Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Dunnstral]

Bins - I dislike her posts since D1. Her claim is a coincidence, which makes me think she could be some kind of mafia PR.

"Her claim is a coincidence"

How do you know? Or what makes you say that?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: creature feeling slightly better on this than jaack; I think at least one of xyzzy/jaack are mafia and the other is in tool/creature

[Tyler the Creator]

Wish granted

Votecount 2.10

Desmond_13

: Dunnstral, xyzzy, toolenduso,

Robert2424

, Jaack

Dunnstral

: JFSF

xyzzy

:

Tyler

, Bins,

Desmond_13

,

Zachstralkita

Not Voting

: [Keyser Söze]

see i asked for this votecount because i thought it would look interesting but a townflip is a boner kill
jake ends up hammer but that's meh (don't get why people are townreading or scumreading him for it)

this is why i originally wanted to push on bins a bit today because if bins is town then the xy wagon is towndriven out the ass
BUT that's probably naive to think that there's scum within xy/bins because i later realized how similar they were in constituency

des and xy shared votes with more unflipped peeps like jaack/tool/myself and dunn if you want to count his very open willingness to vote that way if it came down to it

this makes me think that, save for some bussing (with regards to jaack specifically who carried over his vote into today) that it makes xy more likely town

so assuming there's scum on the desmond wagon (which there is, let's be real here) my POE goes like
Dunn - who for you to think is scum, would need to be a GF plus gambiting in a way that makes no sense
Xy - who makes not a lot of sense as anyones partner save for

consistent

bussing from the majority of our unflipped brochachos
tool - who has relatively decent content and im a sucker for effort and always townread it but there are some disconnects in pushes and he seems to kinda be going with the flow a bit recently with regards to creature and jaack stuff but i do like how he's not latching onto dunn right now because that seems like a REALLY important mislynch for scum to grab if they wanna win at this point
and then jaack

who's opening to start today wasn't good, and his play today has drifted towards scum almost transparently
i'll go into this in a few

[Dunnstral]

What about creature/keyser slot? Might be hard to analyze understandably

Also I'm pretty certain that Bins is town right now, disregarding that voyeur crumb that I don't care about

[Tyler the Creator]

dunn you really outta start reading my posts

[Dunnstral]

I don't see anything about creature....

Man I did read your posts

[Dunnstral]

Nvm you mean post 1877 huh

I did see that

I guess I'm asking is creature more likely mafia than jaack

[Dunnstral]

I like a creature lynch more than a Jaack lynch because all I really get from Jaack is very un-hesitant bad logic. Which is opportunistic, but could come from town (ugh). The more I look at Keyser's posts the more believable a set-up bus looks.

thing is im isoing keyser and calling his push on ha bussing is sorta hard to swallow

HAHAHA

ok I didn't read this one

[Bins]

I'd believe that des was a counter wagon looking at that

[Tyler the Creator]

I like a creature lynch more than a Jaack lynch because all I really get from Jaack is very un-hesitant bad logic. Which is opportunistic, but could come from town (ugh). The more I look at Keyser's posts the more believable a set-up bus looks.

thing is im isoing keyser and calling his push on ha bussing is sorta hard to swallow

HAHAHA

ok I didn't read this one

well don't laugh because if you want me to go the creature route over jaack today then you gotta help me break that barrier

im kinda almost at that point though after looking at things

[Tyler the Creator]

I'd believe that des was a counter wagon looking at that

y

[Dunnstral]

I mean at the same time I'm kind of ready to go back to jaack too

The thing about keyser is that he didn't post much and the posts he did make in the latter half were very to-the-point where he didn't really converse with anyone

[Tyler the Creator]

IF keyser is scum then the wagon dynamics mean literally nothing because only 1 scum was playing the game day 2 against like 10 town

a town driven wagon on town becomes a lot more believable then - but it already was to start with because of how much traction they shared

seriously guys read my posts

[toolenduso]

I was gonna do a comprehensive VCA and then I realized just how many votecounts there were. Tyler's approach of selective VCA is better, although I am still not understanding why xyzzy having more voters unflipped makes them town.

Did a quick little alt-view of the votes instead:

Spoiler: Individual votes

-Keyser/Creature: Jaack (55),

HA

(297),

Dunn

(1865)
-xyzzy: Jaack (7),

Zachstral

(89),

zakk

(852)
-Tyler: xyzzy (46),

ira

(109),

Robert

(628),

HA

(670),

zakk

(737), xyzzy (1308), jaack (1803)
-Jaack:

HA

(5),

Robert

(13),

ira

(66),

HA

(358),

ira

(480),

Robert

(616),

HA

(673),

Robert

(708), xyzzy (1011),

zakk

(1217), xyzzy (1322),

Desmond

(1517), xyzzy (1620),

Dunn

(1700)

One thing I do note is just how little voting Keyser did in this game. And how low-activity he was too. That does go against what I remember of his town game, and Creature's entrance today fits scum very well. I am thinking atm that if Creature flips scum then Jaack would be less likely to be partner -- in which case I think I'd be looking at xyzzy based on PoE.

(that's because of the scum-acting-together idea I had wrt to HA's claim -- Keyserslot voted HA without hesitation after HA's claim and didn't go for Robert, whereas Tyler did go for Robert. Ergo, Creature/Tyler is not as likely a scumteam as Creature/Xyzzy)

And somebody (think it was tyler) made a good point about Jaack's ballsiness throughout the game. He's gone for basically everything it would be convenient for scum to go for -- Robert after he made one bad post to open the game, Robert again when he messed up his macho claim, Dunn when he gambited. It seems a little brazen for scum, and while I can see scum doing it...well, it goes back to what I talked about at the beginning of the game, where there was this feeling that scum just wasn't doing a whole lot. It'd make sense for scum to have a lot of low-key players, and Jaack hasn't been low-key.

So basically the more I think about it the more I think Creature is a good lynch today.

VOTE: Creature

That's L-2

[Dunnstral]

I am reading your posts though

I said earlier that if jaack is scum then xyzzy isn't scum because of how carefree he was to vote between zakk and xyzyy (seemed like either would be fine, basically took no stance and said something about them not being his preferred lynches)
I want to hear from xyzyy

I'm wondering if both mafiia would come out charging at me in a way - mafia would be trying to convince tool/xyzzy/robertslot to join the wagon I'd think (or one of them is posturing to join it later)

Here's the thing - Tool doesn't look like he's posturing to vote me at all; I won't assume what xyzzy does and robertslot is empty and town so it's more like who appeals to them I guess when they arrive

[Dunnstral]

although I am still not understanding why xyzzy having more voters unflipped makes them town.

No no I don't think anyone is saying that

I quoted this earlier;

since no one else ever bothered to try to come up with an actual answer as to why: Dunnstral, is your claim directly related to your assertion in 831 that you are 100% sure that Robert is town?

I feel like over the course of night one I lost track of a lot of what's happened in this game, and I really need to do a more comprehensive reread of day 2 so far, because I've not had time to go back and do any extensive rereading. basically, though, I got the sense during night one that I had probably been pushing too hard in directions where there was likely going to be little movement, and not really focusing as much on the topics everyone else was discussing during day one, and I've been relying too heavily on which people I feel are contributing the most to the game as a general sign of who's scum and who's not. partially that's just because I don't fully trust my own intuition yet--I'm still in that phase of feeling like I'm rusty at all of this. I think it's reasonable to be suspicious of me coming out of the gate day two basically just losing any momentum and not really having any strong opinions--I just didn't really trust my gut at that point in time, and that's what I was trying to express.

I'm feeling better about Bins now. I'm still feeling fairly confident that Jaack is town and am puzzled by the belief otherwise. I really don't like zakk's most recent post (1081) at all. I definitely think Dunnstral's townie claim (which I asked about in 993) is a fairly crucial piece of information given his response to my question about it in 994, and I'm really curious what other people think about it--the way he framed the assertion that Robert is town seems to imply that he has information that a townie wouldn't normally have access to (and isn't merely very confident of it). I'm especially curious what Robert thinks about that.

I'm going to do some rereading and hopefully write some words about that soon.

I actually didn't realize it was so clear cut

Looks like xyzzy definitely suspected that I was cop with an inno on robert from the bolded part. That's why I think they could actually be town here

[Dunnstral]

I am thinking atm that if Creature flips scum then Jaack would be less likely to be partner

I don't think I agree with this; I don't think both scum needed to "act together" to bus h_a when robert was still a possible lynch

[toolenduso]

No no I don't think anyone is saying that

I quoted this earlier;

...

No, I saw that. That I understand. Tyler is saying something about players who are still alive making up most of xyzzy's wagon:

des and xy shared votes with more unflipped peeps like jaack/tool/myself and dunn if you want to count his very open willingness to vote that way if it came down to it

this makes me think that, save for some bussing (with regards to jaack specifically who carried over his vote into today) that it makes xy more likely town

...and I'm not following the logic.

I don't think both scum needed to "act together" to bus h_a when robert was still a possible lynch

I think they would, though. They have daychat, so for something like HA claiming doc they would have discussed that in their chat. There'd be a plan for it, and it would have been in place before Robert claimed. It would either be "we're going to out town's protectives and bus HA" or "we're going to have HA claim protective to save him."

I mean I know it's speculative but it seems pretty likely to me.

[Dunnstral]

Am I the only one not buying H_A claim? Doc is a pretty standard scumclaim, and combined with the lame AtE and the timing (L-2) makes it stink to me.

That being said, it probably isn't the best idea to lynch h_a D1 when there are similarly good options available.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: iraonavp

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:

Aaaaand the nail in the coffin: H_A didn't vote for the guy counterclaiming him.

Intent to Hammer

I'll hammer in like ~14ish hours unless someone else does/someone wants to say something for whatever reason.

It's not merely about misreading a role pm.

It's that he claimed never to have heard of his role despite understanding what it does and having confirmed it in pregame. (See 587)

That being said, let's try to work out what we should do.

So let's assume for a second that all three of ira, h_a, and Robert are telling the truth about their roles.

Robert would be little more than a named townie with only the macho modifier. Since doc is slightly better than bg, h_a would be slightly more useful than ira. So the "best" lynch in this scenario would be robert, and then have ira protect h_a and h_a protect someone aside from ira.

Assuming at least one is scum, then once again Robert is the best lynch, as it's highly doubtful that a macho townie with no night role exists in a game with just a lone doc/bg. If one of ira/h_a is scum, Robert almost certainly is as well.

I guess there is the possibility they are all scum pulling a ridiculous gambit, but that is infinitesimally unlikely and would become obvious by d3.

VOTE: robert2424

Most logical place to start.

Uh, he stated intent to hammer then sorta slipped out of it, looks pretty bad

[Dunnstral]

Jack. If your going to mention me in your posts. Please use proper grammar. Out of all the people who suspect me, you make the least amount of sense. I literally reread some of your posts several times.

P.S. your %'s make 0 sense.

Reading comprehension is your friend. I literally write for a living, so, you know, I know how to grammar good.

My percents were my opinions of how likely each scenario was. I don't see how they wouldn't make sense.

It's also nice how you failed to criticize any of the points I made.

I also have no clue what you are talking about with the vig thing. My plan was to lynch you today and, assuming you flip scum, lynch HA tomorrow. But seeing as there doesn't seem to be significant support for that, I guess HA is okay enough to vote

VOTE: heuristically_alone

That's L-1.

VOTE: Robert2424

I have a big post detailing why this is scum on the way, but for now I'll park my vote here.

In other news, a couple parts of 698 give me scumvibes. Xyzzy uses a lot of words to say very little, at least in terms of opinion.

I also don't like the unnecessary apology for tunneling zach. Looks like scum that's too self aware of how they're playing.

I mean he was half-bussing H_A for sure but looked like he wanted robert lynched

[Dunnstral]

does anyone ever crumb anymore

[Tyler the Creator]

...and I'm not following the logic.

i think if keyser is scum it holds significantly less weight now that ive been thinking about it

why do you think jaack keyser is an unlikely pair?

[toolenduso]

why do you think jaack keyser is an unlikely pair?

Less likely than Keyser/Xyzzy anyway. And it's because both slots are going after Dunn right now. I just question whether both remaining scum would do that.

[toolenduso]

keyser is scum it holds significantly less weight now that ive been thinking about it

And if the Keyser slot is town?