Mini Normal 1775 END!

[Lowell]

Okay that obviously satisfies me fully without reservation. Moving on, then.

[Riabi]

Riabi, do you have any comment on the Lowell wagon? If you think that Toasty's points are so telling, do you wonder why Toasty didn't vote?

I think the Lowell wagon has merit. I'm not totally convinced by it, but, I get it.

As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

At this point, anyone voting for smith I find suspicious as scum, since I a am 100% certain the smith is town. And if you ask me why, I'd have to try to prove some evidence which I will probably be told is irrelevant, so for now just take my word for it. I'm an extremely honest person.

I don't take anyone at their word about anything. I absolutely want to see your evidence. Also, I'd like to ask why you find it so compelling if you admit that others would not.

[heuristically_alone]

Other would not find it compelling due to the fact that I'm not very good yet at justifying my claims. Also, if I gave you my evidence, it would greatly put me at risk as being the night kill, and I value my life.

[Riabi]

Other would not find it compelling due to the fact that I'm not very good yet at justifying my claims. Also, if I gave you my evidence, it would greatly put me at risk as being the night kill, and I value my life.

Sounds like a bunch of bullshit to me.

If you've got evidence, and you're town, it's in the best interest of the town to share said evidence. Why all this stupid beating around the bush? Either you have evidence, and you're hurting the town by keeping it. Or you don't have any evidence, and you're playing some sort of stupid game to the detriment of the town. Which is it?

[Riabi]

...Also, if I gave you my evidence, it would greatly put me at risk as being the night kill, and I value my life.

I feel like I should address this point specifically. Barring any PRs doing their thing, there is going to be a NK, isn't it better to go out having done something to help find scum rather than to cower in fear of your life?

[mhsmith0]

Given CT and Exp's "lynch garmr" exits, that's where I'm leaning right now. Also, on pure math alone, if you presume that all players were equally likely to be any role (i.e. there was nothing suggestive in thread), then jailing Garmr meant that either CT jailed the killer or the target. So by random odds alone, Garmr would be about 50% to be the killer (it's exactly 50% if you assume that CT was not the target and that both killer and target were among the other 11 - it's slightly more than 50% if you account for the possibility that CT was the target).

I really don't want to vote just on that though, so I'm going to dig into the thread in more detail and see what I can find that is more useful. May not have much until the weekend though.

PS h_a, I'm also curious about your town read of me. Anything notable in thread that you picked up on? Gut read? I'd also note that it's a bit odd that you opened up with "anyone wolf reading MHS is suspicious", as opposed to waiting and seeing who would do that and then reacting (especially since the MHS voter pre your comment was the person who inherited Sakura's slot, which seems to be just about universally town read, as opposed to seeing if others piled on too). That may simply be a playstyle thing though.

[Dierfire]

All right, I'm trying to get it together.

I still think that associations with Boonskiies favor Lowell being lynched over Garmr.
PEDIT: I may have to check my calculations; I thought that the action by chilledtea only makes Garmr marginally more likely than random chance to be Mafia.

I find heuristically_alone a bit scattered here and probably need to read that slot again because I don't recall noticing anything significant from that slot.

[mhsmith0]

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

[Dierfire]

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

[Dierfire]

I get 11/23 but I acknowledge the point.

[mhsmith0]

On second thought, it's actually more complicated (the mafia clearly weren't going to be targets regardless of whether Garmr was killer or target)... but it's basically 50% is the important part.

[ToastyToast]

As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

I haven't decided if I think mhs or texcat is scummier. My brain tells me mhs but my gut says otherwise.

@mhsmith: Why did you ignore my post? Why have you "not voted" every lynch thus far?

[heuristically_alone]

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.

[heuristically_alone]

As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

I haven't decided if I think mhs or texcat is scummier. My brain tells me mhs but my gut says otherwise.

@mhsmith: Why did you ignore my post? Why have you "not voted" every lynch thus far?

Follow your gut. Toasts don't generally have brains. (just a joke, I'm sure you a super intelligent!)

[Dierfire]

I get 11/23 but I acknowledge the point.

Gah, I'm wrong again and mhsmith0 is right again. As chilledtea could not have been Mafia, Garmr had a baseline 1/11 (not 1/12) chance to be Mafia, giving a conditional probability of 12/23 rather than 11/23 (which also makes sense for the reasons that mhsmith0 gave).

[Dierfire]

One more correction, then I'm done: obviously I meant 3/11 and 3/12 there.

[Dierfire]

@heuristically_alone

Are you reading Garmr as Town or as Mafia?

[mhsmith0]

As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

I haven't decided if I think mhs or texcat is scummier. My brain tells me mhs but my gut says otherwise.

@mhsmith: Why did you ignore my post? Why have you "not voted" every lynch thus far?

Didn't all of them end early? That's my recollection. Digging into it:

Day 1: I wanted to vote Lowell. I even stated intent to hammer, 436. And the momentum shifted to madonna. And CT hammered (I was thinking about it, but wanted more time)
Day 2: Early hammer. I was part of the boon wagon, then he claimed, and I backed off. I started suspecting CT, voted him, and then he claimed. Then I unvoted, and then others voted boon ending day early.
Day 3: Stated intent to hammer on Exp in 1470, with 24 hour notice. h_a hammered first.

Out of curiosity, what is the narrative here that you're seeing? Or is this just "I skimmed vote #s, saw MHS was non-vote at all three EOD's, therefore suspicious"?

PS I personally think that A50 was either trying to draw an NK or was simply full of it. I'll confess to not knowing which, though my gut leans the latter.

PPS @dier: I think it's it's actually a bit weirder than that given presence of wolf-buddies, though the details really aren't important. "It's about 50%" is the bottom line conclusion.

[heuristically_alone]

@Dierfire
I keep going back and forth on Garmr. I voted Garmr earlier, than switched to Lowell.
More than anything I found this interesting and have been trying to make my read on it:

smith is scum, and dierfire could be as well. garmr I hope is, as my pride demands I attack him.

I feel pretty good about you and smith not being scum, which greatly increases my suspicion in Lowell. The question is if some mild bussing is going on, or if garmr and Lowell are on different alliances (or if they are both town accusing each other.

As of now I think I'm scum leaning on Lowell and Garmr... If we get a successful lynch today, I feel really confident in the town's win.

[mhsmith0]

In other news, toasty is town.

Riabi probably not

.

Why "probably not" for Riabi? Given that he inherited Sakura's position (her treatment of boon was insanely aggressive for bussing IMO), that seems like a surprising read.

[Garmr]

In other news, toasty is town.

Riabi probably not

.

Why "probably not" for Riabi? Given that he inherited Sakura's position (her treatment of boon was insanely aggressive for bussing IMO), that seems like a surprising read.

I can agree with this. Sakura/Riabi slot is strongest town read.

[texcat]

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.

Doesn't that depend on whether Garmr is town or scum? Couldn't scum use numbers to try to get a town Garmr lynched?

[Lowell]

In other news, toasty is town.

Riabi probably not

.

Why "probably not" for Riabi? Given that he inherited Sakura's position (her treatment of boon was insanely aggressive for bussing IMO), that seems like a surprising read.

Oh yeah, didn't realize who he replaced. I do think he's town then. Good, that makes garmr more likely scum then.

The math is on my side now, gang. Let's win this battle against garmr!

[Garmr]

But these random stats are pretty much useless because we are not random machines we use are brains.
That maths process doesn't account for scums motivations to kill.

-Day 1 I was town read by the majority
-scum could of been hunting for power roles.
-my veiws may of conflicted with scum
- I could of been targeted to frame someone


There are heaps of factors that increase the chance of me being shot. Those Statistics are only reliable if you have a bunch of random machines playing.

[Lowell]

For all our bluster and self-confidence, I would dispute the notion that we are other than a bunch of random machines playing.