Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 2 - GAME OVER

[Ectomancer]

I'm wanting to hear the points Dahen mentioned, right now my BT case is on wobbly legs. I don't particularly want to move on yet, because if we do, I suspect BT will coast to the end. Just not ready to give up a free ride yet.

[Battle Mage]

If it's correct that BT went after BM before BM claimed that BT was his target, then that would speak against Ecto's theory. However, it's not impossible for a GF to act scummy on purpose to get an investigation and be cleared until town realizes that there is a GF, which could well be when it's too late for town.

There are several points in BT's post that I don't agree with. I'll state them in my next post.

pushing the GF argument on a confirmed innocent is in my experience, highly scummy. Vote stands.

[Ectomancer]

You could give him the opportunity to make his points before saying your vote stands at least. Don't forget that I started that push anyhow, not Dahen.
Speaking of Dahen, where is he?

[dahen]

I'm here. Sorry, I've had some hectic days.
I'll tell you what I was referring to. However, it's notable how BM jumps in with a comment about me without trying to make a case against me. This is his post where he voted me, the vote that he now confirms:

wtf?
endgame situation in Clue 3? You've GOT to be kidding me. Rolling Eyes

Unvote, Vote: Dahen

I'll split this post in two.
This post is only about soup.
Since I thought that there might be a second soup in the game, the information would be very important. Even if it was 60/40 odds of poison vs. protection, I'd say eat it, since in the case of protection, we get two protects and in the case of poison we would get one death. 40*2 > 60*1.

Of course you can see it in other ways, even though I will think it is scummy to prefer to keep town in the dark in order to possibly avoid poison. I can understand a cop not taking the risk, but a townie definately should.

I find it odd that you are retroactively trying to hold that my position in regards to the soup was somehow scummy when you held effectively the exact same position at the time.

I interpreted this at first as if BT meant that town in general hold his position, which I found completely false. The only other person in favor of pitching the soup seemed to be Ectomancer. I then realized that "you" in BT's post referred to Ecto, so I'll trash the part I was about to submit about this speaking against BT.

This is a good point. Ecto, you realize that you have made a complete turn-around regarding the soup, don't you? This definately speaks against Ecto.

The soup argument says that Ecto, BT and MBL were scummy. Let's see if BM thinks I'm scummy now for mentioning MBL here since he was unlynchable and therefore more likely pro-town.

[dahen]

This is my main point towards BT's post (BM: This does not mean we should all wagon BT now):

It would make no sense for me to attack a claimed Cop in the game if I was scum and investigative immune.

As a GF, I would definately try to get the cop's attention in order to get an investigation of myself. This means A) false information to the town, B) lack of true information to the town. The GF is NOT more important generally than a goon. The ONLY advantage the GF has over goons is the ability to get away with an investigation. As soon as the cop dies, the extra importance of the GF is gone.

I don't know what TCS was thinking. However, claiming your scum partner's rolename is a bit telegraphing, even for TCS.

Sorry for not understanding the word "telegraphing" in this context, but I definitely can see reasons to try to create confusion as dying scum.

If I was a Godfather I certainly wouldn't have wanted to lynch BM until I knew for sure who the target was.

See my reasoning above. You would sure have reasons: 1) You would want BM dead. 2) You would want an investigation from him. It does not matter for BT-scum who was the target.

I was taking a big risk that his lynch would backfire and get me lynched if I was scum, a risk I would absolutely have no reason to take as an investigative immune mafioso.

If we lynched him and there are no more cops, your immunity means nothing. Sure, you would be at risk but you would have protected your goon (assuming there is one). Also, "risk" implies a chance of actually pulling it off and staying alive.

This might be swayed by the crazy nature of Clue 3, but I just don't think we have 2 2-person mafias in the game

Well, I don't think we have that because it's uncommon, but I think it's possible and I don't understand why Clue 3 in particular would speak against it.

If that is the case, WHY THE HELL WOULD TCS SET THE GF UP FOR THE HAMMER AND NOT THE OTHER PLAYER? He had to have known that the possibility of his partner hammering could give him some heat. If so, he'd be dumb not to "set-up" the lynch with the lesser valued player.

You say that he should have know it generated some heat. I don't agree. I think that IF he did this, he did it because town would be more inclined to believe the poor guy that was almost set-up by the mafia by the claim. But assume that you are correct and that it would generate heat, then BT would be a very good target for an investigation. This investigation would be beneficial to scum if BT is a GF or at least OK if BT is town. However, it would be horrible if BT is goon.

Lastly, TCS would have been taking an enormous risk that I wouldn't hammer him

Why is this a risk? If you would choose not to hammer him, then you would do so because you would think it's beneficial to scum. Why is that a risk from TCS' stanpoint?

These are my points against BT's reasoning.
My strategy is to find everything that is not right and then compare what fits together in the best way combined which is most likely from the setup.

Next, I will look at Ecto's soup-turnaround and the circumstances of his quick vote at the start of this day. I will also try to see where I end up if I assume TCS thought he would stay alive but didn't want to claim "The Cop" (i.e. setup speculation [yes, I like it]).

[Ectomancer]

This is a good point. Ecto, you realize that you have made a complete turn-around regarding the soup, don't you? This definately speaks against Ecto.

The soup argument says that Ecto, BT and MBL were scummy. Let's see if BM thinks I'm scummy now for mentioning MBL here since he was unlynchable and therefore more likely pro-town.

No, I did not do a complete turnaround. As I stated when I brought it up again, you made an argument back then that I could not refute. In other words, I lost the argument. Meaning that your assessment that scum would be more likely to pitch the soup had some validity to it. Unless you never argue a point in order to sway others to your position, I'm not certain why my acknowledgement that you had won the point would be considered scummy.

[Mastermind of Sin]

*bump* keep up the activity, guys.

[DragonsofSummer]

What does everybody think about a mass claim?

[Battle Mage]

bad idea.

[DragonsofSummer]

Well at least someone answered me... I'm not really supporting a mass claim either, I just want discussion to start back up...

[Haschel Cedricson]

Holy fuck, I forgot about this game. I'm going out of town until Sunday night, but I promise that I'll post something good on Sunday or Monday.

You can use LAL on me if I don't.

[Battle Mage]

Holy fuck, I forgot about this game. I'm going out of town until Sunday night, but I promise that I'll post something good on Sunday or Monday.

You can use LAL on me if I don't.

lol are you copying and pasting this into every one of your games?

[Haschel Cedricson]

lol are you copying and pasting this into every one of your games?

Just the Clue ones. And this was the only one I actually forgot about; Clue 1 was supposed to not have the first sentence.

Anyhoo, first off, I posted this a while back about the idea of the supposed governor who saved MBL:

Now, what are the advantages of having that person claim and explain themselves? Obviously this person knew something the rest of the town didn't. If they claimed, then we might be able to make a more informed lynch today. If they don't, then we keep the scum from knowing too much about the powerroles.

Thoughts?

Nobody answered me, presumably because the BT=Godfather? debate started. I'd like to ask this again.

Secondly, I understand the case against BT, but I think that it starts with a conclusion and then finds evidence to fit. Other than the hammer, BT hasn't been playing particularly scummy, and I'm willing to trust Occam's Razor here. I forget who said it above, but while ANY of the factors resulting in BT being the godfather COULD be true, the odds of ALL of them being true are pretty poor.

My primary suspects after this reread are Ancalagon, al, and ectomancer

I'd say exactly one scum here.

I saw this on the reread. I agree with the statement, and since Ecto is pushing fairly hard on the closest thing we have to a confirmed innocent, I will

Accuse: Ectomancer

[BillyTwilight]

This is my main point towards BT's post (BM: This does not mean we should all wagon BT now):

It would make no sense for me to attack a claimed Cop in the game if I was scum and investigative immune.

As a GF, I would definately try to get the cop's attention in order to get an investigation of myself. This means A) false information to the town, B) lack of true information to the town. The GF is NOT more important generally than a goon. The ONLY advantage the GF has over goons is the ability to get away with an investigation. As soon as the cop dies, the extra importance of the GF is gone.

Yes, exactly... and thus, the advantage of the Godfather is also gone. As a GF you want to get investigated, but you also want to avoid doing things that are going to get you lynched. You can't make it obvious that you want an investigation of yourself. Attempting to lead a lynch against a claimed cop seems clearly to fall into that category.

I don't know what TCS was thinking. However, claiming your scum partner's rolename is a bit telegraphing, even for TCS.

Sorry for not understanding the word "telegraphing" in this context, but I definitely can see reasons to try to create confusion as dying scum.

Telegraphing = making a really obvious play that should be considered bad play. Like a quaterback in American football staring at a receiver for an entire play and then throwing the ball too him, where it's easy for the defense to see that he is going to make that pass and then they have a chance at breaking the play up or forcing a turnover.

If I was a Godfather I certainly wouldn't have wanted to lynch BM until I knew for sure who the target was.

See my reasoning above. You would sure have reasons: 1) You would want BM dead. 2) You would want an investigation from him. It does not matter for BT-scum who was the target.

This contradicts itself. I would want him dead... but I would want him to investigate me too. I can't have it both ways. And it

does

matter. First, BM had already claimed a non-guilty investigation. I would therefore (as a GF) not worry about him exposing any partners I might have, and I certainly wouldn't have to worry about myself. I'd much rather at this point wait for him to reveal his investigation. Pushing him for a lynch is not a good way to do that; the main drawback is I have to answer for trying to lynch a claimed cop, generally suspicious play for scum. I'd play it a little cooler and wait till later in the day to see if we could convince BM to give over his investigation. Perhaps I would wait till it looked like a deadline was looming or even a lynch was about to happen, then discreetly ask for BM to go ahead and reveal his innocent so that we would know the innocent player before going into the night phase where BM might die and his investigation results would die with him.

I was taking a big risk that his lynch would backfire and get me lynched if I was scum, a risk I would absolutely have no reason to take as an investigative immune mafioso.

If we lynched him and there are no more cops, your immunity means nothing. Sure, you would be at risk but you would have protected your goon (assuming there is one). Also, "risk" implies a chance of actually pulling it off and staying alive.

I don't see how this contradicts my point. Yes, I'd be protecting my goon, but suppose we

had

lynched BM, then later lynched a goon who had some ties to me. I'd have to defend myself for attacking a claimed cop and getting him lynched, which is something that is particularly difficult to do as scum, and a risk I simply didn't need to take, especially considering anyone attacking me could play the GF card against me.

This might be swayed by the crazy nature of Clue 3, but I just don't think we have 2 2-person mafias in the game

Well, I don't think we have that because it's uncommon, but I think it's possible and I don't understand why Clue 3 in particular would speak against it.

My point is that I don't really think MoS would run two of the three games with a pretty crazy setup. That's outguessing the mod to an extent, but it's my opinion. Not to mention I described both possible setups and refuted BT=scum for both setups.

If that is the case, WHY THE HELL WOULD TCS SET THE GF UP FOR THE HAMMER AND NOT THE OTHER PLAYER? He had to have known that the possibility of his partner hammering could give him some heat. If so, he'd be dumb not to "set-up" the lynch with the lesser valued player.

You say that he should have know it generated some heat. I don't agree. I think that IF he did this, he did it because town would be more inclined to believe the poor guy that was almost set-up by the mafia by the claim. But assume that you are correct and that it would generate heat, then BT would be a very good target for an investigation. This investigation would be beneficial to scum if BT is a GF or at least OK if BT is town. However, it would be horrible if BT is goon.

I'll grant you this possibility. So, the four choices for TCS:

A.) Intentionally set up the GF, the pros are that the GF is investigative immune, the cons are that the GF would be highly suspicious from that point on in the game. If his partner doesn't hammer then possible multikill for town later (see below).

B.) Intentionally set up the goon, who if investigated would immediately be lynched by the town and if not investigated would be highly suspicious from that point on in the game. If his partner doesn't hammer then possible multikill for town later (see below).

C.) Fake claim a rolename. If someone in the town has that role then suffer a hammer (which might be offset by the fact that he was likely to be lynched anyway) but irrevocably tie that player to himself and cause confusion for the town for the rest of the game, maybe resulting in a mislynch down the line somewhere. If no one has that rolename then possibly talk himself out of a lynch which might have occurred anyway.

D.) Claim his real rolename. Might talk himself out of a lynch.

Of the four I find case "C" to be the

best

play for scum. There is really only one advantage for A and B, being that it might make his partner look more confirmed. But in a game where players are naturally suspicious of other players bussing or trying to make their partners look better, and especially in this case, where the closed nature and flavor of the game make that suspicion even larger due to the way the roles have worked in the three games, I think one can discount this play as making their partner look more confirmed. Furthermore, I think TCS is more than experienced enough to come to that realization. Also, if TCS felt he was going to be lynched then there is absolutely no drawback for C. Since you are arguing that TCS was asking for a lynch from his partner (A and B), then by your reasoning you have to admit that TCS thought he was going to be lynched. In that case, there are distinct disadvantages for points A and B, and no drawbacks for point C. Again, C is the

best

play for scum, given that situation.

Lastly, TCS would have been taking an enormous risk that I wouldn't hammer him

Why is this a risk? If you would choose not to hammer him, then you would do so because you would think it's beneficial to scum. Why is that a risk from TCS' stanpoint?

MULTIKILL. If he made that play and his partner failed to hammer and he managed to avoid a lynch, then if his partner EVER died, or had their role revealed in any way, TCS would immediately go down in flames as well. Scum simply cannot afford that. At most we are dealing with a three person scumgroup. If TCS made that play and his partner didn't hammer then, he'd be taking an enormous risk that if at any point in the game his partner was lynched, night killed, or otherwise role revealed, he would die as well, wiping out 2/3rd's of his chance to win (and in the case that you are making, taking the godfather, probably the most important member of the group with him).

These are my points against BT's reasoning.
My strategy is to find everything that is not right and then compare what fits together in the best way combined which is most likely from the setup.

Next, I will look at Ecto's soup-turnaround and the circumstances of his quick vote at the start of this day. I will also try to see where I end up if I assume TCS thought he would stay alive but didn't want to claim "The Cop" (i.e. setup speculation [yes, I like it]).

Like to hear more on this dahen. Right now I am not particularly suspicious of Ecto, and people pushing this soup business seems scummy to me.

[Ectomancer]

unaccuse

Let's hear from Ectomancer! Name claiming this early is indeed baaaaaad...

suspect ectomancer

Who said I claimed?

unaccuse, accuse chaotic_diablo

for jumping on a joke. Mrs. White in the

panty

with a

polish sausage

. Hello?

Phbbt, my mistake. I caught the joke, but thought it was quite possible that you would actually give us your real role name and claim it to be a joke so that we wouldn't believe you. I got this mostly because we were talking about Mrs Peacock then all of a sudden a Mrs White came out. I didn't catch al_ko's post.

FYI, I am Mrs. White. I didn't like how quickly c_d jumped on what was a softclaim of sorts. I still don't see what his point was back then. If you are town and suspect someone is couching information in the guise of a joke, why dont you file it away for future reference? Why make such a big deal of it?
I'm also not impressed by your defense of Billy. I noticed that you really didnt come to life until a fairly easily deflected case was given, and then you were ALL over it. Seriously, getting an investigated innocent lynched is tough to do. My wild accusation now is that c_d is choosing an easy topic to defend to get all active in this game with an opportunity to look pro-town.

Go back and re-read c_d please. It's only 1 page, so shouldn't take long.

unvote, vote chaotic_diablo

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP: Good post Billy.

[dahen]

BT, thanks for a well-written post.
I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but I still end up with some WIFOM.
First, you say that you would not behave as you did if you were GF. My strategy as scum is normally more towards trying to play exactly the way I do as a townie.
Then, you also say that TCS would not do A or B because it would lead to heat on the counter-claiming player and that C is good partly because it would also generate heat on the counter-claiming player.

I would say that this needs for somebody like Ecto to step in with a case for the heat to be generated, and it took quite a while. But I must agree that some light is cast on the player and that it is a gamble. Did the cop investigate you after the hammer? In that case TCS could in case C force an innocent investigation in C, which would make it more likely than D.

I still haven't checked on the timing compared to the name claims in Clue 3. And neither have I done much else in my mafia games lately. But I'll be back with more.

[chaotic_diablo]

unaccuse

Let's hear from Ectomancer! Name claiming this early is indeed baaaaaad...

suspect ectomancer

Who said I claimed?

unaccuse, accuse chaotic_diablo

for jumping on a joke. Mrs. White in the

panty

with a

polish sausage

. Hello?

Phbbt, my mistake. I caught the joke, but thought it was quite possible that you would actually give us your real role name and claim it to be a joke so that we wouldn't believe you. I got this mostly because we were talking about Mrs Peacock then all of a sudden a Mrs White came out. I didn't catch al_ko's post.

FYI, I am Mrs. White. I didn't like how quickly c_d jumped on what was a softclaim of sorts. I still don't see what his point was back then. If you are town and suspect someone is couching information in the guise of a joke, why dont you file it away for future reference? Why make such a big deal of it?
I'm also not impressed by your defense of Billy. I noticed that you really didnt come to life until a fairly easily deflected case was given, and then you were ALL over it. Seriously, getting an investigated innocent lynched is tough to do. My wild accusation now is that c_d is choosing an easy topic to defend to get all active in this game with an opportunity to look pro-town.

Go back and re-read c_d please. It's only 1 page, so shouldn't take long.

unvote, vote chaotic_diablo

You are not guranteed town. When you

nameclaimed

, al_ko immediately jumped on. I had thought that al_ko also caught your mistake and knew something, so I jumped on as well. As I said, I missed al_ko's previous post and the "whole" joke.

I'm bothered by the fact that I was correct when I accused you of nameclaiming that early. If you were town, why the hell would you need to disguise yourself in a form of a joke in the first place?

If you were to create an easily deflectable argument then pin someone for attacking it, wouldn't that just mean you were trying to fabricate a lynch and set someone up? You're just trying to grasp straws just to see which method works. Attacking an easy argument doesn't mean I'm scum. It means your argument is crap and easily argued.

[Ectomancer]

I never said I was guaranteed town, what I did was name claim with no doubt or joke involved this time.

I do things to get reactions. You reacted to my joke in a manner that makes me wonder why you would do that if you were town. It was you who said anything about that "joke" being a name claim at all. Neither I, nor anyone else had done so.

You miss my point I suppose on the 2nd half of my case, which is it took an easy argument to draw you out, and you chose one that let you take an easy "pro-town" approach to the question. You did it despite the case being directed towards BT. It was his response that I was looking for. But you chose to take advantage of that moment to attribute some pro-town statements to yourself.

Everyone else can look at your participation this game. It stands out.

HC, it might be worth looking into to see if someone did save him. I also think it worth noting that C-D's phrasing when talking about the mechanic gave me the impression that he was trying to lean us towards trying to lynch MBL again, since he is pushing the one shot prevent a lynch theory.

[chaotic_diablo]

I never said I was guaranteed town, what I did was name claim with no doubt or joke involved this time.

I do things to get reactions. You reacted to my joke in a manner that makes me wonder why you would do that if you were town. It was you who said anything about that "joke" being a name claim at all. Neither I, nor anyone else had done so.

I have already explained why I interpreted your post as a nameclaim. I explained it when it happened and when you asked for it now. If you took the time to actually read my post you would find an argument to counter my explanation rather than repeating your points over and over again when they have already been argued. I also remember that you let me off because the town motivation was to "stir up a lagging game."

CD is just trying to stir up a lagging game.

unvote, vote: al_kohaulec

for attacking CD instead of helping him put pressure on me.

Just for your sake, I'll explain it again. At the time, Jack had stated that he was Mrs Peacock. I missed al_ko's post mentioning Mrs White and then DOS stated he wasn't Mrs Peacock. Since I missed al_ko's post on Mrs White, I thought it was strange that You would suddenly come up and say you had Mrs White. al_ko voted for you and I thought al_ko also found that particular event strange so I added my vote as well. As it turned out, I completely missed out on the most important detail and jumped to the wrong conclusion. Despite having missed the detail, I now know I was actually right even though I reached the conclusion the wrong way.

You miss my point I suppose in the 2nd half of my case, which is it took an easy argument to draw you out, and you chose one that let you take an easy "pro-town" approach to the question. You did it despite the case being directed towards BT. It was his response that I was looking for. But you chose to take advantage of that moment to attribute some pro-town statements to yourself.

That's because I'm protown and lazy, not scum and manipulative. I also argued only one part of your argument since it wasn't BT's responsibility. I'm not inclined to defend others for their own individual actions. However, you drew a conclusion that BT was scum based on TCS's actions. BT had indirect involvement in that single point, therefore it was up for grabs to anyone. However, your second point is something I consider best to leave to BT since BT's involvement was direct. I believe the action was that BT attempted to lynch a claimed cop. My choice to argue which points it mostly based on how much effort it takes and whether arguing is actually worth the effort. It isn't a method to look more protown, I'm just lazy and not up to it at that moment. If you read back to the parts that I said I would reread, I added the "when I felt like it" to convey the fact that I was unwilling to do so due to laziness.

HC, it might be worth looking into to see if someone did save him. I also think it worth noting that C-D's phrasing when talking about the mechanic gave me the impression that he was trying to lean us towards trying to lynch MBL again, since he is pushing the one shot prevent a lynch theory.

Lynch MBL again? Not my intention. Look in the other clue games and make the connection. Think "Mr Boddy." That is my idea.

[Ectomancer]

Heheh, I can buy laziness. That's been true for 90% of us playing in these 3 Clue games.

[DragonsofSummer]

Heheh, I can buy laziness. That's been true for 90% of us playing in these 3 Clue games.

QFT... I'm at a loss for what has happened in this game right now, and so when I get home from classes this evening I will do a full reread and post some thoughts.

[Ectomancer]

Ok, trash me for blatant game setup speculation here, but in trying to go back and refresh and look again at things, I noticed a few things. I watched the movie again about a month ago, and I noticed 2 things about this game and the other 2 as well.

MOS chose different dialogue to use at the beginning of each game. At first I thought it was random flavor, but I begin to wonder now. I re-read our intro scene tonight and it was the initial "killing" of Mr. Boddy. One significant version of that scene has Prof. Plum lie to everyone, telling them that Mr. Boddy was dead, when he really wasn't.
I tried to go back and see if anyone had claimed Prof Plum this game or not, but I dont have the time to continue tonight. I also believe I may have found a clue to verify 1, if not 2, name claims. FYI, this refers to in game clues, not trying to imply I have recieved any from the mod.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Do you need any prods/VC?

[DragonsofSummer]

Ugh... this week has turned out to be a heck of a lot more hectic than I expected it to be... I will try to get my reread in by Sunday... sorry everybody.