Open 52 - Texas Justice Mafia (Game Over!), before 523

[Elmo]

Quickly: Kill claim makes sense. Not sure why it has to be night 1. I'll do it if everyone else will. Same as JDodges plan, I vote no but if we get a majority that say yes I'll go for it. But I'd still like it randomised and some analysis of our actual winning odds before I sign up. I can randomise it with dice tags if anyone cares about boring work.

[Oman]

No, a kill claim doesn't work 100%, so it doesn't stand alone (mostly because 60% of people who kill die). We need analysis too.

[IH]

Can we lynch Elmo or Schism yet?

[Sammich]

Why are we talking about night when we haven't even lynched scum yet?

[UltimaAvalon]

Fine, I'm just not gonna vote at all then. Have fun killing people

[PJ.]

Because this game is a very strange one sammich. It's one where night is much easier to win in then day.Mafia gets one kill, town gets 8 if we lynch town, 9 if we no lynch or hit mafia.

[PJ.]

EBWOP: 3 scum and 9 vig shots so that means 33.3 percent of the shots have to be correct. 25% of the game is scum. If we randomize it via random.org or something the odds will less tampered since Mod(no offense) could have put the mafia all in a row on the player list. If we follow IH's "shoot down" play if mafia is lined up we lose.

Oh by the way..if we lynch town today we would need 40%(rounded) of our shots to hit. The odds are better if all townies are alive. Oh and if we lynch mafia we would only need 20%(rounded) of our shots to hit.

If I knew better math I would do the odds for 9 bullets hitting a specific 3 people out of twelve but I believe it is around 70%. if we only have 8 town it's around 50. If we have 9 town and 2 scum the chances are like 80%. The numbers in this paragraph are estimates. All numbers that are not in this paragraph are correct and if it is rounded it was within 1 or 2 of the nearest ten.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Official Vote Count!

2 > Elmo > IH, Oman
2 > Sammich > JDodge, somestrangeflea,
1 > Gorgon > Elmo
1 >Jdodge > Gorgon
1 > IH > distad
1 >somestrangeflea > You Give Love A Bad Name,
1 >distad > Sammich,
1 > Oman > Panzerjager

0 > schismatized >
0 > UltimaAvalon
0 > Panzerjager >
) > You Give Love A Bad Name

Not Voting > UltimaAvalon, schismatized.

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

[UltimaAvalon]

Just shooting the guy next to you on the list is a terrible horrible no good very bad idea.

Don't do it

In fact, dont even bring it up again.

It is a worse play than No Lynch in C9

[Gorgon]

Oooh, the pound signs are not mandatory. Excellent.

UA, can you clarify a bit why you think this is a horrible idea?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Oooh, the pound signs are not mandatory. Excellent.

They're not manditory, I guess, but if there are errors in any vote counts, I'm blaming all of you.

[You Give Love A Bad Name]

Let's lynch Elmo.

UNVOTE

VOTE: ELMO

[Sammich]

I agree w/ UA with shooting the person below you.
That's a good way to murder 5000000 towns in one night.
Anyway.
I also just realized my 2 votes are random.

[UltimaAvalon]

Because its 50/50 whether it will work. If it just so happens that there are two scums next to each other on the list. Town loses. If it just so happens that no scum is next to another on the list, Town wins.

[schismatized]

Because its 50/50 whether it will work. If it just so happens that there are two scums next to each other on the list. Town loses. If it just so happens that no scum is next to another on the list, Town wins.

Let the record state that Jdodge and UA are next to eachother on the list.

[JDodge]

Because its 50/50 whether it will work. If it just so happens that there are two scums next to each other on the list. Town loses. If it just so happens that no scum is next to another on the list, Town wins.

Let the record state that Jdodge and UA are next to eachother on the list.

And you are above UA

MAYBE EVERYONE IS SCUM BECAUSE SOMEONE IS BEING REALISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCES OF SOMETHING WORKING

GASP

[Sammich]

Let the record state that Jdodge and UA are next to eachother on the list.

THIS GAME IS A FUCKING TEAM ASSHAT CONSPIRACY!!!!!!!onepluselevan!!!!!!

[schismatized]

Let the record state that Jdodge and UA are next to eachother on the list.

THIS GAME IS A FUCKING TEAM ASSHAT CONSPIRACY!!!!!!!onepluselevan!!!!!!

one plus eleven.

[UltimaAvalon]

And JDodge has....what to do with how extremely stupid is to shoot someone based on where they are on the list as opposed to scummieness?

[PJ.]

It's not 50/50, I just told everyone the damn odds.

Unvote: Vote Ua

You completely distorted facts.

[Gorgon]

Let the record state that Jdodge and UA are next to eachother on the list.

And this proves what?

Because its 50/50 whether it will work. If it just so happens that there are two scums next to each other on the list. Town loses. If it just so happens that no scum is next to another on the list, Town wins.

Did you actually calculate the odds? Why 50/50?

[Sammich]

It's not 50/50, I just told everyone the damn odds. Unvote: Vote Ua You completely distorted facts.

I still don't like the plan you're proposing.
If that's the case, then we're looking at only ONE scum being killed tonight, and multiple town casualties, with the 50-50 odds. The scum aren't going to abide by that, anyway!

Vote Panzerjager

this is insane.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I will be mysteriously absent until Sunday evening, Pacific Time. Sorry.

[PJ.]

EBWOP: 3 scum and 9 vig shots so that means 33.3% of the shots have to be correct. 25% of the game is scum. If we randomize it via random.org or something the odds will less tampered since Mod(no offense) could have put the mafia all in a row on the player list. If we follow IH's "shoot down" play if mafia is lined up we lose.

Oh by the way..if we lynch town today we would need 40%(rounded) of our shots to hit. The odds are better if all townies are alive. Oh and if we lynch mafia we would only need 20%(rounded) of our shots to hit.

If I knew better math I would do the odds for 9 bullets hitting a specific 3 people out of twelve but I believe it is around 70%. if we only have 8 town it's around 50. If we have 9 town and 2 scum the chances are like 80%. The numbers in this paragraph are estimates. All numbers that are not in this paragraph are correct and if it is rounded it was within 1 or 2 of the nearest ten.

Did anyone fucking read this post?

[UltimaAvalon]

Its 50/50 because it either works, or it doesnt. Either town wins, or town gets sodomized (Which is illegal in Texas). My statistics are based on practicality rather than math.