Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[dybeck]

Could you restate your arguments for Orig being vig please?

Because all I'm seeing is desperate attempts to get me lynched.

[vollkan]

Could you restate your arguments for Orig being vig please?

Because all I'm seeing is desperate attempts to get me lynched.

Why Dybeck is Wrong Regarding Originality Being Obvious Scum

[/b]
First up, I do not believe Originality is a certain vig. I said just before, I am 65% thinking he is scum. My problem is with your stubbornness here in continually raising bad arguments for Orig being scum and ignoring my rebuttal and my arguments to the contrary.

"But Orig killed CC" [/b]
1) Vigs make stupid mistakes. I've seen stupidity from vigs before
2) CC was not obv town. I would not have vigged her, certainly. But, she was not an active contributor and if I felt suspicious of her I might well have vigged her.

"Vig is the safest claim for a SK/Mafia in Orig's position"

If SK,
You need to survive. Thus, claiming vig, the most likely role for mafia to try and NK, is suicidal and therefore very very unlikely.

A RB claim, however, would be safer. True, RBs can be scum, but a lynch would not have been certain if he claimed RB. A NK would be very unlikely given the significant greater risk of a tracker (AlyG)

Elias's argument about how he might have claimed vig since at least that way he could obey the town is not very good because

a lynch would be uncertain if you did not carry out the town's will because it would be impossible to verify unless you were ordered RB a doctor and that doctor's target was NKed or similarly if you were ordered to RB a cop and they got a result. Whereas, NK is almost guaranteed with a vig claim.

If mafia,
Orig might claim vig, I concede, to determine whether or not there is a vig or a SK (ie. by testing for counter-claims) but I really do not think that a mafioso would take this sort of risk when a comparatively safe RB claim was there.

It is, of course, possible that SK/Mafia Orig just didn't think through this as I have and that he claimed vig as a complete blunder.

For these reasons, I do not think we can state he is obv scum.

The best arguments I see pointing to Orig being scum are these by Elias:

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum.

Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.
vote: originality

See, the fact that Orig seeks to use CC's death against AlyG is VERY interesting. It is the most stupid sort of tactic scum can do (the wifom in relying on NKs as arguments is something all know about). One bout of stupidity would correspond with him claiming vig in stupidity and his latest weird stuff

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I'll admit here a major concern which has been considerably exacerbated since Elias started and since I have begun analysing all of this dybeck v Orig in more detail:
That I may be analysing Orig by my own standards of behaviour. If we take everything collectively and import a certain standard of newbishness to him, I am almost inclined to call him fairly obvious scum and I might almost be inclined to vote for him.

On the flip side, if I imagine him thinking this thing through, his actions in claiming make no sense for scum.

See, the only thing I see as supporting Orig being vig is the fact that he claimed vig (as stupid as that sounds). If he had claimed RB, I think I would actually have slapped my vote on him (and doesn't this just enter complete and utter wifom!)

I really think we need to look at Orig more seriously in light of this and I would appreciate some commentary on my way of thinking about this little hurdle.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #24!

Since all players are here, I

might

make a deadline because I think Day 2 has gone on way too long

Oman (3) - Gemelli, shaft.ed, AlyG
dybeck (3) - vollkan, originality, Oman
originality (2) - dybeck, Elias_the_Thief

Not voting: Lucienne

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[originality]

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

No offence meant. But I have a better gut for finding scum than you.

Oh really. Strange that you condemn me mostly for having a gut feeling against carrotcake, which you made seem like something you wouldn't belive in.

And Elias,

Shit shit shit. I had a huge post ligned up but my computer died. Don't worry, this isnt an excuse to get out of content. But it will be less content.

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...
Anyways, moving on, I find his claim that he had a gut feeling against CC even less likely when you look at this post (344) directly after night scene is revealed.

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum. Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.

vote: originality

As if I'd let suspicion fall into me from my kill. I suspected carrotcake since the beginning, but didn't want to say anything D1 otherwise it would have been obvious who killed him last night. And for the record, yes it is my first game on the site.

And those two posts I made were also to make seem as if I didn't know what was going on. Pretty routine if you ask me. By the way, if I was the SK I'd want the town to think that there was a vig, to not draw attention to the fact that there is an SK, duh. I was just going on with the idea at the time, if I went HAY GUISE PRETTY SURE ITS NOT AN SK ITS A VIG it would totally mark me out for the scum.

[Gemelli]

Limited availability today, so please excuse typos etc. due to rushed post.

The thing is, that I find it scummy when people say "Any objections to me hammering?" I am much more comfortable with "Is this lynch appropriate?" or something to that effect (though I realise that this is now voided for this game because I have revealed my preference).

OK, I get it. To me, both questions are mechanically identical, though semantically different.

The former ("objections") I do not like because it is effectively trying to deny blame IMHO. Of course, a scum would be idiotic to say "But none of you objected!" but the point is that at some level this seeks to reduce the person's individual culpability.

You've completely misunderstood me.

I asked dybeck to point out another SK candidate because he had said that Oman was obvmafia with Orig whereas before he was saying Oman was SK. That has no bearing on my own view.

No, I understood that. But I found it disengenuous that you were continuing to press Dybeck with a question that you had already answered to your own apparent satisfaction earlier in the thread. I can see this as a scumhunting tactic, but the number of times you repeated the question -- and the urgency that you seemed to be placing on his answering it -- struck me as odd.

I don't follow you...Are you saying it is ironic that I am saying that townies should never be 100% certain?

No, and FWIW I agree with the principle. I was saying that it was ironic that you chose to use the absolute term "never" when arguing that townies should avoid absolutes.

I know that if Oman is lynched and comes up scum, I will very likely be accused also, but that is not going to alter my behaviour.

Fair enough. I'm in the same boat with dybeck, so I sympathize. I'm just trying to look at the notable relationships I've seen among players in the game, and commenting on them as they occur to me.

I want to add that I have found your posts to be well-reasoned and logical throughout the game. If I am pushing on you a bit lately, it's because I have read games where you played as scum, and you come across just as well-reasoned and logical in them. I feel that I was falling into a trust pattern a little early in the game, and have since decided to challenge my own earlier preconceptions and test new hypotheses.

WRT the most recent posts, they seem to boil down to a few key points:

* Dybeck has tended to use loaded terms like "obvious," "100%," and "positive" in stating his opinions.
* When Dybeck changes his mind on a given point, he does not post retractions or even "I've changed my mind." He shifts to a newly-certain stance on the new position without comment.
* Dybeck has stayed focused on Originality through most of D2 and failed to comment on other players until very recently. He has switched from arguing that he is a SK to arguing that he is mafia.

All of the evidence vollkan's posted seems to fall into those three categories. Is that a fair summary?

I'll admit here a major concern which has been considerably exacerbated since Elias started and since I have begun analysing all of this dybeck v Orig in more detail:
That I may be analysing Orig by my own standards of behaviour. If we take everything collectively and import a certain standard of newbishness to him, I am almost inclined to call him fairly obvious scum and I might almost be inclined to vote for him.

It's a good point, and one that I raised myself way back in post 609. I'm shaking my head that that post was one of the reasons you stated in post 663 for putting me at #3 on your suspect list. Adopt, adapt, and improve, I suppose.

[shaft.ed]

Still don't have time for a content post, but I wanted to repost my arguments against Oman sicne Elias has asked. And I find it very painful that we are getting more of the same, dybeck is still twising people's words about while Oman is still pretty much ignoring everything and hoping this day will just blow over. And I still don't know which I find more scummy. Leaving my vote on Oman due to the stubborn townie interpretation of dybeck's play. Will post full content sometime Monday if I'm lucky.

Two main cases against Oman:

The Recent Oman Gaffe

Aye, you guys did fall off my radar, I was working too hard on my mini-essay and so I was playing in the games most requiring my attention.

The town here is strong

, and we have lots of players, plus activity is high so this took a back seat (all my C9s got priority ).

Sorry to do it to you,

the idea was that you'd catch scum without me

. I'm going to bed now, (0400) but tomorrow this is my first game I promise

So Oman doesn't post for a while. And understandably states that he was very busy. I totally believe this, he's in a lot of games and a thought out Discussion Thread was posted by him in the interim. But I have issues with the above statement especially the bolded portions.

Rephrased later as:

No its, "we need to find scum, other games cannot do it without me, but teh town here is strong enoiugh without my input".

So in Oman's view the town had been hunting scum very well especially it's active posters (assuming he means vollkan, Gemelli and myself but I'll leave that for him to clarify). This statement was made after his hiatus starting on Sept. 29th, before that he had been quite active in the thread. Let's see how the town was doing at hunting scum, specifically Oman scum:

Oman

: One of the most active players. On day 1, most vote/suspicion posts were directed at pro-town players (myself, VH/ryan, spurgistan, Carrotcake). Tended to support originality day 1, has distanced himself from him starting at (I think) post 434. Has been a frequent vote-hopper day 2, often following up another vote for that player as a bandwagoneer. Currently dividing his attention between dybeck and Elias, with occasional shots at originality. My odds on him:

80% scum

(50% mafia, 30% SK), 20% town.

My final thoughts:
I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.

I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess

my suspicion falls back to

the second person who has raised my eyebrows today:

Oman

.

I also am suspicious of Oman's Vote hopping and bandwagonning. His votehopping has been very frequent during the course of this day and he always seems to be following up other peoples suspicions as a bandwagoner.

Oman: Started off the game with a very odd maneuver using tiny white text. This got him off on the wrong foot with me. Did some meta'ing and felt this was pretty normal for his playstyle. He set fine with me most of yesterday. While he did get a bit overzealous with ryan yesterday, I pretty much agreed with the reasoning behind the bandwagon that ryan should be pressured for trying to bully dybeck. Since ryan turned out to be an ass, we really got nothing from that bandwagon. Today Oman has been all over the place. Basically any time someone makes a point or places a vote Oman swings his position and says "yeah yeah that's the ticket vote whoever was just mentioned." This is reallyl making me uneasy with him and as of now I'd be most comfortable with an Oman lynch.

*Post ranked Oman as most scummy player

Scummy

Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%
...
My 3 suspects are:
1) Dybeck
2) Oman
3) Gemelli

vote: Oman

That being said, my #1 and #2 choices (

for vig'ing

) would be Oman and Elias

Oman -- 75% scum odds

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

Oman: - Probably in my eyes the most scummy player in the game. he has been bandwagonning the whole game. Whenever somene changes their vote and throws around suspicion he is always there to follow-up and always votes for the same person straight away. he is a big vote hopper and always jumps on the person getting suspicion. He seems to be trying to keep pressure on other players which is scummy. her are some examples of bandwagoning:

Long list of examples in post 676

My list as of now is

1. No Kill
2. dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias

To clarify - my main suspicion is Oman. Reasons - major flip-flopping and bandwagonning.

My list:

1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. dybeck
4. Elias

Sigh...

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

Ok my list:

1) No Kill
2) Dybeck
3) Oman
4) Meh...Elias

AlyG thank you very very much for pointing out Oman adding you to his list. Listing a confirmed tracker for NK is just ludicrous.

vote:Oman

...
I'd like to revise my vig list:
1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. Elias
4. dybeck

My list:
1. No Kill
2. Dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias (though well below the others).
...
Wha..!?! You want the confirmed tracker NKed.

Increase HoS on Oman

...
At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today.

Despite how dreadfully he worded this; I think Oman is trying to argue that the fact that he has now replaced AlyG with Lucienne is entirely independent of the fact that he has been called out for having AlyG on his list.

I believe the most appropriate term is "back-pedalling".

So if the town's been so good at scum hunting, and you've been the primary/secondary target of most of us posters, are you trying to say that we're correct in thinking you are scum?

The bandwagoning history of Oman on D2.

So Oman starts to day with a vote on AlyG, a person he supported D1, quickly following vollkan's first post and ode to hurting AlyG.

Vote swings over to dybeck after his attempts at framing me for SK with a single tell don't go over so well.

Unvotes dybeck, then switches back to AlyG since we need to be more safe about the voting due to being in possible LyLo (yeah moving from a person with your 1 sole vote to someone with 2 is really safe).

Unvotes AlyG after the claim. Then immediately revotes after reading the scumminess of the claim post.

Unvotes AlyG after orig's claim.

Votes dybeck the exact post after vollkan's vote

Switches vote to orig after playing with maths (interesting that vollkan follows suit here).

Vollkan votes Oman for calling orig the SK with poor logic.

Unvotes saying it's very soon going back to dybeck or AlyG

Vollkan unvotes and switches to dybeck. The very next post (again) Oman follows suit.

I vote Elias for constant lurking in order to get him to post. The next time Oman posts in thread he votes Elias (seriously do you have a posting restriction or something?).

Oman then unvotes when vollkan points out that Elias stated he wouldn't be pressured.

Then the Oman attacks quoted above come into play calling him out for all these following votes.

And I also find his recent "whoops I was supposed to be voting for dybeck" more of the same faux-sloppy play to make it look like he's just not paying attention.

[shaft.ed]

Elias, Quick question about your orig position. Are you considering the likliehood of his cross-fire NK in your voting? If he's mafia, he's auto-dead due to SK, if he's SK he will be a very juicy target regardless of his trusted standing within the town. I really think his likelihood of being NK'd and his ability to draw mafia attention away from our confirmed tracker for the night, make the SK/vig alignment question a moot point for today.

[shaft.ed]

OK vollkan, you have been on the top of my townie list all day long, but your recent posts are very troubling to me. This post is pretty much an affirmation of what Gemelli has been stating recently, but I wanted to put my opinion on the matter our there.

My uneasiness started with this post where a 're-read' triggered a new interpretation of dybeck's earlier post.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

Confirm Vote: dybeck

When I was reading this I was seriously picturing a gentile Southern lady fainting with her hand on her forehead following some transgression of manners. This really felt like an overdone attempt at riling up some momentum for a dybeck lynch.

What really stood out to me was that it immediately follows Oman's content-free vote for dybeck. And it follows this quote

At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote.

where, you're waiting for Oman to "check in" and note this comes immediately after the dybeck post that all the sudden is "chronically setting off all sorts of bells."

You've also managed to completely ignored Oman's incredibly sketchy vote for dybeck. in fact to this moment you have yet to even comment on it.

In fact you've even attempted to cover for him.

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

I've been playing with you in two games for two months now and have never seen you cover for anybody except Dr. BS who understandably needed covering. Importantly there was actual evidence to back up your statements defending Dr. BS. But this comment was quickly shot down by Gemelli a couple posts later.

Then your recent back and forth with dybeck contains really weird slip-ups like:

2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still. There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?

You've already called him scummy on many occasions for maintaining his desire to lynch orig. Now he is scummy because he didn't maintain his desire to lynch orig?

So to conclude, I know these slip-ups are very minor compared to things that dybeck and Oman are consistently doing, but I've come to know vollkan plays at a higher level than this. These moves just don't compute in my mind. I'm a bit worried now of an Oman/vollkan scum pairing, but at least vollkan has been open in stating this is a possibility due to his recent play. I guess what it comes down to is

IGMEOY

I dont think I have time right now, but I'd like to also get an analysis of dybeck's recent play. He's back to his usual uncomfortable playstyle.

And Oman any time you'd like to defend yourself from my post that was made

8

days ago, I'd love to hear it.

[vollkan]

No, I understood that. But I found it disengenuous that you were continuing to press Dybeck with a question that

you had already answered

to your own apparent satisfaction earlier in the thread. I can see this as a scumhunting tactic, but the number of times you repeated the question -- and the urgency that you seemed to be placing on his answering it -- struck me as odd.

Do you mean that "I had already answered" or that "dybeck had already answered"?

Either way, my rationale for asking dybeck was simple: I suspected he was being opportunistic in going after Oman once he was assured that Orig would likely pose no threat to him.

I want to add that I have found your posts to be well-reasoned and logical throughout the game. If I am pushing on you a bit lately, it's because I have read games where you played as scum, and you come across just as well-reasoned and logical in them. I feel that I was falling into a trust pattern a little early in the game, and have since decided to challenge my own earlier preconceptions and test new hypotheses.

That's fine. I have been wondering for a while now about how long it will take for someone in one of my games to do a meta-check on me and realise that, for some bizarre reason, I never seem to get suspected no matter what my alignment.

* Dybeck has tended to use loaded terms like "obvious," "100%," and "positive" in stating his opinions.
* When Dybeck changes his mind on a given point, he does not post retractions or even "I've changed my mind." He shifts to a newly-certain stance on the new position without comment.
* Dybeck has stayed focused on Originality through most of D2 and failed to comment on other players until very recently.

He has switched from arguing that he is a SK to arguing that he is mafia.

All of the evidence vollkan's posted seems to fall into those three categories. Is that a fair summary?

The bolded bit is wrong. Dybeck never did that. It was the fault of a typo of mine.

The rest is pretty accurate for the recent stuff. Let me explain my read of it:
The use of certain terms is something I associate with haste. Dybeck is "100% sure" and "positive" about this. The purpose of such words is to make your opinion stronger and, presumably, to persuade others. I tend to always use "likely" / "probably" and it is very rare that I will be definite on things, because I see certainty as something which no townie should have.

The mind changing is something that bugs me for the simple reason that there was no need for him to change. He could have kept pushing Orig if he was so sure (as well as actually dealing with my arguments and rebuttal); there was no deadline. Instead, once Orig's NK is gone, he jumps over to Oman who he thought was the SK until fairly recently (remember, dybeck was adamant about not lynching the SK).

It's a good point, and one that I raised myself way back in post 609. I'm shaking my head that that post was one of the reasons you stated in post 663 for putting me at #3 on your suspect list. Adopt, adapt, and improve, I suppose.

Er...my #663 was

Crossed with Gemelli.

Gemelli wrote:

To the best of my knowledge, there is typically a very small window for discussion during twilight, correct? I'd feel better about the setup if we had more time to discuss, even if the final decision isn't made until twilight.


No decision should be made in my opinion. We can (and I have) directed Orig to our most desired candidates but we should not give him an absolute instruction.

Gem wrote:

Vollkan wrote:

Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia.

This assumes, of course, that Orig is NOT mafia. I am still not convinced that that's a safe bet, although the fact that he's willing to let us direct his action tonight means that we should know one way or the other tomorrow morning.


I refuse to support directing Orig. If he is mafia, there is a hidden SK who can only hope to succeed here by defeating the mafia.

Gem wrote:

Totally understandable, as I've said. I'm holding out some hope that this feeling is based primarily on my predecessor's play. I've tried my best to be an active scumhunter for the team. If something *I've* posted rings false/scummy, I'd appreciate hearing about what, specifically, it is.


Mostly your predecessor. And some of this stuff regarding Orig.

Gem wrote:

I am still not swayed by the arguments against Dybeck


What specifically? Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK. If he is mafia, he has motivations for both. His reasoning is deeply flawed and, as such, it looks like he is grasping to get rid of Orig.

I don't see where you mention your own standards....

Now, shaft.ed:

My uneasiness started with this post where a 're-read' triggered a new interpretation of dybeck's earlier post.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

Confirm Vote: dybeck

When I was reading this I was seriously picturing a gentile Southern lady fainting with her hand on her forehead following some transgression of manners. This really felt like an overdone attempt at riling up some momentum for a dybeck lynch.

What really stood out to me was that it immediately follows Oman's content-free vote for dybeck. And it follows this quote

At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote.

where, you're waiting for Oman to "check in" and note this comes immediately after the dybeck post that all the sudden is "chronically setting off all sorts of bells."

You've also managed to completely ignored Oman's incredibly sketchy vote for dybeck. in fact to this moment you have yet to even comment on it.

I did exactly what I said I did: I reread dybeck's post and had problems with it. I know how it looks, but I really don't care because my explanation for my behaviour was true and the points on dybeck are wholly valid.

I never said "I will change my vote if Oman does not post to my satisfaction". I simple said I wanted to hear from him before I would consider doing anything. Oman came, I read his post, then I read dybeck's, then I posted.

As for my non-mention of Oman's vote; it has been deliberate. I've been waiting for him to post regarding it before I step in. Since it has now been raised by you (like I should have thought otherwise) I will now explain my actions.

The reason is this:
I have made that same error myself in other games as town and scum and I have usually had to cover it up by re-posting suspicions to justify another vote. Oman just came out and said he had messed up. I did not want to say this and jeopardise your case against Oman for his vote (which I entirely agree with), since he could then just rely on what I had said.

In fact you've even attempted to cover for him.

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

I've been playing with you in two games for two months now and have never seen you cover for anybody except Dr. BS who understandably needed covering. Importantly there was actual evidence to back up your statements defending Dr. BS. But this comment was quickly shot down by Gemelli a couple posts later.

I had not actually checked Oman's recent posts thing. I was judging by his inactivity in another game I am in with him and his relative inactivity (relative to how much he usually posts).

You've already called him scummy on many occasions for maintaining his desire to lynch orig. Now he is scummy because he didn't maintain his desire to lynch orig?

Yes. I think dybeck's case on Orig is complete garbage, but if he was sincere about it he would at least stick to his guns. I suspected him well enough when he was pushing his Orig line, but his switch to being prepared to hammer Oman compounded on it.

So to conclude, I know these slip-ups are very minor compared to things that dybeck and Oman are consistently doing, but I've come to know vollkan plays at a higher level than this. These moves just don't compute in my mind. I'm a bit worried now of an Oman/vollkan scum pairing, but at least vollkan has been open in stating this is a possibility due to his recent play. I guess what it comes down to is IGMEOY

I don't think I have slipped up at all. I fully understand that my actions could be construed as scummy and that if Oman comes up scum I will very likely be tied to him. As I have been saying consistently, I am suspicious of Oman and would be happy with his lynch. However, it would be wrong of me to let this day end without persisting in analyzing dybeck and orig because I strongly believe one of those 3 is scum. I have been playing to par with my usual standards and everything I have done has been deliberate.

[Elias_the_thief]

As if I'd let suspicion fall into me from my kill. I suspected carrotcake since the beginning, but didn't want to say anything D1 otherwise it would have been obvious who killed him last night. And for the record, yes it is my first game on the site.

I quite simply dont believe this. If you suspected him, theres not way you'd avoid mentioning it just so you can NK him. And even if you did, that seems very anti town (trying to get the kill without any discussion).

And those two posts I made were also to make seem as if I didn't know what was going on. Pretty routine if you ask me.

If you didnt want attention, why did you address those two (non)issues at all? No one else was talkgin about them.

By the way, if I was the SK I'd want the town to think that there was a vig, to not draw attention to the fact that there is an SK, duh.

wifom much?

I was just going on with the idea at the time, if I went HAY GUISE PRETTY SURE ITS NOT AN SK ITS A VIG it would totally mark me out for the scum.

Why would you say anything about it at all as vig? Theres no reason for a vig to go out of their way to cover their tracks when they could just avoid the issue.

[Elias_the_thief]

sorry about not addressing more recent stuff, I left my house mid post and wanted to finish that up. I might post again tonight, too.

[vollkan]

Now a follow-up to Orig's most recent post:

1

As if I'd let suspicion fall into me from my kill. I suspected carrotcake since the beginning, but didn't want to say anything D1 otherwise it would have been obvious who killed him last night.

2

And for the record, yes it is my first game on the site.

3

And those two posts I made were also to make seem as if I didn't know what was going on. Pretty routine if you ask me.

4

By the way, if I was the SK I'd want the town to think that there was a vig, to not draw attention to the fact that there is an SK, duh. I was just going on with the idea at the time, if I went HAY GUISE PRETTY SURE ITS NOT AN SK ITS A VIG it would totally mark me out for the scum.

1) If you were so suspicious of CC that you were prepared to kill her N1 why would you even consider distancing yourself from it? This doesn't make sense at all
2) Excellent. 75% and a

FoS

3) Alright. If you were vig, you would want to fly under the radar. I can see a newb vig doing this, but it is still distancing from the kill.
4) Oh yuck; an "If I were a...". Elias is right "wifom much?"

[AlyG]

Sorry for my absence guys i'll be able to be active again by tomorrow.

[Gemelli]

Do you mean that "I had already answered" or that "dybeck had already answered"?

I meant that you seemed to have determined YOUR OWN answer to that question prior to asking it. I'm not seeing how his answer would have affected your view of his opportunism.

I don't see where you mention your own standards....

Sorry, should have quoted the relevant pieces of the posts.

Where I originally put forward the idea that origMafia may have claimed vig due to a rushed decision:

One scenario that I think should be considered was that orig targetted CC as a mafia or (less likely) SK, and then simply made a rushed decision on how to respond once AlyG revealed the targetting. In other words, let's not assume that players in the game always make the perfect decisions.

I posted a few more times after this, trying to understand the case vs. dybeck and continuing to explain why I found orig scummy. The next time you posted, you said:

My thoughts for now:
My 3 suspects are:
1) Dybeck
2) Oman
3) Gemelli

Then when I asked you to verify your rationale for putting me at #3:

Mostly your predecessor.

And some of this stuff regarding Orig.

It's not a major deal by any means. I was mostly laughing quietly to myself that the stance I took at the start of the game got me branded as possibly scummy, and now we're all discussing it as a likely scenario. I know that much of your suspicion came from me questioning the case vs dybeck, but it was that piece of your post that came back to me after Elias's post spurred the latest discussion tangent.

It probably doesn't bear further discussion unless you have questions for me about it. These are the things I find funny when sleep deprivation is in the house.

[vollkan]

I meant that you seemed to have determined YOUR OWN answer to that question prior to asking it. I'm not seeing how his answer would have affected your view of his opportunism.

Oh okay, I follow you now.

His answer was important to me because I wanted to know whether he had simply moved Oman from SK to mafia without giving any thought to the players outside of Oman and Orig. It was a continuation of my problem with his singular focus. Orig was now crippled so I was trying to work out if dybeck was actively hunting or if he simply moving to the next easiest target. If he had given a full explanation of who he thought was the next likely SK, I would not have minded.

Sorry, should have quoted the relevant pieces of the posts.

Where I originally put forward the idea that origMafia may have claimed vig due to a rushed decision:
...
It's not a major deal by any means. I was mostly laughing quietly to myself that the stance I took at the start of the game got me branded as possibly scummy, and now we're all discussing it as a likely scenario. I know that much of your suspicion came from me questioning the case vs dybeck, but it was that piece of your post that came back to me after Elias's post spurred the latest discussion tangent.

The thing is, when you said it was a rushed decision, I couldn't see any evidence for Orig being likely to make such mistakes.

Elias has now brought up those few really bizarre posts by Orig which suggest that he may have been making poor decisions.

So, whilst the opinion you gave looks more valid to me now, at the time I didn't see enough cause to think it probable.

[originality]

Elias, those were the subjects going around at the time. I don't just ignore things that I'd rather not talk about, like our friend dybeck here does.

Also, remember when AlyG didn't say a word against me till his claim? Yea, thats the same thing happening. We didn't want attention to our roles.

[vollkan]

1

Elias, those were the subjects going around at the time. I don't just ignore things that I'd rather not talk about, like our friend dybeck here does.

2

Also, remember when AlyG didn't say a word against me till his claim? Yea, thats the same thing happening. We didn't want attention to our roles.

1)

If you didnt want attention, why did you address those two (non)issues at all? No one else was talkgin about them.

And now

Elias, those were the subjects going around at the time.

These two are plainly at odds with each other. Nobody was talking specifically about who had committed the NKs; they were non-issues. Obviously, they were important, but Orig is patently wrong to say that they were the "subjects" as justification for his weird "distancing from the kill" posts.

I don't like the way Orig tries to segue this whole thing back to dybeck either...It looks like he is trying to get the heat off himself and back onto dybeck.

2) No power role wants to be identified; that's very true. However, your posts suggested that you didn't find CC suspicious. Indeed, you said:

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

[originality]

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

I don't get what your trying to say there. Yes, it was a smokescreen thing, that's what I've been saying.

[vollkan]

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. [You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

I don't get what your trying to say there.

Yes, it was a smokescreen

thing, that's what I've been saying.

I think you just slipped
Let me explain:

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him...

So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

If it was a smokescreen, you never pointed this out to us. When the issue of why you killed Orig was raised, you simply said that you killed CC on a "gut feeling" without referring to these earlier statements and explaining what this was all about.

If you had said those things as a brilliant maneuver to distance yourself from CC's death, you would certainly have thought to have explained them when you were making up why you chose to kill CC. That's what I meant by "you NEVER retracted".

The AlyG thing is important. If this was a smokescreen tactic, the LAST thing you should have done is attempt to use it to embroil another player in suspicion. That is completely anti-town because you are effectively fabricating evidence.

Now, it is true that you then went off on a Dr. B tangent and dropped blaming AlyG, but then later in #389 you said again:

Alright. I dunno about AlyG, it seems the major thing against him is the carrotcake bit, and other then that you guys are pretty much just making stuff up.

When you finally got outed you said:

I claimed carrotcake's death must have scared a scum to get suspicion off me. It was damn obvious carrotcake didn't scare anyone.

I didn't find Oman suspicious. He wasn't. He seems pretty town to me. As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

Here you admit that that you said Carrot was scum to get suspicion off yourself (*blink* Why would we suspect YOU for that?)and you clearly just bypass what you were trying to do wrt AlyG.

[dybeck]

I feel like I should be going "Yeah! See!" but I don't understand.

[vollkan]

Shocked

I feel like I should be going "Yeah! See!" but I don't understand.

Don't you get cocky for an instant. It's precisely that your case was so dodgy, repetitive and narrow that I am doing this now.

Let me explain:
Elias's stuff put a new spin on things for me and made realise that, by and large, we have let Orig get off rather lightly for many things. Furthermore, Orig's latest posts have been ringing bells for me. As such, I am subjecting him to a patented

interrigation

[sic]. If he is scum, I intend to scrape it up

[Elias_the_thief]

questions about dybeck case...

Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.

Whoa. That is wierd. But I'm not sure its a scumtell. Scum wouldnt have knowledge on who's sk, and what advantage does scum have in trying to bring attention to one of the least suspicious players?

2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything

Town should have preference on killing mafia, obviously, since 2 mafia 1 townie is an autoloss, while 1 sk 1 mafia 1 town isnt necessarily a loss. So I dunno. This seems like a nulltell to me.

3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.

That's true. Hypothetically, if Dybeck were mafia, he would know that he did not make the kill on CC, therefore making Orig vig or SK, both something the mafia would want to eliminate as soon as possible.

4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon

Certainly wierd. Scumtell? I'm not sure. Did he ever address this point?

5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)

I'm confused... 1) Was he arguing he was mafia or SK, and 2) what were those 3 arguments?

6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.

That's not too bad. Town wants that just as much as scum at this point.

7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia

Very scummy. It supports my hypothesizing about your third point.

8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)

Hrm. Dont know what to think of this one. Elaboration would be helpful.

(I renumbered your post for my convenience)

9) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

I need to understand the context of this. Post #'s? Right now, it looks like you put an unfair burden on him at the time.

10.) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

Bad town play or obvious scum play. It could be either. Thus I say unto you: wifom.

11) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

Wierd. Did he respond to this? Also, post # please.

12) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

Maybe. Unless he wants to survive the next day in town. IF by some miracle he survives (the scum could play wifom with the doc and end up getting no kill, or killing someone else entirely) then his kill will assure his lynch the next day. No, if I had claimed vig as sk, I would definately follow their directions.

13) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

I dunno. I dont use fosses too often myself. If he has expressed suspicion today, theres not reason that he HAS to use an fos. So I guess its kind of a tell, but I dont think its too strong.

14) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

Hmm. Normally I dont see certainty as a scum tell (look at just completed 486 where I was certain hermit was scum, and we were both town). However, in relation to point 3 and 7 is pretty suspect.

Anyways, this is not supposed to be a defense. I'm responding to it because:
1) I didnt really understand the case, and I still need some confirmation
2) I haven't really seen anyone challenge the case besides Dybeck, who is a relative noob. I'd like to see how it stands up to closer scrutiny
3) I'd like to see if it's a good enough case that I'd be willing to put my vote behind. At this point, I dont think I would.

[dybeck]

Relative noob???

Relative to whom????

[Elias_the_thief]

er, incorrect. I dont think I meant to say that.
Anything you want to say about the rest of what I said?

[Elias_the_thief]

although, out of curiousity, what is your number of total games (completed + ongoing) because I think I might actually have you beat.
Mine is 19 (15 completed, 4 ongoing).