Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[originality]

Oh and nice work on the thingamajig, it should be pretty useful.

[dybeck]

Why are you so convinced he's town in spite of it all?

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

[originality]

Pretty sure he's -2.

[vollkan]

First up, thanks for the parser Gem. Great work.

Now, actual stuff.
Something about Orig's latests posts is rubbing me the wrong way.

I guess it is mainly the fact that he is relying so much on himself being pro-town as a justification for his actions.

His 100% conviction of me being scum keeps nagging me, since I'm the only one who knows for a fact that that is false. I don't know if I can explain it well, I guess it is about him making a blatently wrong decision, which leads me to suspect him even more.

dybeck is a way better choice for today.

I've been the main advocate of the dybeck wagon, and not even I consider him a "way better choice".

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.

This looks like a potential bus.

Also, interesting that Oman thinks dybeck is obvobv scum, when he is not actually voting for dybeck or showing any strong suspicions.

At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote.

[AlyG]

originality, your reasoning is faulty. You seem to think that the people defending you from a lynch believe you are very likely to be town. Most of us, at least me personally, believe you

may

be town but are running with the idea that if you are not town aligned you are quite likely to be NK'd tonight by an opposing anti-town faction. Where I believe dybeck to be wrong is where he ignores this section of the situation and stubbornly insists lynching you is the only play for today. He also twists people's words and associates any person thinking you should be left alive with a scum faction. This is where he is being scummy, not in specifically calling for your lynch.

I personally would like you to explain what makes dybeck a "way better choice for today" than Oman. I know I've been struggling with this decision (or perhaps someone outside of this duo) and would like to know what makes you so sure that dybeck is the scum.

Ok I expected this. I meant that only *I* know myself to be town, and therefore especially I knew that his insistence on my lynch was weird. Trust me, I know you guys are suspicious of me.

Now with why dybeck>Oman for today.
You could say they are the extreme opposites, with dybeck being too stubborn, and Oman changing his mind too easily. Both extremes are bad I say.

Dybeck however, fails at reasoning. Oman at least understands peoples excuses (or says he does I guess) and offers his own half assed excuses, which could be interpreted as shady when looking at his vote pattern, but still plausible.

Dybeck just refuses to believe that his thought process might be wrong. To you guys it might seem less odd then to me, because you don't know for sure whether I'm town or scum. But I do. Therefore his insistence is especially weird to me.

Now lets backtrack to the original anti-dybeck reasons. He seemed sort of obsessed with the SK in the beginning, being SO sure that shaft.ed was it. Now when I show up he completely forgets about his old shaft.ed arguments, because hey look a confirmed killing role.

The mafia would simply LOVE to get a SK lynched, because A) it is good for them, and b) makes them look good for the town. Ok, that argument is wifomish, I admit. If they got a vig lynched, they at least would have the excuse of "I had NO way of knowing he wasn't an SK!" which is an OK excuse I guess. It definitely won't bring the town's ire upon him tomorrow if he gets a vig lynched, because no one knew better.

His stronghold of anti-originality is focused on "Carrotcake was most prototwn player ever no vig would kill him he simply MUST be scum". Which would be acceptable for the beginning of this discussion, but even after I pointed out how I hated carrotcake's weird quietness, and how he seemed to be to be trying too hard to appear town, and after everyone was shown how carrotcake wasn't especially pro-town at ALL, he still ignores this.

And his odd death paranoia. He seemed too sure I was going to NK him, and for that he kept trying to get me to give him my word on a specific night action. The mafia would like to know exactly what I would do, so they know for a fact whether I am a threat or not. Very suspicious thing for him to say. And he keeps asking everyone how likely his night death would be. Well, at least I can answer you now, since the town seems to have made up its mind. I will not NK.

I'm not defending dybeck but there are a few suspicions which have flawed reasoning. Firstly, Wouldn't the town also LOVE to kill the SK? The SK is as big threat to the town as to the scum. You can't be suspicious of someone for trying to uncover who the SK is. Most other players are also thinking of strategies to uncover the SK so she shouldn't be singled out.

Secondly, saying dybeck was focused on Shaft.ed and suspicious of him is also flawed. Because i just had a look at that situation and he voted Shaft.ed and then immediately unvoted saying there could be better candidates. he was attacked for this but at the time of your claim he wasn't focused on anybody!

Overall, some of this reasoning is flawed but you also bring up some good points. I still believe that Oman>Dybeck.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #22!

Oman (3) - Gemelli, shaft.ed, AlyG
dybeck (2) - vollkan, originality
originality (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, Elias_the_Thief, Oman

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[Oman]

I swear I was voting Dybeck... oh wait I took it off when we got into the whole numbers thing didn't I?

Vote Dybeck

[vollkan]

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

Confirm Vote: dybeck

[Oman]

what is the difference between Gemelli's tool and the Find posts by link below?

[Oman]

Hey I just tried that tool, its awesome. Does it just pick up bolded phrases?

[vollkan]

what is the difference between Gemelli's tool and the Find posts by link below?

What do you mean "find posts by"?

If you mean the second dialog box in Gem's tool, it is the same thing except it shows the posts by the particular player you are interested in in full.

[vollkan]

Hey I just tried that tool, its awesome. Does it just pick up bolded phrases?

That must be how it works. Otherwise it would pick up every post with "vote" in it

[Oman]

No by find posts by I mean "display posts from previous" below this post.

[vollkan]

No by find posts by I mean "display posts from previous" below this post.

Since when was that at the bottom of my screen?!

[Oman]

lol you've never seen it?

[Gemelli]

The main differences are that my script:

(1) Shows those posts in the context of other major actions (votes, FoS, etc.) within the game,
(2) Retains the actual post numbers, and
(3) Looks much uglier than the actual thread posts

And yes, for purposes of looking for votes/FoS/etc., it only looks at bolded text (and discards all quoted text).

Anyway. We now have two players at L-2, and two players who are not voting (Lucienne and the hopefully-soon-to-be-replaced Elias). Lucienne, where do you stand on the possible scum candidates? Are you leaning one way or the other?

I'm not convinced by Oman's "I bandwagon all the time" meta defense, and the originality/Oman BFF-style post history is disturbing. They may not be in cahoots, but I'm at a loss to explain the post history otherwise.

I agree that dybeck is still looking dubious, but vollkan, assuming that dybeck thought that Oman was hammerable, I wouldn't describe his post as "chomping at the bit" to get him lynched. Wouldn't he have just gone ahead and voted without asking for input?

Also, question for you vets out there: what *is* the appropriate time to ask for role claims from suspicious players? I'd assume that L-1 would be a natural claim request trigger.

[shaft.ed]

Thanks for getting us back on track Gemelli. Little concerned with recent events. Need time to digest them before I add my input.

[shaft.ed]

OK, as I've said I have problems with both dybeck and Oman. I'm pretty certain now with the dueling bandwagons that they are mutually exlusive as scum, but both may still be town. I'd have prefered this to hold out until Lucienne got off of her LA and the Elias replacement chimed in. Depending on the steadfastness of current voters, this still may be the case.


Dybeck, going to start with you. I found your recent post a bit discomforting. I remember that you have been suspicious of Oman for a short while as evidenced by your NK choice list, where the most recent one has him posited as the first NK choice. What bothered me most about your post was your sudden conviction that of course Oman and orig are scum

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

and your willingness to hammer as the current state of things go. This is regardless of the fact that you couldn't have hammered anyway, the fact that you state you are comfortable hammering worries me. However, dybeck is pointing out a scummy play by originality, his top scum candidate. I don't see anything at all bad about that. But you are again jumping around on your scum groups. If Oman and orig are partners, who's the SK? And finally, I would very much appreciate it if you would come out and give your opinions of everyone. I find it scummy that you would hide these insights because it allows you any leeway you want to jump on available victims without any oversight.

Oman, you continue to ignore my post #882 where I shred your "the town was doing so good hunting scum" comment. Now you come back with this sorry post saying "Gee whiz I'm not voting for obvobv scum Vote XXX."

I swear I was voting Dybeck... oh wait I took it off when we got into the whole numbers thing didn't I?

Vote Dybeck

I'm not buying it. You even make it sound as if you don't care about your own convictions. You mention that you don't even remember when you took your vote off of him. It wasn't during the numbers "thing" it was when you shamelessly tried to bandwagon Elias after I pointed out his non-existance. If you were town concerned with scum-hunting I think you'd care a lot more about why you're voting dybeck and maybe track down the reason your vote left him. When I look back at your case against dybeck, you haven't mentioned him since Sept. 28th when you made your list of NK targets (which included AlyG btw). And your last content laden post on dybeck was Sept. 27th.

Anyway, from the last two pages, Dybeck is actually writing stuff, and starting to look town.

However, I believe this is not because he IS town, but because the town is beginning to share his views (Evident in the Dybeck: Town: sketch). Thus I believe Dybeck to be as scummy as ever, and the town is merely parrallel.

Talk about sorry logic here.
Oman, what it comes down to is I want you to justifiably and reasonably explain your sloppy play as of late, and your comment about us doing such a good job hunting scum at a time where you were neck and neck for the most likely to be lynched trophy.

[AlyG]

I swear I was voting Dybeck... oh wait I took it off when we got into the whole numbers thing didn't I?

Vote Dybeck

I'm not buying it. You even make it sound as if you don't care about your own convictions. You mention that you don't even remember when you took your vote off of him. It wasn't during the numbers "thing" it was when you shamelessly tried to bandwagon Elias after I pointed out his non-existance. If you were town concerned with scum-hunting I think you'd care a lot more about why you're voting dybeck and maybe track down the reason your vote left him. When I look back at your case against dybeck, you haven't mentioned him since Sept. 28th when you made your list of NK targets (which included AlyG btw). And your last content laden post on dybeck was Sept. 27th.

I never noticed that, and like Shaft.ed said you took the vote off when you tried to bandwagon Elias about 10 pages ago. Sol That's more bandwagonning by you but that's going to far. You don't provide a plausible reason except that you thought you were voting for him and then did. And you haven't even put a case against him in over a week! You are really trying to avoid being lynched now are you? You're just piling a vote on someone who is the closest to getting lynched (Apart from you.) If the vote was on anyone else it would have not looked as bad but because it's on a person who is at -2 it's very scummy and desperate.

Confirm Vote: Oman

[dybeck]

If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked.

[shaft.ed]

If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked.

Well be ready to eat your hat when you find out I'm not the serial killer. Your confidence does not inspire me.

[dybeck]

Yeah I might have been a little overenthusiastic about you at the beginning of the day.

You did let out a whopper of a SK tell, but you've been genuinely pro-town since. One swallow does not make a summer I guess.

[vollkan]

I agree that dybeck is still looking dubious, but vollkan, assuming that dybeck thought that Oman was hammerable, I wouldn't describe his post as "chomping at the bit" to get him lynched. Wouldn't he have just gone ahead and voted without asking for input?

No. But I should say that I am going by my own experience. I made this blunder as mafia in Mini 436 and it took me a lot of wrangling to get out of it (though we ended up winning with no casualties). I had someone actually at L-1 and I asked for "Any objections?" as a means of trying to get agreement. People picked up on it and harangued me for "trying to get a consensus behind me".

Since then, I have considered people who run the "any objections?"/ "Shall I do the honours?" line to be scummy. Feel free to disagree with me here; if I am wrong then being told so will help me as a player.

If dybeck is mafia and especially if dybeck is SK, he has an obvious motivation for trying to ensure he is not culpable for lynches. The language of his post clearly conveys an eagerness which he had not shown for Oman until now:

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman,

because

in the event that we're wrong

in any combination,

we've pretty much managed to neuter

originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody

need

to say anything before I drop the hammer?

Maybe this is me being pedantic, but those phrases jump out. "Happier" with Oman from the guy who has been labelling Orig obvscum. I might have been alright with "equally fine" but the possibility of him being "happier" seems quite inconsistent.

Also, he deals with the "if we are wrong" and tries to buff it up as positive. This "positive" (which as I said in my last post, is non-existent) applies to any lynch, not just Oman's.

Finally, he asks if anyone "needs" to claim. He is waiting for objections. Again, my consensus-seeking tell.

Talk about sorry logic here.
Oman, what it comes down to is I want you to justifiably and reasonably explain your sloppy play as of late, and your comment about us doing such a good job hunting scum at a time where you were neck and neck for the most likely to be lynched trophy.

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked.

Again, dybeck, I demand that you point out another

SK candidate

. Before your argument was that Oman is SK, now he has swapped to gobsmackingly obvmafia. I don't like your certainty and I don't like your failure to explain your new views.

[dybeck]

Another SK candidate? I don't know... Lucienne maybe?

I don't pretend to have all the answers.

I'm just 100% convinced that originality is mafia, and a readthrough of his relationship with Oman is enough to convince me that Oman is probably scum with him.

And of course I'm waiting for objections. If people still want discussion time, we should have it.

Take a readthrough of Oman and orig's posts. They've both spent a lot of time talking about a lot of things, and have notably avoided talking about the issues that face each other.

[vollkan]

Another SK candidate? I don't know... Lucienne maybe?

I don't pretend to have all the answers.

Well, you've been so damn certain about everything else when it suits you.

I'm just 100% convinced that originality is mafia, and a readthrough of his relationship with Oman is enough to convince me that Oman is probably scum with him.

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.
2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still. There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?
3) The Lucienne thing (from above): Where do I fit in all of this? You have me as your 3. NK preference above Lucienne. It doesn't make sense that you would peg her as the candidate despite you not favouring her NK over me.

And of course I'm waiting for objections. If people still want discussion time, we should have it.

Oman is at L-2. Your vote will not kill him. Rather than waiting for objections, explain to me why you think that it makes more sense to kill Oman than Orig (who you are "100%" certain of).

We have all the time in the world dybeck. I don't intend on moving any time soon.

Take a readthrough of Oman and orig's posts. They've both spent a lot of time talking about a lot of things, and have notably avoided talking about the issues that face each other.

Those issues being...?