MINI 504- PEGBAM...GAME OVER!

[Karen]

10 players. one possible setup:
2 mafia
1 SK/vig
1 cop
1 doc
5 vanilla.

assuming this setup, we currently might have:
1 mafia
1 SK/vig
1 cop
1 doc
3 vanilla.

which, is not necessarily a lylo situation, given 1) the doctor could make a successful save, and/or 2) the SK/vig makes the wrong/right kill.

BUT, an incorrect lynch would setup a lylo nightphase, pending either 1) or 2).

so, assuming that
a) Scotmany12 is the cop;
b) we believe his investigation of Erg0;
c) my above guess at the setup is accurate,
d) we have an SK and not a vig (a vig wouldn't be

that

stupid, and there'd be huge balancing problems w/o an SK),

then either Oman or I is scum.

in our situation, it takes 4 votes to lynch, and since there are already 2 votes on me, any vote combo of the scum & vig would kill me, and force an unfriendly nightphase.

the fact that this hasn't happened yet, means that either:
i) one of the two remaning scum has already cast his vote,
ii) i am one of the remaining scum.

in scenario i), if we use my above reasoning of a) and b), then it cannot be Erg0, and must only be Oman.

i challenge the rest of you to read over all of both of our posts.

in my defense, i especially like Oman's posts where it is fairly obvious he is a complete idiot. although this in itself is not a scum tell, i feel his more lucid posts of today are.

if anything i have said is unclear, please do not hesitate to ask for clarification.

[Karen]

here is an interesting exchange from the start of D2:
post 301:
[quote="Karen"]

... post 301 (too long to quote, the basic gist is i question Scotmany12's investigation)...

[/quote]
post 302:
[quote="Panzerjager"]That is good posting.[/quote]
post 303:
[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]Well, this is interesting. This needs some thought.

Unvote

[/quote]
post 304:
[quote="Oman"]FTR: I don't think mafia killed orig, he had too many votes on him to be logical.[/quote]

again, in 301, i'm questioning Scotmany12's choice of investigation.
in 302, in retrospect, it's obvious Panzerjager would support a counter to Scotmany12.
in 303, we again see KaleiÐoscøpe's constant bandwagoning and switching of votes (as i'm sure you've noticed through your re-reads, he even admits it himself in post 249/250).
in 304, we see Oman's breadcrumbing of SK? (lol, wtf?!?!?!)

obviously KaleiÐoscøpe is lurking, except for his bandwagoning and switching of votes (never posts anything of use/substance).

given these thoughts, and my thoughts above from post 450, i imagine Oman to be the SK (from his posts, i hope you agree that he is stupid enough to actually breadcrumb SK (lol, wtf!?!?!)), and
KaleiÐoscøpe to be the (hopefully) remaining mafia.
of course, from post 450, it's possible i could be the mafia, but i hope my reasoning has made it clear that i am helping the town, as opposed to lurking (not necessarily a scumtell) or breadcrumbing SK (lol, wtf!?!?!?!).

either way, i think everyone has enough information to make an informed decision, and i have peace of mind that i have done my best, whatever happens. good luck.

[Karen]

i apologize for the number of posts, but i hope you feel them to be helpful. on a personal note, i have to look over so many games, i tend to do only 1 re-read during critical votes, so this is where i let my thoughts spill forth.

[quote="JDodge"]BOTH "COPS" SHOULD INVESTIGATE OMAN[/quote]
i'm curious as to why this did not happen.

Panzerjager knew he was going to be lynched, and thus cleared poppinpuffin/Erg0. in all situations, except the case where mafia are extraordinarily experienced (which none you are), a false cop will claim a vanilla to be town. in effect, this:
I) builds trust from that particular vanilla,
II) won't be fingering a fellow scum.

unless

II) he is extremely experienced/ballsy, and attempts to vindicate scum, hoping the cop is a weak player and

ACTUALLY INVESTIGATES WHO THE FALSE COP CLAIMED TO CLEAR.

so, my point is, Oman should have been investigated last nite, since poppinpuffin/Erg0 was basically cleared, and it would've won us the game, since the whole Oman or I being scum issue (from post 45) would've been cleared up.

two things should follow from here:
x) we all recognize Scotmany12 as being a poor cop,
y) another cop comes forward (i hope,

sincerely hope

that either Oman or KaleiÐoscøpe step up).

[Karen]

distad:

Panzer listed him as a lynch candidate yesterday. distad was pretty late onto the Panzer wagon, but he was missing for most of it so that's kind of null. Leaning towards town for him.

in case you might be mislead by Erg0's post, you should find that distad was not "pretty late onto the Panzer wagon," but was actually the second vote (out of an eventual five). so, first off, i don't know in what culture a second vote is "late" or where two votes is a "wagon."

Oman:

Probably not scum, unless ChronX took distancing to the ultimate extreme by replacing out because of an argument with his buddy. The fact that Karen and ChronX both attacked Oman for "wagoning" helps his cause too.

"wagoning" is always a misunderstood issue. i'd say it's about as misunderstood as lurking. the fact that Oman was "wagoning" is not a scum tell, and the accusation that someone is "wagoning" is just that, an accusation.

the game progress with accusations, and defenses against accusations. what Erg0 is doing here is "clearing" someone.

generally, you cannot "clear" someone unless you have special information (e.g. cop), or there exists some really good information/tells. unfortunately, "wagoning," or in this ridiculous case, "being accused of wagoning," is obviously not good enough information for "clearing" someone.

additionally, from my above posts, you will see that i don't engage in trying to clear people or worse yet,

trying to clear people based on my assumption.

in Erg0's post, you will see that he tries to "clear" Oman off the assumption that i am mafia.

that would be the equivalent of me saying in post 450 that, "how do you know that i am not mafia? well, Karen is cleared because Oman is mafia."

as if that doesn't sound like bad logic, what about, "Karen is clear because Oman said accused her of wagoning." wtf?!?!? "oh, and that makes Oman mafia." roflcoptor.

this is not a case of circular logic, but a case of reaching a conclusion based on an unfounded assumption. you cannot know whether Oman is mafia/vanilla or i am mafia/vanilla, since we have not been investigated (i'm still stunned at the choice of investigation of poppinpuff/Erg0).

[Karen]

as if that doesn't sound like bad logic, what about, "Karen is clear because Oman said accused her of wagoning." wtf?!?!? "oh, and that makes Oman mafia." roflcoptor.

ebwop:

should

read:
as if that doesn't sound like bad logic, what about, "Karen is clear because Oman accused her of wagoning." wtf?!?!? "oh, and that makes Oman mafia." roflcoptor.

[scotmany12]

Um karen, I try not to believe the mafia. My investigation was not absurd, not matter how much you think it. Stop acting like you are a pro who have played for years. And the fact that both both chron and oman had quarrels with each other, the same with oman and panzer, i find it highly unlikely that oman is scum.

Also, may I point out your contradiction. You said that a cop is the only one who can clear someone basically. Well you just said that ergo was cleared due to panzer claiming an innocent on him. So yeah, way to go there.

Don't call me a poor cop just because you don't agree with my investigation. Unlike you, I'm not going to believe whatever a mafia member says. I would also have rather investigated you than oman.

At the end of the day yesterday, you said you were leaning to panzer being scum over me, yet you keep your vote on me. Explain this.

[Erg0]

in Erg0's post, you will see that he tries to "clear" Oman off the assumption that i am mafia.

Oman: Probably not scum, unless ChronX took distancing to the ultimate extreme by replacing out because of an argument with his buddy. The fact that Karen and ChronX both attacked Oman for "wagoning" helps his cause too.

LOL. No, I don't believe that's what I said. I cleared him mostly off the assumption that the guy that was lynched and came up mafia was mafia.

You don't think that the massive argument with ChronX, which led to ChronX

being replaced because he thought the game was rigged in Oman's favour

might have some weight? Why the hell would the cop investigate Oman, the guy that looked most likely to be town based on the lynch result? I can completely understand why my play yesterday, combined with puffin's lurking and Panzer's claimed investigation, would lead scot to investigate me. You're really pushing shit uphill here.

[Erg0]

Also, your postulated setup makes no sense. You show a setup that would not put us in LyLo, which I initially thought was just a hypothetical response to JDodge's warning. Based on that, you proceed to build an entire case on someone,

without actually proving your initial assumption that we have two mafia

. What makes you so sure we're not in LyLo with three mafia? It's a far more common number in a game this size. I smell a big fat rat.

JDodge, you'd better have a really good reason if you expect to be able to persuade me to vote for distad.

[Karen]

without actually proving your initial assumption that we have two mafia

.

so, i guess you're expecting something along the lines of the mod deciding to post and tell us the exact setup? are you, like Oman, a complete idiot? the purpose of open-setups is to add flavor/intrigue to games. the point is not to have a setup "proved" one way of the other.

What makes you so sure we're not in LyLo with three mafia?

let's see... start with 10... let's pretend there

are

three mafia. with 2 NightKiliin' roles, that gives us:
70% chance mislynch on D1,
2 dead pro-town on N1,
leaves us with 7 left, three mafia, one SK/vig, and three pro-town.

this situation is of course, not a lock for the scum to win, but as you can see, fairly close.

so, with a three mafia setup, there is 70% they basically have won by N1.

obviously, no setup this bad would ever slip by.

I smell a big fat rat.

what does this game have to do with your mother? why bring her up at all? please keep your posts on topic.

[Erg0]

Um, you do realise that the three mafia, one SK setup is extremely common in mini games, right? And that we started with 12 players, not 10?

Acting like an ass doesn't make you any more convincing, or any less wrong.

[Karen]

Well you just said that ergo was cleared due to panzer claiming an innocent on him.

i think, in retrospect of Panzer being scum, we can all agree that this is likely, if you don't understand the logic, please check out post #452. if you still don't understand, just ask, and i will break it down line by line.

At the end of the day yesterday, you said you were leaning to panzer being scum over me, yet you keep your vote on me. Explain this.

since i never said that i thought panzer was scum, i'm going to say you're an even worse player than i first imagined.

first, you attribute a false statement to me (bit of advice: in the future, use quotes, so you don't look like a fool).
second, since i never made such a statement, you must feel as if you can read my mind, or have some intuition, the latter of which is highly important in mafia. you show very poor intuition.

poor intuition combined with the inability to understand simple logic (e.g. not being able to comprehend post #452) are the sings of a weak player.

weak players makes weak scum, weak townies, and

weak cops.

[Karen]

we started with 12 players, not 10?

that is correct, i was wrong.

Acting like an ass doesn't make you any more convincing, or any less wrong.

that is correct. however, on the other hand, your making ridiculous/unfounded assumptions (see post #453)

does

make you look like an idiot...

[Erg0]

So if you agree that the ad hom isn't helping, why do you persist with it?

Post 453 is the one where you strawmanned me, right? My response is in 456; you're misreading or misrepresenting my reasons for "clearing" Oman. Note that it was you that said I cleared him, I just said he was probably not scum.

Btw, distad voted Panzer in post 279. The conveniently placed votecount in 278 reveals that he was the fifth on that wagon, not the second as you stated in 453.

[scotmany12]

I've given up lynching Scot in favor of accepting the 2 cop idea.

there is definitely the possibility of a 2 cop scenario. however, since Scot has sworn on his life that you are scum, either you ARE scum, OR Scot is scum. the two are clearly exclusive.

so, in the sense that Scot is not "giving up" on you, but you are giving up on him,

you are probably scum.

this is obvious, since an honest cop would NEVER let up from a false claim.
also, in virtually all of our setups with multiple cop scenarios, the cops are informed of their counter-parts, ergo you wouldn't try and kill the other cop.

this being noted, assuming Scot is the cop, Erg0 is 115% correct in that Scot is quite possibly the most novice cop i have ever seen.

Desisted and Oman are most likely to be scum. Seems to be pushing scot and giving completely bullshit reasons to do so.

by the above reasoning of Panzer being scum, this is either a straight up bus, or very helpful in letting us know these two are vanilla.

since both of them are currently on the Panzer bandwagon, i'm personally going to assume it is likely there is one bus and one vanilla. i would suggest that our cop(s) (assuming one out of 50 of them live through tonight) check one of them out this evening.

YOU FUCKING SAID IT RIGHT THERE. Oh, and I'm not a weak player. I stand by my investigation. Just because you agree with it does not mean it was not a good choice. I know your logic behind what you said, and you were wrong. YOU DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING A MAFIA MEMBER SAYS. I was unsure of what to think of ergo at the end of the day. Panzer claiming an innocent on him should be nothing more than a null tell. I do not put this play pass panzer. Panzer is an aggressive player, and this is a play I can see him making. You overlooking this is poor play.

You can insult me all you like, but it is not helping you at all. The only reason I am holding off voting for you is because I want to wait and see what jdodge has to say.

[JDodge]

Nah, I don't really want to say anything. It's more that nobody has given me a good solid reason to vote Karen, so I'm going with my gut.

[Flameaxe]

BBM pops in from the floor and says, "Hey guys, someone said they are being insulted, and want me to do something about it. The only problem is, I don't care enough. Have a vote count while I'm here:

Karen

has 2 votes, those votes coming from Erg0 and and Oman, and is currently is in the lead for lynch votes.

Distad

has 1 vote coming from JDodge.

If you can't tell, there are

seven

of you alive. It will take you

four

votes to make bad things resulting in death happen to them.

[scotmany12]

EBWOP: Just because you disagree with me karen does not mean it was not a good choice.

[Erg0]

Nah, I don't really want to say anything. It's more that nobody has given me a good solid reason to vote Karen, so I'm going with my gut.

I would have thought that Karen's contribution on this page would be more than enough to sway you.

[Oman]

My biggest gripe against Karen here is that she's scummy as hell. Karen, on the off chance you ARE scum, why the hell did you keep bringing up the TA thing early on? It was complete misdirection made to make us seem like bad players when you were being scummy.

[JDodge]

Hrmmm... Maybe I was wrong.

Unvote, vote: Oman

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Well, I'm done with my reread and I would appreciate it if Karen would claim.

[Karen]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]Well, I'm done with my reread and I would appreciate it if Karen would claim.[/quote]
i'm not against this, but i feel this approach should hold off until there's a large consensus or L-1...

[Oman]

I also want to let Karen know. My new tactic when I play scum is to get my partner replaced, its working well.

[/sarcasm]

[Erg0]

Hrmmm... Maybe I was wrong.

Unvote, vote: Oman

You're thinking SK for Oman, I assume?

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Well, let's get to either of that then.

Vote: Karen