Open 32 - Pick Your Poison Mafia (Game Over!), before 470

[Bookitty]

Okay. A caveat on this analysis. I HATE JDodge's playstyle. I understand some people think it's advantageous to play unhelpfully and scummily as town, in order to confuse people on their other games, or some other reason that escapes me. But that's a strategy that hurts town. When scum do it, it's intentionally hurting town, and when town does it, it's just plain stupid and unhelpful. I don't metagame people, because I think it's pointless. I have yet to see a situation where metagaming someone actually helped the town. Good, smart players adjust their play to avoid metagame tells, and bad players can be caught fairly easily by mistakes they make within the thread under discussion. So saying "he always plays like this" does not excuse anything in my eyes. I find the playstyle so unhelpful that I fear I can't be objective in analysing it, and thus, the caveat.

All of that said, JDodge has been profoundly unhelpful, and presents a WIFOM situation. Either he is town, playing unhelpfully to confuse scum, or he is scum, hiding behind a "playstyle" choice in an effort to avoid giving information to town. WIFOM: No townie would behave so scummily, but no scum would behave so obviously.

There is a third option, and there's some supporting evidence for this: He's not paying any attention to this game really. He places a vote on Setael and then comes out with this:

Shit, I confused this game with a different one.

MY MISTAKE

Unvote

And if he's not willing to pay attention, or post any content, then really what good is he to town anyway?

Unhelpful, scummy town is nearly as bad as scum. I don't know which JDodge is, but he's definitely one of the two.

[Bookitty]

Bookitty, you're wrong about the contradictions. Simply put, it makes no sense to make assumptions based on assumptions. Guardian believes you are scum, but is unwilling to make assumptions on the alignments of other players until he has his beliefs confirmed or refuted. If he reads all the other players assuming you are scum and then you turn up town, it's a whole lot of wasted effort. In this sense, him waiting to see if he's right or worng about you is not scummy, and there are no contradictions.

It's certainly possible that I am overreacting. I do think there are sharp and unexplained contrasts in his statements.

You say "Guardian believes you are scum". This may or may not be true, but shouldn't be presented as fact. You are assuming Guardian is town. If he were scum, which I think you must concede is a possibility, then he definitely does NOT believe I am scum. And that is why I pointed out the consistency of the "out" in his argument. He expresses extreme certainty, which to me is a nulltell either way, but then he leaves room for doubt... why? If he is certain enough to kill me himself, then why is he leaving himself wiggle room?

And I don't think rereading the thread with varying assumptions is ever a waste of time, if you're actively looking for scum. I found the FOS and the twisting of Setael's words to be highly suspect, and I intend to go back and investigate the vote swing myself, even though I know my alignment for sure, just to see if there's anything of value there worth sharing.

[Patrick]

The worst I can find, from my own perspective, is that you didn't pursue Jack very hard after your extreme reaction to Ms Piggy's quickhammer, and I don't find that suspicious enough.

Heh. It wasn't an extreme reaction, at least not by my standards. My reasoning on Jack can be found in the first paragraph of my Post 459. I'm interested though, what's your opinion on the alignment of Jack/White?

Guardian, you haven't answered my question about Rishi.

I can see wrong things on both sides of the Guardian/Bookitty debate.

Okay. If you don't know xyzzy's alignment, (I do, actually!) then I would guess that if you're voting to lynch him, and you intend to lynch him, then... you're assuming he is scum already, right? Or is it beneficial in some way I haven't yet heard to lynch town?

This is too limited. When you're voting someone, that does not mean that you are assuming that player is scum. You might even think there's a less than 50% chance that they're scum, but they're still your top suspect. I also think you're suggestions that Guardian is not interested in lynching anyone but you are blatantly not in line with the facts.

I agree that Guardian's FoS of Setael is a real stretch, and I see Shanba has sarnath'd be *shakes fist*

schismatized starts with the wagon on xyzzy (I occasionally think that people pick such difficult names to spell in order to prevent people from voting for them) and then makes a statement that makes some sense. "I think that wagon got a lot of info from xyzzy. If someone had to die right now, it would be him. Its much to early for that so i am going to unvote vote: Mert." Which is notable only because Mert was the nightkill.

I'm curious, why is this notable because Mert was the nightkill? Does it incriminate schizmatized or help him?

"I was more suspicious of xyzzy when i voted for mert, but i didnt and still dont think we have had enough discussion to end the day. Given that, i just voted for the next scummy person in my mind." (This phrasing is just off. It also links you to Mert who was NKed, and I tend to look for such linkages.)

Same question as the above quote.

Mneme's weird interaction with Patrick mentions schismatized, well after schismatized stops playing. This is a point in your favour, I think: "Patrick: major lurking. contradictory play re dylan. (probably the least scummy of those listed; based on the PBPA, schismated, xyz, and dylan are probably more scummy)."

How does this translate to a point in schiz's favour? Previously you've claimed that mneme's comments about me may be distancing, because he was showing suspicion of me without bringing up any real points. It seems like here he's doing that with schismatized.

[Rishi]

And if he's not willing to pay attention, or post any content, then really what good is he to town anyway?

Unhelpful, scummy town is nearly as bad as scum. I don't know which JDodge is, but he's definitely one of the two.

The point of saying that "JDodge always plays like this" is to point out that we shouldn't lynch him just for his playstyle. The theory is that lynching a townie, even if they are unhelpful, is not good for the town.

We could get lucky and get another save from one of our power roles, but, barring that, we can have a maximum of two mislynches. On a third mislynch, town will lose the game.

So, I agree that JDodge could be more helpful, but I also don't think he is scum and shouldn't be lynched just because we don't like the way he plays.

[Setael]

Bookitty, I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts on Rishi. Your arguments have been solid, but just as you replaced in I had made a case on Rishi and the other players had yet to really comment on it and now it seems to be forgotten. I can't help but wonder if you are trying to distract from Rishi.

[Bookitty]

Heh. It wasn't an extreme reaction, at least not by my standards. My reasoning on Jack can be found in the first paragraph of my Post 459. I'm interested though, what's your opinion on the alignment of Jack/White?

I apologise for not having a full answer to this yet. I found the quickhammer suspicious, but I haven't got a firm impression since then. I will post my impressions as soon as I have a chance to examine Jack and White's postings more fully.

This is too limited. When you're voting someone, that does not mean that you are assuming that player is scum. You might even think there's a less than 50% chance that they're scum, but they're still your top suspect. I also think you're suggestions that Guardian is not interested in lynching anyone but you are blatantly not in line with the facts.

I still believe that sustained and intensive pressure on one player, without seeking links between that player and other possible scum, is counterproductive at best and anti-town at worst. I have yet to see Guardian present a case against me or xyzzy. Have you? And yet he's convinced, certain enough to kill, but not certain enough to present his evidence for the rest of the town? I don't buy it.

I think Guardian thinks I'll be an easy lynch, and he's left himself enough wiggle room that he's not definitely implicated himself. But I'm sure there are a number of others he'd be equally happy to lynch.

That said, I can't explain his mneme vote. That's the strongest point in his favour, in my view.

I'm curious, why is this notable because Mert was the nightkill? Does it incriminate schizmatized or help him?

I have a theory that people are nightkilled because of interactions with scum. It's unproven. But I notice such linkages as a result and that's why I mention them.

How does this translate to a point in schiz's favour? Previously you've claimed that mneme's comments about me may be distancing, because he was showing suspicion of me without bringing up any real points. It seems like here he's doing that with schismatized.

It's a valid point. I don't know. I suppose I was assuming that Mneme wouldn't put any scum in his top few suspects... but if he does so without any real evidence... I suppose I can't take that as an indication of innocence on schismatized's part... especially since during that time schismatized completely disappeared and it might have seemed a safe distancing ploy.

You're right. It's a nulltell at best, and distancing at worst.

[Bookitty]

Bookitty, I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts on Rishi. Your arguments have been solid, but just as you replaced in I had made a case on Rishi and the other players had yet to really comment on it and now it seems to be forgotten. I can't help but wonder if you are trying to distract from Rishi.

I don't mean to distract from any ongoing discussions. As a replacement, I'm trying to analyse the game and players, and it's a somewhat lengthy process of playing catch-up.

I intend to analyse Jack/White, as requested, and then I can look at Rishi more closely. In the meantime though, if you have any direct questions, I'll be glad to respond, and I'll look over your case on Rishi now.

[Patrick]

I suppose I was assuming that Mneme wouldn't put any scum in his top few suspects...

I'm confused. I thought you said my inclusion in his list of suspects was likely distancing. Now you're saying you didn't think he'd include any of his buddies in his top few suspects. Explain this?

For the record, I do think that when a scum makes a list of suspects that big, he's probably thrown a buddy in there somewhere. In this situation, that amounts only to saying that there's at least one scum in Thin Man, Rishi, Patrick, Setael, xyzzy and schiz (included myself for completeness of his list) which is statistically likely anyway.

[Bookitty]

I should have said, any MORE scum in his list of suspects. I already indicated that I thought he was distancing from you, so it had not occurred to me as a possibility (stupidly, probably) that he would be distancing from more than one person at once.

I'm sorry I was unclear.

[Rishi]

I think Bookitty has been looking fairly pro-town in her last few posts.

Unvote

for now.

I may need to do a re-read. Thin_Man has been awfully quiet lately.

[Guardian]

Gah... 20 posts or so overnight. Information overload.

Patrick, I am leaning Rishi town, but I'm not sure. I've played with Rishi town 3/4 times, and never with Rishi scum. His play does not seem significantly different, and I haven't noticed any contradictions in this game.

I think I want to re-read Setael again and read Rishi, to see if either is a good alternative to Bookitty. Right now, I am really not feeling BK-town, and definitely am saddened by Rishi's unvote .

[White]

Wow guys, tons to read. I've just been swamped recently and i'm trying to catch up in all my games. I want to reread the Guardian-Seta thing but I can't right now.

Currently i'm most suspicious of Rishi and notice how he seems to be defending Jdodge. Bookitty is seeming agressive but almost hasty in her posts. Nulltell.

Unvote, Vote Rishi

[Patrick]

I'm not sure what to do with JDodge right now.

I could conceivably see Setael and Bookitty as scum together.

[Rishi]

I'm not sure what to do with JDodge right now.

I could conceivably see Setael and Bookitty as scum together.

It is interesting that Setael never really implicated xyzzy and attacked those who were suspicious of him.

[Patrick]

It is interesting that Setael never really implicated xyzzy and attacked those who were suspicious of him.

Yeah that's part of it; in her analysis Setael is trying to channel suspicion away from xyzzy for his lurking onto the other lurker: JDodge. (Although she thinks JDodge is town). Xyzzy is also the only player that Setael doesn't give any definitive assessment of in her analysis. I'm also not wild about her connecting you and xyzzy/Bookitty because it seems stretched, and I know scum often like to connect a buddy to an innocent (and then go after the innocent). It's only a loose connection, but I'll keep it in mind if one of them turns up scum.

[Bookitty]

Okay, as promised, I looked very carefully at the xyzzy bandwagon and its demise. Everyone piles on to the wagon, for no real reason that I can see. Rishi asks why everyone is voting for xyzzy... well, there's no reason, really, at that point. Everyone is trying to get past the random stage (correct me if I'm wrong, but that's what it looks like) and thus jumping on the xyzzy wagon. After the fact, Mert starts justifying the wagon AFTER the fact, with a bunch of really stupid quotes from xyzzy, one where xyzzy doesn't know what WIFOM means, clearly, one where xyzzy is mimicking JDodge to no one's advantage (the comments about Rishi being "the lynch choice today" -- I think xyzzy was trying to mock JDodge's playstyle, and coming off stupid). Then he makes this really stupid remark about starting crapwagons as a playstyle. Sarcasm? Hard to say.

I honestly think that people fell off the xyzzy wagon because they thought it was too quick and because of a misstep by somestrangeflea. Shanba thinks it's too fast, and unvotes while indicating he's still suspicious of xyzzy. somestrangeflea makes a mistake, and Mert first FOS's him, then unvotes. Then somestrangeflea starts making a series of missteps, and I don't think you can regard these as anyone else's fault, any more than you can blame xyzzy behaving like an idiot on anyone else either.

I'm not seeing any real connections. My guess is that there were scum on the wagons for both xyzzy and somestrangeflea, but... mathematically that's almost certain. Mneme does pull his vote from xyzzy to somestrangeflea. I don't know why, unless quicklynching xyzzy would ... I don't see how it would draw suspicion, even, to anyone specifically, so I have no clue why Mneme did that.

Okay, that analysis is concluded, and I don't feel I've learned anything, but I did think this was fairly interesting, right after dylan votes xyzzy in the midst of the somestrangeflea bandwagon...

@dylan41985: why did you vote xyzzy out of nowhere? that post just perplexed me. there was no previous talk about him for a few posts so where did that come from?

Just an interesting reversal from Setael's and Guardian's current positions.

[Bookitty]

Okay. Setael's case against Rishi, and my own take on it.

Rishi voted for SSF without compelling reasons:

I don't buy into this one. Both xyzzy and somestrangeflea had significant bandwagons, and not everyone on them could have been scum. Rishi points out that somestrangeflea is "seriously looking for a quicklynch, which really hurts the town" and which is a valid reason to vote someone.

I don't like the discrepancy between the reaction to somestrangeflea and the reaction to Ms. Piggy, either. This looks oddly forced.

Rishi attacks and then drops the argument at the slightest response:

This is probably your best point. It does look like classic distancing with Patrick and Guardian. I'd especially like an explanation of this comment to Guardian:

Actually, this is the response that I was hoping that you would give. You've dropped off my radar for now.

Why were you hoping for a specific response? Why would you have any investment in Guardian being town, or at least perceived that way? This seems very wrong.

Rishi was distancing from Mneme:

Could be. I have no read on Mneme's gameplay. It's all over the place, and I can't see any way Mneme could have been deliberately distancing from all the people he appears to be distancing from. However, Rishi's pattern of attacking and dropping the attack across three different people seems... a bit more like playstyle, when it's repeated this often. It's possible it's just the way he plays.

Rishi switched his vote to xyzzy for no reason:

No, I got the impression Rishi switched his vote to xyzzy for lurking. (I could be wrong, but that's what I took from his postings.) Which is fair enough. I don't understand the loyalty to JDodge, who's being deliberately unhelpful AND lurking, but I don't like lurkers either.

I did a read of Rishi in isolation, too. I think Rishi tries hard to get along with everyone, which is usually a scumtell, but not always. Claiming to have no suspicions is a scumtell. Refusing to go along with overreaction to Shanba's "lie" is pro-town. Pushing for lurkers to be prodded is pro-town. Lurking and saying you're lurking because you have nothing to say is at best a nulltell and at worst anti-town.

I'm just not feeling this case at the moment. I would like an answer about why Rishi "was hoping" that Guardian would respond a certain way, but I'm not hopping on this wagon without better evidence than this.

[Rishi]

I'm just not feeling this case at the moment. I would like an answer about why Rishi "was hoping" that Guardian would respond a certain way, but I'm not hopping on this wagon without better evidence than this.

When I asked the question to Guardian, I was thinking about what answers would clear him in my mind. I was "hoping" he would say that he was changing up his playstyle a little, because that was the only way that it would reconcile the inconsistency I sensed in my mind: 1) His play seemed a little off. And 2) He still seemed pro-town.

Guardian has pointed this out, but we've played enough with each other that we have a recent read on the other person. I was kind of hoping he would be town, because I didn't want to be way off base.

This doesn't clear Guardian, by any means. I don't know for a fact one way or another. But I feel confident enough that I don't think I'd look at him again on Day 3. If we're both still here on Day 4, then I might re-visit the issue.

And you're right I haven't pointed a lot of fingers in this game. I know that Setael pointed out that I went from not suspecting xyzzy at all to suddenly making him my #1 suspect, mostly because of the lurking. What she fails to consider is that a very large patch of time passed between those two points and other people made cases against xyzzy. Just because I didn't chime in with "I agree" or "You have a good point" doesn't mean I wasn't convinced by arguments of others.

I will do a re-read and weigh in on who I think is scum soon. I don't want to sit on the fence, because I know that's scummy, but I am honestly not sure what to think at this point.

I don't like list-making, because sometimes it gives too much information to the scum. I will say that I need to do an isolated re-read on everyone, but I'll be paying particular attention to: dylan/Setael, Ms Piggy/Jack/White, and HH/Thin_Man.

[Bookitty]

Just to note, I haven't forgotten that I promised to look at Jack/White. I'm not avoiding it, it's just taking me a little longer due to some other commitments (and I think I've put up enough content for people to pick apart and logically demolish, in the meantime) and I will get to it soon.

[Bookitty]

Okay, as promised. My thoughts on MsPiggy/Jack/White.

I really don't like Ms Piggy's eagerness to put the hammer on someone, anyone. But that pales in comparison with her disappearance after having put the hammer on somestrangeflea. That looks really suspicious to me.

Jack isn't here for long, but he does something very interesting. In post 193, he votes mneme for "lurking while trying to make it appear otherwise." Thin_Man shows up and votes mneme too, and Jack then unvotes and votes Thin_Man, with this comment "*wonders if that was a poorly concealed attempt to save dylan*". Then there is a short exchange between Thin_Man and Jack, and they both happily vote mneme. Mneme retaliates, sort of, with a vote for Thin_Man, and Jack responds with "wtf?" because mneme didn't really justify his vote (though Jack seemed fine with Thin_Man's lack of justification for his vote).

Mneme completely breaks down under pressure, expressing suspicions of just about everyone for no real reason, and Jack goes on the attack. Drums up a bandwagon on mneme. "I hate slow games. Can we get some more votes on mneme please?" Continues with "Let's just lynch mneme." Then asks for replacement before mneme is actually lynched.

(I see a few possibilities here. One, Jack is bussing his partner in order to look more innocent later in the game, especially since he was stuck with explaining the actions of Ms Piggy and her arguably scummy hammer. Or two, he's town, and he and Thin_Man share that kind of relationship where a look, a word, is all they need to understand each other. Or three, he's town, and he deduced that mneme was scum just a little sooner than the rest of the town... or four, he's scum who voted for mneme to distance, and then mneme reacted badly to pressure and he had no choice but to follow through.) I lean toward the third explanation, but the fourth one seems very possible to me too. At this point, though, I'm willing to give Jack the benefit of the doubt.

White replaces. Votes xyzzy (me, now) without giving reasons. Later claims confusion, asks for time to reread. Tries to explain his predecessor's actions. White gets into a little exchange with JDodge, where White asks for explanations, and JDodge refuses to give any, because... I already said what I think of JDodge's playstyle. I will not get sidetracked. I will not get sidetracked. (bangs head against wall)

Claims that this game is difficult to understand. Asks the mod about a replacement for xyzzy, and after that, a series of very short posts, with not much usable content.

So, Ms Piggy looks scummy to me. Jack looks town, but not enough to counterbalance Ms Piggy. And White? I see a number of posts, but they are all neutral enough that I don't feel I've derived any useful information from them.

Additionally, posting mostly short, nonconfrontational messages is a pretty big scumtell to me. It's not giving town any useful information, but still presenting the appearance of being active. I could be wrong, but I would call it lurking in plain sight, and I think it's a pretty clever tactic for scum. So I'm putting White on the suspicious side of my list, until I see more actual content and analysis from him.

[Guardian]

I re-skimed Setael // Rishi.

I am not interested in a Rishi lynch today.

Setael, maybe, but definitely I prefer Bookitty more.

Bookitty right now is playing exactly how I used to try and play as scum. Really long ass "effort" posts that make people think you really care AND obfuscate the connection between you and your scum partners. I still think her reason for voting me is absolutely contrived garbage, and that added to xyzzy's play makes me very happy with a Bookitty lynch.



I'm not interested in going back and forth with her; I'm sure she could talk (well, post) me to death. I am interested in her being lynched today, very much so.

If anyone has specific questions about this, feel free to address them to me.

Also, I noted that some people had some suspicions of me about a few things. If any of these are particularly important that I address, let me know.

[Bookitty]

Again, Guardian, care to make a case other than "Bookitty right now is playing exactly how I used to try and play as scum"? Because you've never made a case on xyzzy, who played pretty much the opposite of the way I play, either. Now, because I play differently than he did, you're claiming that it's obvious I must be scum, because I'm playing the way you would if you were scum. That doesn't follow. It's the sort of "gut feeling" nonsense that scum use to justify their non-cases on people.

You asked for my analysis on people. Apparently responding to that request is scummy, somehow, in your eyes. I had a lot to catch up with, given my predecessor's lack of content, so I've posted a lot. So, lurking is a tell, and not lurking is a tell, providing little content for town is a tell, and providing detailed analysis is a tell... at least as long as it involves lynching me, right?

It's been a while since the last vote count, so I can't say for certain, but I think mine is the only vote on you. It's surely not enough to produce the kind of OMGUS tunnel vision that you're exhibiting, and that seems pretty forced to me.

[Shanba]

Bookitty right now is playing exactly how I used to try and play as scum. Really long ass "effort" posts that make people think you really care AND obfuscate the connection between you and your scum partners. I still think her reason for voting me is absolutely contrived garbage, and that added to xyzzy's play makes me very happy with a Bookitty lynch.

If anyone has specific questions about this, feel free to address them to me.
.

Could you provide examples of you playing this way as scum? (Yes I edited your post, it annoys me when people quote lots more than they need to.)

[Patrick]

Interesting assessment of Piggy/Jack/White by Bookitty. I reached the opposite conclusion. I think Jack's play does outweigh Ms Piggy's behaviour.

I really don't like Ms Piggy's eagerness to put the hammer on someone, anyone. But that pales in comparison with her disappearance after having put the hammer on somestrangeflea. That looks really suspicious to me.

I hadn't really thought about his disappearance in that way before.

Guardian, I think Bookitty's posting style is just how she normally posts, on a brief look at other games.

Mod

: Can we get a prod on Thin Man please?

[Guardian]

all games: possible v/la or only posting during the day due to computer issues.