Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Elias_the_thief]

I see that no replacement was ever found for me. 2 of my games have ended and 1 was abandoned. I have also reread up to page 30. I'm willing to replace back into my old spot.

[vollkan]

I see that no replacement was ever found for me. 2 of my games have ended and 1 was abandoned. I have also reread up to page 30. I'm willing to replace back into my old spot.

Heh. I just posted over in that replacement thread asking you to come back and now you have. I'm willing to have you back in.

[AlyG]

I see that no replacement was ever found for me. 2 of my games have ended and 1 was abandoned. I have also reread up to page 30. I'm willing to replace back into my old spot.

OMG OMG!!!!!! YAY! I get my Elias Input! w00t! *huggles Elias*

[Elias_the_thief]

I have to wait for approval from streetflo before posting anything.

[Streeflo]

Elias_the_Thief

has replaced

Elias_the_Thief

Welcome back to the game!

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #23!

Oman (3) - Gemelli, shaft.ed, AlyG
dybeck (3) - vollkan, originality, Oman
originality (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, Elias_the_Thief

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[dybeck]

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

No offence meant. But I have a better gut for finding scum than you. the evidence is all there in my posts, and my maths is good. I'm afraid that you've let the fact that you don't like me blind you to the idea that I might be town, which in turn has blinded you to the fact that i could be right about orig's claim. If you read back with an open mind, you might even see.

2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still.

Oh what a great idea! I never thought about pushing for Orig's lynch! Maybe I didn't make it very clear at any point so far, but Orig is scum and needs to be lynched. However, this town has made it abundantly clear that they have no interest in lynching Orig today. If I can't get a lynch on the man i'm 100% on, I'll settle for the man I'm 80% on.

There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?

You'd be surprised how, after yelling "ORIGINALITY US SCUM AND WE NEED TO LYNCH HIM" in every way you know how, FOR 30 PAGES, how much you don't feel the need to carry on.

3) The Lucienne thing (from above): Where do I fit in all of this? You have me as your 3. NK preference above Lucienne. It doesn't make sense that you would peg her as the candidate despite you not favouring her NK over me.

I don't know. I think you're possibly the third mafioso. Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Oman is at L-2. Your vote will not kill him. Rather than waiting for objections, explain to me why you think that it makes more sense to kill Oman than Orig (who you are "100%" certain of).

At risk of repeating myself, but yes I agree. It doesn't make more sense at all. We should be lynching Originality for being clear scum. However, Oman is probably scum too. I'm sorry that I'm the only one that sees any merit in lynching originality, but after 30 pages, I give in. I've managed to neuter him for tonight, having made him promise there'll be no more strangulations, and I'm going to have to settle for that.


And hey Elias, welcome back!! I thought you were gone forever

[vollkan]

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

No offence meant. But I have a better gut for finding scum than you. the evidence is all there in my posts, and my maths is good. I'm afraid that you've let the fact that you don't like me blind you to the idea that I might be town, which in turn has blinded you to the fact that i could be right about orig's claim. If you read back with an open mind, you might even see.

2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still.

Oh what a great idea! I never thought about pushing for Orig's lynch! Maybe I didn't make it very clear at any point so far, but Orig is scum and needs to be lynched. However, this town has made it abundantly clear that they have no interest in lynching Orig today. If I can't get a lynch on the man i'm 100% on, I'll settle for the man I'm 80% on.

There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?

You'd be surprised how, after yelling "ORIGINALITY US SCUM AND WE NEED TO LYNCH HIM" in every way you know how, FOR 30 PAGES, how much you don't feel the need to carry on.

3) The Lucienne thing (from above): Where do I fit in all of this? You have me as your 3. NK preference above Lucienne. It doesn't make sense that you would peg her as the candidate despite you not favouring her NK over me.

I don't know. I think you're possibly the third mafioso. Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Oman is at L-2. Your vote will not kill him. Rather than waiting for objections, explain to me why you think that it makes more sense to kill Oman than Orig (who you are "100%" certain of).

At risk of repeating myself, but yes I agree. It doesn't make more sense at all. We should be lynching Originality for being clear scum. However, Oman is probably scum too. I'm sorry that I'm the only one that sees any merit in lynching originality, but after 30 pages, I give in. I've managed to neuter him for tonight, having made him promise there'll be no more strangulations, and I'm going to have to settle for that.


And hey Elias, welcome back!! I thought you were gone forever

1) Way to not address the 100% certainty thing.
2) But there is no hurry. If you're 100% certain then articulate why. I am open to the possibility of you being town and Orig being scum, but you have failed to make a convincing case for why we should lynch Orig today.
3) So I am anti-town now?

I'll make you a deal dybeck: You lay out a case right here and now which details precisely why Orig is such obvscum and I will stop suspecting you for that. All I want is to know the facts which lead you to 100% certainty.

I can't say for certain what effect that will have, but it is certainly the foundations of my suspicion on you.

[Gemelli]

Since then, I have considered people who run the "any objections?"/ "Shall I do the honours?" line to be scummy. Feel free to disagree with me here; if I am wrong then being told so will help me as a player.

It would be unreasonable for me to tell someone with experience in this game that they are "wrong" for playing a certain way. But FWIW, I view this game as one of consensus-building. This may be the new-guy perspective thing again, but I am currently more inclined to view actions taken arbitrarily and without discussion as scummy. I do see where you are coming from here -- mafia *should* certainly try to blend into the mob, and asking for consensus is one way to do that -- but I think that you could try to argue scummy behavior regardless of whether someone acts independently OR tries to build consensus. (Or lurks, or posts too much, etc. etc. Scum can and will do all of those things.)

Again, dybeck, I demand that you point out another

SK candidate

. Before your argument was that Oman is SK, now he has swapped to gobsmackingly obvmafia. I don't like your certainty and I don't like your failure to explain your new views.

I agree that this was a rather dramatic shift, and that it should have been prefaced by an explanation. But vollkan, this part of your post really bothers me. For the past few pages, you have been arguing that you think that the most likely scenario is that we do NOT have an SK, and that originality is a vig. Your post is inconsistent with that perspective, and the shift came without comment -- since this is the same behavior that you are criticizing dybeck for, surely the irony is not lost on you. Coupled with the loaded word "demand", this raises suspicion flags for me.

1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

Irony alert! The words "always" and "never" reflect a 100% certain perspective. This reads to me like "do as I say, not as I do."

The other thing that's bugging me about the last few pages is that you stated in post 953 that you were on the fence between Oman and Dybeck, and wanted to "wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote." Oman posted a relatively content-free post in 956, and then in 957 you posted a re-read on 951 -- this is where you first demanded that dybeck identify an SK -- that ended with a confirm vote on dybeck. To me, this feels a lot like smoke and mirrors: focusing discussion back on your primary target to pull attention away from Oman.

Dybeck is certainly acting scummy now, and I will be the first to admit that my initial read on him was naive. But vollkan, over the last 2-3 pages, I am getting the nagging feeling that you are not being objective in how you treat Oman.

FoS: Oman

(yes, that's a vote AND an FoS; that's how I roll) and

FoS: vollkan

until Oman actually addresses the points that shaft.ed has been bringing up, and until vollkan indicates whether or not he is satisfied with those answers.

[Gemelli]

Sorry, wanted to address one more point from 972:

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

Since Oman's last post in this game (964), he has posted:

* 6 times in Newbie 479
* 3 times in Newbie 459
* 3 times in Ferris Wheel 2
* 1 time in Newbie 473
* 1 time in Open 50
* 1 time in Mini 504
* 3 times in Open 51
* 2 times in Mini 483
* 2 times in Mini 500
* 1 time in Stargate SG-1

As well as various discussion threads, bringing his total to

40 posts

on mafiascum.net since he last graced this thread with his presence. Despite being the target of one of the two major bandwagons in this game.

So he may be lurking in games that aren't listed above, but it's not like he's gone V/LA or anything.

[Lucienne]

I swear I was voting Dybeck... oh wait I took it off when we got into the whole numbers thing didn't I?

Vote Dybeck

It's just so convenient. I never buy any of your wagonning attempts really - and your attempts to bring them down to playstyle make think more that you are scum than not.

Quite good for you that your vote brings you up to a tie here isn't it?

I'll be re-reading probably, but at this point I am most likely to be voting for Oman.

[Lucienne]

I notice that after some checks, Oman tends to follow people, especially with his votes. This mainly includes vollkan (whom Oman followed several times voting between dybeck and AlyG), and shaft.ed once, I think (although it could be more).

My suspicions that they could be together are only emphasised by the fact they are both voting for dybeck at this point, although I do admit this is very weak - dybeck is my second choice, and it would be pretty hard to argue that dybeck

wasn't

scummy. Nonetheless, it's something I'd consider if Oman came up as scum.

Still most likely to be voting for Oman. I really, really don't like his bandwagonning in this game. Even though it could be playstyle, I really see it as forced, and coupled with other factors (including him putting AlyG on his suggested orig kill list, which is obviously scummy), lead me to believe he is the most likely candidate to be scum at this stage.

[dybeck]

Originality visited somebody. Now they're dead.

vote: originality

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.

I'd also point out that originality was all very vocal yesterday and nearly got himself lynched. The fact that he's so quiet today smacks to me of someone who's received a serious talking to by his scummates overnight

Carrotcake was actively scumhunting yesterday, and frankly was my absolute first pick for being protown - bar none.

If I'd been scum, I would have targeted him. If I'd been the doctor, I would have targeted him. If I were the vig, I most certainly would not have.

Originality - name me one single thing carrotcake said that made you think he was the most scummy one here - to the point where you would actually kill him. More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday. There's just nothing there. You're totally lying and need to die.

the reason originality claimed vig is because he knows he'd be counterclaimed if he claimed cop, and he knows that a doc claim is ridiculous because his target died.

And 'strangulation' - does this sound like the hallmark of the vig?

You backed originality into a corner, and managed to actually get pretty decent proof on him with a VERY POOR claim. Please don't fail to capitalize on it now!

Originality, I'm still waiting for you to point out one thing that was remotely scummy about carrotcake yesterday please.

1) been fingered by a power-role who had absolutely no need to claim otherwise

Oman... in answer to your question... I still don't have any reason to disbelieve AlyG's claim... and I still wish people would think again about just how wildly implausible it is that a pro-town vig would have targeted carrotcake.

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.

A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.

It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.

After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.

It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.

If I were scum, I'd have killed carrotcake.

Too quiet to be likely to get doctor protection. Quiet enough to have been keeping low to be protecting a power role, yet always actively scumhunting.

Originality, can you tell us how the flavor of your vig role marries up with the fact that you're strangling people? It seems hopelessly out of flavor for a vig.

There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

Vollkan... I've tried to make a case for orig. My God how I've tried. Please feel free to ignore me and campaign for my lynch. But please, god, please, don't tell me I haven't tried to make a case for orig's lynch. It makes me want to cry.

[Elias_the_thief]

Shit shit shit. I had a huge post ligned up but my computer died. Don't worry, this isnt an excuse to get out of content. But it will be less content.

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...
Anyways, moving on, I find his claim that he had a gut feeling against CC even less likely when you look at this post (344) directly after night scene is revealed.

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum. Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.

vote: originality

[Elias_the_thief]

Also: I realize this is pretty much exclusively about orig and Aly, but I lost most of my original post and I dont want to retype anything else right now. So I posted the most important part.

[Gemelli]

Thanks, Elias, and welcome back to the game.

Earlier in the discussion, we had talked about vig being a suicidal claim for a SK ... which is the main reason that some of us have been willing to entertain the vigOrig scenario as a possibility. While I agree with you that originality's posts have been deeply suspicious, IMHO there are three things working in his favor at the moment:

(1) He admitted to targetting CC, claimed vig, and supported AlyG's claim out of the gate. I would not expect any of this behavior from a SK, since it paints a huge target on his back for the mafia.
(2) He has said that he is willing not to kill tonight. If we end up with two deaths, we will have confirmed that he's scum and we lynch him.
(3) If we lynch him tonight, it makes the Mafia's kill decision easier tonight with one less claimed power role on the table.

So while I wholeheartedly agree with your suspicions, I don't think that an originality lynch is our best choice for today. Sorry to hear about the lost post; when you have time I would be very interested to hear your thoughts on all of the other players. Particularly the two that are at the top of our current vote list.

[Elias_the_thief]

Thanks, Elias, and welcome back to the game.

Earlier in the discussion, we had talked about vig being a suicidal claim for a SK ... which is the main reason that some of us have been willing to entertain the vigOrig scenario as a possibility.

I strongly disagree with this argument. It's clearly wifom in nature. If the town think this, they accept him as vig. I would also say that vig is actually a pretty good claim for a caught SK. If town accepts him, he may even receive doc protection.

(1) He admitted to targetting CC, claimed vig, and supported AlyG's claim out of the gate. I would not expect any of this behavior from a SK, since it paints a huge target on his back for the mafia.

Assuming he's SK, he was caught. His options were to fight the claim, make a wierd claim, or claim vig. If town believes him, he might get doc protection, which obviously makes the vig claim better then fighting Alys claim.

(2) He has said that he is willing not to kill tonight. If we end up with two deaths, we will have confirmed that he's scum and we lynch him.

This ignores the fact that he can simply no kill as SK. Also, we could just lynch him now and ASSURE that there are no kills from a second party.

(3) If we lynch him tonight, it makes the Mafia's kill decision easier tonight with one less claimed power role on the table.

Maybe. But I think a kill of someone besides Orig would give us more info, though I wont say who (id rather not direct the scum).

So while I wholeheartedly agree with your suspicions, I don't think that an originality lynch is our best choice for today.

Alright. I disagree, though I'll repost my thoughts on the top 2 anyhow.

[dybeck]

As I posted earlier... any other claim but vig results in him being lynched before he even gets a chance to get to the possibility of a nightkill.

Doctor claim fails because his target died.

Cop claim fails because he'd obviously be counter-claimed, and he'd be lynched.

Tracker claim fails because we wouldn't have two.

Townie claim fails because he had a night action.

His only slim hope of survival was a vig claim, which would explain why he was at the site of the murder with a garotte wire in his hand.

Anything more exotic would have been laughed out of court.

His only real alternative was roleblocker - but then, just like vig/SK, this is a role that's as often scum as it is town. If he had to make a claim of a role that cast aspersions over his alignment (which he obviously did), he would be ten times better to choose the one that tallies with the fact his target died.

It may look like a suicidal claim, but it was clearly his only chance of surviving the day, let alone the night.

Put yourself in the position of SK/mafia originality. What would YOU have claimed?

[vollkan]

It would be unreasonable for me to tell someone with experience in this game that they are "wrong" for playing a certain way. But FWIW, I view this game as one of consensus-building. This may be the new-guy perspective thing again, but I am currently more inclined to view actions taken arbitrarily and without discussion as scummy. I do see where you are coming from here -- mafia *should* certainly try to blend into the mob, and asking for consensus is one way to do that -- but I think that you could try to argue scummy behavior regardless of whether someone acts independently OR tries to build consensus. (Or lurks, or posts too much, etc. etc. Scum can and will do all of those things.)

This is more of a theory point than anything, so let me elaborate.

Arbitrarily hammering is scummy, too. You are absolutely correct about that. The thing is, that I find it scummy when people say "Any objections to me hammering?" I am much more comfortable with "Is this lynch appropriate?" or something to that effect (though I realise that this is now voided for this game because I have revealed my preference).

The former ("objections") I do not like because it is effectively trying to deny blame IMHO. Of course, a scum would be idiotic to say "But none of you objected!" but the point is that at some level this seeks to reduce the person's individual culpability.

Again, dybeck, I demand that you point out another SK candidate . Before your argument was that Oman is SK, now he has swapped to gobsmackingly obvmafia. I don't like your certainty and I don't like your failure to explain your new views.

I agree that this was a rather dramatic shift, and that it should have been prefaced by an explanation. But vollkan, this part of your post really bothers me. For the past few pages, you have been arguing that you think that the most likely scenario is that we do NOT have an SK, and that originality is a vig. Your post is inconsistent with that perspective, and the shift came without comment -- since this is the same behavior that you are criticizing dybeck for, surely the irony is not lost on you. Coupled with the loaded word "demand", this raises suspicion flags for me.

You've completely misunderstood me.

I asked dybeck to point out another SK candidate because he had said that Oman was obvmafia with Orig whereas before he was saying Oman was SK. That has no bearing on my own view.

1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

Irony alert! The words "always" and "never" reflect a 100% certain perspective. This reads to me like "do as I say, not as I do."

I don't follow you...Are you saying it is ironic that I am saying that townies should never be 100% certain?

If so, I disagree. Townies are an

uninformed

majority. At best, they can only ever get a very strong idea of things.

Would it be ironic if I said "vanillas always have no powers"? No. That is a basic fact about the game, same as townies being uninformed.

There is a significant difference between saying "I am certain X is scum" and saying "Townies should never be 100% sure"

The other thing that's bugging me about the last few pages is that you stated in post 953 that you were on the fence between Oman and Dybeck, and wanted to "wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote." Oman posted a relatively content-free post in 956, and then in 957 you posted a re-read on 951 -- this is where you first demanded that dybeck identify an SK -- that ended with a confirm vote on dybeck. To me, this feels a lot like smoke and mirrors: focusing discussion back on your primary target to pull attention away from Oman.

Dybeck is certainly acting scummy now, and I will be the first to admit that my initial read on him was naive. But vollkan, over the last 2-3 pages, I am getting the nagging feeling that you are not being objective in how you treat Oman. FoS: Oman (yes, that's a vote AND an FoS; that's how I roll) and FoS: vollkan until Oman actually addresses the points that shaft.ed has been bringing up, and until vollkan indicates whether or not he is satisfied with those answers.

Regarding #953, I was aware as I was writing it of how it could be interpreted. I never said that I was going to vote Oman if he did not post to my satisfaction; I simply said I was not going to change until he checked in.

I thought I had made myself clear: I think Oman is scummy and I think dybeck is more scummy. I would be happy with an Oman lynch, but right now we have no pressure of deadline or anything so I have no reason not to pursue the line I prefer.

I know that if Oman is lynched and comes up scum, I will very likely be accused also, but that is not going to alter my behaviour.

As for Oman's following of me with his votes, I have absolutely no idea why he is doing it and it worries me considerably. My gut feeling is that he is trying to tie himself to me pre-empting his lynch.

@Dybeck:
Reading your latest post, I detect a few main points:
1) He chose CC who was not scummy
2) Strangulation
3) Vig being the most sensible claim
My responses:
1) I know CC was not scummy and I think her suspicion in AlyG was very well-placed. The problem is, that it is not impossible to conceive of a vig targeting CC. I have known vigs to have done some pretty stupid things.
2) This will mean more for me after tonight. The thing is, some mods choose the MOs at random. I would note here that on page 1, the N0 kill was done by "knife in back". Now, that may just be for flavour, but the point is that I would want to know whether the MOs are constant before making judgment on this. And, even then, this is "Mafia on a Plane". No guns makes it far more likely for a vig to strangle.
3) Here, it depends. Vig is a bad claim for a SK because it is certain suicide. An RB claim, whilst notoriously bad, would safer because it would make the mafia more inclined to target AlyG. On the other hand, vig is also bad for a mafioso because the mafioso does not know if there is a vig or not, running risk of a counter.

Again, dybeck, I find this case seriously wanting. Rather than re-running over the same ground again and again, please address my rebuttal. If you are serious about Orig, then don't get frustrated, explain why I am wrong.

Now, Elias:

Earlier in the discussion, we had talked about vig being a suicidal claim for a SK ... which is the main reason that some of us have been willing to entertain the vigOrig scenario as a possibility.

I strongly disagree with this argument. It's clearly wifom in nature. If the town think this, they accept him as vig. I would also say that vig is actually a pretty good claim for a caught SK. If town accepts him, he may even receive doc protection.

I cannot envisage any doctor protecting Orig tonight when AlyG is much more likely to be a pro-town power role. Additionally, it doesn't matter if the town accepts Orig because the mafia will almost certainly NK him.

Assuming he's SK, he was caught. His options were to fight the claim, make a wierd claim, or claim vig. If town believes him, he might get doc protection, which obviously makes the vig claim better then fighting Alys claim.

Again, I think RB would have been more viable. I know that if I was in that situation as a SK, I would not claim vig; I would claim RB because it would make me less likely to be NKed by the mafia.

This ignores the fact that he can simply no kill as SK. Also, we could just lynch him now and ASSURE that there are no kills from a second party.

If SKOrig does not NK tonight, even if he does survive he is completely screwed. It does not clear him entirely, but it does provide a strong case for him being town. I would rather not lynch him and have him likely pull cross-fire from AlyG.

As I posted earlier... any other claim but vig results in him being lynched before he even gets a chance to get to the possibility of a nightkill.

Doctor claim fails because his target died.

Cop claim fails because he'd obviously be counter-claimed, and he'd be lynched.

Tracker claim fails because we wouldn't have two.

Townie claim fails because he had a night action.

His only slim hope of survival was a vig claim, which would explain why he was at the site of the murder with a garotte wire in his hand.

Anything more exotic would have been laughed out of court.

His only real alternative was roleblocker - but then, just like vig/SK, this is a role that's as often scum as it is town. If he had to make a claim of a role that cast aspersions over his alignment (which he obviously did), he would be ten times better to choose the one that tallies with the fact his target died.

It may look like a suicidal claim, but it was clearly his only chance of surviving the day, let alone the night.

Put yourself in the position of SK/mafia originality. What would YOU have claimed?

I agree with you on doc, cop and townie but NOT on RB.

I would have claimed RB. It does not guarantee safety from lynch, but it is far less likely to be NKed than a tracker.

[Elias_the_thief]

Personally, I would've myself selected Vig, to protect myself from future troubles down the road that claiming an ability you dont actually have might cause. Claiming another killing role at least allows you to carry out the actions that the town asks of you. I'll agree with you however, that for now, killing off Orig may not be the best move, as smart scum would pick him off in the night. The problem I see with this strategy, is what happens if mafia

doesnt

kill him off? If mafia is counting on us to lynch him the next day, then we might have a problem. (also, doc & mafia will play a wifom game tonight anyhow).

I cant get it together tonight to post my opinions on Oman and Dybeck, mainly becuase the last few pages are very confusing. Both cases are spread out over a number of pages. Vollkan, would you be willing to lay out your complete case on Dybeck so far? Shaft.ed, could you do the same for Oman? I think it would help alot to have organized cases, and I believe you two are the leaders in respective wagons, and in activity.

[vollkan]

Personally, I would've myself selected Vig, to protect myself from future troubles down the road that claiming an ability you dont actually have might cause. Claiming another killing role at least allows you to carry out the actions that the town asks of you.

I hadn't thought of that.

Hmm, but a lynch would be uncertain if you did not carry out the town's will because it would be impossible to verify unless you were ordered RB a doctor and that doctor's target was NKed or similarly if you were ordered to RB a cop and they got a result. Whereas, NK is almost guaranteed with a vig claim.

I'll agree with you however, that for now, killing off Orig may not be the best move, as smart scum would pick him off in the night. The problem I see with this strategy, is what happens if mafia doesnt kill him off? If mafia is counting on us to lynch him the next day, then we might have a problem. (also, doc & mafia will play a wifom game tonight anyhow).

I can't imagine the mafia relying on us to lynch Orig tomorrow, particularly given the fact that vigOrig should coalesce with our No Kill demand. That places them at the prospect of losing two members on D3 (which is a loss for them if we lynch mafia today)

As for the wifom game, AlyG is a factor in it as well.

Vollkan, would you be willing to lay out your complete case on Dybeck so far? Shaft.ed, could you do the same for Oman?

Sure.
First up, let me say that dybeck did not strike me as particularly suspicious D1. He was 2nd on ryan (confirmed townie), but that does not mean too much to me.
Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.
2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything
3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.
4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon
5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)
6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.
7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia
8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)
9)

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

10) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

[shaft.ed]

lot to say but too busy right now.
I'm LA til Monday most likely.
And Elias welcome back! Hope I didn't come off as too much of a prick in the Discussion thread.

[Elias_the_thief]

nah. you made me look like a hypocrit and undermined the relevance of my argument, but besides that, no harm done.

but seriously, yeah, we're cool.

[dybeck]

Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.
2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything
3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.
4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon
5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)
6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.
7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia
8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)
9)

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

10) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

I'm sorry that you have to build a case based upon lies and misrepresentations. It actually demeans you as a player, because I think you're more than capable of getting me to lynch -1 without doing so.

1) Fair cop. I over-reacted. Saying "Gosh! A serial killer!" is a huge SK tell. In fact, it's the biggest SK tell. However, I've already retracted my assertion. Shaft.ed has looked pro-town all day since then and I think we need to get over this.

2) Wanting to lynch mafia over lynching the SK is NOT anti-town. This is blatant falsehood, as anyone who read my posts about it at the time will have seen me say. If we lynch the SK today, we are in Lynch or Lose for the remainder of the game. If we can find mafia - we should do it. It's not anti-town to say so.

3) Another lie. I'll drop the hammer on either of Oman or originality. I don't think it's wrong at all. Unless anyone has any objection.

4) You infer that I haven't already said that I think orig will kill tonight. I've said in very clear terms that I think he'll kill, and more specifically, that I think he'll kill me. I think we should lynch him before he gets a chance. However, at least we can lynch him if he does. His group are either neutered, or caught.

5) You posted reasons why orig can't be scum? For real?!

6) ORIG IS SCUM! I'M RIGHT TO HAVE A SINGULAR FOCUS!

7) Another lie. I'm relatively certain Orig is mafia. And I've said this a lot.

8)-10) Wishy-washy attitudes? Too much certainty? What would you have me do? I'm afraid I don't have any strong read on anyone other than orig and AlyG. I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

Perhaps posting "100% certain misled you". There's a chance I'm wrong, but it's less than 0.5%. To the nearest percent, there's 100% chance orig is scum.

We found him killing a townie, for god's sake. Your continued defence of him just makes you look stupid, imo.

[vollkan]

I'm sorry that you have to build a case based upon lies and misrepresentations. It actually demeans you as a player, because I think you're more than capable of getting me to lynch -1 without doing so.

I'm writing this as I read through your post; so I am expecting some major evidence of misrepresentations since you have said this.

1) Fair cop. I over-reacted. Saying "Gosh! A serial killer!" is a huge SK tell. In fact, it's the biggest SK tell. However, I've already retracted my assertion. Shaft.ed has looked pro-town all day since then and I think we need to get over this.

You can't just retract something that you were so definite about and seriously expect the rest of us to just accept that and move on.

2) Wanting to lynch mafia over lynching the SK is NOT anti-town. This is blatant falsehood, as anyone who read my posts about it at the time will have seen me say. If we lynch the SK today, we are in Lynch or Lose for the remainder of the game. If we can find mafia - we should do it. It's not anti-town to say so.

Let's not forget here that the Orig thing had not surfaced when you made the allegations against shaft.ed. This is important.

5:3:1

Now....Mafia do not know who the other NKer is (remember, Orig has not claimed). This means that the mafia's likelihood of NKing the SK is very low.

Maf lynch = 5:2:1
--MafNK town = 4:2:1 (P = 5/6)
----SKNK maf = 4:1:1 (P = 2/7) P = 0.23

----SKNK town = 3:2:1 (P= 5/7) P = 0.59

--MafNK SK = 5:2:0 (P = 1/6)
----SKNK maf = 5:1:0 (P = 2/7) P = 0.04
----SKNK town = 4:2 (P = 5/7) P = 0.11

SK lynch = 5:3
--MafNK town = 4:2 P = 1

What do we notice? Well, the only outcome of lynching mafia which is not very messy (3:2:1 or 4:1:1) or LYLO (4:2) is 5:1 which has the oh-so-remarkable probability of 4%.

The most important thing, however, is that the most likely outcome of lynching a mafioso is 3:2:1.

In other words, you were being misleading by saying that a mafia lynch is much better, because 3:2:1 is just as bad if not worse. Fine, it is not auto-loss, but it is one off lylo at best.

3) Another lie. I'll drop the hammer on either of Oman or originality. I don't think it's wrong at all. Unless anyone has any objection.

I fail to see the relevance to my 3) which was:

3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.

You seem to be addressing the number 3) I had within 8.)

I will assume that is what you have done.
You said before

I might actually be happier with Oman, because

in the event that we're wrong in any combination,

we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

The combination of the "anybody need..." and the "in the event we're wrong" makes it look like you pre-empting Oman coming up town and you are trying to absolve yourself by justifying the hammering wrt Orig not NKing and by asking for consensus.

4) You infer that I haven't already said that I think orig will kill tonight. I've said in very clear terms that I think he'll kill, and more specifically, that I think he'll kill me. I think we should lynch him before he gets a chance. However, at least we can lynch him if he does. His group are either neutered, or caught.

Again, my 4) was:

4) Dybeck's
Quote:
it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday
when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon

You have not addressed this.

You addressed the 4) within 8.)

Assuming that,
Show me where you said it is likely he will still NK. If you do, I will drop this point.

5) You posted reasons why orig can't be scum? For real?!

YA RLY! And you still haven't rebutted them (hint: read post #993)

6) ORIG IS SCUM! I'M RIGHT TO HAVE A SINGULAR FOCUS!

Oh dear...We know there are 2 NKing groups. Hence, being singularly focussed is a BAD idea. Did it not cross your mind that you could be wrong about Orig and just MAYBE it might be sensible to keep an eye out on other things as well? Even if you were dead set on Orig, there was still a whole other scumgroup that you should also have your eyes out for.

The only reason for a singular focus would be if you are scum trying to off Orig who you assume is scum.

7) Another lie. I'm relatively certain Orig is mafia. And I've said this a lot.

Not a lie, a typo. SK and mafia are in the wrong place. It was effectively what I just said above about the second scumgroup thing.

8.)-10)

Wishy-washy attitudes? Too much certainty? What would you have me do?

I'm afraid I don't have any strong read on anyone other than orig and AlyG. I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

I love the fact that at the start of this you make it look like I am making no sense, but you then go on and address exactly what I meant.

Until VERY recently you were vague and had little to no opinion on anybody except Orig and AlyG (to a lesser extent)

Perhaps posting "100% certain misled you". There's a chance I'm wrong, but it's less than 0.5%. To the nearest percent, there's 100% chance orig is scum.

I disagree. I would peg Orig as 65% likely to be scum. Sometimes more, sometimes less; but this gives an indication of my view.

We found him killing a townie, for god's sake. Your continued defence of him just makes you look stupid, imo.

Defence...? Me being unconvinced by your case is not a defence. There are arguments for Orig being vig which you have not dealt with and I have blasted the arguments for scum you have presented.

I am not defending Orig; I am simply stating the facts as I see them and am critically analysing your rather narrow arguments.