a way that, if he were SK, would quickly cost him the game.

Don't get me wrong, he could be the SK BUT I think it significantly less likely than him being mafia.

Couldn't you make the same argument to argue that we shouldn't lynch mafDybeck, though? I suspect that regardless of whether he's mafia or cop, if we leave him alive today he's pretty much a goner tonight.

No, actually. Dybeck is not confirmed mafia to the SK, unlike Orig. That makes things more uncertain than I am willing to gamble on.

I'm fine with assessing lynch candidates using the categories I listed in post 1335. But I think that we need to approach this decision from looking at our candidates along three dimensions: (1) most likely to be mafia, (2) least likely to be the SK, and (3) most likely to be scum overall. Looking at just one of those factors independent of the others seems to give us a limited perspective.

I see shaft.ed has already looked at this in full detail. So read my responses to him to get my perspective. If I do not respond to something of shaft.ed's, it means that I have no objections to it.

If you want to call people playing this town as those advocating against an orig lynch, as this seems to be your scum theory, then you would be hard pressed not to include vollkan in there. I'm really at a loss as to where Korlash comes into this.

I suspect dybeck is trying rather poorly to garner some favor from vollkan.

Doing so with such logical inconsistancies is bound to fail.

That was my feel as well. I present the biggest threat to him so he wants to buddy up to me.

Lynching dybeck:

[/u]

If dybeck is mafia:

This is, to me, the best possible outcome of today for the town. First of all, we have taken out a mafioso, which is the top priority of the town. Second, the mafia will be reduced to 2 or possibly even 1 member depending on the setup. As such a confirmed killing role will be a serious threat to them and I believe this will force their hand to killing orig. Although we obviously aren't garuanteed this outcome, it is much more likely than if there are 3 surviving mafia. While this could hurt the town if orig comes up vig, it at least removes the SK threat. Town goes into tommorow with a likely 5:2:0 ratio, wcs 4:2:1. Likely dybeck partners in this scenario would be Gemelli (self-professed), Lucienne (quick orig vote after cop claim) and Elias for this:
dybeck wrote:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

Likely town would be AlyG (confirmed tracker, maintained dybeck vote through claim), Korlash (two L-2 votes on dybeck and dybeck's claim of Korlash being scum), me (I prefer a dybeck lynch, picked apart the cop claim and am being OMGUS'd by dybeck now).

Your numbers are off.

Lynch mafdybeck = 5:2:1
MafNK town = 4:2:1
--If SK NKs town = 3:2:1 (wcs)
--If SK NKs mafia = 4:1:1
MafNK SKOrig = 5:2:0
--If SK NKs town = 4:2:0
--If SK NKs maf = 5:1:0 (bcs)

Numerically, shaft.ed, the wcs is 3:2:1, not 4:2:1. You were assuming that the SK would not NK. I think it is to the SK's disadvantage if he does NK, since if he hits town he dramatically increases the mafia's power. However, I am just accounting for the possibilities.

The most likely scenarios, in my view, are 4:2:1 or 5:2:0. It depends on whether or not the mafia feels threatened by the SK.


Also, is there any reason why I am not mentioned at the end of your post?

[vollkan]

I just realised that my post got cut off...

If orig comes up mafia:
This scenario is good because as we've stated again and again lynching scum is the best outcome for today. The difficulty will come in from what about dybeck? If he's the SK he's known ever since the AlyG tracker incident that originality is mafia (any light bulbs going off?). Thus he knows his cop claim will be substantiated once orig dies. But dybeck could also be our incredibly incompetent cop. We won't know come tommorow which is the case. Since the SK has not been outed I find it more likely he will kill if orig is lynched as mafia thus we have a lot of possible D3 outcomes:
3:2:1 (59.52%)
4:1:1 (35.71%)
5:1:0 (4.76%)
So we have a larger chance of being in a very precarious LyLo, with some decent scenarios stemming from the SK NK getting lucky. Orig's scummates are similar to above. I'd still say dybeck is the likely SK, depending on his results tommorow, and maybe one of the lurkers or Korlash could fit here.

The only other thing I wanted to say is that if Orig is mafia, we stand to benefit most from not lynching him.

The SK knows Orig is mafia. Thus, whilst we still run the gambit of 3:2:1 by keeping Orig alive, it at least puts the more random death in our hands, because we can be sure the SK is going to take out Orig.

What I mean is that if Orig is mafia there are going to be 3 deaths by tomorrow morning:
1) Orig
2) Mafia NK (most likely a town)
3) SK NK (will be aimed at mafia)

If we lynch Orig, the SK takes a random shot, guided only by their own scumdar.

If we do not lynch Orig, the SK shoots at Orig and we get to lynch on a collective, deliberated basis, which is more likely to hit a mafioso in my view.

[shaft.ed]

Vollkan, thanks for correcting my numbers, hard to keep track of the SK/noSK outcomes without it getting too complicated.

You weren't listed in my scum groups there because I simply forgot. I'd obviously put you on the originality side. There's a small chance you could be bus'ing dybeck but I'd strongly doubt it. Also given some of your interactions with Oman there's a chance you could be aligned with Korlash should either of you come up scum.

Also I think I forgot to mention that if orig comes up mafia Lucienne is very likely non-mafia given his willingness to vote her.

Finally, thanks for adding in the points about cross-kills. I neglected to add them into the scenarios and that would vastly change various outcomes should there be a non-dybeck non-orig SK, again in favor of a dybeck lynch.

[Gemelli]

dybeck's actions are inconsistent with a SK. Think about it:
Drawing attention to himself; claiming cop dubiously.
He is playing in such a way that, if he were SK, would quickly cost him the game.

Don't get me wrong, he could be the SK BUT I think it significantly less likely than him being mafia.

I see where you're going with that, but again: one could say the same thing about orig, if to a lesser extent. I just want to be clear that we don't have any guarantees here.

That being said, I have been convinced me that dybeck is a smarter lynch choice for today. If he does turn up cop, as shaft.ed has pointed out, we will be in a tough situation D3. But I also believe that getting his alignment confirmed one way or the other is critical information that we really need in order to set a strategy for the next day.

So at this point I'm just anxious to hear what AlyG has to say, and ideally Lucienne as well.

[vollkan]

I see where you're going with that, but again: one could say the same thing about orig, if to a lesser extent. I just want to be clear that we don't have any guarantees here.

Well, look back over the deliberation we had over whether or not Orig's actions made sense for a SK.

He was caught red-handed by AlyG. He would have no idea what roles existed except that a vig probably was not in the game. RB or something like that would probably be safer, but it is not inconceivable that a SK might panic and claim vig, particularly given that it was unlikely to be counter-claimed.

This is an issue which is very much open to speculation. Unlike numbers-based decisions, the likelihood of Orig being SK vs. vig is purely on judgment.

By and large though, dybeck's actions are less consistent with a SK than Orig.

The sensible move for an SK in dybeck's position would be to try and get a non-Orig mafia lynch, which has a higher likelihood of hitting mafia than his own blind NK, and to then NK Orig at night.

In claiming cop, all a SK dybeck would do is make himself a direct threat to the mafia and make his own NK more likely. Additionally, given the obvious flaws in his claim, it doesn't seem like the sort of thing that a purely self-interested SK would do.

That being said, I have been convinced me that dybeck is a smarter lynch choice for today. If he does turn up cop, as shaft.ed has pointed out, we will be in a tough situation D3. But I also believe that getting his alignment confirmed one way or the other is critical information that we really need in order to set a strategy for the next day.

If dybeck comes up cop, all we learn is that Orig is either mafia or SK.

Mislynch = 4:3:1
MafNK town = 3:3:1 LsaL (Lynch SK and lose)
--SK NK town = 2:3:1 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 3:2:1 Messy
MafNK SK = 4:3:0 LYLO
--SK NK town = 3:3:0 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 4:2:0 LYLO

Now, what we see here is that the SK's best move is to not NK if we mislynch (eg. if dybeck is cop). Killing a townie will ALWAYS cause a mafia win. Killing a mafioso will not improve things.

Thus, the most likely opening situation is 3:3:1. If Orig is the SK, then I hazard to say 4:3:0 is actually more likely.

Reason:
The mafia may decide that a clean 4:3:0 LYLO is better for them than a 3:3:1 situation, where the SK presents a threat.

Both 3:3:1 and 4:3:0 are LYLO, but the latter has less prospect of the SK wreaking havoc in a x:1:1 situation or similar.

[dybeck]

If I'm not the cop, will the real cop please come out and counterclaim so that we can all see my fake claim for what it is?

[vollkan]

Dybeck, if the real cop counter-claimed, wouldn't they just get NKed?

[Gemelli]

If dybeck comes up cop, all we learn is that Orig is either mafia or SK.

That's all we will be CERTAIN of, agreed. But we will have a lot more information to go on as far as potential scum targets, as shaft.ed posted above:

If dybeck is cop:
I won't lie this would be a very bad situation for the town. We will know that orig is SK or mafia, but we will lose if we lynch him as SK the next day. We will also lose if the SK NK's town, but so will the SK so that should be ruled out. Likely scenario if this happens is town going into D3 in 3:3:1. If orig is mafia (which we won't know) scum group should be similar as above vollkan, me, maybe Korlash. If orig is SK I'm not really sure, but keeping the SK alive and lynching town is the best possible result for mafia today I would strongly suggest lynching myself or vollkan tommorow if this is the case. I'm not really sure what the scum groups would be in this scenario but as I said I think me or vollkan should by lynched in this instance. But we won't know if orig is SK or mafia.

It's the same type of situation we get regardless of who our lynch target is, and what their alignment turns out to be. We will have a small set of information proved/confirmed, and a larger set of hypotheses will be supported/countered. I thought shaft.ed did an excellent job of highlighting the potential lines of investigation for the town based on our possible lynch outcomes. And I think that we will have a lot more to go on from confirming dybeck's alignment than if we confirm orig's.

One question on your numbers: can you explain why 4:2:0 is LYLO? I understand that it's a bad situation -- a mislynch is mafia win -- but the difference between 4:2:0 and 4:3:0 is that in the former situation, a no-lynch extends the game for the town (though resulting in certain LYLO the next day).

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

[vollkan]

One question on your numbers: can you explain why 4:2:0 is LYLO? I understand that it's a bad situation -- a mislynch is mafia win -- but the difference between 4:2:0 and 4:3:0 is that in the former situation, a no-lynch extends the game for the town (though resulting in certain LYLO the next day).

Apologies for that...I tend to never consider No Lynches as a viable possibility. I know they

can

be useful, in certain circumstances, but I plan and reason on the assumption that we will be lynching.

So, yes, 4:2 is not LYLO technically, but it is LYLO where I assume lynching as the default scenario.

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

No.

Cops are very VERY common (I haven't been in a closed setup Mini to date which hasn't had one), but there is no guarantee.

I think, however, that the existence of a tracker, another investigative role, probably makes cop

less likely

,

I am, however, very nervous about things given the prevalence of cops.

That said, dybeck is our best lead as a mafioso candidate and his behaviour pretty much speaks for itself.

[shaft.ed]

If dybeck comes up cop, all we learn is that Orig is either mafia or SK.

Mislynch = 4:3:1
MafNK town = 3:3:1 LsaL (Lynch SK and lose)
--SK NK town = 2:3:1 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 3:2:1 Messy
MafNK SK = 4:3:0 LYLO
--SK NK town = 3:3:0 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 4:2:0 LYLO

Actually I was thinking about this and we will still have a good shot of knowing originality's alignment even if dybeck comes up cop. As we've said repeatedly, the SK very much needs to NK mafia. If dybeck is cop and orig is mafia then we are garuanteed a SK in the game that almost definitely attempt to NK orig. Only ways that this doesn't happen is if orig is a NK immune godfather or if the mafia have some type of Doc or roleblocker that has found the SK in the game. While these scenarios are plausible, I don't find them likely. So if orig does survive the night after the dybeck cop claim, I'd find it quite likely he is the SK.

So if orig is mafia and dybeck is in fact the cop we're likely to be in 3:2:1 or 4:2:0. If orig is the SK in this situation hopefully he would have noticed the thousands of times we pointed out a miskill ends the game for the SK and we'll end up in 3:3:1 or 4:3:0.

Gemelli, in regards to the 4:2 being LyLo, I'm with vollkan I generally disregard No Lynch's. But you are right 4:2 is a better situation than 4:3, because not only is a No Lynch possible, but if you get a lucky vig target or Doc protection the game can survive a mislynch.

If I'm not the cop, will the real cop please come out and counterclaim

so that we can all see my fake claim for what it is

?

Nice last try at rolefishing. And interesting wording there.

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

With a tracker and a possible vig, there's a chance we don't have a cop in the game. But as vollkan said, they are incredibly common in mini's.

[vollkan]

Actually I was thinking about this and we will still have a good shot of knowing originality's alignment even if dybeck comes up cop. As we've said repeatedly, the SK very much needs to NK mafia. If dybeck is cop and orig is mafia then we are garuanteed a SK in the game that almost definitely attempt to NK orig. Only ways that this doesn't happen is if orig is a NK immune godfather or if the mafia have some type of Doc or roleblocker that has found the SK in the game. While these scenarios are plausible, I don't find them likely. So if orig does survive the night after the dybeck cop claim, I'd find it quite likely he is the SK.

Assuming Orig is mafia for the purposes of reasoning,

That got me thinking: The SK really hurts themself if they choose not to NK Orig because, by keeping Orig alive, that suggests that he is the SK, which is a disincentive to lynch him whilst there is the prospect of entering LYLO with the mafia.

I can see at least 2 advantages (there are probably several more) to the SK in getting rid of Orig tonight:
1) The SK is less informed today than they will be on N3. Thus, the SK's best bet is to target Orig tonight. On N3, their scumdar will more likely be more accurate and, thus, they will have more likelihood of hitting a mafioso. If they take a judgment (non-Orig) shot tonight, they have a higher probability of hitting a townie, which means the SK squanders the opportunity to likely be able to NK two mafia.
2) As a flow-on from the above, keeping mafOrig alive means that it is more likely that there are more mafia to plot on N2. Making it more likely the SK will die.

The SK needs to whittle down the mafia before they have a hope of getting to majority and, thus, the SK needs to NK mafOrig at the soonest possible opportunity (ie. tonight).

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I feel you've been playing quite pro-town as of late but when reading these two quotes next to eachother it really looks to me like you're trying to help dybeck play find the cop:

If I'm not the cop, will the real cop please come out and counterclaim so that we can all see my fake claim for what it is?

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

While it's quite unlikely that a possible unclaimed cop would step forward due to either of these posts, it seems mafia may attempt to glean some information as to the cop-iness of a player due to their reaction (or lack there of) to the above posts. I'd suggest that further discussion of cops should cease in case we have an unclaimed cop. Some of our townies are a bit loose with their posting.

[Gemelli]

Gemelli, I feel you've been playing quite pro-town as of late but when reading these two quotes next to eachother it really looks to me like you're trying to help dybeck play find the cop

I never would have expected that interpretation, though your explanation of how you came to it makes a bit of sense. I read dybeck's post as basically saying "I have claimed cop, no one is counterclaiming me, therefore I am actually the cop," and I was trying to demonstrate that a lack of a counterclaim didn't actually substantiate his own claim.

I absolutely don't want any of our power roles to claim/hint/breadcrumb/whatever, and I hope you didn't think I was implying otherwise.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I understand that's the way I read it the first time too, just felt a little differently when taken in the context of dybeck's post.

I'm going to be LA over the weekends as usual. While I'd like to see AlyG and Korlash post something before the deadline, it's more important to me that dybeck be lynched for the reasons that I have outlined at length in the last couple pages. To make sure the pressure stays on him over the weekend I'm going to add my vote.

vote: dybeck

As I hinted at above, I won't object to someone hammering, but I'd like it if AlyG or Korlash could weigh in first.