Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #26!

Oman (2) - Gemelli, AlyG
dybeck (2) - originality, Oman
originality (2) - dybeck, Elias_the_Thief

Not voting: Lucienne, vollkan, shaft.ed

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Day 2 Deadline: November 1

[shaft.ed]

And apart from that, there's still the point I've made about the possibility of losing if we don't hit mafia today.

vollkan's already pointed this out, but it's incredibly unlikely and pretty much impossible that we are in LyLo if orig is mafia. If we lynch town, the SK has no mathematical way of winning the game unless he kills mafia tonight. Since orig is a confirmed killer, and if he's mafia we pretty much have to have a SK, and the SK has to kill mafia tonight in order to win I don't see the town needing to be at all afraid of orig mafia. Orig SK is the only threat for today, and he is only going to put the town in an autoloss tonight if he choses to kill town, which will be an autoloss for him since he will be incredibly likely to be autolynched if he kills anyone tonight. I'm quite getting tired of you making this out to be a must lynch orig situation when it has repeatedly been shown to not be the case.

[AlyG]

Sigh

Unvote: oman

firstly. Now for my new vote i'm leaning towards Dybeck, she was always my 2nd choice for lynching and he really hasn't looked good during Day 2. I've analysed her here:

Dybeck, you have done some very weird plays during Day 2 such as voting shaft.ed for saying "Oh great we may have a serial killer." It isn't scummy it's an observation! You are also very eager with your votes e.g. after i claimed you immediately voted originality while completely ignoring the other roles that he could possibly be. You also have overlooked lots of information before posting e.g. Asking Originality why he killed CarrotCake when he had already posted his reason a page ago. Overall, he has been playing really weird and IMO scummy so HOS: Dybeck

And she was 2nd on my NK list:

1) No Kill
2) Dybeck
3) Oman
4) Meh...Elias

A few pages later i would have put Oma 2nd and she would have gone to 3rd. I also have a HOS on her. I'm leaning towards voting for her but i won't straight away.

[vollkan]

Reading shaft.ed's latest post got me thinking.

If we were to lynch mafOrig today, (to draw on what I wrote back in #1000.
MafOrig lynch = 5:2:1
--MafNK town = 4:2:1 (P = 5/6)
----SKNK maf = 4:1:1 (P = 2/7) P = 0.23

----SKNK town = 3:2:1 (P= 5/7) P = 0.59

--MafNK SK = 5:2:0 (P = 1/6)
----SKNK maf = 5:1:0 (P = 2/7) P = 0.04
----SKNK town = 4:2 (P = 5/7) P = 0.11

If we mislynch today and Orig is mafia,
Mislynch = 4:3:1
--MafNK town = 3:3:1 (P=4/5)

----SKNK mafOrig = 3:2:1 (since this is pretty certain, P=4/5)

--MafNK SK = 4:3:0 (P=1/5)
----SKNK mafOrig = 4:2 (again, pretty certain so P=1/5)

A SK lynch where Orig is mafia,
SKLynch = 5:3:0
MafNK town = 4:3 LYLO. (Lynching Orig would then make it 4:2, then mafNK makes it 3:2)

The key point to draw from this is that a lynch of mafOrig is actually likely (P=0.59)to be only as beneficial to us as a mislynch will most likely be (P=4/5).

Both put us in 3:2:1.

FTR, the 3:2:1 scenario:
At 3:2:1,

Mislynch D3 = 2:2:1

MafNK of town = 1:2:1 (P=2/3)
--SK NK of town = 0:2:1 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
--SK NK of mafia = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
MafNK of SK = 2:2:0 (P=1/3)
--SK NK of town = 1:2:0 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:1 LYLO (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)

Maflynch D3 = 3:1:1

MafNK of town = 2:1:1 (P=3/4)
--SK NK of town = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.5625)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:0:1 LYLO (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
MafNK of SK = 3:1:0 (P=1/4)
--SK NK of town = 2:1:0 LYLO (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
--SK NK of mafia = 3:0:0 WIN (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.0625)

SKLynch D3 = 3:2:0

MafNK of town = 2:2 LOSS (P=1)

Now, if the 1:1:1 YUCK were to arise:

Town lynch

Townlynch = 0:1:1
MafNK of SK = 0:1:0
--SK NK of maf = 0:0:0 PLANE IS EMPTY (draw...I think)

Maflynch

Maflynch = 1:0:1
SK NK of town = 0:0:1 LOSS

SKLynch

SKlynch = 1:1:0
Maf NK of town = 0:1:0 LOSS

NoLynch

Nolynch = 1:1:1
MafNK of SK = 1:1:0 (P=0.5)
--SK NK of Maf = 1:0:0 WIN (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25)
--SK NK of Town = 0:1:0 LOSS (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25)
MafNK of town = 0:1:1 (P=0.5)
--SK NK of Maf = 0:0:1 LOSS (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25)
--SK NK of town = 0:1:1 DRAW...I think (since they kill each other off) (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25) --> This is where SK and maf both target townie.

Can someone please confirm for me that if town loses first, do we still get a draw if maf and SK kill each other out?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My final thoughts: As we can see, a lynch of mafOrig has a 0.59 chance of placing us at 3:2:1, from where our loss (or 1:1:1) is quite likely.

A lynch of SKOrig, VigOrig or non-OrigSK places us at 5:3 LYLO.

Therefore,

it is utterly stupid of us to lynch Orig

. I cannot stress that enough.

Our best bet is to lynch a non-Orig mafioso in ANY event.

If Orig is mafia;
non-OrigMafLynch = 5:2:1
--MafNK town = 4:2:1 (P = 5/6)
----SKNK Orig = 4:1:1 (P = 1) P = 0.833 (P=1 since the SK will certainly NK Orig, unless they are trying to lose)
--MafNK SK = 5:2:0 (P = 1/6)
----SKNK Orig = 5:1:0 (P = 1) P = 0.1666

If Orig is SK or Vig, things are difficult in terms of probabilities. The mafia know that if Orig NKs he will be lynched tomorrow, but they don't know whether Orig is SK or Vig. As such, I don't know quite how I should compute the probabilities. The raw numbers are easy enough (for SK, see the first set I give in this post). If we assume that the mafia NK Orig and Orig does not NK, then we end up opening D3 at 5:2 regardless of Orig's alignment.

I may well be wrong somewhere in this analysis, but if I take it as correct it tells me very clearly that we should not even be contemplating an Orig lynch.

[shaft.ed]

vollkan, thanks for the numbers on this. I think it more clearly illustrates a point both of us have been trying to make for a while now, that regardless of originalities alignment lynching him is not in the town's best interest.

His claim was suicide. No matter his role, he is incredibly likely to be NK'd tonight.

If Orig is mafia, it is by far in our best interest not to lynch him. This serves two purposes. First the town can use it's lynch to effectively hunt other scum or at the very least generate leads to go on tommorow. Secondly, OrigMafia means we have a SK. The SK will have to kill orig tonight in order to have any chance of staying in the game. The is a death sentence for orig

AND

it will prevent the SK from killing townies in the night.

Orig being a vig or SK will be of little difference to the mafia. They both pose the same threat in that they are antagonistic killing roles. I think the mafia are highly likely to want to target a killing role over a tracker that will almost certainly be receiving doc protection should we have a doc in this game. Even with accounting for protection, the utility of a tracker is less than that of a killing role. Therefore, killing origSK/vig will be in the mafia's best interest. Again, as in the OrigMafia scenario, by leaving him alive the mafia will be distracted from killing definite pro-town targets. If this NK distraction is not left in place the mafia will at the very least take out a sure townsperson and very likely a powerrole given that 3 vanillas are already out of the game.

I seriously don't see him surviving the night either way. And the numbers show that lynching him is not in our best interest.

[Gemelli]

Well, most of my argument was based on the fact that I thought he was not avoiding this game, but simply lurking in order to get away from the heat. He started posting less around the end of last month, and that's when he made the comment about "the town was doing so well hunting scum." That's really what set me off about Oman. I felt his constant avoidance of this issue was him trying to appear sloppy and just wait out the day since dybeck was such a good candidate. But since he's actually asking to be replaced, I can understand him making a statement like that.
While I take issue with his bandwagoning, if you do any meta on him you'll know this is a constant tactic of his regardless of side. In and of itself I don't think it's enough to make a case against him. Especially when I feel I've been giving others a lot of benefit of the doubt due to some gut feelings of mine.

While I found the lurking and bandwagoning troubling, I was more suspicious of Oman based on his D1 actions than anything else. Without further ado, I give you:

The Gemelli Case vs Oman, Part 1: The Rolefishing Waffle

Pages 9-10 show Oman taking both sides on the matter of whether rolefishing -- specifically, getting Dr. BS to post more information about his role -- is a bad thing or not.

First, read his post 218:

Yeah, rolefishing means fishing (or searching) for players roles. Its not good because if you said for example: What is your role Blackstrike and he said "Doctor" then he's NKed for sure, or if he's lieing the real doctor might inadvertantly reveal himself by not beleiving the claim. Basiccaly, It doesn't help the town one bit.

He then does a 180-degree turn in posts 239 and 242 (read page 10 for the context). These posts were follow-ups to Dybeck asking Dr BS if he could prove his powerrole in 233, and Elias asking him in 236 why he wants to get this information. In post 239, Oman says that this information helps the town:

Well, if he can prove himself, then we let him live. He proves himself to us N1 and we know for sure that he is said powerrole.

No, I don't buy that. Info helps town, no matter what. It might help the mafia to some degree, but most of the time, the town wil benefit.

I happen to agree with the sentiment from post 218; power role information should stay hidden, particularly on day 1. Posts 239 and 242 are his tacit approval of further rolefishing. (He then backpedals in post 263, after meeting more town resistance and suspicion.)

:: The Gemelli Case vs. Oman: Intermission ::

Something I found odd, but not worthy of major suspicion, in the posts around this period was that dybeck and oman used the exact same wording in posts 261 and 269, both claiming that they were "not feeling" the originality wagon. This is probably not meaningful on its own, but combined with other posts, could be corroborative.

The Gemelli Case vs. Oman, Part 2: Ryan Goes Overboard

Most of my suspicion on Oman focused on what happened in pages 12-13, an arc of posts in which Ryan ended up modkilling himself. I think we can all agree that he was an idiot for doing that. However, the fact remains that he is a confirmed town player, and that his overreaction WAS prompted by the start of a bandwagon moving quickly against him. So there is merit at looking at these posts for clues.

Let's look at how that all started, with ryan posting a question to Dr BS:

Back on Page 9 you hint at a power role, now you say you aren't claiming anything? How about instead of not scum hunting you do a little bit of that?

In post 293, originality used the quote function to recast Ryan's statement as "Dr.B should roleclaim". I think I've said this before, but I found that to be an incredibly scummy thing to do. We are talking about two lines of text here. Why bother creating the quote tags and then changing their contents? Paraphrasing is fine, but going to the extra work of dressing up a paraphrase as a quote is just dishonest.

FWIW, I first read ryan's post to mean "How about instead of not scum hunting, you do a little bit of

scum hunting

?" Originality chose a different interpretation but went to the trouble to disguise it as a quote.

Post 295, ryan called originality out for post 293, and started overreacting.

Post 297, Oman voted for ryan. He claimed "No this is not based on whatever originality was saying (WTF?)", then proceeded to echo originality's "you are rolefishing" arguments in the last 2/3 of his post.

Posts 300-301, Oman and originality gave each other textual reach-arounds.

Post 302, Dybeck added his vote to the Ryan bandwagon. He claimed that Ryan's post "Back on Page 9 you hint at a power role, now you say you aren't claiming anything?" is blatant misrepresentation. (Actually, it was true ... in post 220, Dr BS *does* hint at a power role, and in post 290, he reiterates that he is not claiming doctor.)

Post 303, AlyG agreed with dybeck that Ryan has "blatantly misinterpreted" Dr BS's comments, but did not vote.

Post 304, Oman asked AlyG two leading questions:

@AlyG:
Where do you fall on ryan so far?
Has originality done anything recently that looks scummy?

Post 305, ryan started really going batspit. He reiterated his suspicions on originality, and suspected Oman for his use of leading questions. Which brings us to what I found to be Oman's most damning post in the thread:

You want to talk about controlling the town or TRYING to control the town, let's check door #1...........ah yes its Oman.

OMGUS gets you nowhere friend.

Why am I controling the town now?

I'm trying to find out who's the scum, so if you think me making sure I don't place a vote on a power role is role fishing than I'm guilty as charged.

(1)

Firstly, what does it matter if you're voting a town powerrole or a vanillia townie? They're both town.

I had a quote paraphrased and attempted to use against me and it's laughable how Oman nor dybeck are realzing that

(2)

You fail at reading text.

No this is not based on whatever originality was saying (WTF?)

(3)

And I hate to defend other people, but dybeck never even mentions the fact that you were rolefishing.

So nice try,

(4)

read the arguments on you before you defend against them and OMGUS me less.

(Bold numbers added as index)

(1) Ryan claimed he wanted to avoid voting for a power role. Oman has, I believe, deliberately misrepresented ryan's post to imply that Ryan has indicated that voting for a townie is OK.

(2) Ryan's comment is stating a fact. Oman replies with a classic Ad Hominem attack, putting the burden on him by implying that ryan only makes that case because he is a bad reader.

(3) Where in ryan's post does he claim that dybeck accused him of rolefishing? Nowhere.

(4) Another Ad Hominem attack. Ryan must be wrong, because he is a bad reader and anyway his whole post is nothing but OMGUS.

**This post, specifically, includes at least three examples of Oman distorting facts in order to advance his case on Ryan. I cannot reconcile that behavior with a pro-town role.**

Oman and ryan continued their back-and-forth in 311-314. Then Dr BS added his vote to ryan in post 316.

Post 318, originality used the same twist on ryan's words to suggest that he asked BS for a roleclaim, indicating that he thinks "that" obviously referred to role claiming in ryan's original post. He then suggests that since ryan later claimed that he wasn't asking for a roleclaim, he is a liar. He votes for Ryan.

Post 319, AlyG posted continued suspicions of originality, indicates that he buys the "Ryan was rolefishing" argument, and HoS's ryan. 320, ryan snapped and posted his role PM.

======================

That's it in a nutshell. My main arguments against Oman are that he:

* Seemed to be pushing for Dr BS to reveal role information, then backpedalled when it became clear that consensus was against him
* Distorted game information, including reiterating facts that originality had distorted previously, in order to make a case against Ryan
* Used "rolefishing" as a primary source of suspicion on Ryan, conveniently forgetting that in post 242, he had advocated the exact same thing

The lurking and bandwaggoning were just minor aspects of why my vote went on him in the first place.

On rereading this recap, my suspicions against originality and dybeck are also quite high, but Oman is still my first choice for "most likely to be scum based on events to date."

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, interesting analysis of Oman's D1 there. I have to say, since I was here for that exchange, that I personally found ryan to be the one acting most scummy at the time. While Oman was pressuring ryan quite hard, I hadn't seen the distortion of facts as you point them out here. Have to go re-read some of Oman's D1 content.

To me the biggest strike against Oman is still that he had AlyG on his "hit list." I can't think of any way to reconcile that one. But I'm still seeing the case against dybeck as bigger.

Need to go reread both of these guys....again.

[Gemelli]

I think that ryan's posts looked as scummy as they did for two main reasons:

1. His tone tended to be hostile and defensive
2. His posts were being manipulated and reinterpreted by Oman and Originality

I can't say how I would have reacted if I'd been in the game at the time; for my initial read I had the advantage of knowing that VH/Ryan was a confirmed, scummy-sounding, dead townie.

I think the case vs. dybeck is also quite strong, and I would participate in a dybeck lynch if the consensus is to leave Oman alive tonight. I still suspect that originality is scum as well, but the previous posts on this page from vollkan and shafted indicate why I think it's safe for the town to leave him alone today. Anyway, he's promised not to NK tonight. So if two players go down, we have an autolynch ready on D3.

[Gemelli]

Er, that last sentence should read: "So if two players die during N2, we have an autolynch ready on D3."

[Elias_the_thief]

Alright. I'll back down on the Orig lynch, if the numbers are that bad.

unvote

I'll have to reevaluate the cases against Oman and Dybeck then. I dont have the energy now, I'll have it tonight.

[shaft.ed]

This quote from ryan is really what set off my misfeelings towards him.

I'm not feeling this originality wagon

Ok let me respond to this in a two parter

1) Players who defend another player unless they know 100% they are innocent had better be able to deal with the consequences if that said person ends up being scum

2) WHY aren't you feeling it? I do not like defending somebody with ZERO evidence to why

a) it's a bad choice

b) who's a better one


I'll give you a chance to respond to these before I officially put a FoS on you.

Dybeck simply state that he wasn't feeling the originality wagon, which was pretty much consensus at the time, and ryan just flipped out. (Note the irony btw that ryan's suicide began over an orig wagon argument that dybeck opposed, and dybeck's biggest case of contention also surrounds trying to get orig lynched).

ryan was also blatantly rolefishing towards Dr. BS. While orig's quote game was all sorts of stupid, it was also all sorts of obvious that he had faked the quote. ryan had already stepped in it prior to that whole debacle.

But you are right, Oman did handle it in a manipulative way that I did not notice at the time due to my suspicions of ryan.

[originality]

Letting everyone know I'm still alive. Theres nothing for me to say right now, since the subject here seems to be whether to lynch me or not, and I'm sure most of you know where I stand on that.

Outside of that things haven't been moving much from what's been going on lately. Elias reevaluating Oman and dybeck should throw some new fire in the discussion, I hope. Talking about new ideas, when was the last time Lucienne posted?

Mod, could you prod her

[Streeflo]

Lucienne

has been prodded

[shaft.ed]

OK guys, I can see with Oman's leaving and the originality lynch discussion once again making its logical conclusion things are slowing down. I just wanted to let everyone know I've got two deadlines this week so I'm not likely to be putting up anything super-substantial, but I'll definitely be paying attention. Hopefully we'll get the Oman replacement up and running in time to move discussion along.

[Streeflo]

Korlash

replaces

Oman

Everyone give a warm welcome to him for replacing in at 43 pages! =D

[Gemelli]

Korlash, you rock! Welcome to the game.

And when you read through the last few pages of my posts ... it isn't personal

[Streeflo]

Because of the replacement, I might extend the deadline. If necessary.

[vollkan]

Wow. Thanks so much Korlash and well done Streeflo.

Anyway, some thoughts since my last post:
Gemelli's D1 analysis of Oman fortifies the case to a significant degree. Right now, we have two strong cases on both Oman and Dybeck and I think our challenge now is to work out which one is best.

I am anxious to see how dybeck reacts to my having crippled his case on dybeck, not only his arguments but the numbers of it as well.

[Korlash]

How Dybeck reacts to his crippled case on dybeck... huh... either thats a typo or I am going to run into some odd shit when I finish reading his novel... Either way... I will try my best to get through it tonight and post something...

[Elias_the_thief]

How Dybeck reacts to his crippled case on dybeck... huh... either thats a typo or I am going to run into some odd shit when I finish reading his novel...

Yeah, I hope that's a typo, or else I might has well give up on this game (again). Could you correct that vollkan?

[vollkan]

[quote="Vollkan meant to write]
I am anxious to see how dybeck reacts to my having crippled his case on Orig, not only his arguments but the numbers of it as well.
[/quote]

[Korlash]

Oh geeze... I think I got up to day two before falling asleep... Man... Long game this is...

I even thought I had taken notes in my little black book... lets see if I can find it...

"Dear Diary,

Today Jenny Logan put a frog down my pan-"

>.>
<.<

wrong book...

Ok I thought I could maybe do a little input by reading from when these Dybeck/Oman bandwagons started, yet... That seems to be like... I don't know... Probably right after day 2 started... So It might take me a bit longer then expected to get up to speed...

Uh... so... theres a small chance I won't be able to actually post my thoughts tonight... Not cause I'm lurking or anything, mostly cause I actually have to get ready for work in the morning and I don't know... sleep... I hope ><

So... yeah... I'll read as much as I can, expect something in the morning or at the latest tomorrow... sorry.. I'm only human ^^' .... I think...

[Lucienne]

/self-prod.

I'll post hopefully soon.

[shaft.ed]

Korlash, you are a brave man. We understand the time it will take to get up to speed on this game. We have a lot of bloviators participating in this one.

Again I just wanted to say I'm double deadlined this week and LA as usual over the weekends. So I won't be posting original content until Monday at the earliest. If any interesting discussion points come up, I'll get a reply in for sure.

[dybeck]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them. We'll just lynch Korlash instead.