Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Trojan Horse]

Mod Edit

Official Vote Count #52

Not Voting[6](Oman, vollkan, Tarhalindur, pwayne66, Trojan Horse, theopor_COD)

In response to Tar's first order of business: NO. Absolutely not. We are still in "claim only to avoid being lynched" territory. I want us to lynch a scum without revealing who the vig is. (If the vig is still alive at the endgame, that's a BIG boost for our chances.)

[vollkan]

Crossed with Tar:

So, we're at lylo.

First order of business: Mass claim time?

Second order of business: Reading the thread for a change...

Trojan said it well: Absolutely not.

Let me show why:

Mislynch D3 = 3:2

MafNK = 2:2
We NEED the vig to NK mafia here to make it 2:1.

Now, on D4 if we lynch mafia we win, which should be easier because the vig can confirm himself.
However, even if something goes wrong and we mislynch D4, it becomes 1:1 with vig and mafia, giving us a draw. (At least, I think it is a draw)

In contrast,
if the vig is outed, the vig dies and the 2:1 situation is true LYLO.

Now,

Mafia lynch D3 = 4:1

MafNK = 3:1
--Vig NK mafia = 3:0 WIN
--Vig NK town = 2:1 (see above. This is LYLO if vig has died, and lynch-or-draw if vig lives)
--Vig no NK = 3:1

In the 3:1 scenario,

Mislynch

= 2:1
MafNK town = 1:1
--VigNK mafia = 1:0 WIN
--Vig NK town = Vig no NK (since same target) = 1:1

In that situation, we again need to maximise the vig's survival

And, obvious

Maflynch

= 3:0 win

Therefore, there is no good reason to out the vig today and it will be very harmful.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Told you I was town...

[Oman]

Okay, Tar mentioned a massclaim, which could be good, and I'd be happy to do it.

Secondly, we obviously have a doctor in here. And either a roleblocker or our SK/Vig didn't kill last night.

[vollkan]

Okay, Tar mentioned a massclaim, which could be good, and I'd be happy to do it.

Secondly, we obviously have a doctor in here. And either a roleblocker or our SK/Vig didn't kill last night.

This post is just weird.

Oman, there were 2 kills last night.

Mastermind of Sin, townie (town), killed night two.
tyhess, townie (town), killed night two.

It is not "obvious" that we have a doctor and our RB was lynched D1.

Moreover, I severely doubt we have a SK. This is a semi-open setup where we were told the scum and, moreover, a SK would make things hideously unbalanced. We've been over this already.

Moreover, I don't get why, in light of the numbers, you would support a mass claim at this stage. There is no advantage in a mass claim.

[Oman]

Ah, sorry. I missed that whole page 52.

Including your numbers and MoS' Bah.

I just read the day scene which had no who is dead thing so I got confused.

As there is no proven doctor, the vig staying alive is more important and as such I draw back my massclaim idea.

[pwayne66]

...Seriously? My one vote from two days ago is still ringing your scumdar? It's not like I lynched a claimed power role or anything...

Whats more, what is your beef with lynching flameaxe? I seem to recall seeing you on that wagon as well, its a little late to be having second thoughts.

[pwayne66]

Sorry...the above is directed at vollkan.

[vollkan]

1

...Seriously? My one vote from two days ago is still ringing your scumdar? It's not like I lynched a claimed power role or anything...

2

Whats more, what is your beef with lynching flameaxe? I seem to recall seeing you on that wagon as well, its a little late to be having second thoughts.

You're getting awfully emotional there.

1) Time lapse does not alter things and I am surprised you would use it as a defence. I attacked your vote at the time, and I stand by that. Granted, I will certainly be looking for things more recent, but you must see that your vote is a factor in my suspicion of you.

2) I don't recall criticising the wagon on flame in a general sense. Indeed, I think the wagon was justified. My problem is the lack of reasoning behind your vote. You referred to "reasons stated". The nearest clear attack on flame was 6 days earlier in a scumdar post, but in that post you did not clearly differentiate flame over Oman or Trojan. In that sense, my problem is that I never really saw you explaining

why

flame was the most scummy. You just seemed to decide he was scum.

[pwayne66]

You're getting awfully emotional there.

So?

1) Time lapse does not alter things and I am surprised you would use it as a defence. I attacked your vote at the time, and I stand by that. Granted, I will certainly be looking for things more recent, but you must see that your vote is a factor in my suspicion of you.

You seem to miss the point of my comment. I'm not defending my vote. I'm curious why my ONE single solitary vote on a claimed vanilla, two days ago, out weighs your concern for SEVERAL votes on a claimed POWER ROLE that occurred since then.

My problem is the lack of reasoning behind your vote. You referred to "reasons stated". The nearest clear attack on flame was 6 days earlier in a scumdar post, but in that post you did not clearly differentiate flame over Oman or Trojan. In that sense, my problem is that I never really saw you explaining why flame was the most scummy. You just seemed to decide he was scum.

Flameaxe- I can understand not liking white, his aggressive gameplay or his demanding style. Its the overall lack of contribution that bothers me, not just your responses to white.

Flameaxe- This guy. Doesn't want to play by the same rules as the rest of us. Sticks in head in rarely and then only to make contentless posts. You think Kakeng is bad, this guy has done it the whole game.

Flameaxe- I think flameaxe is scummy. Not wanting to play by the same rules as everybody else is scummy. Making infrequent posts is scummy. Making contentless post is scummy. Some people think that Kakeng is scummy because they think that making contentless posts and lurking is scummy. I think Flameaxe is more scummy that kakeng is scummy because flameaxe has been scummy the whole game. That is scummy.

Vote:FlameAxe

He's actively lurking and waiting for this deadline to expire.

[vollkan]

So?

Nothing right now, actually. Emotion can be a slight scum-tell, but I am going to treat it as a nullity for the time being.

The reason I noted it is the majority of your posts seem very restrained and controlled. This was an exception. I don't know exactly what

You seem to miss the point of my comment. I'm not defending my vote. I'm curious why my ONE single solitary vote on a claimed vanilla, two days ago, out weighs your concern for SEVERAL votes on a claimed POWER ROLE that occurred since then.

Your Tar vote was scummy; you aren't defending that. As to why I see so much significance to it: Your reasoning was scummy and equated to finding an excuse to lynch a claimed townie. MoS in 1064 argued convincingly in favour of lynching Kakeng, though I had reservations about the lynching of a claimed power role.

As for the flameaxe stuff, I did not say you did not make those comments or explanations. My problem was that I couldn't see things building up.

You said

Oman- I think that it is really really scummy that he jumps onto so many bandwagons b/c scummy people like to jump on lots and lots of bandwagons. Bandwagon hoping is a scummy thing to do.

tyhess- I think he is scummy. I have said so before. I think it is just as likely that he is making newbie mistakes.


Flameaxe- I think flameaxe is scummy. Not wanting to play by the same rules as everybody else is scummy. Making infrequent posts is scummy. Making contentless post is scummy. Some people think that Kakeng is scummy because they think that making contentless posts and lurking is scummy. I think Flameaxe is more scummy that kakeng is scummy because flameaxe has been scummy the whole game. That is scummy.

Trojan Horse- Being wishy-washy is scummy. Trojan Horse is wishy-washy, therefore, I will go out on a limb and say he is scummy.

...there you go.

then some posts later it was

Vote:FlameAxe

He's actively lurking and waiting for this deadline to expire.

And then you just moved to calling flame "scum" in your next PBPA.

As I said before, my problem was that you were not explaining why flame was becoming more scummy to you from that initial scumdar post I quoted.
~~~~~~~
As an aside, I intend on doing a PBPA of Oman soon.

[theopor_COD]

Ok guys just letting you know, I'm having real problems accessing the site and thus finding the time to play. I'm not asking for replacement in my longer drawn out games but don't expect a high frequency of posts because I just haven't the time I had a week or so ago.

This game is one of three/four which is top priority when I can get online. I'm okay with a massclaim at this point.

[Trojan Horse]

Theo obviously didn't read the last several posts.

THEO. WE NEED TO PROTECT THE VIG'S IDENTITY. A MASSCLAIM IS A BAD IDEA.

[pwayne66]

Let's not forget the possibility of a cult recruitment.

Worst case scenerio=

Mislynch= 2:2:1
Successful NK = 1:2:1 (game over)

This is a potential lylo situation.

So, factoring this in when we consider a mass claim: No way.

EVERYBODY is going to claim town. All we do is reveal to the mafia who the vig is. Even with a successful scum lynch, 3:1:1 and the scum NK the vig making it 2:1:1. and then we have a 50% chance of losing day 4, and 0% chance of winning day 4.

[theopor_COD]

Yeah I really ought to read then post. I will try and complete my analysis of everyone as soon as possible.

[vollkan]

As promised,

PBPA of Oman

14: Random votes Pwayne
23: Another random vote for flameaxe
27: Says Pwayne is obv scum or recruiter
64: Seems to have a favourable view of BS. Makes an attack on flame and votes (3rd on wagon)
73: "I think that we shouldn't force townies to claim, but lynching them isn't too bad an idea." Suggests town should go after mafia and mafia should go after cult.
92: He agrees with me that powerrole claims should not be countered, and agrees that there are wifomy.
99: Says Pwayne seems pro-town for his analysis. Questions Rump's opposition to the flame wagon.
101: Thinks Rump's defence of flame is contrived.
104: Explains origins of phrase "townie brownies"
115: More critique of Rump. Also prods tyhess, querying why he has no opinions.
119: Clarifies that newbies often try to protect themself
126: Is thinking Flame and Rump as mafia
133: He doesn't Theo's vote on Pwayne.
137: Defends Pwayne's defensiveness by arguing it is just his playstyle
140: Votes Theo
141: Unvotes, and then votes Theo (he forgot to unvote in 140)
144: Affirms his vote stands
148: Attacks Theo for fence-sitting because he called Rump and tyhess "newbish/scummy"
153: Attacks tyhess's word choice and says he is inclined to change to tyhess
160: Affirms he is going after mafia, not cult
182:

Tell me why its crap, I voted theo for starting a crap case, and now I'm being fosed for that being a crap case. Tell me, who is scummier than theo right now?

This is an interesting quote since he dodges the issue of whether or not the case is crap, to demand an alternative to Theo.
184: Awaits with baited breath
186: Again:

No to me he needs to point to someone more suspicious. What he's basically saying is that this bandwagon is invalid. If this one is invalid, then he needs to propose a better one lest the town stalls.

Oman is not defending his own wagon; he is simply demanding an alternative.
190: I have attacked Oman on this very point. His response:

[quote="vollkan"
If I were to vote X on the basis of me not liking his avatar and you were to, rightly, call me out for that being a stupid vote reason there would be no onus on you to prove someone else was scummier than X.

A good point, though would you relaly feel the wagon is valid based on avatar? [/quote]

He really avoids what I am saying by just calling it a "good point"
194: He will not make judgments on the edit fiasco
196: Asks MoS to explain why he finds EITHER Theo or Flame to be pro-town, saying he thinks they are both anti-town. Oman thinks CKD is pro-town.
208: Nothing
210: Accuses MoS of wifom
217: Effectively a QFT of CKD.
219: Votes MoS for having a "developed plan" on theo and flame, with the alternative being theo and flame are genuine
222: MoS is scummy for not jumping on Oman's wagons for bad reasons. A very odd thing to call a scumtell.
225: After I FoS Oman, he says "Developed stance" not "developed plan"

Oman is basically saying that you should have joined the wagons unless you can articulate a good reason why not to, and he thinks you are scummy for that.

Actually I don't feel he should have joined the wagons. My point was more that he didn't and his reasons were unsatisfactory. I don't mind people not joining a wagon saying "theres enough on them" or "my gut says no" but the fact that he tried to put some "factual" (in the context of the game) reasoning behind it makes me uncomfortable.

227: Further clarifies the meaning of "developed stance" as being that was MoS calling them pro-town without evidence.
230: Accuses MoS of being scum with flame or theo and of buddying up to the other.
233: "My biggest problem was not that he didn't see them as scummy, but that he gave crap reasons for it, AND ignored half the case, Vollkan."
235: Clarification
237: Requests clarification
239: Can't stand metagame
241: Is unsure as to what MoS is, but thinks he is not protown
310: Explains that he agrees with me a lot because I am persuasive and authoritative. <3
317: Applauds someone for "Calling MoS out"
319: Nothing really
321: Same
325: Attacks tyhess's scumdar list as "sketchy"
340: More anti-metagaming sentiment
343: Asks for clarif. from Theo
345: Same
348: Votes Theo for accusing Oman of fishing.
350: Scumdar

Tyhess: Gets bit uppity about the edit thing.

Vollkan: Defends trojan a bit, but in true vollkan style. Seems to be on the right side of everyone. Either agreeing or being agreed with. Works hard on either side of the MoS/Oman debate. Makes a comment about "If MoS is scum this has validity" (or somewhat) but I don't see how this is even logical. If we knew mos was scum we needent worry. I also don't like the way MoS's not reading the game was "rational"

MoS: I still don't like that post about Flameaxe and theo, for the same reasons that he ignores a lot of game content when he posts them. He ignores a question from me in 211 about blackstrike. MoS either doesn't read or is constantly twisting people's words (see: 228) ZOMG NOTE:
MoS wrote:
You don't have to be sure of our alignment
SINGULAR! Theo and MoS a team? Or Flameaxe and Mos? (I'm not sure to who he refers). MoS wants me to metagame him (?)

244 Mos likes to WIFOM himself in 3rd person. 248 MoS proves he doesn't read the game by saying I called him scum.

CKD: Absolutley owns MoS in 214

Pwayne: Posts without comment on the action Then gets into it and calls MoS on a few things. Now I find this interesting as it would have been almost easier to go after me had Pwayne been scum. He could have got vollkan on side, and with him, the town. Pwayne scores high townie brownies for it.

Blackstrike: Is he still here? I thought he posted a "will post content" and then bailed. But it turns out he came back...just ...not to post content.

White I dislike white's analysises. Basically you're either newb, scum, or neutral.

353: Agrees with MoS that White is not making conclusions
356: Sarcasm to Theo
358: More of the same
363: Agrees with me when I question Theo's accusations of fishing by Oman
421: Promises content
422:

FTR, I can't pick a lynch atm. Theo is crazy, as is MoS, but I'm willing to bet that MoS has a plan and Theo will come good. I'm gonna put a vote on the player I think has been the most sketch so far without reason.

Vote Tyhess

MAJORFOS: Flameaxe I am against voting for lurkers when the only thing they've done in ages is lurk.

Tyhess has changed his stance on MoS a fair bit without seeming to, his posts are contradictory and sometimes even within themselves. I disagree right now with the other 3 major wagons.

430: Is confused by MoS and doesn't know what to think
448: Votes MoS
451: jokes
454: nothing
481: Unvotes MoS for a rational explanation
484: nothing
487: nothing
489: Requests clarification
492: promises content
494: is drunk
498: A claim would not be the be-all-and-end-all
500: Attacks CKD
502: Gets caps lock rage over CKD querying why Oman wants claims if he is not going to take them at face value
504-512: spam
548: Votes White, reasons unclear
555: nothing
558-560: More anti-White
573: Queries about deadline lynch
576: Will favour lynch at deadline
596: Thinks CKD is a "wildcard"
598: Wants extension
600: nothing
626: interesting post:

Unvote Vote Flameaxe

You're doing little for the game, and my white vote is doing nothing where it is.

Very little explanation and his reason for leaving white is curious
628: baited breath
630-633: Asks for content from flame
678: Unvotes flame, returns to white
727: Thinks Trojan's "Pressured to vote" was odd
739: accuses Trojan of backpedalling
751: Baits breath
767: Apologises for LA
780: Would support the lynch of Trojan, white or tyhess.
783: nothing
797: Wonders if we should wait for deadline
822-878: Nothing
886: Votes Tar for bandwagoning 4 days out of deadline
888-958: nothing
963: Pwayne and CKD get townie brownies.
965: MoS gets townie brownies
981: He misread Pwayne, since he thought Pwayne was against lynching Tar. Votes Pwayne
983: "Sure, You and CKD are pro-tar lynch, who you accept is a vanilla. So you're pro-town lynch."
986: Wants pwayne to die
989-996: nothing really
1035: Suggests a scum RB is plausible
1042: Votes tyhess for "trying to be town"
1123: Questions about cult. INterestingly, says "Tyhess was dumb, but I wouldn't vote on it."
1126: cultists will work against scum
1129-1140: nothing really
1156: Votes Tar for acting invulnerable.
1160: Queries why Pwayne voted flame
1169: Says tyhess is "scummy as hell". This is another flip in his view of tyhess
1172: "I'm fine with pwayne's vote, it seems logical."
1181: Agrees with me and FoSes tyhess for the apparent contradiction
1189: UnFoSes
1194: Would support a flame lynch
1197: " Its casual lynch support, because I casualy support the wagon, whether it lynches or not is really regardless, I just want the activity." Doesn't care about the outcome of flame's lynch
1201-1215: nothing really
1218: Votes Trojan for "That is a useless line and everytime I've seen it its scum trying to deflect."
1222: Oman admits I "persauded him mightily"
1233: humour
1261: The hammer
1263-1267: Nothing really
1278: Supports massclaim
1280: retracts

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Overall, some scumminess and lack of original content, often just agreeing with me. Nothing overly-obvscum though. The flipping on tyhess is particularly odd, along with the "developed stance" debacle. Possibly scum with Pwayne.

[pwayne66]

Vollkan has two points about my scumminess. First: Some weird theory that my stance against Flameaxe wasn't developed enough (oman, is that you?) to justify my vote. This is in some bizzare way, a scum tell. I would defend myself here, but I see no need. If Vollkan would be so kind as to demonstrate his superior stance developing skills as they pertain to Flameaxe, I will. While he is at it, he could show me Theo's, tyhess', and Oman's.

The second point is that my reasoning for wanting to lynch a claimed townie was scummy. I have defended my actions and admitted I was wrong. I think it is Vollkan's turn:

If we get into the situation where someone is forced to claim vanilla, then we are basically forced to lynch a townie.

In short, if someone does claim vanilla they really force our hand. But that just demonstrates that the vanillas should do all they can to avoid having to claim.

At this stage of the game, I think the only real difference the cult makes to play strategy is that it provides a good reason for lynching claimed vanillas. A vanilla lynch is still very bad, because it helps the scum, but it is better than the cult gaining members.

Pwayne was clearly not calling for the lynch of vanillas, he was saying (as I have been also) that a dead vanilla is better than a claimed and therefore recruited vanilla.

However, if someone claims vanilla then it makes sense to lynch them, since they will in all likelihood be culted.

The point, which you evidently miss, is that a dead vanilla is better than a claimed vanilla who will get recruited.

...he was correct about lynching claimed vanillas...

I happen to agree with him on his Oman stance. His Oman-Pwayne stance is ridiculous.

[vollkan]

Vollkan has two points about my scumminess. First: Some weird theory that my stance against Flameaxe wasn't developed enough (oman, is that you?) to justify my vote. This is in some bizzare way, a scum tell. I would defend myself here, but I see no need. If Vollkan would be so kind as to demonstrate his superior stance developing skills as they pertain to Flameaxe, I will. While he is at it, he could show me Theo's, tyhess', and Oman's.

I'll repeat what I have already said.
In the scumdar post you did not differentiate flame. Then you vote flame for lurking (rightly so) and then you move to calling flame "scum" in your next scumdar (that's all you have to say)

My quibble with this is that you never explained why flame had become scum. He was scummy with other people in the first scumdar, then you voted for lurking, then he was simply "scum".

I'd like to know when it was, and why, that your opinion on flame cemented such that he became obvscum to you and, moreover, why you neglected to explain this.

As for my own suspicions, I was consistent:

Flameaxe: I suspected him early on, but by slipping out of the game everything has progressed beyond that point. I will be watching flame or his replacement.

I voted him in 672 for an OMGUS attack on White
In 714 I maintained that my vote stood until he opened up, ending his anti-town behaviour.

Flameaxe - I didn't like him early on. His only post in this whole Pwayne-Tar affair was an "I told you so". His previous posts were all useless one-liners. 70%.

In 1045 I vote flame for his lack of contribution and to avoid No Lynch
1078: I maintained I would prefer flame to kakeng
1081: I comment on his scummy remark that he had lurked to victory in another game
1074: I accuse him of deliberately lurking
1098: I would prefer flame over Oman

Flameaxe: Lurking, unhelpful and scummy. This guy is topping my list. 75%.

The thing I notice here is that Flame's posts are, as per usual, entirely devoid of any real content. His criticism of Tar's voting is weak and he doesn't really make any comment as to his own suspicions, simply saying what it looks like.

...

For now, Vote: Flameaxe .

I think flame is scummier than you do, but that may just be that I tend to be pretty harsh on non-contribution generally. In any case, it gives me something to think about.

That's my own. I was consistent that flame was the scummiest.

I will do the other three player's if you want me to; it could prove worthwile.

As for the vanilla stuff, I do not defend those posts. However, they were all made before 992 where I proved numerically that lynching vanillas was a bad thing. At the point in the game where those posts were made, I had not completed this analysis.

I happen to agree with him on his Oman stance. His Oman-Pwayne stance is ridiculous.

How is it ridiculous?

[pwayne66]

As for the vanilla stuff, I do not defend those posts. However, they were all made before 992 where I proved numerically that lynching vanillas was a bad thing. At the point in the game where those posts were made, I had not completed this analysis.

After 992 and your analysis, I changed my position as well. If we both believed the same thing, and changed our minds at the same time using the same data, how can you be so critical of my position?

Fair enough. This analysis seems accurate (though incomplete). I agree that killing Tar solely on his claimed van-townie to prevent recruitment is not as sound as I perceived it.

Without your "lynching vanilla's is scummy" on ice, your case has been reduced to this business with Flameaxe. So lets move on.

I will do the other three player's if you want me to; it could prove worthwile.

Don't bother, I am on it. I'll be answering the rest of your post as well.

[pwayne66]

In the scumdar post you did not differentiate flame. Then you vote flame for lurking (rightly so) and then you move to calling flame "scum" in your next scumdar (that's all you have to say)

A few post prior to this I stated my MoS/FA scumpair theory:

Mastermind of Sin - Scum. He jumped back on my radar. Yesterday, immediately after a bandwagon against Flameaxe started, he changed his stance to go after a very popular choice, Kakeng ( a diversion?) . This occurred after he passionately defended the call to get a role claim (so much so he voted for tyhess for disagreeing with him). So what's the point of getting a role claim if your going to kill a power role anyway? He then goes on to defend Flameaxe's absence (he also defended Flameaxe in his first few posts. Oman called him out on it. This is when MoS famously decided to stop answering questions in order to flush out scum.) Today he lists flameaxe as scummy with no explanation (distancing?).

...this in conjunction with white jumping my ass for not specifying whether I thought people were scum or not in my scumdar, and then coupled with the fact that the reasons that I have thought FA was scummy have been beaten to death, caused me to think that my choice of wording would be obvious.

My quibble with this is that you never explained why flame had become scum. He was scummy with other people in the first scumdar, then you voted for lurking, then he was simply "scum".

Same as above ^^.

I'd like to know when it was, and why, that your opinion on flame cemented such that he became obvscum to you and, moreover, why you neglected to explain this.

Same as above ^^.

Now, I did a thorough breakdown of attitudes toward FA from post 600 on:

627-791
This period was marked by bickering primarily between white and FA. Oman Votes for FA for a wisecrack that FA had made toward the Mod. Volk pressures FA a bit and eventually votes for him.
Oman drops his vote in post 679 indicating that his vote was a pressure vote and that FA was playing ball now. Tyhess FOSes FA in post 713 for being unhelpful. TH weighs in post 722 saying that he was not suspicious of FA:

This whole thing started off with Flameaxe saying that his schedule had gotten in the way of a deep analysis; something I can certainly sympathize with, given what I have on my plate right now. It looks like White just saw an opportunity to apply a little pressure to Flameaxe and look for scumtells. And then Flameaxe responded in kind. Natural mafia play. Null tells from both.
I was absent for the vast majority of this. When I did emerge in 791, I posted that FA was being unhelpful.

1006-1107
This is the period following me being grilled about my vote on Tar. Giving a scumdar, I say that FA is scummy:

Flameaxe- This guy. Doesn't want to play by the same rules as the rest of us. Sticks in head in rarely and then only to make contentless posts. You think Kakeng is bad, this guy has done it the whole game.

White and I get into it and I post a more direct and mocking version in 1010:

Flameaxe- I think flameaxe is scummy. Not wanting to play by the same rules as everybody else is scummy. Making infrequent posts is scummy. Making contentless post is scummy. Some people think that Kakeng is scummy because they think that making contentless posts and lurking is scummy. I think Flameaxe is more scummy that kakeng is scummy because flameaxe has been scummy the whole game. That is scummy.

Volk weighs in on 1018 saying:

Flameaxe - I didn't like him early on. His only post in this whole Pwayne-Tar affair was an "I told you so". His previous posts were all useless one-liners. 70%

In his scumdar, he lists:

me 75%
FA 70%
TH 65%
Theo65%
Oman65%
Kak 60%

Despite this he opts to vote for Kak (his number 6) in post 1022

In post 1044, I vote FA to avoid no lynch saying:

He's actively lurking and waiting for this deadline to expire.

In
1046 Volk follows suit putting a third vote on FA (the 2nd coming from White)

In post 1049 theo weakly suggests:

Flameaxe needs to pipe up. Other than that well I'm stumped.

In post 1061 TH indicates that he is more suspicious of tyhess that flameaxe by saying, well:

I'd certainly prefer to lynch tyhess than Flameaxe.

1068, after MoS pushes a Kakeng lynch, Volk states he would rather lynch FA. Followed by 1072-1080, where Theo, tyhess and Tar all support a kakeng lynch rather that FA.
But in 1081, Theo finally realizes that FA has been lurking!

...the longer Flameaxe fails to add content the more he concerns me, his lurking now - its active lurking because he's posting elsewhere concerns me greatly.

1083 MoS defends FA's absence

1086 Tar says

Flameaxe concerns me, but with the impending deadline I think that he will have to wait until tomorrow. Let's stay with the option that lets us get a lynch today, okay?

In post 1100 I point out that MoS defended FA.
In 1133 I announce my suspicions of MoS/FA. I call FA scum.
In 1135 Volk lists FA as his top suspect.
TH finally comes up to speed in 1142 with this

Well, I finally have a reason to be suspicious of Flameaxe; one that didn't arise until the end of the day, too late for me to respond to it. We were all scrambling to find someone to lynch (way better to take a shot then to no lynch), but Flameaxe seemed content to just sit back and let us fight. Maybe he didn't care if we ended up with a no lynch?

In 1160 I vote for FA "for reasons already stated."

This from Tar in 1165:

Oman and/or Flameaxe could use some pressure right about now, based on that reaction alone.

A great non-mention of FA by Theo in 1167:

Anyways I'm surprised at the reaction to Tar's vote . . I didn't find it all that scummy, random votes aren't scummy. Oman from a re-read bugs me a lot, yet if we have a cult about can they still recruit if so they are still a big problem and if they can then the likes of Tar are likely cultists.

In 1171 Volk votes for FA for "posts devoid of content"

Nothing new from post 1183 either...

Of the three current bandwagons, my preference would be for a Flameaxe vote, due to his unhelpfulness at the end of day 1.

or 1194 from TH either:

I'm thinking about a Flameaxe lynch, just for his apparent lack of interest at the end of day 1

In 1195 Oman offers this developed stance:

[quote ="Oman"]Aye Trojan, I'd go for a Flameaxe lynch.[/quote]

This was the real shocker. I assumed that Volk just missed this when he was accusing me of not having a good reason to lynch FA... but I was wrong...

[quote ="Volk"]You haven't mentioned any suspicion of flameaxe up until now.[/quote]

...so if he noticed, why am I the one he is brow beating?

1206 Theo suggests that TH and FA are a scumpair.

1218 Theo Votes TH
1219 Oman Votes TH
1238 Theo Votes FA (later he says for an unanswered question in 1232)
1254 tyhess Votes for FA
1262 Oman's weird lynch of FA.

How is it ridiculous?

The claim is ridiculous b/c

A- You can't call me scum for suggesting that we lynch claimed vanillas without being a hypocrite.

and

B- My contribution, stance, developed reasons whatever you want to call it for thinking that FA was scum and then voting to lynch him are better more solid, more consistent, and less suspicious than Oman's, tyhess' and Tar's, and at least as good as yours and theo's, possibly better. Your case is contrived and weak (which in itself is inconsistent and worthy of suspicion). At the very very least, my stance on FA was by far the least weak.

C- You have made ZERO connections between me and Oman! You have said I am scummy (a fact that you fail to support yet continue to hammer away upon) and two that Oman is scummy (with which I agree)

[Trojan Horse]

Since vollkan did a PBPA analysis of Oman, I want to look at either vollkan or pwayne next. I just may have the time to do a PBPA of my own tomorrow (Thursday is one of my lighter days). But which should I look at first? I'm not sure...

-I think the whole Oman/pwayne thing suggested by vollkan is a legitimate possibility. Perhaps some of pwayne's posts will link him to Oman as well. But...

-Knowing that my scumdar is faulty (MoS and tyhess were my top suspects for a while, and they both turned up protown), I want to take a closer look at vollkan, who has NOT looked scummy at all to me. He may well have me fooled. I want to make sure I didn't miss any scumtells from him.

Eh, I'll eventually do an analysis of both of them. Tomorrow, I guess I'll just pick one at random to analyze first.

(Oh, pwayne: I'll take a closer look at your latest post shortly. But as for your final point- that there are no connections between you and Oman- what about all the "townie brownies" he threw your way? )

[pwayne66]

He gave them to CKD and MoS as well. ^^

[Trojan Horse]

Good point.

[pwayne66]

The PBPAs seem to be a good idea. I'd like to grab on and do TH's. He is my number 2 at this point. Expect one tomorrow.

[vollkan]

After 992 and your analysis, I changed my position as well. If we both believed the same thing, and changed our minds at the same time using the same data, how can you be so critical of my position?

You did change your position two posts later, but in 993 it looked like you were still trying to argue for the lynch:

I don't have a clue what these numbers mean, but if they say what you claim, then I am mistaken. How does this mean I am scum? Is white scum for saying:

....

We certainly should! This lynch isn't about whether I am right or wrong, it is about a favorable outcome for the town. The numbers you have provided seem to be the odds that I am right that Tar in vanilla townie and that the cult will recruit him. What are the odds of a favorable outcome?

If you were not advocating the lynch here, I apologise, but I took it as meaning that you were trying to ignore what I had written, despite acknowledging what my numbers had meant in the first part.

I knew there was something wrong here, because I would not have suspected you so strongly if what you are saying is the case. And I found it. Back in 951 I also looked at your position critically and FoSed you for it:

Advantages of Lynching Tar
* Cult is less likely to have 2 members tomorrow. As MoS says, Tar is a known vanilla so he will be a less desirable cult recruit.
* No prospect of a "possible cult" Tar lingering

Disadvantages of Lynching Tar
* He's still a townie at the moment. Thus, this lynch has no prospect of helping us.
* No information value at all. We are not going to learn anything that we can use to associate people as scum.
* Basically helps the mafia by taking out the cult for them
* Prospect of cult recruiting elsewhere and grabbing an unknown

I had been thinking about it for some time and these were my results. The argument still persisted after this, evidenced by the fact that I needed to make a quantitative attack in 993.

me 75%
FA 70%
TH 65%
Theo65%
Oman65%
Kak 60%

Despite this he opts to vote for Kak (his number 6) in post 1022

You're ignoring the fact that, between those posts, Theo and MoS had been calling for Kak's lynch with the "let's lynch the scumz". The deadline was imminent and he was the only lynchee that had agreement. Oh and I unvoted in 1037 after the claim.

A- You can't call me scum for suggesting that we lynch claimed vanillas without being a hypocrite.

Not a hypocrite. I had officially had opposition since 951. Your argument struggled on even after 993, though it was clear by that stage that you had seen your line was not in the town's interest, since you also said

I don't have a clue what these numbers mean, but if they say what you claim, then I am mistaken. How does this mean I am scum? Is white scum for saying:

B- My contribution, stance, developed reasons whatever you want to call it for thinking that FA was scum and then voting to lynch him are better more solid, more consistent, and less suspicious than Oman's, tyhess' and Tar's, and at least as good as yours and theo's, possibly better. Your case is contrived and weak (which in itself is inconsistent and worthy of suspicion). At the very very least, my stance on FA was by far the least weak.

I was judging you relative to my own, rather than relative to anyone else. I'll look over Oman, tyhess and tar soon to see if what you are saying is true. If so, that constitutes a cause for suspicion of them as well.

C- You have made ZERO connections between me and Oman! You have said I am scummy (a fact that you fail to support yet continue to hammer away upon) and two that Oman is scummy (with which I agree)

C+P from my PBPA of Ouman

99: Says Pwayne seems pro-town for his analysis.
133: He doesn't Theo's vote on Pwayne.
137: Defends Pwayne's defensiveness by arguing it is just his playstyle
350:

Pwayne: Posts without comment on the action Then gets into it and calls MoS on a few things. Now I find this interesting as it would have been almost easier to go after me had Pwayne been scum. He could have got vollkan on side, and with him, the town. Pwayne scores high townie brownies for it.

963: Pwayne and CKD get townie brownies.
1172: "I'm fine with pwayne's vote, it seems logical."

It could be a scumlink, it could be buddying, it could be nothing. I don't intend to think on it any further unless one of you comes up scum. The point is that there is a possible link there, and that it is only in the town's best interests if we are aware of it.