Mini 1762: Game Over

[Elsa and Anna]

claim.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Perhaps you want to log onto your correct account?

[RadiantCowbells]

claim.

[GuyInFreezer]

Hello MoI

You listed kirroha as scum with a reason "VT crumb is not a towntell". Do you have any other reason than that?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So work has been a pain these last 12 hours but I finally carved out some free time to get my last 22ish pages in. Can't say that it has swayed my opinion to any significant degree. Especially today has been really unispired. If you are Town feel a bit of shame. If you are scum (and by this I mean Radient and K) congrats you and your partners are probably puffing out your chest in your QT.

I see there was a mass claim. I'm VT but given the one flip we know (3 shot JK) and the claimed 1 shot Vig it shouldn't surprise anyone. I'm curious what mislynch Radient is going to try to push through with his 'results'.

Actually it would be great if Radient went ahead and actually claimed targets for both nights. I'd really like to see if he can actually justify whatever he claims.

Hello MoI

You listed kirroha as scum with a reason "VT crumb is not a towntell". Do you have any other reason than that?

Of course. These are simply general catch-up posts. I'll walk Town through Kirroha's ISO tomorrow and highlight the salient points.

Hey Kirroha - where you been? I'm waiting for you to explain (or parrot whatever explanation Radient tries to feed you in the Scum QT) what I asked you about last page. Pretty large inconsistencies in your thought processes there I must say.

[RadiantCowbells]

Alright.
I'm positive that Magna is scum at this point but I'll move on.
I am a JOAT. 1-Shot GS, 1-Shot Cop, 1-Shot Commute.

I used my investigative abilities N1 and N2 on Ink and Implosion. Since I suspected that scum may have a doctor or godfather to counteract my abilities, I made that role cop claim to fish out a doc claim, who would basically be confirmed scum at the point of my claim.

VOTE: MagnaIllusion

Magna is either scum or so confbiased on me that he's beyond hope. He's our lynch today.

[GuyInFreezer]

so am I confirmed town

[Raskolnikov]

What's GS?

[implosion]

@Rask: gs is gunsmith.

Well this was a thrilling conclusion to the massclaim.

I'm not voting magna unless there's some damn good reason. RC and GIF are off the table too (and nino obviously). I guess that leaves rask/gr/synd/kirro. Magna, do you think 3-shot jk + 1-shot vig would be balanced in 13p? I guess it's possible if there are only 2 scum but if that's the case we could cross that bridge if the game doesn't end if we mislynch in what we thought was lylo.

Kirroha has done nothing since a week and a half ago (not that I have either). But i don't know if I'm going to have the willpower to actually solidify a read on her. She still did things d1 that pinged town. And GR still feels town. I think I lean vaguely toward voting Rask right now over synd. I have a better memory of the things that I thought pinged town from synd than from rask. Really though my reads are probably all shit right now and there's a pretty nominal chance of me ever having motivation to fix that concretely.

Magna if there's anything in particular from kirro that you want to point out other than the vt claim that would be nice. I don't think the claim itself was very towny but I think what made me feel kirro-town was the way she talked about the claim. It felt genuine/like it would be too bald-faced for scum.

[Raskolnikov]

If RC's not lying (and if neither gif/implosion are godfather) then the game's actually pretty easy.

It's 3 out of {MOI, syndesis, GR, and kirroha}
and I think it's unlikely GR and kirroha are on the same team which means its {MOI, GR, syn} or {MOI, kirroha, syn}

VOTE: MOI

[kirroha]

First, sorry for being inactive. It's the pre-exam rush and I'll replace out if needed.

Bluh

Since you appear to be around let me ask you som[tweet]ething I can't quite wrap my head around as from a Town player.

You claim as VT to bread-crumb VT. You say it can't come from scum because no-one backs off from VT lynches. People subsequently back off your lynch for said VT WIFOM claim.

You back of lynch on Golden Rooster late Day 1 (which went to No Lynch) for a VT claim. So you yourself just undercut your own WIFOM logic.

But then at the start of Day 2 you want to lynch someone else for crumbing. When you don't think they would crumb as a VT also. So your logic is hey that's not a VT crumb so let's lynch it?
[/tweet]
Please explain your though process because I am all ears on that.

How the heck would I know people would back off? People generally don't, which was what I pointed out. Yeah, like I said, it's ultimately still WIFOMy if you want to disregard it that way. But what I pointed out was that it was strategically very bad for scum to do it just for some WIFOM gambit when they could do literally anything else with a higher chance of success in getting their win con. Crumbing VT does nothing to get there except for some vague possibility of getting people to back off after a shouting match, whereas doing something else (e.g. claiming Doctor/Cop right before getting lynched) would be a lot more successful at either (1) automatically stopping the lynch, or (2) outing a real PR. Scum would want to keep their options open for the latter, and not engage in a super-obvious crumb early in the game that would eliminate the latter as an option.

As for the second question, what I disbelieved about tojam's VT crumb was the fact that I crumbed VT right before and people backed off. So the fact that tojam would subsequently crumb VT so immediately after that was very survivalistic. I didn't believe that for a second. It probably was survivalistic in any case, and such behaviour was more likely to come from scum than town.

Need to reread the past pages to get what's going on with this massclaim thing.

[Raskolnikov]

P.S. I don't think a godfather would necessarily have claimed doctor since
1) it would prevent scum from killing role cop (which they'd think you are)
2) them surviving next night or two would be suspicious af
3) too many roles in the setup at that point

[kirroha]

Should we just lynch GR or Syn today guys

[Raskolnikov]

Technically syndesis because GR has bad association with you, but moi is good for the same reasoning.

[Golden Robster]

I've lost my last shred of motivation if that wasn't clear

[MagnaofIllusion]

so am I confirmed town

Well aside from the fact that his claim seems pretty far fetched I’m wondering why you drew this conclusion given that Radient basically said he thinks his investigations can be compromised.

So please enlighten us on how you came to that conclusion.

Alright.
I'm positive that Magna is scum at this point but I'll move on.
I am a JOAT. 1-Shot GS, 1-Shot Cop, 1-Shot Commute.

I used my investigative abilities N1 and N2 on Ink and Implosion. Since I suspected that scum may have a doctor or godfather to counteract my abilities, I made that role cop claim to fish out a doc claim, who would basically be confirmed scum at the point of my claim.

VOTE: MagnaIllusion

Magna is either scum or so confbiased on me that he's beyond hope. He's our lynch today.

So much goodness to crunch in one post. Things I want to bring to everyone’s attention because I believe they are salient –

1. Note that the vote on me is effectively OMGUS. And note that he leaves himself a nice little escape hatch that actually isn’t true. Beyond hope to help Town would be unwilling to move from a lynch despite the fact it leads to a No Lynch. For example – Radiant’s play Day 1 surrounding BBT who was pretty clearly Town. I’d happily lynch Kirroha today also if every is going to buy Radiant’s fake-claim. More on that in a few lines. But back to the escape hatch – if I do get lynched today I’ll flip VT and then Radiant has already laid the groundwork to take no responsibility for yet another Town player he has pushed.

2. I’m not going to set-up bash too much (because that is how Town loses game instead of scum-hunting) but this claim pretty much reeks of fake-claim. Firstly it has two strong investigative shots which is pretty darn unusual for a JOAT. A Gunsmith / Cop with maybe a Tracker / Watcher? Much more believable. Secondly it is tailor made to explain why scum Radient survives tonight after his claim today “he commuted” which gets him to Day 4 to explain why he is still alive despite all his Appeal to Proficency he has been spouting about himself. Lastly he’s once again built in escape clauses to turn on either of the players he now claims are cleared in-case he needs to seal the win for his teammates (I believe scum have method to defeat me).

I'm not voting magna unless there's some damn good reason. RC and GIF are off the table too (and nino obviously). I guess that leaves rask/gr/synd/kirro. Magna, do you think 3-shot jk + 1-shot vig would be balanced in 13p? I guess it's possible if there are only 2 scum but if that's the case we could cross that bridge if the game doesn't end if we mislynch in what we thought was lylo.

I don’t think set-up bashing is too helpful given we have zero information about Mafia slots. But to answer your question – maybe. 3 Shot Jailkeep is more or less a full strength JK in a small game. The longer the game goes the weaker it is in comparison but how often do small games go more than 4 to 5 days on Mafiascum these days? Is a 1-Shot Vig more worthwhile than other full strength non-information roles? Maybe, depends on use. I could see Town with 3 shot JK and 1 shot Vig versus a team of Goons or perhaps a limited shot Mafia Rolecop.

If RC's not lying (and if neither gif/implosion are godfather) then the game's actually pretty easy.

It's 3 out of {MOI, syndesis, GR, and kirroha}
and I think it's unlikely GR and kirroha are on the same team which means its {MOI, GR, syn} or {MOI, kirroha, syn}

So I’ve been trying to figure out who make sense as a possible Radient / Kirroha partners. This post makes me think I should be delving back into your ISO given that your start out your post with the big fat IF then ignore that it is very possible Radiant is lying.

How the heck would I know people would back off? People generally don't, which was what I pointed out. Yeah, like I said, it's ultimately still WIFOMy if you want to disregard it that way. But what I pointed out was that it was strategically very bad for scum to do it just for some WIFOM gambit when they could do literally anything else with a higher chance of success in getting their win con. Crumbing VT does nothing to get there except for some vague possibility of getting people to back off after a shouting match, whereas doing something else (e.g. claiming Doctor/Cop right before getting lynched) would be a lot more successful at either (1) automatically stopping the lynch, or (2) outing a real PR. Scum would want to keep their options open for the latter, and not engage in a super-obvious crumb early in the game that would eliminate the latter as an option.

As for the second question, what I disbelieved about tojam's VT crumb was the fact that I crumbed VT right before and people backed off. So the fact that tojam would subsequently crumb VT so immediately after that was very survivalistic. I didn't believe that for a second. It probably was survivalistic in any case, and such behaviour was more likely to come from scum than town.

The whole first paragraph is a bucket of WIFOM. Were you coached on making that crumb because it would not be good scum play?

The second paragraph makes no sense from a Town perspective. In the first paragraph you go out of your way to say “Yeah, scum would rather claim a powerful role”. But then you want to lynch Tojam for not breadcrumbing a powerful role. You are contradicting yourself. Either scum would be more likely to fake-claim a role to draw out a Town PR / save their ass or they are not. You can’t have honestly suggest as Town you should be able to argue both sides of the discussion are valid but only for your particular analysis of the circumstances.

And I not you dodged answering why you backed off Golden when he claimed VT. Because again – you’ve diluted your own argument. If you think Golden is Town for claiming VT under pressure why wasn’t Tojam’s slot for effectively doing the same thing? Cognitive Dissonance on display.

[RadiantCowbells]

I believe that MOI has to be lynched before endgame because his reads are so bad and he's super invested in them.

Whether he's scum is academic frankly.

[kirroha]

What? I don't even get what you're saying, Magna. I thought I was pretty clear explaining that:

1. I thought my crumb was indecipherable, but it actually wasnt,
2. That was a stupid thing to do and I get it, I guess,
3. What else do you want me to say?

Who the hell would coach me to mess up this badly? Explain how this even benefits scum?

[Raskolnikov]

Even if that's what you think it's not the kind of thing you say to get other people to vote him

[kirroha]

Technically syndesis because GR has bad association with you, but moi is good for the same reasoning.

Frankly I kind of liked the rubixxx slot though.

[Raskolnikov]

Could easily do syn instead then

[GuyInFreezer]

Well aside from the fact that his claim seems pretty far fetched I’m wondering why you drew this conclusion given that Radient basically said he thinks his investigations can be compromised.

So please enlighten us on how you came to that conclusion.

It's more like "it'll be great if I was a confirmed town for that"

tbh, I don't think the claim is not that far-fetched because the JoaT had a GS and fishing for doctor when you have GS makes sense since for some reason vig-gs-scumdoc tend to be meta these days.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So let’s take a walk through Kirroha’s ISO to explain in some depth why I find her to be probable scum –

It starts small –

Pfffftt now won't it be funny if Radiant and Nino were really scumbuddies.

Is there daytalk in this game, by the way?

This the first line is fluff. But the second on a gut level is scum making a “Hey, I’m not informed because I don’t know if there is Daytalk” play. Because it is clearly stated in the OP that Daytalk is enabled. Trying too hard to appear uniformed.

Then we have these posts spread apart but tangentially related –

Scumclaims everywhere! This game is funny. Going to wait till more people confirm, or we're not getting much information with this so far.

I'm wracking my head right now wondering just what kind of pro-town motive can there be to BBT 'claiming scum' this early in the game. I'm not putting him at L-1 yet though, in case a new player comes in and random hammers. We need more input.

So at 54 Kirroha acknowledges that multiple people have claimed scum (including BBT and Radiant). And calls if funny.

Yet 21 posts later she’s wracking her head trying to determine the pro-town motivations for BBT. Doesn’t wrack her brain about everyone elses. Because she’s not actually worried about the issue but wants to position herself credibly to say “eh, I didn’t vote for BBT” if his lynch does get pushed through.

Furthermore the better question would have been “What would be the scum motivation for an RVS claim of scum” to which the answer is “None” making it a null-tell.

Kirroha/BBT are my primary scumreads atm.

On the basis that I asked questions about BBT? I'm feeling uncomfortable about his suggestion of Nino as a possible policy lynch, so I would be more than happy to vote him if he wasn't already at L-2. I'm curious as to whether Nino considers the same suggestion a scumtell, because that would reaffirm what I'm feeling from his post (i.e. trying to get a soft wagon started on Nino on the basis of 'policy'). Nino had 2 votes on her at that point, so I'm not buying BBT's implied "a wagon isn't going to start on you anyway" excuse.

Can't get much of a read on anyone else yet. I like Nino, though.

This is the post that in my initial read through that triggered my read on Kirroha. Nothing in this post suggests that she specifically finds BBT scummy. If fact she questions whether Nino (and is fishing for others opinion IMO) whether the policy lync h call is actually scummy. Yet she would be “happy” to vote for him except he is at L-2?

Why would she be happy to vote for someone she doesn’t even directly find scummy herself? Especially if she thinks it is too early for a lynch. This again is in my mind a positioning post – shoring up her doubt of BBT’s scumminess but leaving the path open to hop on that train if she fishes positive responses from others on the Policy Lynch issue.

Not feeling good about BBT but the fact that his wagon moved so fast worries me. There must be scum on that wagon for it to progress as fast as it did.

I need to sleep as well.

This more referential – for reference below is the MOD vote-count as it stood when Kirroha makes the “scum must be on the wagon” comment.

Vote Count 1.2

BlueBloodedToffee

(5)

: Raskolnikov, implosion, RadiantCowbells, Ninomasaki, I Am Innocent

(L-2)

So if she’s Town who actually believes this she thinks at least one of Rask, Implosion, Radiant, Nino or IamI is scum. This is more for you to notice who she doesn’t push / vote down the line. To my gut this is scum who knows a partners is on that early wagon and is positioning for Town cred if said partner or partners ever flip.

Sure enough her first post after this scum on wagon speculation is –

5 votes on me already? Not cool man, especially with the new confirmees jumping in without reason.

VOTE: kirroha

Syndesis explain.

Also consistent with this is the way she doubtcasts those on BBT's wagon.

Good job with the misrepresentation. That was an RVS joke vote, and it was on someone on

Nino's

wagon, not BBT's.

The ones who are sheeping Radiant and jumping from BBT to me right away are all not looking good, but looking even scummier are those who hopped in and voted me for no reason.

VOTE: ink for the blatant misrepresentation of my post. That's scummy as hell.

Gonna look back a bit more in the meantime, and off to work.

xiang'cao'nong'min

Firstly note she doesn’t question Radiant’s vote on her which was just as unexplained as Syndesis’s was. Second she has completely forgotten that she thinks scum was on the wagon and goes off attacking Ink who correctly pointed out that she has been casting doubt on BBT’s wagon.

So, kirroha is scum and BBT is town?

Oh look! I found BBT's scumbuddy.

Oh look now suddenly BBT is scum and has a buddy. Reminder – two posts ago she was worried that BBT’s wagon was scum driven and now suddenly he’s scum. No posts about why BBT is scum. Just that he is. Not a chain of posts that says Kirroha is actually scum-hunting.

In fact, the fact that BBT's wagon shifted so quickly elsewhere all of a sudden makes me think that there was scum on his wagon (and now on mine). First distance, then shift targets to a mislynch. This is if BBT is scum.

So once again claims scum is was on BBT’s wagon (but distancing) but now they’ve moved to her.

Vote Count 1.4
kirroha (5): RadiantCowbells, I Am Innocent, implosion, Syndesis, ink (L-2)

The common factors between the two wagons are Radiant, IamI and Implosion. We know that IamI is Town. Read through your ISO yourself and decide whether she pressures Radiant or Implosion at all. Hint – she doesn’t.

I’ll not copy 128 but it is such a wall of Appeal to Emotion that in my read-through notes it solidified my thoughts as follows “Oh, woe is me I suck at this game”. Also in 128 she votes outside of Radiant or Implosion while looking for the “scum pushing my lynch”.

I've crumbed my role early in the game but I'm not claiming until someone explains to me how I'm scummy when I'm pretty much one of the only ones trying to actually find scum. Jesus Christ.

Note – she actually didn’t crumb her role until 106 after she had already started picking up votes. Which is a mere 31 posts before this. Hardly “early in the game”.

For the mid-part of Day 1 after the pressure comes off her she pretty much parks her vote on Shortcut and directs most of her supposed scum-hunting on that slot. This is important to note for Day 2. Still not attention given to any of the three potential scum she mentioned earlier (Implosion, IamI and Radiant). In fact here are some examples of how she interacts with them Day 1 –

PEdit: (w.r.t. implosions post)
implosion I can spend an hour explaining why the heck a very badly made VT crumb+claim would make no sense coming from scum at this point in time, but I don't see the point of that right now. I think you're definitely tunneling, possibly moreso since you seem to think VTs are disposable. But just to reiterate how your theory about me being scum who just cleverly engineered this whole game doesn't make any sense:
-> Your entire theory is based on the fact that I failed to see how obvious my crumb was, which would not have happened as scum wherein I obviously would have put the crumb before my scumbuddies to check how obvious it is;
-> Your entire theory is also based on the fact that I claimed VT because it's the 'best claim to hide myself within a sea of townies' and save my own skin, when such a claim would have fallen apart at the merest Cop/Gunsmith check. If that was my purpose I'd have claimed Miller or Macho Townie w/ gun or something, or even Cop. VT makes no sense as a claim at this point in time, not at all tactically, and if I had scumbuddies they would have told me that.
-> Surely if I was smart enough to do all this convoluted shit I'll have been able to avoid being scumread in the first place?

Responding to a IamI request –

I didn't have any kind of read on Killthestory, but I get what you mean that his swap from scum!Kirroha to VI!Kirroha was way sudden and I also see no real basis for it. But I still did kind of find his attempts at getting people to pitch in quite genuine. Furthermore, I'm not sure why scum!Kill would want to pick a fight with an Ink/Innocent duo because I can't see what he can potentially get out of it. So I am still not sure about what I'm feeling about his slot. Yet I think at this point I'm damn well convinced that Shortcut is scum and that if Kill is scum too, he'll be scumbuddies with Shortcut.

Innocent, I still don't quite see what's so scummy about Kill. I know you have a case on him but I just can't seem to understand it. As far as I know, he scumread me then suddenly changed it to a VI read without any explanation, which is pretty darn scummy, but apart from that he's seemed relatively townish to me in his behaviour (demanding activity, etc), so I would really like it if you can explain to me what is it I'm not seeing. I will be happy to jump on the wagon with you if I can be convinced of your reads.

Maybe it's because I've stepped away from this game for a while, but I don't feel as assertive about my reads as I originally was. Like even the Shortcut slot is starting to make me feel uncertain. Damnit. If TaishoGal does not show up in the next 1-2 days though, I want to lynch her pronto.

Okay Radiant that's the fourth vote you've put on BBT today. So do you really see BBT as scum or is this just one of those flirting sessions that inevitably occurs whenever you and BBT are in a game together?

None of these posts are treating said prime scum suspects as if they were scum.

And I’d like to draw attention once again to the following theme Kirroha has been floating –

I find it kind of strange that even though generally quite a lot of people seem to agree that Shortcut might be a viable lynch today, it's so hard to form a wagon on him. On the other hand, wagons on BBT and me happened so quickly it's ridiculous. That alone is making me even more inclined to think Short is scum.

Essentially, if a lynch happens way too fast on D1, it's probably town, or scum being bussed. Either way we're playing into scum hands. That's making me iffy about lynching BBT.

So once again she re-iterates that those two early fast wagons (BBT and herself) were scum driven. And now that she dropped her “Ink and BBT are buddies” theme BBT is Town again. Yet as shown above she truly doesn’t believe this as she doesn’t pay any attention to those who would qualify as possible scum driving her and BBT.

Also note that scum bussing a buddy to lynch would be playing into scum’s hands per that post? Lol whut?

Day One ends with Kirroha having pushed the Shortcut / Golden slot as obvious scum for the bulk of the day. Golden claims VT and suddenly Kirroha backs off saying “Oh that was fast, must be Town”. I’ve already addressed that an immediate back-off from the slot for a VT claim is completely inconsistent with Kirroha’s stances around her crumb and implosion’s crumb. On a gut level I don’t see this a Town play.

It also ends without Kirroha having questions or scum-hunted IamI, Radiant or implosion. In fact when IamI is under pressure and self-votes to L-1 we get the following:

IAI you're not getting lynched today. Please get your vote on someone else and I'll follow you.

Why would Town Kirroha think this? He as I’ve pointed out fits the profile for scum who pushed both early wagons she claimed are scum driven. Yet no questions or hunting of IamI. And when IamI is primed for lynch she actively argues against it.

RC town. Nino town.

I'm going back to my shortcut read because heck. VOTE: Golden Robster

Also beeboy, your predecessor claimed a PR before he vanished. Do you stick by that?

So the BBT slot has been shot overnight. And flipped Town. Her conclusion that Radiant is Town makes no sense from a Town perspective. Town (as happened early Day 2) should suspect Radiant.

VOTE: beeboy

The more I think about it the less tojam's 'crumb' made sense.

If I were town PR I would never point out THIS. IS. A. CRUMB!!!! ever. It's like inviting a nightkill. And you know who isn't afraid of nightkills?

More ammo in the “Kirroha’s stances are scummy as heck surrounding this issue” armory. Again – beeboy’s slot did the same thing her slot did. And yet beeboy is scummy for it from whatever angle she comes at it.

Town: Rubixxx, RC, Nino
Lean Town: implosion, ink, IAI
????????: Golden Robster, Rasko, Syndesis
Scum: Beeboy

In no particular order. May change.

Reminder – Kirroha should be suspect of both Radiant and implosion for those early wagon pushes if she was actually scum-hunting the many times she floated that theory. Yet both are not in her danger categories of scum or ?????.

After this point we get a slew of proddodging and complete lack of scum-hunting from the slot. On a gut level this feels like scum who feels comfortably in control the game and doesn’t feel the need to phone in the faking. As shown in this post –

Intent to hammer lolilol

Claim robsters

“Look at me I can be all casual and lol. Meanwhile I forgot I already had a pretty solid stance

[MagnaofIllusion]

I believe that MOI has to be lynched before endgame because his reads are so bad and he's super invested in them.

Whether he's scum is academic frankly.

We could just lynch you instead if that's the standard. Because you were super-invested in that terrible BBT push Day 1 and we all see how that turned out. I appreciate that you can't actually justify things other than constant rhetoric so you keep going to the well.

I'll be happy to 1v1 you on this issue if you'd like. Game?

[MagnaofIllusion]

What? I don't even get what you're saying, Magna. I thought I was pretty clear explaining that:

1. I thought my crumb was indecipherable, but it actually wasnt,
2. That was a stupid thing to do and I get it, I guess,
3. What else do you want me to say?

Who the hell would coach me to mess up this badly? Explain how this even benefits scum?

I'll make it clear to you Kirroha - as I've highlighted in your ISO your stances regarding whether claiming VT or not are completely inconsistent and self-contradictory on multiple occasions. You don't have a stance you believe in. Your justification sways to whatever direction you need it to go for your current argument as opposed to being driven by logic. In short - you aren't looking for scum you are looking for whatever is most expidient to either save your neck or mislynch Town.

The last part is clearly not relevant - no-one coached you up to screw up. You did that all on your own. It doesn't benefit scum (as I feel you are pretty scummy) but as always scum don't play optimally.