Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I don't mean to be beating a dead horse here, but these two posts are fundamentally different, and being of a similar playstyle to vollkan hopefully I can explain why I think you got called out (yes I know another addition of shaft.ed and vollkan speak for eachoter).

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point. , for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Here you do clearly point out that ONE of the two is the correct lynch for today, but you haven't explained why that is. Also you lead in the first logical premise with what should actually follow. If you had strctured this a little differently I don't think it would have had the same reaction. So start with "I think that ONE of them is the right play today" and also explain why (you didn't do this). Then add in all of your reasons why one is a better choice than the other. The way you've set it up you hardly even notice that you are saying dybeck and orig are most likely scum even with the ONE bolded, and again you didn't explain why you just said you

think

it's the right play.

We know that dybeck and originality's claims are mutually exclusive, thus at least one of them has to be scum, and there is a possibility that they both are. Thus lynching one of them has greater than 50% odds of hitting scum. Anyone else in the town is much lower than this and thus should not be considered.

This post has no assumptions. It states clearly that dybeck and orig have a higher probability of being scum than anyone else in the town. Then down below I start building a case for my choice between the two.

I'm not trying to implicitly say one of these is clearly better than the other, but vollkan and my brains appear to be wired very similarly. Since this seems to be very much bugging you I hope this gives you a little understanding as to how things went down.

That said I do think vollkan over-reacted and your being upset was justified especially since vollkan bolded the part of the quote that was the least subjective in order to present his argument.

[shaft.ed]

You have every right to be mad at this. I should have done this at the time but FoS vollkan and originality for the Lucienne side track

Do you mean my vote for Lucienne here?

If so, you have obviously missed the fact that it achieved all that I really wanted it to. I've hinted at this before, but a primary motivator for me was seeing what Orig's response would be.

If you're going to run these gambits you have to be prepared for how scummy they will make you look.

[shaft.ed]

I am not ignoring your numbers. As I've said, the numbers look reasonable to me. But as a newer player, I do not want to assume that your numbers represent an ironclad pro-town strategy. I have been asking questions and thinking of possible scenarios in which those numbers could be pro-scum simply because I DO NOT HAVE THE EXPERIENCE TO FULLY EVALUATE THE NUMBERS ON THEIR OWN MERIT.

I know many players seem to be allergic to numbers, but would you like a simple numerical explanation of the situation? Maybe we can do this with three simple lines.

[shaft.ed]

Please whatever you do, do not stop posting. That's absolutely the most important thing.

I endorse this product.

Also Gemelli, if it makes you feel better, should originality come up scum you've given me a bunch of new reasons to suspect vollkan. You're posting has not been wasted, I've just been avoiding the back and forth because I'm not a big fan of jumping into such issues.

[Gemelli]

On that note, given our exchange, does the HoS stand?)

I am willing to drop it to a mFoS at this point

Additionally, it need not be conscious distortion. Cherry-picking quotes which meet a picture you are trying to pain also results in the same thing. In that case, the distortion is indirect.

Ah. IMHO the words "distortion" and "misrepresentation" imply intent. But that's subjective on my part.

I speculate on every possible option. At some points, I may get into my speculation and begin to reason within that speculation, making it look like an arbitrary change, but it is how I reason through things: By looking at every scenario and flowing with it. Similarly to me going devil's advocate on myself regarding Orig for a bit. I just wanted to see what the case was like.

That's a good way to play. It's really what I was trying to accomplish in your PBPA. To be honest, when I started considering the prospect of you being mafia, I got seriously paranoid because a meta read suggests that you are VERY difficult to read in that situation. I think that paranoia is reflected in the PBPA ... I have captured a worst-case scenario, but not really captured the positive contributions you have made to the game. That was unfair of me, and I apologize for it. Especially since I've accused you of doing the same thing.

(1) I think that you may have a tendency to make early judgements on players, and to allow your perceptions of those players to influence your interpretation of their content, and

That's not how I see shaft.ed's argument, remember.

I was more referring to your views on me. My perception was that you decided early that I was probably (55%+) scummy, and have been reading my posts from that perspective: focusing on suspicion and minimizing the merits.

If this is the case, I know precisely how you feel. I was not twisting what you said, and I find it rather odd that you would use that word choice. You attacked me with flawed points, misrepresenting me in effect, if not in intention. I cannot judge your subjective intention, so I can only go by the objective intention which is expressed in your words. That intention was one of contortion.

TBH, I think you did a bit of what you're accusing me of in your response: cherry-picked a few examples that counter-argued my suspicions. That's why I used the word "twisted." I think that the gist of the trends I observed -- being strongly focused on Dybeck through D2, being in near-lockstep with shaft.ed, resisting an originality lynch through D2 -- were worth pointing out. My methodology in drawing those conclusions, and my implementation in citing support for them, was sloppy.

Okay, so the main issue here is that you are not confident enough to judge whether or not the numbers are the result of scumvollkan trying to fool you.

That's exactly it. As I posted in (I think) my first major content here, I think you are either a valuable town asset OR a very dangerous scum. I mostly wanted to vent my paranoia and see how other players reacted.

As far as how to prove your arguments are valid to me, I don't think YOU can yourself ... but a consensus of players can. Does that make sense?

That's also why I've been so interested in hearing other people's perspectives on our lynching strategy for today. Here's what we've got so far:

Gemelli: Lynch either originality or dybeck
shaft.ed: Lynch either originality or dybeck, most likely dybeck
Vollkan: Lynch our best non-SK mafia candidate (dybeck)
Korlash: Leaning towards Dybeck or Elias
Elias: Leaning towards Dybeck or Korlash
Lucienne: ???
AlyG: ??? (most recent vote was Dybeck in 1102)
Originality: Lynch Lucienne (as of 1235)
Dybeck: Lynch originality

I have been pulled towards lynching dybeck as being the preferable choice between him and orig, since there seems to be general support for (or at least a lack of resistance to) the "lynching the SK would be bad for town" platform. But I want to reiterate this:

my level of confidence that orig is anti-town exceeds my level of confidence that he is the SK

. That being said, I am anxious to get input from everyone on what their preferred strategy for today is.

[Gemelli]

Shaft.ed: I think I understand the lynching-SK-is-bad argument, but thank you for offering to summarize it. What I wasn't sure about was whether it accounted for all of the variables in the game. The only way for me to gain confidence is for other players to post their input, like you've done.

I also understand that your post was much better stated. I didn't explain my reasoning well at all, and you did. So I can understand why he would have reacted differently, and I'm slowly getting over my pissiness

You're posting has not been wasted

Thank you. I absolutely needed to hear that the 3-hour PBPA exercise wasn't a complete waste of effort.

[Elias_the_thief]

When I promised my opinion on the Gem-Vollkan debate yesterday, I didnt realize that today is halloween. That post will have to wait for tomorrow.

[vollkan]

Here you do clearly point out that ONE of the two is the correct lynch for today, but you haven't explained why that is. Also you lead in the first logical premise with what should actually follow. If you had strctured this a little differently I don't think it would have had the same reaction. So start with "I think that ONE of them is the right play today" and also explain why (you didn't do this). Then add in all of your reasons why one is a better choice than the other. The way you've set it up you hardly even notice that you are saying dybeck and orig are most likely scum even with the ONE bolded, and again you didn't explain why you just said you think it's the right play.

Yes, that's basically what I meant when I was saying

I thought he [shaft.ed] was simply stating that Orig and dybeck are more likely to be scum, without actually advocating for the lynch of both of them. The last sentence looked to me simply like he was saying that we should not consider anybody else to be of the same likelihood. This was why I responded with the numbers rather than an attack.

and

If you are reading shaft.ed that way, then absolutely I understand your response to my attacking you. If shaft.ed is taking the "we must lynch one of them approach" then I will jump up and down at him as well.

Gemelli, you assumed that one of them was the right play and then chose Orig.

That said I do think vollkan over-reacted and your being upset was justified especially since vollkan bolded the part of the quote that was the least subjective in order to present his argument.

The part I bolded was the part I have the most issue with though. I bolded where he said he thinks one of them for sure, and chooses Orig. That was my problem; adopting a developed stance without actually explaining

why

If you're going to run these gambits you have to be prepared for how scummy they will make you look.

Absolutely. I know they are all unorthodox and some border on being "scummy" (I assume you mean that building a case for ulterior purposes is something scum do, rather than that my actions are anti-town)

However, it doesn't matter if the cat is white or black, so long as it catches mice. I see the information I gain through them as being highly valuable (the Lucienne thing got me exactly what I wanted to know).

I was more referring to your views on me. My perception was that you decided early that I was probably (55%+) scummy, and have been reading my posts from that perspective: focusing on suspicion and minimizing the merits.

Gemelli, 50% is my default position. I gave you a mere 5% extra.

As far as how to prove your arguments are valid to me, I don't think YOU can yourself ... but a consensus of players can. Does that make sense?

Yes.

I have been pulled towards lynching dybeck as being the preferable choice between him and orig, since there seems to be general support for (or at least a lack of resistance to) the "lynching the SK would be bad for town" platform. But I want to reiterate this: my level of confidence that orig is anti-town exceeds my level of confidence that he is the SK. That being said, I am anxious to get input from everyone on what their preferred strategy for today is.

I don't think you are in any doubt as to mine: Lynch mafia. Dybeck is the most likely mafia. Therefore, lynch dybeck.

I'm slowly getting over my pissiness

Glad to hear it

[Korlash]

Damn... I have to study to become a manager tonight... Sigh... lesson one... store Operations... *falls asleep*...

Ok I think I will take a break and go over a few things here.. Post back in a second...

[Korlash]

Ok... A lot of the things I was going to comment on are just a waste of time and would only make me look worse for slowing the game up...

Big thing I saw:

Korlash: Leaning towards Dybeck or Elias

I believe I am leaning towards Dybeck or Orig. Which I know to be kinda contradictory, but I know one of them is lying and so if I should choose to believe Dybeck's claim I would vote with him, thus Orig. I have no intention of voting/lynching/leaning Elias at all... I thought I made hat clear when I posted my two different scumdars.. Guess not..

Um... what else...

Gemelli, 50% is my default position. I gave you a mere 5% extra.

So if you say someone is 5% town you mean they are very likely town?... interesting...

However, it doesn't matter if the cat is white or black, so long as it catches mice.

Nice metaphor... especially on today... Still I would rather you have a white cat then a black cat... If at all possible... If the cat is too black he might get lost outside at night!... Wow... it's amazing how much that saying might actually work in a game of mafia... weird... XD go me!

Uhhhggg... Guess it's time to go back to studying... No need to refute most of the Vollkan arguments Gem made seeing as how you two have pretty much come to a decision on most of them. I will try to reread and see if any of my original points still stand out and then ask about them.

Oh and I believe it is time to

Vote: Dybeck

... Stop, not, being, helpful! Or else you end up like me ><

[Gemelli]

I don't think you are in any doubt as to mine: Lynch mafia. Dybeck is the most likely mafia. Therefore, lynch dybeck.

Yup, got it.

FWIW, the reason I'm sticking with the "lynch originality or dybeck" theme in the face of opposition is that, as shaft.ed posted, their conflicting claims practically guarantee that at least one of them is scum, and quite possibly both are.

I have been assuming that our hierarchy of outcomes for today's lynch, listed in order from most desirable to least desirable, is:

(1) Lynch mafia - yay for town!
(2) Lynch SK - results in LYLO, -1 power role D3
(3) Mislynch vanilla townie - results in LYLO, -1 or -2 power roles D3
(4) Mislynch power role - results in LYLO, -1 to -3 power roles D3

Right now, the main reason I am keeping orig in mind as a possible target is that I rate the probability of him falling into each of those categories as:

(1) 30%
(2) 60%
(3) 0%
(4) 10%

In other words, I am 90% convinced that he is either in the "most desireable lynch" category, or the 2nd most desireable lynch category.

For dybeck, I'd currently put the category probabilities as such:

(1) 55%
(2) 10%
(3) 0%
(4) 35%

In other words, I am 65% confident that he falls into one of the first two categories.

There currently aren't any other players who crack my 60% mark for falling into the first two categories.

So in a nutshell, what I've been struggling with is whether it's better to focus on the person who I think is 90% anti-town, or the person who I think is 55% mafia.

Now, if my priorities aren't right with those categories -- i.e., if lynching a serial killer IS in fact as bad as (or worse than) lynching a townie at this point, which I think is the point I'm still struggling with -- then it's clearly a different ball game. And I know that others would have different % ratings for orig and dybeck in each of those four categories. If you guys can convince me to weight the category priorities differently, or convince me that dybeck is more than 55% likely mafia, I'll come quietly.

And all that being said, I am absolutely coming around to agree that dybeck may in fact be the best lynch choice, pending his answers to the outstanding questions he has been told to answer.

Dybeck:

You've been given a specific list of questions to be answered TWICE now, once by shaft.ed and again by Vollkan. How did you miss the list of questions the first time? Are you just skimming this thread? Why aren't you replying to people's questions as they come up, rather than just asking everyone to sum up for you?

Given the impending deadline, and the town's precarious position, I would expect you to be more invested in the game at this point. I agree with shaft.ed: this does not seem to be cop-like behavior.

[vollkan]

Ok... A lot of the things I was going to comment on are just a waste of time and would only make me look worse for slowing the game up...

Self-preservation prevails again, Korlash. You don't want to post because it might have negative ramifications for yourself.

I believe I am leaning towards Dybeck or Orig. Which I know to be kinda contradictory, but I know one of them is lying and so if I should choose to believe Dybeck's claim

I would vote with him, thus Orig.

I have no intention of voting/lynching/leaning Elias at all... I thought I made hat clear when I posted my two different scumdars.. Guess not..

@ Gemelli: What were we just talking about? Look at what Korlash has posted.

Korlash is doing precisely what you did, only in a more fence-sitting fashion. He is assuming that BECAUSE one of dybeck and Orig is scum THEREFORE one of them must swing. He is failing to explain why it is pro-town for one of them to swing, by failing to engage with the numbers.

@ Korlash: Even if you DID believe dybeck's claim, why would you want to lynch Orig? You are ignoring the numbers of the situation and not explaining the reasoning behind your position. For that,

FoS: Korlash

So if you say someone is 5% town you mean they are very likely town?... interesting...

Every person begins at 50%. Town tells make that lower, scum tells make that higher.

A ranking of 5% would equate to near certainty that person was town.

Typically, my scumdars read people as being over 50% than below, because I am usually paranoid and see very few things as town tells (due to wifom and the fact that I know that scum can read pro-town).

Oh and I believe it is time to Vote: Dybeck

You have given no rationale for this vote. Moreover, why on earth is this "time" ripe for voting dybeck?

Moreover, just before you said:

1) Dybeck- Claim has many faults and snags in it. Was keen on jumping on me in a somewhat... scummy way... Most of his posts seem to lack content and he does seem to avoid a lot fo the more direct statements at him.

I already said i will give him one defense post before voting but if he waits too much longer I may vote anyways.

dybeck has NOT given a "defence post" yet and it has not even been a full day since you made this "I will give him..." post.

Explain.

[Gemelli]

I believe I am leaning towards Dybeck or Orig. Which I know to be kinda contradictory, but I know one of them is lying and so if I should choose to believe Dybeck's claim I would vote with him, thus Orig. I have no intention of voting/lynching/leaning Elias at all... I thought I made hat clear when I posted my two different scumdars.. Guess not..

My fault; I was going off of post 1279 when I wrote that. So the updated chart is:

Gemelli: Lynch either originality or dybeck
shaft.ed: Lynch either originality or dybeck, most likely dybeck
Vollkan: Lynch best mafia candidate (dybeck)
Korlash: Leaning towards Dybeck or Originality
Elias: Leaning towards Dybeck or Korlash
Lucienne: ???
AlyG: ??? (most recent vote was Dybeck in 1102)
Originality: Lynch Lucienne (as of 1235)
Dybeck: Lynch originality

And, um, what's the vote count on Dybeck at this point? Is he back at L-1 again? If so, can I ask someone to unvote until we've had the chance to hear from our lurkers?

[vollkan]

He's at 3 votes by my count:

AlyG, vollkan, Korlash

If he gets to -1, I will unvote.

[originality]

I'd like to know if anyone is firmly against a dybeck lynch at this point.

[vollkan]

I'd like to know why, for a supposed vig, you are about the least active contributor in this game.

[Korlash]

Self-preservation prevails again, Korlash. You don't want to post because it might have negative ramifications for yourself.

No, I do not want to post because it would spiral us into another one of our "pointless" discussions and I could be accused of hindering scum hunting again... Wait... that is what you said.. nevermind...

@ Korlash: Even if you DID believe dybeck's claim, why would you want to lynch Orig? You are ignoring the numbers of the situation and not explaining the reasoning behind your position. For that, FoS: Korlash

I have on more then one occasion explained my views on Orig... You just seem so convinced you are right that you choose to shoot down any points we make against him. I don't have to give my god damn opinions on why I want the fucking SK dead moron... I agree he is not the best lynch, but if he did get an honest to god scum investigation I am more inclined to believe he is mafia and thus more inclined to agree he is an acceptable lynch. As of right now I have no intention of lynching him and no intention of spiraling us back into the fucking 800 pages of useless god damn same exact post after the other... God man are you that full of yourself that you are the best god damn mafia player in the world that you have to be right even if proven that your trying to protect a known mafia? God damnit man... This gets me so pissed off that... gaw.. ahhhh... I wana go out and punch little kids tricker treating now..

WOW THAT FELT AWESOME! I now see why people do it... god.. wow... I feel great... Probably going to get lynched.. but man... still feel great...

A ranking of 5% would equate to near certainty that person was town.

It just seems odd to me... But to each his own. I can work with that...

You have given no rationale for this vote. Moreover, why on earth is this "time" ripe for voting dybeck?

...

dybeck has NOT given a "defence post" yet and it has not even been a full day since you made this "I will give him..." post.

Explain.

I don't need to fucking explain this to you. (Ehh.. not as good anymore...)

Seriously though, I have told him on more then one occasion that if he does not quit not helping, does not contribute, and that after one post if I am not satisfied I will vote him. He could have easily said "SOMETHING" in his last post.. but instead he took the easy way out and killed another two days of the deadline time. He deserves my vote. Crap cop claim that he won't even try to back up, combined with the fact he just plain wanted to lynch me for no reason, I have more then enough reason to put my vote on him and if you cannot see that then why don't you fucking unvote before trying to weaken my vote on him. (Ok I lied.. it still feels good ^^)

And yeah.. While I have no reason to unvote, I also see no reason to lynch without a truly, very detailed, very substantial, post from him. However, if he chooses to keep ignoring us, he will see his actions backfire come deadline.

Also, because I can clearly see this post as my "damning" piece of evidence, I want to say this now. Most of your "numbers" are based on him being the SK. And the numbers you have for him being mafia all point to his likeliness of being NKEd.. I don't know about you But I am not the kind of person to cross my fingers and hope a mafia is killed instead of just... KILLING HIM NOW! We kill a mafia, end of story, great lynch, good day, point for us! If Dybeck is telling the truth I think a 100% mafia lynch is better then listening to your numbers and losing come tomorrow... As it stands I feel Dybeck is lying... So it all really doesn't matter...

*Worthless Disclaimer: Please excuse all the above foul language and personal attacks. Korlash is under a lot of pressure at work and has been undergoing a lot of stress. While it does make him feel good to lash out it will probably only lead to him becoming an alcoholic. And I do not have the money to spend on beer! In short.. can I borrow $5?

[vollkan]

No, I do not want to post because it would spiral us into another one of our "pointless" discussions and I could be accused of hindering scum hunting again... Wait... that is what you said.. nevermind...

Korlash, refusal to comment out of fear of attack is scummy. If you don't want to debate that's fine, but don't expect me to just accept that reason for not saying something.

I have on more then one occasion explained my views on Orig... You just seem so convinced you are right that you choose to shoot down any points we make against him. I don't have to give my god damn opinions on why I want the fucking SK dead moron... I agree he is not the best lynch, but if he did get an honest to god scum investigation I am more inclined to believe he is mafia and thus more inclined to agree he is an acceptable lynch. As of right now I have no intention of lynching him and no intention of spiraling us back into the fucking 800 pages of useless god damn same exact post after the other... God man are you that full of yourself that you are the best god damn mafia player in the world that you have to be right even if proven that your trying to protect a known mafia? God damnit man... This gets me so pissed off that... gaw.. ahhhh... I wana go out and punch little kids tricker treating now..

WOW THAT FELT AWESOME! I now see why people do it... god.. wow... I feel great... Probably going to get lynched.. but man... still feel great...

So, your position is:
You don't want to lynch Orig because dybeck could be lying, but it dybeck were proven to be telling the truth, then you would see Orig's lynch as acceptable.

I'll try and explain the numbers in the most simple form I can, by taking the wcs and the most likely cs, assuming Orig is SK and we have 3 mafia, making it currently 5:3:1 (since that is the wcs)

Mislynch

wcs = 2:3:1 LOSS (mafia win)
Most likely = 3:3:1 lynch-mafia-or-lose

Mafia Lynch

wcs = 3:2:1
Most likely = 3:2:1 (Lynch-SK-and-lose) or 4:1:1*

* Let me explain. If we lynch mafia, Orig will most likely NK. If Orig NKs, he will, obviously, hit town or scum. Now, judging by his reaction to my Lucienne vote (this is

important

) Orig appears to be trusting

my

scumdar above anybody else's. That is, obviously, not a helpful thing because I could well be wrong. That's one reason why we all need to be explicitly clear about who we think is scum. SKOrig will, I believe, follow those he feels to be most pro-town (since his goal is to catch mafia) above the others. That corresponds with his thing way back about favouring the consensus of some over others.

SK Lynch

WCS = 4:3 LYLO

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now, what we see here is that our best scenario comes from lynching mafia. Our worst scenario (loss) comes, obviously, from a mislynch. However, if Orig is SK, he hurts himself by NKing if we mislynch today (because it has no advantages but could well hand the mafia the game).

I hope this makes things a little clearer.

Seriously though, I have told him on more then one occasion that if he does not quit not helping, does not contribute, and that after one post if I am not satisfied I will vote him. He could have easily said "SOMETHING" in his last post.. but instead he took the easy way out and killed another two days of the deadline time. He deserves my vote. Crap cop claim that he won't even try to back up, combined with the fact he just plain wanted to lynch me for no reason, I have more then enough reason to put my vote on him and if you cannot see that then why don't you fucking unvote before trying to weaken my vote on him. (Ok I lied.. it still feels good ^^)

If those are the reasons you voted, that's fine.

*Worthless Disclaimer: Please excuse all the above foul language and personal attacks. Korlash is under a lot of pressure at work and has been undergoing a lot of stress. While it does make him feel good to lash out it will probably only lead to him becoming an alcoholic. And I do not have the money to spend on beer! In short.. can I borrow $5?

I make a point of not being offended by foul language. I expect people to tolerate rudeness from me if ever I get pissed, and I extend them the same courtesy in kind. If nobody got offended, nothing would be considered rude and the world would be so much happier.

[vollkan]

I wanted to cover this on its own:

Also, because I can clearly see this post as my "damning" piece of evidence, I want to say this now. Most of your "numbers" are based on him being the SK. And the numbers you have for him being mafia all point to his likeliness of being NKEd.. I don't know about you But I am not the kind of person to cross my fingers and hope a mafia is killed instead of just... KILLING HIM NOW! We kill a mafia, end of story, great lynch, good day, point for us! If Dybeck is telling the truth I think a 100% mafia lynch is better then listening to your numbers and losing come tomorrow... As it stands I feel Dybeck is lying... So it all really doesn't matter...

No. Absolutely not. And if you had paid attention to the numbers you would understand why.

Let's assume Orig is mafia.

Lynch of Orig = 5:2:1

Lovely. Now, here we have an unknown SK who would be crazy not to NK. Thus, the SK shoots. The most likely outcome is us opening at 3:2:1.

In contrast, if we do not lynch mafOrig today, for the sake of argument let's use a mislynch 4:3:1. Mafia NK makes it 3:3:1. The SK would be

crazy

not to take out Orig, making it....3:2:1.

EXACTLY THE SAME AS BEFORE!

Thus, we stand to make no advantage from lynching mafOrig since the likely outcome is only as good as the likely outcome of a

mislynch

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #35!

dybeck (3) - AlyG, vollkan, Korlash
Lucienne (1) - originality
originality (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, shaft.ed, Elias_the_Thief, Gemelli

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 8

[Korlash]

I make a point of not being offended by foul language. I expect people to tolerate rudeness from me if ever I get pissed, and I extend them the same courtesy in kind. If nobody got offended, nothing would be considered rude and the world would be so much happier.

You can be so wise sometimes... ;_; *Claps*

But more on the thing... I just did a pretty decent post I think but my laptop died so I will try to recreate it...

Your basis of why lynching Orig is bad seems to hang on the Sk Nking him. Again, stop assuming you know every move a person will make. I clearly remember you saying at one point and time that if Orig NKs we lynch him tomorrow... So logically, the real Sk would set him up by NKing someone else (Maybe me >< Ahhhh!!!!) In my mind that kills two birds with one stone, he can frame Orig and get rid of the tracker!

Now on the other hand, while you only seem to look at the worst case scenario, I like the best case one myself, that tomorrow sees us at 4-1-1... A much better situation then we are in now don't you think? You keep saying the SK's job is to eliminate mafia, then why don't you think the SK will hit a mafia tonight? Because you may be wrong? Oh thats brilliant... "Guys! I could be wrong! So listen to me here!" No... Unless you bring me a good solid reason why lynching a 100% known to be mafia is bad for the town that does not involve what the NK could/would be, I may drop Orig on my list... The way I see it, we lynch a mafia, we did a good job, great day, point for us, good thing!

Also I keep seeing that you are worried about a mislynch. If I believe Dybeck's claim, then I would be sure Orig was mafia, and thus we would not mislynch. And that will more or less prevent half of your bad scenarios right there! It all seems to be a win-win in my mind here...

Also on a side note: Do you see why I did not get into my other crap logic arguments? I mean I clearly outlined a case against the argument of "Cherry-picking" posts based solely on the fact you guys talked about it..... I would hate to hear what the discussion that came of of that sounds like... O.o

Dang my post had something else in it too...

Oh yeah! If the odds become the same either way, why not not take the risk of the SK not doing what you think he should, when we can play it safe and eliminate a mafia today without fuss? It seems kinda anti-town to see a mafia member, tell the SK to kill him, then randomly lynch another player!

And the last thing...

Right! I still rank Dybeck higher and so there is very little chance of me even Voting Orig so all this is a moo point... ^^ moooo... mooooo! (Yeah I know there is a "t" there... It's my post... leave me alone... )

Also you never said if you would lend me $5 or not...

[vollkan]

Your basis of why lynching Orig is bad seems to hang on the Sk Nking him. Again, stop assuming you know every move a person will make. I clearly remember you saying at one point and time that if Orig NKs we lynch him tomorrow... So logically, the real Sk would set him up by NKing someone else (Maybe me >< Ahhhh!!!!) In my mind that kills two birds with one stone, he can frame Orig and get rid of the tracker!

Not true. If Orig is mafia, for the sake of your argument:

If there are 2 NKs, unless the situation is 4:1:1, then we have no motivation to lynch Orig since he could be the SK. He might also not be the SK but, you see, we don't know that and, thus, we can't lynch him. Hence, we are more likely to lynch elsewhere which places the hidden SK at risk himself. The SK needs to get rid of mafOrig.

Now on the other hand, while you only seem to look at the worst case scenario, I like the best case one myself, that tomorrow sees us at 4-1-1... A much better situation then we are in now don't you think? You keep saying the SK's job is to eliminate mafia, then why don't you think the SK will hit a mafia tonight? Because you may be wrong? Oh thats brilliant... "Guys! I could be wrong! So listen to me here!" No... Unless you bring me a good solid reason why lynching a 100% known to be mafia is bad for the town that does not involve what the NK could/would be, I may drop Orig on my list... The way I see it, we lynch a mafia, we did a good job, great day, point for us, good thing!

I cannot provide that sort of justification. My basis for not lynching mafOrig being bad is that the SK needs to NK mafOrig, or else the SK is gutting their own hopes of success.

Also I keep seeing that you are worried about a mislynch. If I believe Dybeck's claim, then I would be sure Orig was mafia, and thus we would not mislynch. And that will more or less prevent half of your bad scenarios right there! It all seems to be a win-win in my mind here...

You are being simplistic here and ignoring the numbers.

If Orig is mafia, he will be NKed. Lynching him places the rest of us in danger of a random potshot at night by the SK. The SK will be targeting mafia, but I seriously doubt any of you actually want to peg things on the scumdar of a SK. Keeping Orig alive gives the SK a guaranteed successful target.

If Orig is SK, lynching him is immediate LYLO.

Oh yeah! If the odds become the same either way, why not not take the risk of the SK not doing what you think he should, when we can play it safe and eliminate a mafia today without fuss? It seems kinda anti-town to see a mafia member, tell the SK to kill him, then randomly lynch another player!

Not at all.

If Orig is mafia, the SK is going to kill tonight. The SK is going to benefit most from the death of a mafioso. Thus, giving the SK Orig to kill hands him the opportunity to help himself without presenting us with risk.

See, if we lynch Orig, we put the random shot in the SK's hands. If we don't lynch Orig, we all but ensure that the SK does not NK a townie. A townie NK is bad for both the SK and us, because the SK benefits most from a scum NK.

Lynching away from mafOrig today gives us the best chance of killing 2 mafia by tomorrow morning.

~~~~~~~~
As I have said, I think Orig is the SK. However, my "Don't Lynch Orig" policy is just as effective if he is mafia.

[dybeck]

I've answered like all of these... but I'll run through again.

Sorry that I'm no longer really reading the thread... it's frustrating when a scum gets fingered by two power roles, and yet the town still refuses to lynch.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

3) Where is your case against originality?

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

4) If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

5) Why did you claim prematurely?

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

Now for some of my own:
8) What is your scumdar? I want names, at least one sentence per person and a % ranking.

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

10) Why did you claim cop despite me having made it patently clear that lynching Orig was a bad idea? By this, I mean that all you did was needlessly out yourself if you were cop. If you were in real peril of lynch, then fine, but you weren't.

Lynching orig is not a bad idea. That's something shaft.ed has made you believe. The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

We need to lynch orig.

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

[vollkan]

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

You're expanding this story the more we go on.

For kicks: What made you figure that Orig was going to be today's lynch?

As for the 100% thing, let's think for a second.

If you are mafia, then you score an Orig lynch today and knock off a townie tonight putting us in 5:3 lylo. Then you get can argue tomorrrow that you were the actual cop because Orig was scum and that you weren't killed because the scum was wifoming the the town, etc.

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

Case. Not investigation. Shaft.ed's question was why didn't you actually make like a PBPA of dybeck trying to prove he was scum, rather than just saying "Orig visited someone and they are dead."

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

This is a poor attitude to take. You could look back over his posts for scumlinks etc.

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

Shaft.ed was obv SK, Orig is obv scum and now Korlash is "almost certain scum". This is making me headdesky.

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

I can't argue this because it is a subjective point.

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

No. As shaft.ed said:

The most obviously wrong aspect of your claiming post was the fact that you didn't even vote for originality. It seems that coming out in such a situation one would want to get votes moving in the direction of your guilty target. Yet you neglected to do so, were you flustered when making up content for that post?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

And why do you suspect them?

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

Your certainty, both ways, is mind-boggling.

I'm not even going to bother criticising this; it pretty much speaks for itself.

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

You're completely contradicting yourself. I am the one arguing the most emphatically against lynching Orig, but you have me at just 20%.

Lynching orig is not a bad idea. That's something shaft.ed has made you believe. The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

We need to lynch orig.

dybeck is using numerical analysis to fool you.

Mislynch = 4:3:1.
MafNK = 3:3:1.

In this situation, if the SK kills a townie the mafia win. Hence, the SK would be idiotic to NK. Of course, if Orig is mafia, the SK can safely kill Orig to make it 3:2:1.

If there is no SK killing of mafOrig
We open at 3:3:1. That's LYLO.
Maflynch = 3:2:1
MafNK = 2:2:1

Again, if SK hits town, he loses so the SK would be stupid to NK. It's another LYLO

Maflynch = 2:1:1
This can go any way. We need them to take each other out in the cross fire. They both need to kill the other to win, but hope that the other does not kill them.

This assuming wcs all the way down, with the mafia never hitting the SK. To maximise their own chances, they would want to get rid of the SK to get a clean LYLO with just the town.

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

See above.

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

Why shaft.ed and not me?

[Gemelli]

If there are 2 NKs, unless the situation is 4:1:1, then we have no motivation to lynch Orig since he could be the SK. He might also not be the SK but, you see, we don't know that and, thus, we can't lynch him. Hence, we are more likely to lynch elsewhere which places the hidden SK at risk himself. The SK needs to get rid of mafOrig.

I have a hard time following you here, Vollkan. Dybeck could also be the SK -- less likely than OrigSK, but still a plausible scenario -- does this concern you? In fact, ANY of us could feasibly be the SK. Saying "we don't know that [player X isn't the SK] and, thus, we can't lynch him" seems like an argument you could apply to eliminate ANYONE from lynch consideration.

My basis for not lynching mafOrig being bad is that the SK needs to NK mafOrig, or else the SK is gutting their own hopes of success.

Couldn't you make the same argument to argue that we shouldn't lynch mafDybeck, though? I suspect that regardless of whether he's mafia or cop, if we leave him alive today he's pretty much a goner tonight.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just want to be sure that we've covered all of our bases as we head into the final week of discussions. I have become convinced that lynching the SK today would be bad for the town. But I am not yet convinced that we've taken the odds of SKDybeck into fair consideration, and it seems to me that the arguments of wanting to leave mafOrig and SKOrig alive are just as applicable if we look at mafDybeck and SKDybeck.

I'm fine with assessing lynch candidates using the categories I listed in post 1335. But I think that we need to approach this decision from looking at our candidates along three dimensions: (1) most likely to be mafia, (2) least likely to be the SK, and (3) most likely to be scum overall. Looking at just one of those factors independent of the others seems to give us a limited perspective.

I'd like to see assessments of originality and dybeck along those three lines over the next few days, if any of you are up for it. I'll put my own together and will post it when it's ready.

All of this discussion is honestly making me wonder if it's actually in the SK's best interests to claim now, since that guarantees town protection at least for today. I think this is especially true if Dybeck is the SK, since he is far and away the leading candidate for a lynch at the moment.