Open 42 - Friends and Enemies - (Game Over) before 495

[Guardian]

Mod Post: Vote Count

Not Voting[7](Simenon, Phate, Samruc, Lemming1607, ChaosOmega, Shanba, Per)

[Simenon]

A change of thought. I know think Phate is the likely townie.

[Phate]

I merely made an offhand comment that you hadn't posted. I didn't make a calculated statement, a la "ChaosOmega needs to post, and no one else does. Furthermore, his lack of posting is scummy while no one else's is." I just said "Where is CO, anyway? He needs to post."

Odd that you always seem to misinterpret my words in the most suspicious way possible.

Any response, CO? Or should I take your silence as agreement that you're doing your damnedest to twist my words?

[Simenon]

Or should I take your silence as agreement that you're doing your damnedest to twist my words?

Why would a protown person say this.

[Phate]

Why not? I'm trying to provoke him into posting.

[Per]

Picking up my prod, but I have exams this week. One difficult one coming up so on Friday or Saturday I should really really be able to catch up once again..

[Phate]

I'd like an answer, Sim - why WOULDN'T a protown player say this?

[Simenon]

I'd like an answer, Sim - why WOULDN'T a protown player say this?

Using it as an argument makes no sense.

[Phate]

No, no, you misunderstand. I'm not using it as an argument. More of a taunt than anything. As I said, I'm trying to provoke him into posting. I'm also implying that suddenly disappearing after I've torn apart his argument and cast suspicion on him is scummy.

[Phate]

ChaosOmega, you need to fucking post. Respond to my post.

Lemming, you too. What do you think about the fact that Simenon is pushing for your lynch, and the rest of the town is leaning toward agreement? Can you respond to the concerns he's put forth?

Shanba, I'm taking up your offer, and I request that you do a reread and muster up some coherence. =P Now that you've said WHO you think is scum/not, say WHY, please.

Simenon, please follow through with your analysis of the voting record now. I'm interested in your interpretation.

Per, you also need to fucking post. Do so. Respond to Sim's suspicion of you. Hell, respond to ANYTHING or

ask for replacement

.

[Phate]

Oh, and Samruc, I'm conspicuously leaving you out because I can't think of anything in particular to ask you, but after a readthrough, my opinion of you is slightly altered. I know hold you and Per both at neutral - I suspect one of you is scum, but I don't have enough evidence to decide which. For this reason, I want you both to start posting.

Hmm.

Samruc, what do you think of Per?

Per, what do you think of Samruc?

[Samruc]

About Per, well, I said before that I feel pretty sure that he is town. At least sure enough to say that he is one of my least favourites for today's lynch.

I didn't see anyone comment on this:

Any argument based on what scum do is WIFOM honestly, because then you have people like Sammich who come out and accuse people.

Lemming apparently uses Sammich as an example of people playing scummy even when they aren't scum - Did he *know* Sammich was town? Scum tell or not?

[Phate]

Hmm. I don't know. Could be an innocent mistake, could be a scumtell. How long has Lemming been here anyway?

Hm. He's not that new.

I don't know. I would support his lynch at this point, but I don't know whether I'd call that particular post scummy. Shanba, Simenon, Per, CO, what do you think?

Lemming, care to explain?

[Simenon]

I used it more as a reference.

But I do hope to get an analysis in by tomorrow and I hope other players here share that goal.

[Guardian]

Everyone who has not posted on this page
(Lemming1607, ChaosOmega, Shanba)
has been prodded.

[Shanba]

I apologise. I got about halfway through day 1 on my readthrough before giving up, but I did find some interesting things. Remind me to speak to you when I'm not really damn tired.

[Phate]

Happy birthday, Shanba.

[Simenon]

Votes on townies (discounting randoms):
Per: 1/2
Lemming: 4/7
Shanba: 6/11
Phate: 1/2
CO: 1/2
Samruc: 2/3

Suviving Players Voted:
Lemming (Per; Post 105, Shanba; Post 98)
Shanba (Lemming; Post 44, Simenon; Post 76)
Samruc (CO; post 207)
Phate (Never)
ChoasOmega (Phate; Post 410)
Per (Never)
Simenon (Lemming; Post 164)

Just a way of condensing the information further.

I would like everyone to name their top suspect, using random.org for this order:

Per
Shanba
ChaosOmega (r. EmpTyger)
Phate (r. AlSleet (r. YogurtBandit))
Simenon
Lemming1607
Samruc

[Phate]

What do you mean, using random.org for order? Why would we randomly order our top suspects?

[Phate]

Oh. *is a dumbass* Never mind.

[Shanba]

OK. I reread the game and decided that the most useful thing to do was to look for connections - given we have 3 scum left, this is the best way to go about things. First, here are all the possible two player partnerships:

Phate/Samruc
Phate/Lemming
Phate/CO
Phate/Per
Samruc/Lemming
Samruc/CO
Samruc/Per
Lemming/CO
Lemming/Per
CO/Per

Now, looking at Phate's posts, Phate/CO seems very unlikely - it doesn't feel like distancing, and there was no need to bus. Phate/Lemming also seems unlikely - considering lemming was under a lot of pressure, I don't see him being so blatant about defending him. I also feel that Phate/Samruc is an unlikely combo. This means that I can only have Phate as scum with one other person, when he should have two scumbuddies. This only reinforces my impression that he is town.

Samruc/Lemming is a definite possibility - a few of Samruc's earlier posts towards Lemming definitely feel like distancing. And his latest post also feels off to me, as if he's trying to decide whether he should bus or not. I could see Samruc/CO - Samruc needles him a bit, but there's no really strong pressuring there. OTOH, the interaction Phate pointed out in his big analysis where CO seems to try and get Samruc to vote Crub does not really feel scumbuddyish. However, not discounting this one. Samruc/Per... eh. There's almost no interaction here.

Lemming/CO not only feels possible, but very likely. CO's attempt to link Lemming to Phate in his responses to Phate's analysis especially feel bad. They're also the two players who are scummiest individually - some of Lemming's comments are awfulscummy, and looking back I note that CO has comitted my favourite scumtell (I can't believe I missed that before.) Lemming/Per. Hmm. Interesting. Per's early interaction with Lemming seems genuine - the unvote more than the vote (which seems a little weak). I don't think it's an impossible pairing, but I'd count it as unlikely.

CO/Per - CO barely mentions Per. Per has an interesting little interaction where he seems fixated on the case that Phate made against Per while somehow not really committing to it.

So that leaves:

Phate/Per
Samruc/Lemming
Samruc/CO
Samruc/Per

Lemming/CO

Lemming/Per

Per/CO

blue for pairings I don't like much, red for pairings I do like. But there are three scum - that gives us some different things to analyse.

Samruc/Lemming/CO
Samruc/Lemming/Per
Samruc/CO/Per
Lemming/Per/CO

are the groups I am left with. If we look at the possible two player pairings and see which have likely pairings and which have unlikely pairings we get:

Samruc/Lemming/CO

Samruc/Lemming/Per

Samruc/CO/Per

Lemming/Per/CO

As before, except with orange for a pairing with both an unlikely component and a likely component. Now to look at these pairings as possibilities given the game so far. The most informative way to do this is to look at vote counts. Not all of them are useful - I've picked those I feel are most informative.

Samruc/Lemming/CO
Page 5 Vote Count:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon

,

Samruc, Lemming1607,

Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1]([colo=green]Per[/color])

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

)

This is definitely a distribution I could see for the scum.


Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)


Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado

,

Samruc

)

Note - a minor modification here (swapped round SirT and Samruc's names) to make the tags easier. Will be doing this throughout this section.)

I chose this vote count because of something interesting - in the page precedent, all votes on Crub would have been green. CO's jumped on a bandwagon driven by townies. This one strongly suggests CO is scum, independent of his partners. This holds for all the groups with CO in, as it would not change the Crub voters status. However, again the distribution for scum votes is right.

Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

) (

Noted here to show this supports Simenon's claim.

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Now this one is interesting to note that CO is now voting for Samruc. The red on red here is not an unusual distancing pattern for scum, and notably there hasn't been a single red on green since the random voting stage. This implies that the scum were interested in pushing bandwagons - that CO jumped off one then is significant. It makes sense to think that this is a scumbuddy interaction.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba, Per,

Lemming1607, ChaosOmega

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)

Again, it is notable that the red is fluid here, moving to the bandwagon of the lynchee with dangerous ease.

Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)

Not a very interesting vote count, but still shows the same distribution patterns I would expect. Useful as a d2 benchmark.

Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)

Not Voting[4](

Phate, Per, Jex,

Samruc

)

Interestingly, when Lemming votes for Sammich, Samruc unvotes. It could be that Samruc does not want a quicklynch or it could be that Samruc does not want to be on the wagon with his partner. This votecount is also notable for the two quick votes leading to a Sammich lynch half a page later (although one was Sammich :\)

End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

,

Sammich, Phate

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Per, Jex

,

Samruc

)

For once, I would say I'm not convinced by the distribution of votes here. I would have expected another scum on the wagon - it could be that Sammich's selfvote stopped that being possible.

Samruc/CO/Per

Page 5 VC:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon

, Samruc,

Lemming1607, Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1](

Per

)

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

Not Voting[2](

YogurtBandit, Crub

)

Okay then. In this vote count, we would have two scum with random or semi-random votes still on. It's not as nice a distribution as for the other one, but I'd still call it a possible one.

Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)



Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Samruc

)

The lone red on green here makes me think this is fairly unlikely. As I said before, red on green outside of random stage is not a particularly common thing. Minus points for this grouping from this vote count. Also would expect more red on the crubwagon by now.


Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub, Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Functionally, this one is fairly similar to the last one. However, not only is there a lone red on green, there's also the red on red. I don't see one scum lonevoting a townie while the other one distances from a scumbuddy the same way. Again, minus points.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba, Lemming1607,

ChaosOmega, Per

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)

This one works out better. Especially Per's late vote on the wagon. I think this vote count supports a CO/Per/Samruc grouping more than a Samruc/Lemming/CO grouping. That being said, the other vote counts support the Samruc/Lemming/CO grouping more so far.


Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)

Meh. Again, this is possible - the data here is skewed by the lack of votes from Per or Lemming. Given that Per was inactive whereas Lemming wasn't, I count this a point against this grouping.


Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

, Lemming1607[/color])

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)

Not Voting[4](

Phate, Jex

Samruc, Per

)

No scum on the Sammich wagon? Samruc's unvote doesn't make much sense if this is the grouping. If this were the grouping and Samruc wanted to look townie, I would have expected him to move to another wagon. This vote count is a major blow.

End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon, Lemming1607, Sammich, Phate

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Jex

,

Samruc, Per

)

No way in hell did scum decide not to push the Sammich wagon when he was such an easy lynch. CO's vote and Samruc's unvote make no sense, and Per's lack of any voting at all seem bizarre. This grouping seems very unlikely from this votecount.

Lemming/Per/CO


Page 5 VC:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon, Samruc,

Lemming1607,

Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1](

Per

)

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

This votecount is quite meh for the grouping, but still a possibility.


Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Samruc

)

Mm. This one would imply early distancing by Per by lonevoting a scumbuddy. I could see that - CO seems to pick up on it later on and copy Per. This VC fits quite nicely with this grouping


Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

We have the red on green again here. However, Phate has given a reasonable explanation for why COscum might vote Samructown here. This one is still possible.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba,

ChaosOmega, Per, Lemming1607

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc, Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)
All the scum on the Crubwagon? I'm not convinced. Scum don't often like to put all their eggs in one basket. Per's -1 followed by Lemming's hammer seems unlikely here.


Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)

Not a distribution I would expect from the scum at this point. Frankly, if this were the case I would expect jumps on the Sammich wagon from Per and Lemming in short order. I would also expect CO to consider jumping to the Sammich wagon here.


Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)


Not Voting[4](

Phate, Jex, Samruc,

Per

)

This seems more plausible. Lemming

has

jumped on the Sammichwagon. But again, there's a lack of Per. Given that Per posted last page, I'd have expected an easy townie vote from him here.


End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon, Sammich, Phate

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Jex, Samruc

,

Per

)

Eh. This has the same problems for this grouping as the two last VCs.

Just one more left (phew) Samruc/Lemming/Per


Page 5 VC:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon,

Lemming1607, Samruc,

Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1](

Per

)

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

Not Voting[2](

YogurtBandit, Crub

)

This one works for this grouping. The Samruc/Lemming thing here especially.


Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado

,

Samruc

)

What, no scum on a d1 4 person wagon? Psh. Seems very unlikely. Lemming's vote especially feels odd here - why vote the difficult Simenon wagon when Crub is a very easy vote indeed, and there are no scum there to risk being linked to? Also, I don't see Per keeing his distancing vote on with such a tempting target offered.

Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

The double red on red here is unlikely. I would expect at most one scum to be distancing here, rather than both, especially when there are wagons to push.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba, ChaosOmega,

Per, Lemming1607

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc,

Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)

This distribution here is certainly possible. 2 scum on one wagon while another pushes a second mislynch.


Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)
Meh. This one is OK. Works with the grouping, works without. It works better with Lemming's vote on the wagon:


Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)

Not Voting[4](

Phate, Jex,

Samruc,

Per

)

As I said, with Lemming's vote on the wagon this makes more sense. Why? In this grouping, lemming has been the one jumping on wagons - see the crubwagon twice. In which case, Samruc, who has played a fairly cautious game, would not want to be associated with Lemming, nor with wagoning.


End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon, Sammich, Phate

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Per, Samruc,

Jex

)
This section gives me rtoubles with every votecount. I would say that CO's vote makes more sense here as town, however.

So here is my conclusion:

Samruc/Lemming/CO is not only nice for the individual pairings, but also for the whole. Nearly all the vote counts fit this pairing best, and it has the Lemming/CO pairing in it. This is definitely my top pick.

Samruc/CO/Per has some good points going for it. A couple of the vote counts fit it nigh perfectly, and most of the others work fairly well. There are no unusual pairings in it, either, though it does not have the Lemming/CO pairing.

Lemming/Per/CO
Samruc/Lemming/Per: Neither of these groupings make much sense to me. Too many of the vote counts are odd if you use these pairings. Lemming/Per/CO is mor likely than Samruc/Lemming/Per, though.

Breaking it back down into individuals:

Phate: Probably not scum. I do not see him playing the way he has as scum.

Samruc: Interestingly, he fits my analyses best as a scumpartner. However, individually he is not particularly scummy. Eh. Probable scum.

Lemming: Does not fit the groupings as well as I thought, but the vota analysis shows that individually he is scummy - he often jumps on a big wagon when it is in full flow. Also, his interactions with CO are scummy. Probable scum.

CO: His voting record is not as scummy as Lemming, but the case that Phate brought against him yesterday still applies today. This, combined with the fact that he is in all the most likely groupings, makes me think he's very likely scum.

Per: Eh. Has not been as active as I'd like, but overall, his posts feel town. His voting record is OK (a couple of thigns give me pause for thought, but not much) and he doesn't fit my most likely grouping. Probably town.

[Phate]

That was amazing, Shanba. Your analysis has won me over. I had already believed that CO and (lately) Lemming were a scumpair, but your reasoning has decided my tossup between Per and Samruc.

[Simenon]

Hey shanba.

Why are you so awesome?

Although you might want to take into account Per's inactivity as a reason for all of those funky vote counts.

[Shanba]

I did consider Per's activity level, but for many of the votecounts he had made his megapost a page or so before. Also, CO has been fairly inactive, and it does not appear to have messed with the vote counts too much.

Vote: ChaosOmega

He's the one I'm most certain about - scummy individually, scummy pairings, in both of my favoured groupings.

[Simenon]

Hey shanba.

Remember all that time you spent writing up that massive analysis for why I must be scum in blue jam when I was the only person alive with a protown win condition?

This sounds vaguely reminiscent.