Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[shaft.ed]

Man, I'm losing the vast memory stores that this game used to occupy. I'd have to say even with Korlash's recent postings, I think he's managed to drop about as many scum tells in the last three pages as Oman did in the first 43 pages. But his posting seems to be very stream of conciousness, and seat of his pants. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it, but the list of contradictions is troubling. I'll have to make more time for a thorough analysis. If he is mafia, he's either really really paranoid or really really ballsy.

Also, I'm very troubled that dybeck has been able to completely fly under the radar for the last week. He's even gotten away with a terribly scummy post with just passing mention from a couple players. I need to get back onto his post history as well.

Finally, speaking of flying under the radar, I'd really like it if ETT and Lucienne could add a bit more to the discussion. Your positions seem much more in the middle ground of things and they are also a bit guarded in my opinion. I also realize that AlyG and orig are doing this just as much, but orig has been discussed in great length and AlyG is a confirmed tracker so I am not pressuring them since they will be almost 100% non-lynch considerations for me today. But anything you two would like to add to the discussion would of course be helpful.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #30!

dybeck (2) - originality, AlyG
Korlash (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, shaft.ed, Elias_the_Thief, Gemelli, Korlash, vollkan

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 8

[vollkan]

Streeflo, I unvoted Korlash in #1166:

Unvote but I maintain an FoS on you.

Unvote

[Korlash]

Wait I thought Vollkan unvoted... Did he revote me? How did I miss that? o.O

[Streeflo]

Votecount Fixed

[vollkan]

No. I did not revote you. Streeflo just overlooked my unvote.

Anyway, Korlash, if you missed my question from before, I will quote it below:

Korlash, I have a question: If, hypothetically, I was lynched today and came up town, who should Orig vig tonight?

Well the obvious answer would be me wouldn't it. Just based on all my bad attacks on you. But if your asking for my most likely scum, Dybeck is top right now(Not that he is anywhere near vote worthy yet, he is just top of a really small list)

The bad attacks would make you look scummy, yes. To make my question clearer: From your own perspective, who would you want NKed in the scenario I described?

[Korlash]

NKed by the vig? Hmmm... Dybeck. It's not much of a question. It's pretty much "who do you most suspect as mafia?" and I have already told you that.

But if your question was merely to prod me to see if I actually want someone NKed then the answer is yes. I feel if we have a Vig we need to use him. But that is just my opinion. I suppose it's a good thing I am not the vig here huh? lolz... >.> <.<

[Korlash]

Oh mod.. I hate to double post especially just for this.. but...

Korlash (1) - vollkan

It should be "Korlash (1)- Dybeck"... I think...

Thanks!

Also it is five to lynch yes? so I am not putting a L-1 vote here so

Vote: Dybeck

Please explain your vote on me with specific details, and stop just posting worthless stuff. I would appreciate some real posts out of you for a change. (At least while I have been playing. Maybe he used to post good stuff.)

[vollkan]

Streeflo, the votecount is still wrong You removed dybeck's vote for korlash instead of mine

NKed by the vig? Hmmm... Dybeck. It's not much of a question. It's pretty much "who do you most suspect as mafia?" and I have already told you that.

But if your question was merely to prod me to see if I actually want someone NKed then the answer is yes. I feel if we have a Vig we need to use him. But that is just my opinion. I suppose it's a good thing I am not the vig here huh? lolz... >.> <.<

Right.

Korlash, in the scenario I described, a misvig causes a town loss. That was the purpose of my question; to see how much concern you have for the consequences of things, evidently

not much

.

Now, to continue with what I was saying yesterday before I began trying to press this question out:

So overall, while it is not good to put me in that much "danger" it is very much needed for me to "talk."

This is a poor, reaching excuse to justify things in hindsight.

No offense but if someone "ordered" me to not do a night action it wouldn't automatically mean I won't do it. You are basically saying "If you NK we will automatically lose this game." Because you are saying you will lynch a towny tomorrow if he NKs and thus I think we lose.

So if I were him I would not take you seriously.

Also, If I have a strong suspicion of someone I would NK them as vig anyways. If I hit town, then we go to lynch or lose. But if I hit mafia then we have a chance. It's a gamble, but some people may see it as a good move. Plus I do not see Originality as the best person to put my trust in keeping his word. So yeah, I am afraid he is going to NK. And I will be afraid no matter what he says.

Your risk assessment is WAY OFF here. It is not a "gamble"; it is effectively suicide.

I really dislike the bolded sentence. The way you have worded it, it looks to me like you are recommending that Orig ignore our demands.

So even though you have a lot to go on, you had nothing on me personally. I mean if I had acted %100 pro-town it wouldn't even matter how Oman had been playing because you would have no evidence against me. So I always think a replacement needs to get heard.

Here you are trying to divorce yourself from Oman's actions.

Man, I'm losing the vast memory stores that this game used to occupy. I'd have to say even with Korlash's recent postings, I think he's managed to drop about as many scum tells in the last three pages as Oman did in the first 43 pages. But his posting seems to be very stream of conciousness, and seat of his pants. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it, but the list of contradictions is troubling. I'll have to make more time for a thorough analysis. If he is mafia, he's either really really paranoid or really really ballsy.

What we are seeing here, is Korlash coming into this game with a tremendous and very dodgy attack (particularly that list of contradictions), being royally defeated in argument and now retreating to this "stream of consciousness" style where he is basically just denying all his past actions on the basis of him being wrong at the time.

If it means anything, a meta-check of Korlash shows his

unique

style of posting is at least consistent with his play overall. That suggests that we might pay more attention to the scumminess of what he is saying, rather than the bizarre way he says things.

[vollkan]

Also it is five to lynch yes? so I am not putting a L-1 vote here so Vote: Dybeck

Please explain your vote on me with specific details, and stop just posting worthless stuff. I would appreciate some real posts out of you for a change. (At least while I have been playing. Maybe he used to post good stuff.)

Why are you so concerned about not being the one to drop the L-1 vote? That indicates that you have concern about the ramifications of the lynch.

[Korlash]

*is confused*

define "stream of consciousness", "divorce yourself from Oman's actions.", and "unique style of posting."

Also, I am in no way trying to tell Orig what to do. I am merely pointing out that there is absolutly no way you can stop him form a kill other then "Do not do it!" I mean take your senario:

We lynch town, Mafia NK's town, Orig kills town= 3 town dead. If you lynch Orig tomorrow it is game over. so obviously either you would rather lose then have a pretty good chance of killing a mafia, Or your a mafia trying to stop the vig from killing a mafia.

Now take We lynch town, Mafia NK town, Orig kills mafia. Would you lynch him for that? i mean he took out a mafia. I find it hard to believe you would sacrifice two more townies just because he did something protown.

Now we come to we lynch mafia, Mafia NKs town, Orig NK's mafia. We just turned the tables on the mafia. Would you waste day three killing a known towny when there is only one mafia left?

Ok, now is when I think it wise to point out I keep hearing you say Orig is likely to be NKed anyways... If I was going to be NKed I would want to tat least try and take out a scum... Threatening to lynch him in no way stops him if he is convinced he will be NKed...

Lastly, if we do lynch mafia, they Nk town, and Orig nks town. Then we are not totally in LYLO I think... maybe not... Point is, we would not want to waste our possibly last lynch killing a "known" towny right? So I do not see how threatening to lynch him for a Nk is suppose to keep him from NKing... And that is why I am considering the possibility he may NK someone.

And what I meant with my bolded sentence is that your claim to "lynch if he NKs" seems to me a very anti-town thing, if you actually plan to follow it up. I could definitely see that as a mafia way to prevent a nk from a vig. Then again I can also see it as a towny thing to say, I just do not see a towny actually letting 5 townies die this late in the game.


That is about all I can comment on until I fully understand all your... weird things...

Oh and before I forget, seeing as how you like numbers:

8 members alive tonight, 3 mafia (unless we lynch one of them today.) 2 already known town, so it comes down to a 3-3 chance of hitting a scum if you are the vig. pretty good odds in my book. Granted if we lynch maifa there is less reason to Nk. But I still find it odd you are so sure he wont Nk someone. I mean at least harbor the idea in your mind that he will choose to do his own thing and not listen to you. I'm not saying lynch him, but be ready for tomorrow to come and have 2 dead players is all.

[Korlash]

Why are you so concerned about not being the one to drop the L-1 vote? That indicates that you have concern about the ramifications of the lynch.

I do not feel the reasons I have given to be enough to put at L-1. If I wanted to do that I would at least want to name specific examples, quotes, reasons I am voting, etc. Right now I am merely trying to show him we have not forgotten him and he still needs to be active.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #31!

BAH! Previous votecount fixed again. New votecount for your convenience.

dybeck (3) - originality, AlyG, Korlash
Korlash (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, shaft.ed, Elias_the_Thief, Gemelli, vollkan

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 8

[vollkan]

define "stream of consciousness", "divorce yourself from Oman's actions.", and "unique style of posting."

"Stream of consciousness" - Difficult to define precisely. In mafia, it is usually used to describe a posting style which is very loose and subjective (like yours). It is not scummy, but it is confusing.

"divorce yourself from Oman's actions" - You said that you have no understanding of Oman and that we have nothing on you personally. In other words, you are trying to get a clean slate, rather than one marked by Oman's actions.

"unique style of posting" - You use "hmm" a lot and talk about your own understanding of things more than anything else. I guess, it's that your approach is a very subjective one whereas most people try to be as objective as possible.

We lynch town, Mafia NK's town, Orig kills town= 3 town dead. If you lynch Orig tomorrow it is game over. so obviously either you would rather lose then have a pretty good chance of killing a mafia, Or your a mafia trying to stop the vig from killing a mafia.

Yes, I would lynch Orig tomorrow. We have no confirmation of Orig's alignment. If he is town, he will not NK tonight. VigOrig needs the town to win to win himself, so he is not going to take a course of action which would cause a town loss.

Now take We lynch town, Mafia NK town, Orig kills mafia. Would you lynch him for that? i mean he took out a mafia. I find it hard to believe you would sacrifice two more townies just because he did something protown.

In that situation, we are in 4:2 LYLO. If Orig did not NK, we would be in 4:3 LYLO. It isn't worth the risk. A vig would not do it.

Now we come to we lynch mafia, Mafia NKs town, Orig NK's mafia. We just turned the tables on the mafia. Would you waste day three killing a known towny when there is only one mafia left?

BUT he is NOT a known townie! He could be SK. In that scenario, a no vig would make us 5:2 whereas a mafia vig would make it 5:1. If, however, he stuffed up, we are in LYLO. Again, it is not a risk that a sensible vig would take.

And what I meant with my bolded sentence is that your claim to "lynch if he NKs" seems to me a very anti-town thing, if you actually plan to follow it up. I could definitely see that as a mafia way to prevent a nk from a vig. Then again I can also see it as a towny thing to say, I just do not see a towny actually letting 5 townies die this late in the game.

The ball is entirely in Orig's court. You don't seem to get it:
If Orig vigs, his action is inherently anti-town because he is taking a MASSIVE risk which we really cannot afford. The only sure-fire deterrent to him, is to mandate his own lynching. I do not want to lynch Orig, but it is the only threat which will ensure he does nothing.

8 members alive tonight, 3 mafia (unless we lynch one of them today.) 2 already known town, so it comes down to a 3-3 chance of hitting a scum if you are the vig. pretty good odds in my book. Granted if we lynch maifa there is less reason to Nk. But I still find it odd you are so sure he wont Nk someone. I mean at least harbor the idea in your mind that he will choose to do his own thing and not listen to you. I'm not saying lynch him, but be ready for tomorrow to come and have 2 dead players is all.

Korlash, you are ignoring the fact that if Orig fails, we lose. That is an unacceptable risk, particularly when the odds are only 50-50 (which you seem to think is good).

I need to

see something

,

Vote: dybeck

[Korlash]

No no i am not missing the fact that if he misses we lose, I am merely saying that he may think it worth the risk and thus we cannot automatically assume he will not NK. I agree, that the Vig Nk is a big risk, and I can see exactly why we as town do not want it. (Again I state my personal views of use it or lose it on the vig note. My personal opinon is if we lynch a towny, no kill, if we lynch a mafia, kill!!!! *angry eyes!* but my personal feelings should take a side step for what is in towns best interest so I suppose I will agree with you and take a stand against a Vig kill. I said this only to help explain my obvious contradiction before when I said I would like the vig to kill, and then here I say I will stand against that. This game is special when it comes to my specific thinking and thus my thinking has to change for it... Perhpas that is not the best way to explain it... oh well I am tired...)

Also, I think it odd after my last statement you would just post a L-1 vote on dybeck without any stated reasons. Why do you feel Dybeck is worth a L-1 vote? And why did you bold "see something"?

[vollkan]

Also, I think it odd after my last statement you would just post a L-1 vote on dybeck without any stated reasons. Why do you feel Dybeck is worth a L-1 vote? And why did you bold "see something"?

Unvote

A very risky tactic, that has just succeeded.

Let me explain:

I do not feel the reasons I have given to be enough to put at L-1. If I wanted to do that I would at least want to name specific examples, quotes, reasons I am voting, etc. Right now I am merely trying to show him we have not forgotten him and he still needs to be active.

You said that you did not feel him being worth L-1.

So, I put him at L-1. If you really were being sincere, you would have unvoted, slapped a HoS on me and then proceeded to demand a full explanation.

Instead, you merely question me.

[vollkan]

I had to post that bit quickly, to get my vote down asap. Given the lurking, I figured it was safe, but I do not want to run any risks.

The fact is Korlash, you just tolerated dybeck being at L-1. That is important, since you just said that you did not want dybeck at L-1.

HoS: Korlash

my personal feelings should take a side step for what is in towns best interest

Your personal feelings should be in the town's best interest anyway....

[dybeck]

OK... I'm sorry that it's come to this. I tried to put in as clear terms as I could.

Originality is scum.

It should be enough for you that he was found with a rope in his hand, standing over the dead body of somebody who was clearly town. It appears that this is not the case, since I'm the one at L-1.

Therefore you should know that he was also the subject of my cop investigation last night, which turned him up guilty.

I'm glad I didn't claim earlier, though. We've learned a lot from today.

[vollkan]

OK... I'm sorry that it's come to this. I tried to put in as clear terms as I could.

Originality is scum.

It should be enough for you that he was found with a rope in his hand, standing over the dead body of somebody who was clearly town. It appears that this is not the case, since I'm the one at L-1.

Therefore you should know that he was also the subject of my cop investigation last night, which turned him up guilty.

I'm glad I didn't claim earlier, though. We've learned a lot from today.

First up, you are not at L-1. I unvoted you just 20 minutes after my "vote", which was just a trap for Korlash to see how sincere he was being about him not wanting you at L-1 (evidently, he was not very). Your claim was premature and unnecessary.

Now, more importantly:

Claimed Power Roles

dybeck
AlyG

Scum

Orig

Unknowns (likely 3 of whom are scum)

Elias_the_thief
Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne
volkann
shaft.ed

This means that we have a SK, obviously.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If we look at lynching Orig:

Thus, we must assume we are 5:3:1.

If Orig is SK, we lynch him and we go to 4:3 LYLO.

If Orig is mafia,
Lynch mafOrig = 5:2:1
Mafia NK makes it 4:2:1 in wcs
SKNK then makes it 3:2:1 in wcs.

In other words, in wcs, if we lynch Orig today we come up at 3:2:1 (if mafia) or 4:3 LYLO (if SK).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If we do not lynch Orig, things depend on whether he is mafia or SK. If mafia, the SK needs to take him out tonight to have a hope. If Orig is SK, then the mafia may try their luck and keep him alive to force us into a bad situation.

Assuming the latter, worser option:
Mislynch = 4:3:1
MafNK town = 3:3:1
Orig's SK NK = 2:3:1 or 3:2:1.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
All in all, I think it more likely that Orig is SK than mafia.
Reaons:
1) His strong desire to dissociate himself from the NK shows that he felt personally culpable. Mafia generally do not do that sort of thing
.
.
.
.
2) Strangling is very SK-ish, bludgeoning is very mafia-ish (I hate to refer to the MOs, but this strikes me as significant)

I don't mean this to be conclusive, and I assure you I will look at things again, but I am currently thinking Orig is SK.

I am not going to vote Orig until I think about this a bit more. If he is SK, we are going to be putting ourselves in LYLO if we lynch him.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Something else to consider:
The possibility that dybeck is the SK. SKdybeck knows that Orig is mafia and wants him gone. SKdybeck thought he was at L-1, panicked and claimed cop, using Orig's guilty lynch as hopeful proof of him being cop.

[Korlash]

Dude... I can see where your going with that... But it's a little one sided... You can't predict how I will play. No matter how many games you have been in, no matter how much you have played this game, there is no way you can chalk up how others play this game.

To be honest with you the fact that it was your vote to put him at L-1 i kinda figured it would only be on him like an hour at the most. You post even more then I do, and you come up with some pretty iffy "traps" in my opinion. Now, if you had provided any sorta viable reasoning for your vote on him I would have unvoted. I wouldn't have gave you a FoS or anything, but I wouldn't keep my vote on someone that close to a lynch without my own reasons.

In closing I think your trap needs a bit of work. I can see the flaws in it as it can just as easily catch both the type of person you were looking for and the type you weren't.

besides there is no way anyone would have hammered him after that. I mean vote dybeck, vote dybeck, hammer dybeck just screams scum in my opinion. And no one is that stupid. So while you may think this trap of yours worked, (which is a sense it did, yet it still feels kinda lacking) I can hardly say it implies what your saying it does.

[vollkan]

You can't predict how I will play. No matter how many games you have been in, no matter how much you have played this game, there is no way you can chalk up how others play this game.

This is completely true and I am judging you by my own standards in this regard, which is why I need comment from other people to tell me whether I am being too harsh here.

I would argue, though, that townies would react with a significant degree of alarm to someone randomly throwing a L-1 vote.

To be honest with you the fact that it was your vote to put him at L-1 i kinda figured it would only be on him like an hour at the most.

Interesting. You figured I would not do something anti-town.

You post even more then I do, and you come up with some pretty iffy "traps" in my opinion.

This trap was never meant to be an Obv scum catcher, I was merely interested to see how you would react.

Now, if you had provided any sorta viable reasoning for your vote on him I would have unvoted. I wouldn't have gave you a FoS or anything, but I wouldn't keep my vote on someone that close to a lynch without my own reasons.

Very strange reasoning here.

You were happy to keep your vote on him when I did not explain myself, but you say you would not do so if I did explain myself.

The obvious difference is that if I explained myself I would look more serious, however, I don't see why that difference should alter your own actions. There is still as much chance of someone hammering if I am serious as if I am doing it for other reasons.

More importantly, you

asked

me for my reasons that I felt dybeck was worth a L-1 vote. In other words, at the time you thought my vote was a serious one, which goes entirely against what you are saying now.

besides there is no way anyone would have hammered him after that. I mean vote dybeck, vote dybeck, hammer dybeck just screams scum in my opinion. And no one is that stupid. So while you may think this trap of yours worked, (which is a sense it did, yet it still feels kinda lacking) I can hardly say it implies what your saying it does.

Oh for sure, a hammerer would be obv scum. I don't see why this is relevant here though. You are talking about things happening quickly and ignoring a more prolonged hammer.

[shaft.ed]

And this is exactly why we made all of those posts with the numbers you seem allergic to. If vollkan has already covered this below (haven't read further) I don't care because this needs to be absofreakinglutely clear.

If this comes off as abrasive I'm sorry, but we have both expressed an interest in scum hunting (yes I'm using that line again) and the NK actions of orig have already taken weeks off of this game. I hope this post will be enough to straighten things out.

We lynch town, Mafia NK's town, Orig kills town= 3 town dead. If you lynch Orig tomorrow it is game over.

No we don't get to lynch orig tommorow because we are end gamed, the town has lost. But yeah at least orig got some kicks using his night power on his way to destroying the town.

Now we come to we lynch mafia, Mafia NKs town, Orig NK's mafia. We just turned the tables on the mafia. Would you waste day three killing a known towny when there is only one mafia left?

And the odds of orig hitting mafia in that scenario are going to be 2/6, given his N1 choice, I wouldn't like those odds. Further, even if he NKs mafia we still haven't ruled out SK. NK'ing mafia would be huger for a SK.

Lastly, if we do lynch mafia, they Nk town, and Orig nks town. Then we are

not totally in LYLO I think... maybe not...

Point is, we would not want to waste our possibly last lynch killing a "known" towny right? So I do not see how threatening to lynch him for a Nk is suppose to keep him from NKing... And that is why I am considering the possibility he may NK someone.

How are you "not totally in LYLO." You either are or you aren't. And in that scenario we are. Once again we played with numbers so much for a reason. To determine that the risk of a vig kill are far greater than any possible benefits. Simple breakdown here:

Lynch Town + MisVig =

LOSS

Lynch Mafia + MisVig = LYLO (totally even)

And what I meant with my bolded sentence is that your claim to "lynch if he NKs" seems to me a very anti-town thing, if you actually plan to follow it up.

I could definitely see that as a mafia way to prevent a nk from a vig.

Then again I can also see it as a towny thing to say, I just do not see a towny actually letting 5 townies die this late in the game.

It could also be seen as a town way to prevent a nk from a vig. Most of the town has agreed with this point. If anyone has new objections and reasons please bring them to the fore so that noone is confused as to what is going on.

8 members alive tonight, 3 mafia (unless we lynch one of them today.) 2 already known town, so it comes down to a 3-3 chance of hitting a scum

if you are the vig

. pretty good odds in my book. Granted if we lynch maifa there is less reason to Nk. But I still find it odd you are so sure he wont Nk someone. I mean at least harbor the idea in your mind that he will choose to do his own thing and not

listen to you

. I'm not saying lynch him, but be ready for tomorrow to come and have 2 dead players is all.

I have to say I'm very surprised that you seem so certain that Orig is a vig. You're assumption is quite obvious throughout this post.
I also have a problem with the "listen to you." This may be nit-picky, but in this back and forth you make it seem as though vollkan is somehow single-handedly controlling orig's NK actions. In fact, prior vollkan was lobbying the hardest to maintain orig's possibility of NK'ing. I don't want to speak for the town, but it's quite obvious we have all chosen to prevent an extra NK tonight.

Finally, let's not forget that by getting a possible anti-town killing role not to kill tonight, that in and of itself is a benefit to the town.

[originality]

Alright, computer access is 100% again, and in good timing too. Right now its only my word against dybeck. So I hope the real cop counterclaims soon. And if there is no real cop, you guys have to remember that we already have one investigative role: AlyG. The tracker. Sort of unlikely having a cop and a tracker, wouldn't you say?

That's all I have, really. I don't know what else to say. I guess I could be a miller, but I don't know how likely that is in a mini game.

[shaft.ed]

You can't predict how I will play. No matter how many games you have been in, no matter how much you have played this game, there is no way you can chalk up how others play this game.

This is completely true and I am judging you by my own standards in this regard, which is why I need comment from other people to tell me whether I am being too harsh here.

You are being too harsh. He obviously questioned your actions. This to me can be equivilant of

AnbodypartoS

for certain players.

vollkan I also find it odd that as soon as dybeck claims, you seem to have no issue with it, no questions for him and jump straight into SK mathematics.

@dybeck, I find your claim to be weak and self serving. Why did you not start out the day against orig and only bring him up when AlyG mentioned his clearly verified investigation results? Seriously, you spent the first RL week of this day without even uttering the word originality. I'd like an explanation of this.

[Gemelli]

Whew, what a difference a page makes

Regarding Dybeck's cop claim, I had an inkling that he might hold this role way back in post 686.

If you look at Dybeck's D2 posts, you see a few things that jump out:

* In post 433, he states that "the reason originality claimed vig is because he knows he'd be counterclaimed if he claimed cop."

* He also has quite a few posts where he describes his origScum conviction as "100% certain." I didn't see any rationale for someone making such statements unless they have received special information.

I think we can all agree that posting "100%"-type comments without providing ironclad evidence to back them up looks scummy. But doing a reread of Dybeck's D2 content does (at least at first glance) seem that he is posting consistently with his claimed role and N1 information. I'm not sure how I would post if I had special information about a player that I couldn't share without giving away my power role, but I can reconcile Dybeck's posts with that perspective.

This is a very long way of saying that I don't see the claim as being a "panicked" reaction; the claim is either true or has been breadcrumbed extensively.

OK. So we have three power-role claims to look at:

Claims

Originality: claimed Vig
AlyG: claimed Tracker
Dybeck: claimed Cop

OK, let's do some scenario analysis.

Occam's Razor suggests that Dybeck's and Orginality's claims are mutually exclusive, barring the possibility of a Paranoid Cop role.

Tracker and Cop seem like roles that could potentially coexist in a game with an SK, but lacking experience with the game, it's hard for me to comment on how likely this is.

For reference purposes, originality first makes his vig claim in post 428. I would recommend that all of you reread a few pages starting with that claim post. I'm in the middle of a re-read, keeping our latest claim info in mind, and it's really turning some of my preconceptions upside down. Reading some of our players' earlier posts, in light of their current positions, has been eye-opening.

My current hypothesis is that originality is, in fact, the SK. I think that the odds of him being scum are certainly higher in light of this new information than they were before.

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point. I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point.

originality: I have never heard of a miller vig. I would call that situation "wildly unlikely."

shaft.ed: I'm not familiar with the term "AnbodypartoS" ... can you explain it?

More later; must take care of the day job.