Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Ircher]

Ella hace todo

again?

De todo de todo de todo

Votecount 3.05

Dunnstral (L-2)

:

JFSF

, Jaack,

Creature

Creature(L-2)

Toolenduso,

xyzzy, Dunnstral

xyzzy

: Tyler

Not Voting

:

TheOtherFiction, Bins

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-02 17:20:00)

And we will never be alone again
Cuz it doesn't happen every day
Kinda counted on you being a friend
Can I give it up or give it away

Votecount 3.07

Xyzzy (L-1)

:

Bins

, Tyler, Toolenduso,

Dunnstral

Dunnstral (L-2)

:

JFSF

, Jaack,

Creature

Creature

xyzzy

Not Voting

:

TheOtherFiction

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-02 17:20:00)

Triste final para ti, triste final para mi
olvidarnos mejor será hoy

Votecount 3.09

Creature (L-1)

:

xyzzy, Dunnstral

, Toolenduso,

Bins

Dunnstral (L-2)

:

[JFSF]

, Jaack,

Creature

Xyzzy

: Tyler

Not Voting

:

TheOtherFiction

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-02 17:20:00)

Note: My condolences Jake.

This Votecount counts the vote by Tyler The Creator a couple posts down

Votecount 3.10

Creature (LYNCH)

:

xyzzy, Dunnstral,

Toolenduso,

Bins

Dunnstral (L-2)

: [JFSF], Jaack,

Creature

Xyzzy

: Tyler

Not Voting

: TheOtherFiction

With 9 alive, 5 have lynched

[Ircher]

Votecount 4.02

Jaack (L-2)

:

Dunnstral, xyzzy

xyzzy (L-2)

: Toolenduso, Tyler

Not Voting

:

TheOtherFiction, Bins

, Jaack

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-17 23:22:00)

Votecount 4.03

Jaack (L-1)

:

xyzzy, Dunnstral

, Tyler

xyzzy (L-3)

: Toolenduso

Not Voting

:

TheOtherFiction, Bins

, Jaack

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-17 23:22:00)

Votecount 4.04

Jaack (L-2)

:

xyzzy, Dunnstral

Not Voting

:

TheOtherFiction, Bins

, Jaack, Tyler, Toolenduso

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-17 23:22:00)

Votecount 4.05

Toolenduso

:

xyzzy

xyzzy

: Toolenduso,

Dunnstral

, Jaack,

bins

Not Voting

:

TheOtherFiction

, Tyler,

With 7 alive, 4 have lynched

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-17 23:22:00)

Due to recent events I will be toning down the flavor of this game.

Xyzzy has died though, they were a

vanilla townie

Night 1 starts now and ends in (expired on 2016-06-16 19:19:00)

[Ircher]

Some things:

1) For almost all of D4, the Jaack wagon was composed of conf town with both Dunn and Xy on it til the last VC where Dunn compromised on Xy
2) The fact Dun got nk'd is another tell-tale sign. Esp. since there's 2 other conf town.
3) Jaack never voting until the end of D4 where he seems to got on the Xyzzy wagon right before the lynch. I wonder why.....
4) Jack stayed put on the Dunn counterwagon to Creature D3. Granted, Jake was on the wagon too, but so was creature who was scum. Not to mention the wagon existed all of D3.
5) Jaack was on the D2 ML wagon.....

VOTE: Jaack

VCA imo points to Jaack, alongside last night's nk.

[Ircher]

@Bins
Vote Jaack with me.

[toolenduso]

A couple things, Ircher:

-The only claim to be aware of at this point is Bins, and you know hers.
-Jaack posted his Tyler stuff toward the end of the last day phase. Should be among the last few posts in his ISO.
-We've had two scum flip goon and Zulfy just confirmed that there's only one scum left, so the last is almost certainly some kind of PR, though we haven't really had anything happen with night actions to indicate what it might be. It won't be an encryptor because Zulfy said at the beginning of the game that scum have daychat.
-HA was pretty obvscum for many reasons by the time he was lynched. Even the people who hopped off his wagon after he claimed doc hopped back on later because he was so scummy.

Also, what was it about the Dunn night kill that points toward Jaack?

[toolenduso]

All right, so my thoughts after xyzzy flipped town.

I'm at the point now where I'm going to have to reassess some of the stuff I was using before to narrow down choices. Obviously I was wrong about one of my theories, because the fact that Creature was pushing Dunn along with Jaack made me think Jaack wasn't scum, and the fact that Keyser reacted to HA's doc claim by bussing him like crazy made me think that Tyler wasn't scum (because he kinda moved in the other direction after HA's claim). Interestingly, Jaack also took Tyler's approach after HA's claim -- but in a slightly different way. While Tyler was kind of assessing the situation, Jaack came in and said that doc claim is a standard for scum under pressure. In the same post, he votes for ira and reasons that we shouldn't be lynching a doc claim.

Between the two, I think Jaack looks worse, because it seems like he actually could have been trying to take Keyser's approach of bussing HA, but then hedged his bets a little more. Tyler's response to the whole thing...I mean, I can see scumminess in it, but parts of it also look like the kind of thing scum would be a little more conscious about. Like in #505 saying that he'll be looking at floof if HA flips scum. It's kind of blatantly setting up another lynch before the flip, I don't know if a player like Tyler would really do that.

Compared with that, I can see where Jaack's posts around the time could be more strategic.

Looking back over the rest of my notes on the two, I am remembering why I've been reading Tyler as town for so much of this game...after the floof set-up for example, he didn't follow through and push the slot. There have been a lot of small things, basically.

And conversely there have been a lot of small things with Jaack that have made him look worse. The vote on Robert at the very beginning of the game, for example. Or the time he voted zakk after arguing against a zakk lynch and gave the reasoning that it's better to be on a wagon. Tyler makes a good point about Jaack's reasoning for voting xyzzy.

Yeah. I am definitely leaning Jaack for last scum. No need to rush, though. I'm going camping this weekend but I'll hopefully still have some time to go back through some stuff that's happened a little more thoroughly.

[Bins]

I'm literally going to cry myself to sleep if I have to choose between Tool and Tyler.

[Ircher]

A couple things, Ircher:

-The only claim to be aware of at this point is Bins, and you know hers.
-Jaack posted his Tyler stuff toward the end of the last day phase. Should be among the last few posts in his ISO.
-We've had two scum flip goon and Zulfy just confirmed that there's only one scum left, so the last is almost certainly some kind of PR, though we haven't really had anything happen with night actions to indicate what it might be. It won't be an encryptor because Zulfy said at the beginning of the game that scum have daychat.
-HA was pretty obvscum for many reasons by the time he was lynched. Even the people who hopped off his wagon after he claimed doc hopped back on later because he was so scummy.

Also, what was it about the Dunn night kill that points toward Jaack?

No, the last one must be goon since I'm macho, Voyeurs are weak, the BG was like 1-Shot and macho cop really isn't a problem.

[Ircher]

As an fyi, basically all I did was VCA and look through some of Tyler, Bins, and Jaack's posts.

[Ircher]

In case xyzzy is town and I die tonight, you should lynch jaack then tool in that order

And here's the WIFOM statement for fhe nk.....

[toolenduso]

No, the last one must be goon since I'm macho, Voyeurs are weak, the BG was like 1-Shot and macho cop really isn't a problem.

Eh, maybe you're right. I'm pretty sure it'd be the first mini normal I saw where scum didn't have any PRs, but I guess it could happen. At any rate it probably doesn't matter since scum PRs don't appear to have affected the game at this point.

I mean I guess the only way it would matter is if scum had a godfather, and that's not likely. Especially now that Dunn is gone. Your slot is the only other one Jake got a result on, and there are other circumstances that make it very unlikely you're town.

[toolenduso]

*unlikely you're scum

[Ircher]

imma hammer then

Ok

For the record I'm positive that Bins is town.

I actually feel pretty good about tyler too, and was feeling good about tool

Think it's still in xyzzy/jaack

Yeah, I say we just sheep Dunn's reads, forget the WIFOM surround the NK, and trust the VCA and lynch Jaack.

@Bins
Can you please tell us all your results from each night?

Pedit: Look at it this way:

Mountainous 10:3 win rate for town is like low 20's.
Macho Cop is the only real PR town has, since Voyeur can only confirm a Cop's claim and the Bodyguard is severely weakened. The only thing that tilts this towards town favor really is the fact there are 4 PRs which scum basically have to nk.

Otherwise, the setup is basically 1x Cop + 9T versus 3Swhich is still tilted towards scum.

Scum definitely don't have a Godfather, probably not a RB'r, possibly a JK, and likely just another Goon.

[Ircher]

There's only 2 ways we lose: 1) We lynch the wrong one out of Tyler/Tool in LyLo (Jaack should be lynched today) or 2) Bins is lying about being a Voyeur. If I got Cop inno'd, claimed macho town, and no one else has a PR claim, then setup-wise, you can basically confirm me as town.

Bins is prob. town, but Voyeur is still a possible fakeclaim since we're likely up against 3 goons (the diff Voyeur makes is simply confirmable townies). So, I want to know all of Bins results, but we should consider Bins town too.

[Jaack]

Utility of a Tyler town flip would totally depend on how such a wagon developed since I'm the only one with interest in it right now

this line seems kinda fake because how often have you gotten anything fruitful from "wagon development" when there's probably 1 scum left jaack?

Basically what I would have looked for is how tool and xyzzy interacted with the hypothetical wagon.

The primary reason I talked myself into an xyzzy vote was the way they reacted to the tool push D4. Looked survivalistic and opportunistic to me. I was wrong, obviously, that it came to scum, but it looked strange.

@ircher - both Dunn and your slot were pretty much conftown yesterday, and both had me high on their scumlist

It's actually kind of annoying because I like nk analysis, but the n1 and n3 nks were super obvious so there's literally nothing to look for there.

N2 nk was surprising because I though Zach was relatively lynchable, but I guess scum didn't see him as particularly persuadable.

As for n4 - Dunn and tof had pretty similar opinions that scum was between xyzzy and I, and that in the event we were both town, then tool was slightly scummier than tyler.

Bins meanwhile was relatively open to any lynch of the unconfirmed, or at least, more open to a Tyler or tool lynch than dunn/tof.

So I get why bins is alive, but there's no telling why scum went for dunn over tof. So nk analysis has been pretty useless.

As far as who's scum between Tyler and tool, I was pretty sure that it was Tyler after xyzzy flipped, mainly because he seemed to be open to lynching any of tool/xyzzy/myself d4, but after thinking it through, I think I've swung back over to the toolscum side.

I think that tyler's push on tool yesterday would have been to risky for scum to try. If tyler were scum, he could have just ridden the inevitable lynched on xyzzy and myself into 3p lylo, where he would get pitted 1v1 versus tool.

Trying to lynch tool d4 was the hardest path tyler could have taken (I guess aside from a tof lynch or something dumb). Tool had also been mostly an ally up to that point, so it seems odd for scum to break that peace.

VOTE: toolenduso

But I can see I'm pretty dead today anyway, so this is mostly for posterity.

[Ircher]

Okay, to reiterate:

1) I'm confirmed town, no doubt about it. I got Cop inno'd (and unless someone else would like to claim PR, there's no way this setup has godfather) AND my predecessor claimed Macho Townie & I am reaffirming that's the case. So, again, unless someone else has a decent pr to counterclaim me (If you claim a weak pr like Fruit Vendor, then you're counterclaiming Bins, not me as there would need to be another strong pr to justify Jake receiving a Cop inno result on me.) Which, I don't think anyoe else is going to be foolish enough to counterclaim me as that's a death sentence. (And if your town and you decide to fakeclaim a counterclaim, you literally cost the game)
2) Bins is also probably confirmed townie. I could see this setup having a Voyeur as easily as I could see it without one. I will assume good faith for now and assume that Bins is town. If you have a minor role like Fruit Vendor, then again, you would be counterclaiming Bins and its basically a death sentence, so again, let's assume Bins is confirmed town too.
3) The VCA highly points towards Jaack as scum
4) The N4 Night kill also suggests Jaack as scum
5) Jaack is just playing the WIFOM card to try to escape a lynch.

Lynch Jaack and call this gg. I'm 93% certain Jaack is the final scum.

[Ircher]

Oh, and if I' m wriong, and town ML's tomorrow, welll, congrats scum --> You deserved it.

But, that's not happening. I am 98% sure we'll win this game; 93% sure we'll win it today.

[Jaack]

4) The N4 Night kill also suggests Jaack as scum

Why? Why would I specifically nk Dunn over your slot?

Also, if (when) I flip town, who should be lynched, Tyler or tool?

[Ircher]

1) It's all 1 huge WIFOM kill anyway
2) Both Dunn and my slot articulated scumreads on you, but you thought my slot would've been easier to manipulate.

If your town (which prob. isn't the case), then I'd prob. say Tool, but not definite there. Besides, I'm likely not going to be the one choosing anyway.

[Ircher]

this is like some serious fucking mindgames but i'm gonna go with the fact that

1) dunn was on point
2) i was really wrong so they want me in lylo
3) TOF is super wrong and they don't fear him
4) this is all WIFOM

Likely 1 and 4.

If all the town are wrong rn, and it's Tyler, then it wouldn't matter who is killed.

But Jaack is prob. scum who we should just QLynch before he slips his way out of a lynch.

[Jaack]

1) It's all 1 huge WIFOM kill anyway
2) Both Dunn and my slot articulated scumreads on you, but you thought my slot would've been easier to manipulate.

If your town (which prob. isn't the case), then I'd prob. say Tool, but not definite there. Besides, I'm likely not going to be the one choosing anyway.

Ehh, fair enough.

@Bins, tell me your thoughts on Tyler and tool, since it looks like you get to decide who wins this game (sorry)

[Bins]

I think in LYLO I'd vote Tyler over Tool.

[Tyler the Creator]

[Ircher]

Psst... Can we get this Day over with?

I mean, unless anyone has a convincing argument to differ, I think we're best off lynching Jaack today.

[Bins]

lmfao ircher is GF game is fucked