'The Lost Boys' Mafia (Cry Little Sister, it's OVER!)

[dybeck]

Dybeck, your vote has been camped out on me for more than a month now and you haven't managed to get anyone to join your wagon. There's got to be someone else you suspect, unless you're just not interested in actually lynching anyone.

No, Hacker, I'm not happy with any of the existing wagons. I wish there was, because I'd love to be able to derail this idiotwagon that's appeared on me by progressing one of the others. I'm marginally surprised that the town is letting you and Mariyta duck back into hiding every time you get close to getting noticed, but that's not a reason why I should do anything differently.

Having said that, the Tinvision wagon is a much better one than the Dasquian and Sudo_Nym wagons.

[Mr. Flay]

Twenty-fifth Vote Count of Day Two:

dybeck - 3 (Mariyta, cicero, HackerHuck)
-TinVision- - 3 (VitaminR, Battle Mage, Arafax)
Arafax - 2 (AniX, Yosarian2)
PookyTheMagicalBear - 2 (Mastermind of Sin, Dasquian)
Sudo_Nym - 1 (The Central Scrutinizer)
Dasquian - 1 (Sudo_Nym)
AniX - 1 (Sir.Laggalot)
Battle Mage - 1 (PookyTheMagicalBear)
HackerHuck - 1 (dybeck)
The Central Scrutinizer - 1 (-TinVision-)

Not voting - 2 (Crub, Ectomancer)

With eighteen present, ten votes will lynch normally.

However, as things have stagnated, you now have a

deadline for the end of Monday, October 29th

; at deadline, a minimum of five votes will cause a lynch (

provided that is 50% of the cast votes

, i.e. that there are no more than ten votes cast total).

I do deadlines this way to avoid a total distortion of the lynch mob. As an example, right now there are 16 votes cast, so it would require 8 votes at deadline. I will always update you when someone passes into/out of the deadline-lynch threat.

This deadline is firm, barring the need for last-minute replacements.

Go!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Ok, first off I'd like to apologize for my continued absence in this thread.

It's a mix of reader's block and strategic block.

I'll explain what I mean by strategic block, it's one of those modes I get into when I start thinking about a game strategically far too much and end up chasing my own tail in my head and when that happens I sometimes find reasons strategically for lurking that somewhat paralyze my actions, also there is a somewhat ethical concern also and I've finally resolved it.

I was fairly sure on Day 1 that we were dealing with a cult.(And a cult only)

Why? Because a player came out and claimed to be a vampire in the movie but a townie in the game, he was promptly backed up by another player.

Now if you look at the theme of the game and just look at the movie involved, think for a second who could possibly be scum if we had vampires being actually protown.

The character list is simply too shallow for any other group of players to be a Mafia Team other than the vampires. In a game of this size, you'd need at least 3-4 scum in a group for them to have any kind of chance.

Because the character list is so shallow that there is no real possibility for a bad guy group other than the vampires, and because I think it'd be frankly absolutely insane for a vampire scum to claim to be a vampire and protown considering that he'd look like a certain lynch if a scum vampire showed up dead and we're bound to hit at least one vampire eventually before LOL.

The nokill on night one only reconfirmed my suspicions.

Think for a second, who could possibly compose the scum team if the Vampires are not a scum team?

The answer is right there in front of you:

No One Could be a Mafia Team

Which leads me to the conclusion that we are hunting a cult leader(as opposed to a really powerful SK because 1 against 17 isn't really fair and the theme rather lends itself to cults)

What we need to do is to stop this directionless movement and quickly regiment ourselves to move quickly because time moves against us in a game against a cult much faster than in a game against a Mafia by simple mathematics.

What I propose is that we order our vig(should we have one, I suspect we do since it would balance against the Cult's growth power) to fire every night on our orders.

So basically what I would like to have each day are not just one suspect being lynched, but a suspect being lynched combined with a designated vigilante target to give the suspect/vig target ample time to claim some kind of important power role.

Also a cult plays much differently than a mafia group in the sense that a cult does not look for mislynches so much as it moves to protect one person, the cult leader. Very rarely will cult members distance from the Leader because it is simply too risky. As such I'd imagine the Cult Leader's play would be conservative, careful to move with the tide/staying out of the spotlight.

I also would believe that those who came under the heaviest fire are the least likely to be recruited on night 1. Cult Leaders don't want to recruit people who are likely to be killed tommorrow, they want people who are able to stay alive.

Basically I think what we need to focus on and quickly eliminate is the section of the town that is the blandest/relaxed. If we make it so that the cult can only recruit from active players who are into the game and constantly contributing, we will have an advantage because 1) if some1 gets recruited who is active and contributing, it is much easier to spot a difference in play between him and another player if his alignment flips. 2) An active player can't just shut up when he gets flipped, he must stay active because he'd be easy as hell to spot otherwise.

I would like to hear if you agree with my tactical/strategic views on the game before unveiling my picks for who I believe are the best plays for today/tonight for us.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I apologize very sincerely to the town I'm letting down, but school is very busy right now.

I will attempt to get a re-read and substantial posts in, but don't hold your breath.

As it is, I'm still baffled as to why we aren't lynching Sudo_Nuym, and I think that a dybeck lynch would indeed be very bad for the town.

[cicero]

Pooks. Thanks for finally popping in. I hoped if I poked you with a stick enough I'd get your attention.

unvote

1. I am unhappy being the last uninvolved person on a wagon that is now basically the Dybeck, Mariyta, Hackerhuck fight.

2. I didn't FOS tinvision before so I'm not jumping on him now.

3. I am comfortable following Pooky's suggestion. Sort of. For Two reasons:
(a) Following Townie Pookie worked well for me in the recent past in another game.
(b) It makes sense. At this point we are running around in circles. Are on deadline. And no one looks so astonishingly scummy that we have an obvious lynch.

At the same time - I have to remain suspicious and need guidance from other players on this suspicion. Pooky's tactical play makes me think he is truly town. but my scumdar is about 50 million light years far away from perfect. So it would be irresponsible in the extreme to not ask a few obvious and probing questions. Pooky, put it this way:

- why should anyone trust you? You've been the most passive player of all the players in the game. Exactly the kind of person we say we should start lynching. So how about we follow your plan and lynch you first? Make sense?

- What do you think of the possibility that the cult has limitations on who it can recruit? Should we lynch all the name claimed vampires?

- Would Flay have designed a game in which a lucky lynch on day one would have ended the game?

- When you get around to it. What is your thought on everything that has happened in the game? Who is scummy? Who isn't scummy. Which wagons have made sense? You argue that active players shouldnt be able to hide, so you should maybe put youself out there with some evidence as well. Maybe this will be implicit in your next post's recommendation but at the moment it seems to boil down to a few risky rounds of lynch all lurkers.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

-By trust me, do you mean trust that I am innocent or trust my plans as I have unveiled them?

I believe firmly that you should trust my suggestions because if you look at it objectively, it makes a lot of sense. If you were to disagree with my plan, you would have to come up with a likely group of mafia which I think would be quite difficult given the theme and the claims so far. I believe that it's imperative that we move quickly and decisively against a cult that I believe is definitely there because there are so few alternatives.

The Strategy I've outlined and the reasons for each of my assumptions and why I believe they are true can be judged on their own merits.

My strategy makes sense, that's why you should trust it.

As for why you would believe me to be innocent, well it's fairly obvious in my opinion, if I were a cult member, it'd be fairly stupid for me to actually roll out this strategy. It'd be much easier for me to simply roll onto the easy bandwagons and play exactly the way I outlined, simply post enough to not be considered a lurker, contribute opinions that can't be held against any objective light and float through the game untouched. It certainly would've been smarter than pulling out a giant "look at me" sign like I've done and outline a strategy that is in my humble opinion, obviously better than this mindles footdragging that is currently going on.

When I said passive, I meant the type of player would is willing to not really develop any real case and willing to stay in the game by simply posting very little content while pretending to be still in the game, basically just jumping from 1 bandwagon to another without actually

caring

about who gets lynched as long as it is not him or his cult master.

Why do you think I proposed the plan?

Either

A) I am scum and I proposed it to get into the town's good graces.

B) I am town and I proposed it because it gives the town the best chance of winning this game and I am currently a member of the town.

Now consider Scenario A, what is the point of winning brownie points in a game that has a cult? I'll give you a hint, none whatsever, even if Town Pooky were to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he was town today, it would be worthless tommorrow because Pooky could be recruited tommorrow.

Scum Pooky has no incentive to try to get into the town's good graces because "good graces" are only "good" for exactly one day and one day is pretty much worthless this early in the game.

So if I were scum, I'd be trading longterm strategic advantage for the scum for a 1 day reprieve(which I don't even need considering the size of the bandwagon on me and the fact that I could've gotten by simply by posting once in a while and shifting on contentless bandwagons).

- I believe the could be limitations, it really depends on the game balance, I would believe that enough players could be recruitable that lynching the nameclaimed vampires would be a bad strategy. We really can't win against a cult by denying them potential recruits in a large game because balancewise, it would be unlikely that we could win that way.

-I doubt that a lucky lynch on day one would've ended the game, it's probable that the cult has some kind of mechanism to avoid a day 1 loss, I'd imagine some kind of power involving a sudden ending of the day by eclipse or sudden nightfall or something would be involved.

-I would like to see the reactions to my "plan" for hitting the cult quickly first before I reveal who I believe are the most likely culprits.

The thing about hitting a cult is that it starts out small, so it's far harder to hit, that and the fact that the Cult Leader will likely be recruiting away from the lightning magnets, does skew the metagame a bit.

[Ectomancer]

Pooky, I already pointed out the other possible scum group and it consists of 5 guys. They are Surf Nazi's 1,2,3,4, and 5 in the film. Their safe claim is likely beach bum.
It was never my intentions to have as many claims as we do on day 2, but since it happened, I have been systematically pressuring people looking for either one of these claims to put to the test.
A mass claim is not in order at all, but a systematic approach to forcing claims by pressuring the most suspicious player is a valid one to take.

So basically what I would like to have each day are not just one suspect being lynched, but a suspect being lynched combined with a designated vigilante target to give the suspect/vig target ample time to claim some kind of important power role.

Is this the plan you are asking for an opinion on? My question is, do you have a mafia watcher to take advantage of knowing where the Vig (should we have one) will go that night?

[Mastermind of Sin]

That last question doesn't make a lot of sense, Ecto. Could you explain what you mean? I understand that you are introducing a logical fallacy by asking Pooky a question that damns him regardless of saying yes or no, but I...oooh, nvm. I see. Hmm...

[Yosarian2]

Which leads me to the conclusion that we are hunting a cult leader(as opposed to a really powerful SK because 1 against 17 isn't really fair and the theme rather lends itself to cults)

What we need to do is to stop this directionless movement and quickly regiment ourselves to move quickly because time moves against us in a game against a cult much faster than in a game against a Mafia by simple mathematics.

What I propose is that we order our vig(should we have one, I suspect we do since it would balance against the Cult's growth power) to fire every night on our orders.

So basically what I would like to have each day are not just one suspect being lynched, but a suspect being lynched combined with a designated vigilante target to give the suspect/vig target ample time to claim some kind of important power role.

Also a cult plays much differently than a mafia group in the sense that a cult does not look for mislynches so much as it moves to protect one person, the cult leader. Very rarely will cult members distance from the Leader because it is simply too risky. As such I'd imagine the Cult Leader's play would be conservative, careful to move with the tide/staying out of the spotlight.

I also would believe that those who came under the heaviest fire are the least likely to be recruited on night 1. Cult Leaders don't want to recruit people who are likely to be killed tommorrow, they want people who are able to stay alive.

Basically I think what we need to focus on and quickly eliminate is the section of the town that is the blandest/relaxed. If we make it so that the cult can only recruit from active players who are into the game and constantly contributing, we will have an advantage because 1) if some1 gets recruited who is active and contributing, it is much easier to spot a difference in play between him and another player if his alignment flips. 2) An active player can't just shut up when he gets flipped, he must stay active because he'd be easy as hell to spot otherwise.

I would like to hear if you agree with my tactical/strategic views on the game before unveiling my picks for who I believe are the best plays for today/tonight for us.

A cult is certanly possible. Just from a flavor point of view, I liked the suggestion made earlier that we might be dealing with a group that has some mafialike and some cultlike characterists (like a mafia group that can either kill or attempt to recruit, but can only sucessfully recruit certain people).

I will say it would be quite unusual (and hard to balance) to have a true, traditional cult and no killing bad guys at all, especally in a game this big where finding the cult leader early would be quite challanging. That being said, I'm not ruling anything out at this point.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I've never even heard of a mafia watcher role before lol.

[Dasquian]

It's good to see such content from Pooky. It's also a little scummy, why did it take the threat of a deadline lynch to get it?

Anyway - I agree that a cult is a distinct possibility. No deaths, vampires, it all fits nicely and we'd be idiots not to consider it a real threat. However, I also don't think we should be chasing spectres. A cult could be exactly the kind of diversion a real mafia could throw out to send the town off on a wild goose chase; that lack of kill last night could even have been a deliberate miss to engender such discussion.

So I don't think we should chase potential cult leaders any more than I thought we should lynch Arafax for being a potential cult recruit. I

do

think we should lynch scummy people, and if today's lynch turns out to be a cultist or a cult leader, bargain. I do however feel unsettled at the lack of a satisfactory mafia if all of the bad guys from the movies are just normal citizens in this game; beach bums mafia is a possibility but not a terribly compelling one.

I also agree that a single cult leader as the only starting anti-town role would be a risky and somewhat unlikely setup.

I would like to hear Pooky's potential culprits when he feels ready. Sooner, the better, given the deadline.

[Ectomancer]

I do however feel unsettled at the lack of a satisfactory mafia if all of the bad guys from the movies are just normal citizens in this game; beach bums mafia is a possibility but not a terribly compelling one.

Did you miss my post both times? I already gave a very likely scum group and it isn't beach bums.

[Sudo_Nym]

I've been thinking (in college, during class, natch), and maybe we should considering using Occam's Razor here, in absence of more pressing information. Since we can't know whether we've actually got a cult or if the mafia is just a different group, shouldn't we just go with what seems easiest? The easiest solution seems to be a mafia group that isn't the vampires, and the night one could easily have been a doctor.

This whole thing came to me after Pooky's comment; it doesn't seem likely that Flay would have designed a game that could have ended on a lucky day one lynch.

[Crub]

vote:Ectomancer

wtf dude.

[-TinVision-]

I don't get it. Ectomancer's last few posts have seemed A-OK to me.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I've been thinking (in college, during class, natch), and maybe we should considering using Occam's Razor here, in absence of more pressing information. Since we can't know whether we've actually got a cult or if the mafia is just a different group, shouldn't we just go with what seems easiest? The easiest solution seems to be a mafia group that isn't the vampires, and the night one could easily have been a doctor.

This whole thing came to me after Pooky's comment; it doesn't seem likely that Flay would have designed a game that could have ended on a lucky day one lynch.

The simplest solution is a cult that starts with two members. But who knows what he would have done.

[Dasquian]

Did you miss my post both times? I already gave a very likely scum group and it isn't beach bums.

It's been a while since I saw the film. I don't remember the surf nazis at all. They sound plausible, but not terrible compelling - what did they actually do in the movie?

[cicero]

I'm all for following Pookie's advice for a little while.

[Crub]

Did you miss my post both times? I already gave a very likely scum group and it isn't beach bums.

It's been a while since I saw the film. I don't remember the surf nazis at all. They sound plausible, but not terrible compelling - what did they actually do in the movie?

Their role in the movie was really a cameo and all they did was get killed by the vampires.

[Crub]

What I'm trying to say is I doubt they're even in the game let alone the major scum group.

[Mastermind of Sin]

What I'm trying to say is I doubt they're even in the game let alone the major scum group.

Can you come up with enough characters without them?

[cicero]

What I'm trying to say is I doubt they're even in the game let alone the major scum group.

Can you come up with enough characters without them?

K. This makes me want to role claim. There are enough people in this game that it shouldn't put any power roles at risk. With a smaller game I don't think I'd do this. But my role is pretty much the same as what is on the front of the game. Beach bum or something like that. Basic vanilla townie. Nothing sexy or exciting. When I got it I made the assumption that there were more people with that as their plain vanilla. Feel free to investigate or lynch anytime to check. So there's no need to speculate about whether Flay would *need* to put in Surf nazis to make up the characters in the film.

Incidentally, role claiming like this doesn't clear me in the least because if there IS a cult - and I think there is. It just makes total sense given the flavor - then I could easily switch teams tomorrow. At the moment I'm townie, when we all wake up to a new day in early november, who knows.

It's true that what happened last night could have been because the mafia hit the doctor protection. But I think given a) the flavor of the game, and b) the odds of having the doctor block the right NK on night one... that a cult is more likely.

So here's a thought. Go back and look to see if anyones play changed drastically between day one and two maybe?

In any event, Pooky's answers have satisfied me enough to follow his lead and I don't see any better ideas out there. But we still need to hear who Pooks thinks should be lynched and I'm obviously not going to blindly follow him until that happens.

[Ectomancer]

Actually there are enough peripheral characters to populate a town of 19 without including the Surf Nazi's. However, you would be very hard pressed to construct a scum group without making arbitrary ties between various roles. For example, you could tie Sam Emerson to the Frog brothers, but who else could you lgically add? Similiarly, you might put Michael, Star and Laddy into a group, but who else? Sam and Mom? Why? However Flay strung everything together, you would believe he has a story behind it.
Now Crub, this isn't page 1 or Day 1. We've had several claims and we've tested one of them, and a picture is emerging that suggests that we could possibly have a cult, but for certain, the film vampires (with the possible exception of Max) were not the scum group yesterday. Therefore, the mental puzzle becomes working out who the scum group might possibly be. A town size of 19 seems that a scum group of 5 would work nicely.

Cicero, there would definitely be beach bums in the game, otherwise it wouldn't make a very safe claim would it? Also, the Surf Nazi's were in the film, not a creation I dreamed would be dreamed up by Flay.

I noticed the trend in statements trying to hem us into believing that maybe the

only

threat we have to deal with in this town is a cult. Im not in that school of thought, and Im suspicious of anyone who is trying to push that thought while criticizing any speculation on who the scum group possibly be, if not the film vampires.

[cicero]

Well no. I'm betting that almost all the roles in the film are in this game. Look at IMDB: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093437/

You get 13 major roles. 19 people. 5 scum plus a cult? Plus what - two beach bums? Seems almost insurmountable for the town. AND it means the doctor got lucky last night which seems a bit unlikely since there was no major townie role claim.

But hey, it's possible.

Just seems like long odds for a town win.

I hear what you're saying, but I'd rather go cult hunting. Especially since, I don't know if you've noticed, but no one can agree on a lynch.

[Ectomancer]

I'd prefer to go scum hunting. I've seen reason to

suspect

that we

could

have a cult going on, but there also is no proof at all. A no kill last night could

support

the idea of a cult recruiting, but any number of other things could have happened, from a doc protecting, to a roleblocker blocking the killer, to scum deciding not to kill last night simply to push this cult idea to the point of ignoring looking for a scum group.
So, until we have definitive proof that a cult does exist, yes, a scum group of 5 is no problem at all.
I admit, right now it would be 1 beach bum + 5 Nazi's + 13 major roles, unless there are major roles that did not get used, possibly reserved as safe claims.