Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #21!

Still exactly the same as Votecount #19 and #20!

Oman (2) - Gemelli, shaft.ed
dybeck (1) - vollkan
originality (1) - dybeck
Lucienne (1) - originality

Not voting: Lucienne, Elias_the_Thief, AlyG, Oman

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[dybeck]

Changing subjects, I will do the will of the town, EXCEPT if said will involves me killing myself or AlyG, because those are the only people I KNOW to be town, and in that case I would assume to know better then the town and make my own decision. Other then that, I follow your orders.

So you intend to 'no kill' tonight?

[vollkan]

So you intend to 'no kill' tonight?

Dybeck, we've been over this.

If he is mafia, he will kill anyone (aiming for the SK) regardless of what we say.

If he is SK, he will be desperately trying to kill the mafia. In fact, I really wonder if No Kill would even be more advantageous than a town kill.

If is town, he will follow consensus. By that, I mean there is a strong obligation for him to not kill, but he will not be auto-lynched if he does otherwise. This creates uncertainty. Uncertainty can only work in our favour because it makes Orig very likely to die by cross-fire.

[AlyG]

So you intend to 'no kill' tonight?

Dybeck, we've been over this.

If he is mafia, he will kill anyone (aiming for the SK) regardless of what we say.

If he is SK, he will be desperately trying to kill the mafia. In fact, I really wonder if No Kill would even be more advantageous than a town kill.

If is town, he will follow consensus. By that, I mean there is a strong obligation for him to not kill, but he will not be auto-lynched if he does otherwise. This creates uncertainty. Uncertainty can only work in ourfavour because it makes Orig very likely to die by cross-fire.

This^^

[dybeck]

So you intend to 'no kill' tonight?

Dybeck, we've been over this.

If he is mafia, he will kill anyone (aiming for the SK) regardless of what we say.

And if we order him to NoKill, and he doesn't follow, then we know we've got a scum.

If we tell him he's allowed to kill more pro-town players, then he'll just come back tomorrow and say "Gosh, I was convinced xxx was scum. How careless of me." again, and we'll be ANOTHER pro-towner down, with no more info on originality, and we'll be at lynch or lose. Unless the other scum group forego originality, in which case we'll ALREADY have lost.

[dybeck]

In fact, I really wonder if No Kill would even be more advantageous than a town kill.

This is interesting too. Do go on.

[AlyG]

An observation:

Oman, on page 28 i did a BIG analysis on every player in the game,i advise everyone to read it. here i attacked Oman for his bandwagonning and showed some examples. Now Oman's response was this:

I just want to make it noted that AlyG is only going after me since the bandwagon formed on me.

Hypocrit much?

He never defended himself the only thing he did was label me as scummy for attacking him by putting me at 4) on his list. I want to hear a response to this Oman. How can you explain this bandwagonning? Shaft.ed also made a list of all the times Oman had bandwagoned during D2 on page 36:

The bandwagoning history of Oman on D2.

So Oman starts to day with a vote on AlyG, a person he supported D1, quickly following vollkan's first post and ode to hurting AlyG.

Vote swings over to dybeck after his attempts at framing me for SK with a single tell don't go over so well.

Unvotes dybeck, then switches back to AlyG since we need to be more safe about the voting due to being in possible LyLo (yeah moving from a person with your 1 sole vote to someone with 2 is really safe).

Unvotes AlyG after the claim. Then immediately revotes after reading the scumminess of the claim post.

Unvotes AlyG after orig's claim.

Votes dybeck the exact post after vollkan's vote

Switches vote to orig after playing with maths (interesting that vollkan follows suit here).

Vollkan votes Oman for calling orig the SK with poor logic.

Unvotes saying it's very soon going back to dybeck or AlyG

Vollkan unvotes and switches to dybeck. The very next post (again) Oman follows suit.

I vote Elias for constant lurking in order to get him to post. The next time Oman posts in thread he votes Elias (seriously do you have a posting restriction or something?).

Oman then unvotes when vollkan points out that Elias stated he wouldn't be pressured.

Then the Oman attacks quoted above come into play calling him out for all these following votes.

2 Days later Oman returns with this post:

Okay I'm back. I shall attempt to scale the WALLZ OF TEXT tonight.

It's already been a day and still no response, i really want an explanation for this bandwagonning.

[vollkan]

In fact, I really wonder if No Kill would even be more advantageous than a town kill.

This is interesting too. Do go on.

Very well.

That was in the scenario that Orig is SK.

Presuming it is 5:3:1, if we mislynch today it will be 3:3:1 assuming that the mafia do not kill Orig (Orig will obviously have to act on the assumption he is not killed).

Thus, if Orig killed a townie, he would drop things to 2:3:1. As such, it would be No Lynch unless Orig joined with the mafia against the town. Thus, the only possible lynch result would be 1:3:1. Then, all the mafia have to do is NK the townie to make it 0:3:1. Orig's Nk makes it 0:2:1 = Mafia win.

Now, if Orig did not kill, things would remain at 3:3:1. As such, a mafia lynch is possible, though it requires total unanimity among the town and Orig's vote on top of that. Of course, even if things did drop to 3:2:1, Orig is very likely dead anyway. The point is, though, that his loss is not guaranteed under this scenario, whereas it is in the previous.

Thus, in the event that we mislynch, a no kill is better for Orig than a town kill.

What about if we lynch mafia today?

That drops it to 5:2:1

Well, if Orig killed a townie, he would drop things to 3:2:1. Again, this requires town unanimity and Orig's vote. If a lynch were achieved (of mafia), it would become 3:1:1. On N3, Orig might then be lucky enough to NK the mafia and not be NKed himself (VERY unlikely) which would make it 2:0:1, town wins since we just lynch Orig. If Orig NKed a town, it would become 1:1:1, (if Orig lived) which does not help Orig at all.

If Orig does not kill, it becomes 4:2:1. Mafia lynch makes 4:1:1. If Orig were incredibly lucky, he might survive to next day at 3:0:1, but he loses anyway.

Hence, what we see here is that if we mislynch today, SK Orig benefits by not NKing. Whilst SK Orig has already effectively lost this game, he cannot hope to win unless he No Kills tonight if we mislynch.

If we lynch mafia today, then NKing a townie is not significantly more helpful for Orig than NKing a mafia.

Of course, NKing a mafia is always Orig's best bet, since they present the biggest threat to him immediately.

The only conceivable scenario where Orig can win is if it becomes 1:0:1, which is not a likely outcome at all.

[vollkan]

Apologies for addressing these in reverse order, but my previous post is necessary for my answer here.

And if we order him to NoKill, and he doesn't follow, then we know we've got a scum.

If we tell him he's allowed to kill more pro-town players, then he'll just come back tomorrow and say "Gosh, I was convinced xxx was scum. How careless of me." again, and we'll be ANOTHER pro-towner down, with no more info on originality, and we'll be at lynch or lose. Unless the other scum group forego originality, in which case we'll ALREADY have lost.

SK Orig has already lost effectively. Thus, even though no kill is more advantageous than town kill, his best bet will be to kill mafia.

It is true, therefore, that if Orig does not NK, he is almost certainly town.

The thing I don't get though, dybeck, is that for all your insistence on lynching Orig, your main concern seems to be preventing him from NKing. You seem to be pushing for us to mandate no NK from dybeck when you should know full well that dybeck will only oblige with that if he is town

[shaft.ed]

The thing I don't get though, dybeck, is that for all your insistence on lynching Orig, your main concern seems to be preventing him from NKing. You seem to be pushing for us to mandate no NK from dybeck when you should know full well that dybeck will only oblige with that if he is town

I really don't find this hard to follow. If you were sure originality was scum but you could not get him lynched (as is the case here for dybeck) it seems as though the next best thing would be to require him to not NK. Therefore if he is scum he will either 1) be exposed as such following his unauthorized NK or 2) be forced into making a play that strongly favors the town by not NK'ing. I can see this course of action being taken by whatever faction in the game, so I don't see demanding his no-NK as being anti-town as you suggest. I personally would rather this course of action be taken, but am more inclined to give originality a threat of NK so that he gets a target on his back for the night. If I believed orig's claim less (as dybeck clearly does) I am pretty sure I'd be demanding a No-Kill from him tonight.


And what's with all of the switching out dybeck and originality, are you making a slip-up indicating that you and dybeck are buddies in some club that has NK abilities?

[Gemelli]

Vollkan, that is an extremely interesting analysis. It sounds like you are discussing a scenario where, instead of giving originality a consensus list, we explicitly tell him to No Kill. Is that accurate?

Let me think out loud at how this might play out in our potential scenarios:

(1) Originality is an SK, we lynch town: 4:3:1.

In this scenario, originality has no skin in the game, so to speak, and is equally as likely to kill town, kill mafia, or perform no kill. The mafia are most likely to target originality as a threat to their win condition. Results: Mafia kills originality, and we are at 4:2:0 (orig kills mafia) -or- 3:3:0 (orig kills town; town loses) -or- 4:3:0 (orig does not kill; lylo).

(2) Originality is an SK, we lynch mafia: 5:2:1.

Same basic situation as above. Results: Mafia kills originality, and we are at 5:1:0 (orig kills mafia) -or- 4:2:0 (orig kills town) -or- 5:2:0 (orig does not kill).

(3) Originality is mafia, we lynch town: 4:3:1.

In this scenario, the SK will most likely kill originality. Results: We move to 4:2:0 (mafia hit SK) or 3:2:1 (mafia hit town; lylo and likely town loss).

(4) Originality is mafia, we lynch SK: 5:3:0.

In this scenario, the mafia hit a townie. Results: we move to 4:3:0 (lylo), BUT we have confirmed that originality is mafia.

(5) Originality is mafia, we lynch mafia: 5:2:1.

In this scenario, the SK will most likely nightkill orig per the logic above. Results: we move to 4:2:1 (mafia hit town) -or- 5:2:0 (mafia hit SK).

(6) Originality is vig, we lynch town: 5:3.

We have told originality NOT to perform a night kill, and he complies. The mafia nightkills a town power role. Results: We move to 4:3 (lylo).

(7) Originality is vig, we lynch mafia: 5:2.

We have told originality NOT to perform a night kill, and he complies. The mafia nightkills a town power role. Results: We move to 4:2.

It seems to me that the mafia would prefer to allow orig to make a nightkill if originality is indeed a vig, AND if there is ample evidence to suggest that originality might target a townie tonight (based on the town consensus list and originality's stated opinions). This allows them to focus on our claimed tracker tonight, allow originality to kill a town role, and then generate renewed suspicion on originality tomorrow morning.

From that perspective, it certainly seems like pushing originality towards a no-kill action tonight -- as opposed to a broader choice -- is a reasonable argument. I'm not 100% sold on it yet, but the logic seems right to me.

[dybeck]

How does the math look if we no-lynch?

[shaft.ed]

How does the math look if we no-lynch?

I haven't done the math, but I would totally oppose a no-lynch unless the numbers are screaming in the towns favor. Reason being D1 gave us no voting patterns due to ryan's BS and a no-lynch will give us just as little information. So the town goes into D3 blind. That seems like a very sketchy suggestion, and I'm surprised you wouldn't run the math yourself before making such a statement just because of how scummy it looks.

[dybeck]

You're totally right that Day 1 was more or less a complete loss, but I think we have a lot of voting info to go on, and this day is far from over yet.

I'm not advocating a no-lynch, but we know it's the only way to definitely avoid a loss tonight, so I think it's worth running the numbers if anyone can be bothered. It doesn't really make sense to dismiss anything out of hand. We may as well figure out the implications of a no-lynch before deciding. If it doesn't work, we won't do it.

[shaft.ed]

So I guess with orig we have these three basic scenarios:

Orig is mafia:

We have to have a SK or unclaimed vig in the game (assuming the latter is not the case). SK pretty much has to kill orig tonight in order to stay in the game. The SK knows this and the mafia know this so our directing orig's NK in any way shape or form is a red herring since orig will not be alive tommorow to answer for it.

Orig is SK:

Mafia may kill orig depending on how immediate of a threat he may pose. This scenario would be the least likely for the mafia to kill in my opinion becuase at least the SK and mafia have eradicating the town in common, whereas the vig's town alignment poses more of a threat. In addition, the mafia can work with the town to lynch a SK whereas they would not do so with a confirmed vig. So this scenario is where a killing list would be most effective since the town wants orig to be NK'd and the surest way for orig to be NK'd is if he directly threatens the scum. Looking at the numbers we are likely at 4:3:1 in wcs. Mafia can then make the game 3:3:1 or 4:3:0 with their night action. The latter is a SK auto-loss so won't be considered. The former could turn into 2:3:1 or 3:2:1 for the SK with a NK. 2:3:1 is totally unwinnable for the SK, and in 3:3:1 he'd need mafia lynch, then NK mafia with mafia NK'ing townie just to make it 2:1:1. In 2:1:1 the SK can only win by either getting the mafia lynched, or by getting a townie lynched and NK'ing the mafia without being NK'd himself (which cannot happen because the mafia know who he is). Whether the townies will help him lynch the mafia is uncertain because they can't win with either a mafia or SK lynch. Their best bet is to force no lynch and hope for crosskills. In any case the SK is nearly certain to lose if he doesn't kill tonight following a mislynch of town. If he kills a townie following a mislynch he loses for certain and if he happens to get mafia (3/7 odds) then he is still in a very difficult situation 3:2:1 where he needs to lynch mafia D3, kill mafia N3 while mafia kill town (or any combination of those deaths) to end up in a prisoners dilemma (1:1:1) which his odds of winning are pretty much non-existant. So in essence with a town mislynch today the SK will have pretty much lost what the SK does will be in desparation to stay alive and hope to get lucky. I don't know if directing his actions will be that informative and they will probably be fatal to the town if he miskills.
*Side note, if it is in fact a 9:2:1 or 8:2:2 set-up the mafia will certainly take down any other killing role in the game so orig's actions would be of no consequence to discovering his alignment or baiting scum cross-fire so No Kill would be in town's interest.

Orig is vig:

Then the town would prefer that he not be NK'd. Also in this scenario we are playing with a simple 9:3 set-up. A miskill after a mislynch takes us to a town loss and after a mafia lynch from a decent chance of winning into LyLo. Here obviously a No-Kill would be the best strategy for the town.

So in reviewing all of this I think it's best to direct orig for an absolute No-Kill. If he is mafia the SK will kill him anyway. If he is SK he's desperate, but I think the mafia would be likely to want him dead (but unfortunately maybe not tonight). If he's the vig he shouldn't be killing anyway. I realize this opens up the threat of losing our outed tracker, but I still think that SK/vig orig can pose enough of a threat the mafia to at least make that decision difficult for scum. And I'm still open for discussion if anyone has alternate numbers to run in the SK scenario.

[Gemelli]

So in reviewing all of this I think it's best to direct orig for an absolute No-Kill. If he is mafia the SK will kill him anyway. If he is SK he's desperate, but I think the mafia would be likely to want him dead (but unfortunately maybe not tonight). If he's the vig he shouldn't be killing anyway.

I'm leaning in this direction, too. Also, note that from the mafia's perspective, they would have no way of knowing if originality is SK or vig. If they leave him alone tonight, it's a huge gamble on their part that he is actually an SK.

And dybeck, I can't help but suspect that a no-lynch would be a bad play for the town, regardless of what we tell originality to do tonight. Doesn't that essentially put us back into the same situation we have now, but with one or two fewer players on the town side?

I'll try to do some math on this later; work is heavy today.

[originality]

Call me crazy, but it looks like the reason dybeck wants a no-NK so bad is because his ass would be on the line otherwise. (Not that I'm against a no-kill, but he seems to want it for reasons other then the general benefit of the town)

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

And regarding my super logical post of why I can't be mafia. How is it WIFOM, vollkan? The mafia would pick someone not suspicious to do their NK, its how it works, period. And I was totally on the spotlight, so it couldn't have been me.

[shaft.ed]

And regarding my super logical post of why I can't be mafia. How is it WIFOM, vollkan? The mafia would pick someone not suspicious to do their NK, its how it works, period. And I was totally on the spotlight, so it couldn't have been me.

I presonally wouldn't call it WIFOM. There's no way that you could have expected to be detected killing anybody via an unconfirmed tracker. And WIFOM really only works if you expect to be seen doing said action, then you can say "why would I have done that if I were scum?" That said you may have planned to be the killer in advance just in case you were the tracker so that you could then say "why would scum send there most likely suspect out to get caught by a tracker?" But I'd say scum would much rather not get caught by sending in their least suspected player, then have this incredibly flimsy argument in the event you were caught. Also being that it took you 16 or so pages and the towns obvious choice not to kill you to even make this point, I would surmise such a strategy was not planned in advance. But it's a far cry from super logical, just a bit of evidence in your favor.

[Oman]

AlyG, you want an explaination of my bandwagoning? I'm a bandwagoner, its what I do. My playstyle: BANDWAGON! My scumhunting method: BANDWAGON! My favourite colour: BANDWAGON!

I've been lynched for it before, but its like....like....well its like Albert B Rampage's playstyle being absolute insanity, he gets lynched for it, but he won't change it.

I simply feel that pressure from votes is the most effective tool in outing scum. Voting paterns, etc.

[AlyG]

AlyG, you want an explaination of my bandwagoning? I'm a bandwagoner, its what I do. My playstyle: BANDWAGON! My scumhunting method: BANDWAGON! My favourite colour: BANDWAGON!

I've been lynched for it before, but its like....like....well its like Albert B Rampage's playstyle being absolute insanity, he gets lynched for it, but he won't change it.

I simply feel that pressure from votes is the most effective tool in outing scum. Voting paterns, etc.

That's not a good explanation at all. You like to do it?. It seems to be, you just made that up because you didn't REALLY have an explanation. If that's your playstyle why didn't you tell us earlier when you were attacked for it? No you ignored it, like you have ignored other attacks. And if you are telling the truth look at Shaft.ed's list of your bandwagonning and look at the hole you have dug yourself into. And you never told us you do it for Voting patterns e.t.c. that doesn't help your case much either.

Overall, i'm dissapointed in your response and i think it's far-fetched to be doing this on purpose. I said i would vote for someone and now i am so

Vote: Oman

[Oman]

Yeah, I think you need to see my other games if you don't believe that. I have not played a single game (bar my first one) where I didn't wagon prolifically.

[vollkan]

So in reviewing all of this I think it's best to direct orig for an absolute No-Kill. If he is mafia the SK will kill him anyway. If he is SK he's desperate, but I think the mafia would be likely to want him dead (but unfortunately maybe not tonight). If he's the vig he shouldn't be killing anyway. I realize this opens up the threat of losing our outed tracker, but I still think that SK/vig orig can pose enough of a threat the mafia to at least make that decision difficult for scum. And I'm still open for discussion if anyone has alternate numbers to run in the SK scenario.

I read your analysis and I think that you are correct here and that we have finally determined the best approach to make. We should be demanding that Orig does not commit a NK.

The earlier reasoning for demanding No Kill was incomplete, since it only emphasised the consequences of kills. Here, we have accounted for the possibilities.

Obviously, the numbers change if we lynch mafia today, but not so much that I think there is any substantial advantage to a kill.
If we lynch mafia,
We have 6:2 or 5:2:1.
With no Orig NK, D3 opens at:
5:2 or 4:2:1 (ignoring where orig dies, since he won't account for this)
With Orig NK of mafia, D3 opens at:
5:1 or 4:1:1
With Orig NK of town, D3 opens at:
4:2 (LYLO or 3:2:1.

In the case of Orig being vig, No NK puts us one mislynch off LYLO, as does a NK of mafia. Of course, the NK of Mafia makes us one lynch away from a win also, but the potential cost is to put us into LYLO.

The SK scenarios re much more variable.

I do have something to add:
The obvious thing which which we have all been overlooking is that the mafia do not know Orig's alignment either. Thus, they cannot be certain of his actions and, therefore, in that regard the fact that Orig NKed Carrot yesterday making his alignment even more ambiguous almost serves as a threat in itself. Orig could be SK to them and, thus, that prospect alone poses a threat to them, since it makes a mafia loss by the end of N3 quite a foreseeable possibility.

[dybeck]

So how about it, originality, you down with a "no kill" tonight?

[Oman]

I want to know if Orig is killing or not. Who he kills, as vollkan stated, should remain an element of wonder and mystery. But whether or not he kills is different.

[originality]

I'm down.