Open 20 - Pie E7 (Game over) - before 453

Aimee · Post Post #575 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:03 am

Patrick wrote:Aimee, if Zindaras is scum, who's his buddy?

I'd need to re-read. But I'd most advocate Skruffs, mainly due to the seeming alliance which formed between himself and IH. However, I'd definitely need to re-read to see if I had missed something.

Zindie, I notice you completely ignore when I asked you to explain why Paradox's FoSes of Ripley and Patrick were justified. Stuck?

Ripley wrote:I see Patrick/Aimee/Zindaras have been doing the dance of ruling thselves out in all possible pairings due to being online at the same time and not lynching me. However, any of these posts could just as well be a message to a scum partner: "I'm still here... Skruffs isn't around, let's go for it."

I don't know why I'm being accused of this (if I am being). It's mainly Patrick who is (and I'm not really seeing why it would discount you anyway.)

Ripley · Post Post #576 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:24 am

Aimee wrote:
Ripley wrote:I see Patrick/Aimee/Zindaras have been doing the dance of ruling thselves out in all possible pairings due to being online at the same time and not lynching me. However, any of these posts could just as well be a message to a scum partner: "I'm still here... Skruffs isn't around, let's go for it."
I don't know why I'm being accused of this (if I am being). It's mainly Patrick who is (and I'm not really seeing why it would discount you anyway.)

Accusation's a bit of a strong word. I wasn't accusing anybody of anything, just pointing out that the claims that "X and I can't be scum together" aren't necessarily proved. You are right to say that you didn't make any of these claims, it was Zindaras (once) and Patrick (three times) - wow, he really was keen. I think there's actually a case to be made against the Patrick/Zindaras pairing, because after the posts made by you that cause Patrick and Zindaras to pop up and call "Not scum with Aimee!" you don't post again for some hours, so you might not have been available to pick up on the cue to go for the lynch, if cue there was. Patrick and Zindaras however clearly know they are online together and posting in the thread together.

I don't understand your final comment. I hadn't claimed that it discounted me.

Patrick · Post Post #577 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:42 am

Heh, I guess I was keen. Still, I think that kind of thing is important, and certainly has been in some of my previous games. Based on timings of their posts, I haven't ruled out Aimee/Zindaras, but Zindaras did ask for a Skruffs unvote which makes me feel a bit better.

Currently I'm becoming more convinced it's either Skruffs/Zindaras or Aimee/Ripley.

Skruffs · Post Post #578 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 12:36 pm

Are you basing that on IH's backing me up when Ripley/Aimee were attacking me at the start of hte day?
Because Zindaras is not nearly as supportive of me.

Patrick · Post Post #579 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 12:56 pm

I was basing it more on a reason I gave a long time ago: Simenon showed obvious favouritism for IH around yesterday's deadline. He voted Paradoxombie who he claimed to find townish, over IH who he hadn't given any opinion of, when both were at 2 votes. His claimed reasoning was, "Gotta lynch someone" which didn't explain why he picked Paradox over IH. He later claimed he found IH even more townish than Paradox, which I'm not sure I buy.

Ripley · Post Post #580 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 1:09 pm

Patrick wrote:I was basing it more on a reason I gave a long time ago: Simenon showed obvious favouritism for IH around yesterday's deadline. He voted Paradoxombie who he claimed to find townish, over IH who he hadn't given any opinion of, when both were at 2 votes. His claimed reasoning was, "Gotta lynch someone" which didn't explain why he picked Paradox over IH. He later claimed he found IH even more townish than Paradox, which I'm not sure I buy.

Which reminds me of something I remember noticing during a reread some time ago; they weren't both on 2 votes. IH was only on one vote when Simenon voted Paradoxombie. You'd better double check this but I'm fairly sure.

Patrick · Post Post #581 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 1:19 pm

Oh you seem to be right. I don't think it changes the point too much though. Very soon after, IH was put at 2 votes, so Simenon could have voted him if he was voting just to obtain a lynch.

Zindaras · Post Post #582 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2007 6:54 pm

Aimee wrote:Zindie, I notice you completely ignore when I asked you to explain why Paradox's FoSes of Ripley and Patrick were justified. Stuck?

I think Paradox FoSsed Ripley and Patrick because he felt they were defending Simmy from him. And I can see why he'd have felt that way, and why he would've FoSsed them. I wouldn't have done it myself...but that's something different entirely.

Skruffs · Post Post #583 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 2:05 am

No, patrick, the point doesn't hold true. You said that Simenon could have voted either because they were both at two. Only one was at two, though, and that is the person he voted for - if IH went to two shortly thereafter, that's still after Simenon decided his vote, which doesn't make sense.

Besides, if you are going to look at voting history as reasons to judge people, you have basically cleared Ripley, who, as stated before, made sure to only vote once in the entire day - a hammer on Paradoxombie.

Here's what happened so everyone doesn't have to reread, starting when IH replaced into the game:

JordanA24 (2): Simenon, Patrick
IH (1): Jordan24
Patrick (1): IH

IH replaces in, and unvotes
ih votes paradox
aimee votes paradox

JordanA24 (2): Simenon, Patrick
Paradoxombie (2) : IH, aimee
IH (1): Jordan24

simenon switches to paradoxombie
ripley mentions speedlynch

JordanA24 (1): Patrick
Paradoxombie (2) : IH, aimee, simenon
IH (1): Jordan24

paradox votes IH

JordanA24 (1): Patrick
Paradoxombie (3) : IH, aimee, simenon
IH (2): Jordan24, paradox

patrick unvotes jordan

Paradoxombie (3) : IH, aimee, simenon
IH (2): Jordan24, paradox

ripley hammers paradoxombie

Paradoxombie (4) : IH, aimee, simenon, ripley
IH (2): Jordan24, paradox

SO patrick, I have ato ask why you are so suspicious of Simenon for voting Paradoxombie when someone else (you or ripley) could have voted IH to put the two wagons at even votes?

minor fos: Patrick

Skruffs · Post Post #584 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 2:06 am

Rather, simenon was on one of two wagons that were at two already - voting paradoxombie moved one wagon to 3 and dropped the other one.

Patrick · Post Post #585 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 2:53 am

Skruffs wrote:No, patrick, the point doesn't hold true. You said that Simenon could have voted either because they were both at two. Only one was at two, though, and that is the person he voted for - if IH went to two shortly thereafter, that's still after Simenon decided his vote, which doesn't make sense.

IH did get to two votes shortly after, and at that point Simenon could have voted him, putting him at 3 instead of Paradoxombie. His reason for not doing so was that he thought IH looked even more protown than Paradoxombie; but I suspect that may be made up. What doesn't make sense to you?

Skruffs wrote:Besides, if you are going to look at voting history as reasons to judge people, you have basically cleared Ripley, who, as stated before, made sure to only vote once in the entire day - a hammer on Paradoxombie.

What the hell? How did you work this one out exactly? Why would a lack of votes be used to clear someone?

Skruffs wrote:SO patrick, I have ato ask why you are so suspicious of Simenon for voting Paradoxombie when someone else (you or ripley) could have voted IH to put the two wagons at even votes?

Explained above, his explanation for voting Paradoxombie over IH looked like something he made up after the fact. I think "so suspicious" is exagerating it though. I noted it as a possible connection between him and IH.

Ripley · Post Post #586 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 6:14 am

Unless people plan to leap into action at the last minute, which I would guess is unlikely on a Saturday evening/night, this game is drifting towards (a) an automatic scum win by failure to get enough votes together for a lynch, or (b) a scum win by my lynch as the only way to avoid (a), no other candidate being available. Anybody who's protown and doubts my guilt needs to be willing to act. Doing nothing won't work. Quite probably, leaving it till tomorrow won't work.

Aimee, you said (Post 558) that you were unlikely to vote for anybody but Zindaras today. Is this still the case, and when can we expect your vote?

Patrick, you still, as far as I'm aware, consider Aimee and Zindaras as more suspicious than myself and Skruffs. With deadline looming tomorrow, can you give some indication of your voting intentions?

Zindaras, is there any possibility of your finding the time to read the game tonight? Regardless of the answer to that, can you give any idea of who you're willing to vote for?

Skruffs, is your vote on me now set in stone?

Zindaras · Post Post #587 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:38 am

At the moment, I'm willing to vote for Aimee. That's basically all I want to.

I will finish as much of the thread as I can, but I also have Lorwyn prerelease (it's in-store, which is why it's a week later) tomorrow, so I won't have too much time.

Skruffs · Post Post #588 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:47 am

Patrick wrote:
Skruffs wrote:No, patrick, the point doesn't hold true. You said that Simenon could have voted either because they were both at two. Only one was at two, though, and that is the person he voted for - if IH went to two shortly thereafter, that's still after Simenon decided his vote, which doesn't make sense.
IH did get to two votes shortly after, and at that point Simenon could have voted him, putting him at 3 instead of Paradoxombie. His reason for not doing so was that he thought IH looked even more protown than Paradoxombie; but I suspect that may be made up. What doesn't make sense to you?

Yes, but You could have voted IH, too. Or Ripley could have. Etc, etc. Why is Simenon not changing his vote to IH somehoe more suspicious than anyone else not changing their vote to IH?

Patrick wrote:
Skruffs wrote:Besides, if you are going to look at voting history as reasons to judge people, you have basically cleared Ripley, who, as stated before, made sure to only vote once in the entire day - a hammer on Paradoxombie.
What the hell? How did you work this one out exactly? Why would a lack of votes be used to clear someone?

It wouldn't, unless you are going to use someone's voting pattern to decide they are guilty. Someone with no voting pattern (Ripley) would therefore have no trackable pattern with which to judge him by, and thus, you can get no read on him. Thus, you can't really use voting as a judge in deciding his alignment. Follow?

Patrick wrote:
Skruffs wrote:SO patrick, I have ato ask why you are so suspicious of Simenon for voting Paradoxombie when someone else (you or ripley) could have voted IH to put the two wagons at even votes?
Explained above, his explanation for voting Paradoxombie over IH looked like something he made up after the fact. I think "so suspicious" is exagerating it though. I noted it as a possible connection between him and IH.

But if that's the case, what about Aimee and IH's votes on Paradox?They came almost back to back on each other.

Ripley - Nope. But I'm pretty certain you are scum, also, more so than most others. All the reasons have been discussed before - I don't know who is your partner, I'm leaning towards Aimee, but it could be Zindaras and Aimee, or you and Patrick. I feel PAtrick is town but it's strange that he's started picking at me so soon after Zindaras did and so close to deadilne.

Zindaras · Post Post #589 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:59 am

We have 24 hours as of this post, if I'm reading the deadline right. CTD, could you confirm that?

Ripley · Post Post #590 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:04 am

I thought it was 25 hours from now, so I'll second the request for a confirmation of the exact time.

Zindaras · Post Post #591 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:24 am

Aimee votes Paradox in 185. I think she's overstating her case here. I don't think that the things she raises are solid scumtells. 186 may be a good one to remember. The opinions of a dead townie (even if he is misguided) are good to keep in mind.

Paradoxombie wrote:It's subjective whether or not Simeonon was anti-town, but I feel all of my actions were justified since then considering I see it as anti-town. It seemed like you two were criticizing my logic(which seems pretty airtight to me) with little explanation. That would be FOS worthy in my opinion. If I had the wrong idea(that is, you actually just disagree with the basis of my logic and not the logic itself) then consider it anulled.

I think this is a good explanation of his FoSses.

Jordan's 191 would be worthy of a FoS if he weren't dead. Same for 208. My predecessor is having a brain-fart with his attacks on Paradox. I'm noting Post 220 as Simmy defending Paradox. I think Patsy's 223 is solid.

I need sleep now. Suspicion list:

Aimee

Simenon
Ripley

Patrick

CrashTextDummie · Post Post #592 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:35 am

Zindaras wrote:We have 24 hours as of this post, if I'm reading the deadline right. CTD, could you confirm that?

Correct.

Patrick · Post Post #593 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:45 am

Skruffs wrote:Yes, but You could have voted IH, too. Or Ripley could have. Etc, etc. Why is Simenon not changing his vote to IH somehoe more suspicious than anyone else not changing their vote to IH?

Like I said, his explanation was dodgy. That is, I'm not entirely sure I could see him thinking that as a protown player.

Skruffs wrote:It wouldn't, unless you are going to use someone's voting pattern to decide they are guilty. Someone with no voting pattern (Ripley) would therefore have no trackable pattern with which to judge him by, and thus, you can get no read on him. Thus, you can't really use voting as a judge in deciding his alignment. Follow?

This seems a bit simplistic as a way of looking at it. The fact that I point out something about Simenon's voting that I didn't like towards the end of day 1 (and his susequent explanations), doesn't suddenly mean that I can only use voting patterns as my method for finding scum.

Skruffs wrote:But if that's the case, what about Aimee and IH's votes on Paradox?They came almost back to back on each other.

Neither Aimee or IH expressed the opinion that Paradoxombie was protown.

Skruffs, I don't think I've really started "picking at you". The point I've elaborated for you is something I said a long time ago, and you're the one who's pressed the issue.

Anyway, with deadline about 24 hours away, I can't really put it off any longer.

Vote: Aimee

It's pretty tough choosing between her and Zindaras, and neither look or feel town to me, but I don't think it's likely that they're scum together. So I have to pick one. My main concern right now is that Zindaras may be buddying up to me; he's done it once before as scum afterall. But Aimee feels off in this game. I can live with it if this vote ends up losing the game, even if I will feel a bit guilty about lynching Aimee.

Ripley · Post Post #594 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:57 am

My thoughts on our predicament (a bit rushed)....

Patrick is clearly not going to be lynched today. The only way we can win if Patrick is scum is to lynch his partner today and lynch Patrick tomorrow. I believe whoever Patrick was scum with he would easily survive tomorrow in that situation. Players' opinions of other players are entrenched and well known. For example, Skruffs would clearly vote either Aimee or myself rather than Patrick. Zindaras and Aimee would vote each other rather than Patrick. So I'm thinking if Patrick is scum we're probably screwed whatever we do, so I may as well assume he's town.

Also, I've checked that period where Zindaras and Patrick clearly both knew they were posting together (around 12.09 pm Wednesday) and Skruffs didn't post anything that day until 1.46 pm. So they had a clear run at it and I can see no reason why they wouldn't just have lynched me then to win the game. It's not possible to rule out Aimee combinations by the same logic though.

Aimee and Zindaras are according to recent statements only willing to vote for each other. Obviously there's a difference between saying something and actually doing it, but it seems reasonable to assume they're unlikely to be scum together (the possibility of their having co-ordinated sufficiently well to lynch me by now, if they were, is confirming evidence for this). If they're both town we're screwed; all three townies must vote together to win. So assume one is town and one is scum. Since I'm already assuming Patrick is town, if those two do go on and vote for each other I think my best play is to vote with Patrick, although if he votes for Aimee we're likely to lose regardless of her alignment, since her scum partner, if she's scum, has done such a good job of encouraging the Aimee/Ripley scum pair theory that I won't survive for five minutes tomorrow.

Slightly complicating this is Skruffs, currently voting for me. If Skruffs is town and leaves that vote in place we are, yet again, screwed. I can do nothing other than hope he's scum, but even so, assuming Aimee and Zindaras vote for each other I still have to vote with Patrick.

I just hit Preview and so for the first time have seen Patrick's post and vote. If there's any flaw in my reasoning above (highly possible, as I said it was done in a rush) please feel free to point it out.

Patrick · Post Post #595 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:00 pm

Mafia is such a hard game

Zindaras, why does my Post 223 stand out as solid? It seemed like a pretty run of the mill post to me. Why shouldn't I believe that you're just buddying up to me as you did in vengeful mafia?

Ripley · Post Post #596 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:42 pm

I think Zindaras has gone for the night. If you're seriously concerned about the buddying up why would you not unvote until you get a reply from him? You say he's got form... and I agree the post of yours he picked out for praise is entirely unremarkable.

Patrick · Post Post #597 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:53 pm

I think the chances of a quicklynch while I'm asleep are minimal. For timezone reasons I simply can't see a Skruffs/Zindaras team speedlynching, nor a Ripley/Skruffs team, which I simply can't see existing in any case. At a pinch a Ripley/Zindaras scumteam could, though if that team exists we're likely losing anyway. But I suppose there's nothing to lose by unvoting, as I'm around most of the day tomorrow.

Unvote

Skruffs · Post Post #598 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 7:24 pm

Do not let scum autowin. Loss through mislynch is prefrable to loss through nolynch.

Ripley's comments about petrick may be laying ground for wifom in the morning. Patrick/ripley pairing was first suspicion, not completely written out. I really hope all townies put a vote on someone by deadline...

Please let it be ripley.

Zindaras · Post Post #599 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 8:25 pm

Patrick: This game can't be compared to Vengeful. In Vengeful, my strategy was completely different. In Vengeful, all I did was buddy up to IH and make it look like he was my godfather (which means that I was actively trying to make myself look like scum). I also made IH think Fircoal was scum. That was all I did. What I said about the rest was irrelevant.

I believe the last game we played together was Assassins in the Palace. Right? If my memory serves me well, I didn't touch you with a finger there.

My metagame tells on players do evolve, you know.