Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[shaft.ed]

Yeah I know it bugs you. And I should probably be buttering you up. It seems that

when I respect you

, you go off the idea of lynching me,

Show me anywhere you have respected my opinion and I'll be shocked. The only times I get off your case are when 1) Oman is acting more scummy, 2) you say things that make sense for the town.

and when I shine you on,

you tirelessly campaign for my lynch

.

Find me one time where I have campainged for your lynch since the originality-AlyG claimfest. You likely didn't notice that I was the one calling for a halt on voting while Oman and vollkan where speculating and tossing votes around the majority of which for you. And I did this repeatedly. I seriously don't know why you have fabricated instances of other people's actions this whole game.

But giving you information is counter-productive, since you've apparently

determined to believe the exact opposite of what I think

. So I'm afraid I'm going to have to continue to shine you on and risk the fact that my bandwagon will grow.

The only times I have taken a stance the exact opposite of you are when you are playing careless by exaggerating previous events or flip-flopping your own opinion. And I have always backed up my statements with references to in game activity.

When I think you're really listening, and not just seeking words of mine to twist in order to get me lynched, I'll engage with you.

There you go again. When have I twisted anybody's words. Not even your words, but anybody's words. Please point this out instead of just making up events that have never happened.

It's mindboggling that you think originality, who we know for a fact strangled a townie last night, is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli.

I've never meant to imply originality is less scummy. I've made it quite clear in my previous reasoning that I find his claim to be most probable if he is town. And I find it incredibly likely if he is an antitown killing role, he will be dead tonight. Addintionally, leaving him alive makes it much more likely our outed Tracker will survive tonights hostilities. In my previous posts I have stated I am comfortable running the gambit where we leave orig alive for crossfire bait in the night, and clearly said I am not comfortable forcing this proposition on the town. Others in the town have agreed with this assessment drawing their own conclusions from the positions that have been put forth.

[dybeck]

You never meant to imply that originalty is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli?

So originality is what? More scummy? Equally scummy?

[originality]

It's mindboggling that you think originality, who we know for a fact strangled a townie last night, is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli.

Look, mistakes happen ok. I'm sure I'm not the first vig to accidently kill a townie.

And as we've been saying for a while now, In all probability I will get killed tonight, so why the hurry to lynch me? This is one of the facts you've been ignoring.

[dybeck]

Because we've lost one townie, I don't want to lose another. Next time it could be a power role.

Originality, give me your word that you'll no-kill tonight, as almost everyone has said that they believe is the best idea, and I'll not mention your lynch again.

Do you agree with the town that we should no-kill? Or not?

If not, do you have a specific reason why you think you're right and we're wrong?

[originality]

I don't disagree, but the whole reason we are doing a list is so there is no set action for me tonight, otherwise I'm too predictable for the mafia.

[dybeck]

And what use would they make of this information?

What advantage does it give us to have you killing unpredictably?

[shaft.ed]

You never meant to imply that originalty is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli?

So originality is what? More scummy? Equally scummy?

Good job once again. Way to ignore everything I pointed out in my last post. I will assume your lack of comment to mean that you do not dispute that you haven't respected my opinion, I haven't campaigned for your lynch, you have fabricated events, I was correct in pointing out flaws in your arguments, and I haven't twisted anybodies words.

In response to your little game of gotcha. If you had taken the time to actually read any of my posts, you would have noticed this list in reply to Gemelli:

Shaft.ed, originality: Who would be your top 2 choices for lynching tonight, and why?

Right now I don't think I have only 2 to pick from. Honestly the majority of the players in this game are coming off scummy but I'll do a short run-down of my impressions listed in a relative order from town to scum:

AlyG: If not for originality supporting AlyG's claim, I'd be screaming for his lynch. AlyG was amongst the top of the heap yesterday for scumminess and started out today on a bad note. His claim on originality reeked of scum, but when originality fessed up to killing Carrotcake I knew he had to be a Tracker. Still holding a spot in the back of my mind for a scum aligned tracker but since this is not likely I've got to believe AlyG as town.

vollkan: Sub'd in for a player that had no content yesterday so he gets a clean slate today. Most of his posts are logical and have the town in mind. However, I'm getting some very subtle scumtells from him, but I don't what to point them out right now because I'd rather him not be able to correct them. If I had to bet on a townie right now it'd be vollkan.

Lucienne: Came off fairly townish yesterday, but hasn't contributed much of anything earth-shattering. Also on the same track today and has become even less frequent in posting due to RL issues. Certainly comes off as someone that is flying off the radar. I get a mild town vibe but very hard to read.

Elias: Biggest lurker of the game adding no content to today's activities. He posted infrequently yesterday as well, but made one or two obviously town moves. I'd mark him as unreadable.

Gemelli: You replaced in for a crazy guy. His play was decidely confusing and possibly scummy but a few of us that have meta'd/played with Dr. BS kind of understood what he may have been up to. So far you're too new for me to get a read. But given that you were starting from a negative I'd lean you on the anti-town side.

dybeck: He rubbed me the wrong way yesterday with his agressiveness, but upon doing a re-read I didn't notice anything overtly scummy. So coming into today I had him in the overly agressive possibly pro-town column. He starts off today calling for my lynch based on one single tell. Then he completely ignores the scumminess of AlyG's tracker claim and calls for originality's head without orig even getting a post in. And subsequently argued "orig killed carrotcake, carrotcake was

VERY

protown, and orig was

totally scum

yesterday so he must be scum." In reality he didn't find orig scummy yesterday and I find it hard to believe carrotcake was the most pro-town player in the game (post on that later). While doing this, I feel he is completely ignoring the ramifications of an orig lynch (ie the NK of AlyG, sending us into LyLo if he is town). Just now after pages of being asked to provide reasoning behind his argument he is starting to look townish. I've got him as scummy and am almost comfortable with a dybeck lynch today.

originality: Played quite poorly yesterday. Gave off a few scumtells, but many of these could be seen as newbtells and was dogged by many people over posts he made in the random voting phase. Starts off today by being outed as a town killer by AlyG. But I believe the claim was probably the worst move for either scum or SK so I'm inclined to let him live. I also think that lynching orig sets up the scum to take out AlyG this evening as it's very likely if orig is SK he will be the target of the mafia (same goes for vig). I doubt he is mafia based on the fact that he a) didn't try to rebut AlyG and turn the claim around and b) didn't claim cop to out the town cop. And I don't think he's SK because he claimed vig which is basically a death sentence in the night. Basically I don't think the town can reliably pin down originality and being a confirmed killing role he is a definite threat to scum which I'd rather them have to deal with so AlyG gets another night of investigation without worry.

Oman: Started off the game with a very odd maneuver using tiny white text. This got him off on the wrong foot with me. Did some meta'ing and felt this was pretty normal for his playstyle. He set fine with me most of yesterday. While he did get a bit overzealous with ryan yesterday, I pretty much agreed with the reasoning behind the bandwagon that ryan should be pressured for trying to bully dybeck. Since ryan turned out to be an ass, we really got nothing from that bandwagon. Today Oman has been all over the place. Basically any time someone makes a point or places a vote Oman swings his position and says "yeah yeah that's the ticket

vote whoever was just mentioned

." This is reallyl making me uneasy with him and as of now I'd be most comfortable with an Oman lynch.

You will notice at this time I had originality ranked as second scummiest between Oman and yourself. I will say this order has changed slightly in that I find originality more scummy than before since he has omitted No Kill from his list of four targets for this evening (Again one of the reasons I decided to create this method was to set people up for mistakes like this). I've reread Oman and am still not sure about him. He posts in spurts and while he's posting he makes scummy mistakes. It seems he realizes this and then just lurks for a while till everyone's opinion of him cools off. And you have been doing an incredibly good job of looking scummy recently with your usual misrepresentation of reality and making up events that never happened. I'm going to have to reorder my scummy list as:

1. originality
2. dybeck
2. Oman

I'd say you an Oman are tied for a close second here.

[shaft.ed]

Also, I think this is to shaf.ted, but this could be wrong: whoever decided to do the "Top 4" list to kill, why did you choose four, and not, for example, three or five? This wasn't ever really addressed.

The odds of having one in three people on the list be scum is why I chose four (three because No Kill will likely be the number one choice). If we limit it to too few choices then we are very unlikely to have mafia on the list and thus the list is pointless. If we allow for too many people, than there's no point in making the list since it will undoubtedly contain the name of someone and antitown faction would be more than happy to kill. Three people on the list means ~76% chance at least one is scum given the odds of 3 in 8 being scum. This is high enough that we should get at least one scum on the list. The threat of their death is what we are after since it makes orig's killing power a threat to the scum. I personally don't agree with giving orig a NK option, but since the majority seem to want him to have the threat open and I do not want him killing at random given last night I thought this strategy would at least make his NK town guided.

And I agree that we should have two lists one mafia-lynch contingent and one town-lynch contigent, but that idea was shot down without much discussion.

[shaft.ed]

If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch.

I don't want to bury our heads in theory, but how does this work?

What I'm saying is if our situation started out with 3 maf 1 SK and rest town we would effectively be in LyLo today given the results of D1/N1. That is starting out:
8 town
3 maf
1 SK

-1 townie lynch, -2 townie NK's =
5 town
3 maf
1 SK

All it takes in this situation is for us to mislynch and the game is over if the NK's do not go our way that being:
-1 townie lynch, -2 townie NK's =
2 town
3 maf
1 SK

Or even worse:
-1 townie lynch, -1 townie NK(SK), -1 SK(mafia)
3 town
3 maf

This is a certain town loss barring any doctor heroics or SK heroics on subsequent nights. I pointed this out because dybeck was saying a 9 2 1 would be a broken game, I think any mini where the town can very well be LyLo after one mislynch is just as broken for the town.

That being said orig is an outed killing roll. No matter what side he is on, he should be killed tonight. If he is mafia the SK(or highly unlikely uncounterclaiming vig) has to kill orig to stay in the game. If orig is the SK the mafia can kill him tonight in order to be certain of either a win if orig kills town or LyLo if orig targets mafia/No Kills.

[Gemelli]

Stupid Mafia Tricks, Volume 1:

I had time between meetings today, and wrote a simple PHP script to analyze a mafia game thread. The script is designed to summarize all of the votes, unvotes, HoSes, and FoSes, based on those actions being bolded per the usual convention.

Because it's a simple screen scraper, it does occasionally pick up information in error, but it looks like it produces pretty solid results for a first draft of a script. I'll post the results if there's interest, and if Streeflo allows me to use small text, since the summary is quite long.

Some things that jumped out at me from this simple analysis:

* The two players targetted last night were among the least active from a gameplay perspective. Spurgistan voted for orig in the random vote phase, switched to Dr BS in post 153, and then back to originality in 256, but made no other votes/suspicions. Carrotcake voted twice (orig and AlyG). The only other player with fewer than 5 "game actions" that was NOT killed on N1 was Elias: he made one random vote on orig, and then a vote on Oman in post 49, but took no other action.

* Lucienne's last vote was in post 204, but has unvoted twice since then.

* AlyG hasn't voted since post 323, or used FoS or HoS since post 574.

* Dybeck hasn't moved his vote from originality since post 404 (shortly after AlyG's tracker claim), and has only FoS'd vollkan since then.

* Vollkan has been by far the most active player on D2: 9 votes, 13 suspicions.

Anyway, no strong conclusions coming from this. Just wanted to share on the off chance that this rings a bell for someone.

[dybeck]

I don't think we can necessarily count on the mafia/SK killing originality just because it suits the town.

[Streeflo]

mod, if more people agree, would it be possible to get a replacement for Elias in the works?

Thanks

I have been looking for a replacement for

Elias_the_Thief

since Wednesday, but because the game is already 35 pages long, it might be hard to find a willing player.

I'll post the results if there's interest, and if Streeflo allows me to use small text, since the summary is quite long.

If you could upload it on a separate webpage, that would be great. However, I won't mind the small text

unless

it

is

too

small.

Keep all posts at size 9 or above please.

[vollkan]

Originality, give me your word that you'll no-kill tonight, as almost everyone has said that they believe is the best idea, and I'll not mention your lynch again.

So, you don't actually care about Orig's alignment, you just don't want him to pose a threat to you?

You will notice at this time I had originality ranked as second scummiest between Oman and yourself. I will say this order has changed slightly in that I find originality more scummy than before since he has omitted No Kill from his list of four targets for this evening (Again one of the reasons I decided to create this method was to set people up for mistakes like this). I've reread Oman and am still not sure about him. He posts in spurts and while he's posting he makes scummy mistakes. It seems he realizes this and then just lurks for a while till everyone's opinion of him cools off. And you have been doing an incredibly good job of looking scummy recently with your usual misrepresentation of reality and making up events that never happened. I'm going to have to reorder my scummy list as:

1. originality
2. dybeck
2. Oman

This reminds me: Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig. I don't necessarily like keeping Orig alive today, but he has claimed and, if we lynched him and he came up vig, we would be truly kicking ourselves.

If Orig is mafia, then he is dead tonight anyway (by the SK) and thus will almost certainly carry out the mafia NK. Whilst a vig claim is unlikely, it might be used by a mafia to determine whether they have a vig or a SK against them.

If Orig is SK, then he has already lost and, thus, is a complete wildcard. This worries me, but I don't think Orig is a SK; a vig claim is just too suicidal.

If Orig is vig, then he will probably act properly tonight and follow consensus.

There is one possibility arising from this which interests me: If Orig is mafia and dybeck is SK. That would certainly explain dybeck's desperation to get rid of Orig. Assuming SK-Dybeck survives until tomorrow,
If we lynch a town today it becomes 4:3:1.
Mafia NK makes it 3:3:1
Dybeck's NK makes it 2:3:1 (basically mafia win) or 3:2:1 (messy)

If Dybeck is SK, then he knows for certain that Orig is mafia. Thus, dybeck simply HAS to get rid of Orig today in order to have a hope.

I had time between meetings today, and wrote a simple PHP script to analyze a mafia game thread. The script is designed to summarize all of the votes, unvotes, HoSes, and FoSes, based on those actions being bolded per the usual convention.

Wow. I'd love to get my hands on that somehow, though I understand if you want to keep it to yourself.

[originality]

And what use would they make of this information?

What advantage does it give us to have you killing unpredictably?

The information in itself is not the issue here, but whether I pose a threat to them or not. This way they don't know if they should not mind me or be careful that I might go after one of them, therefore reducing the effectiveness of any planning they might do.


Again, I'm not killing unpredictably, I will be following these lists we've been doing. I understand the consequences of doing otherwise, and really there is no reason for me to do anything besides what we've been discussing, so I'm down with it.

[originality]

Oh, and vollkan, I don't believe you considered the mafia-dybeck possibility in your post. If he is mafia, he will definitely try to lynch me or AlyG today. Pushing for AlyG would come off a tad too weird, as there is no good proof of him being scum, and a big chance of him being a town powerrole. I'm the only option left. And going for me is not too crazy, because my situation is rather dubious, and I am a more believable scum.

[vollkan]

Oh, and vollkan, I don't believe you considered the mafia-dybeck possibility in your post. If he is mafia, he will definitely try to lynch me or AlyG today. Pushing for AlyG would come off a tad too weird, as there is no good proof of him being scum, and a big chance of him being a town powerrole. I'm the only option left. And going for me is not too crazy, because my situation is rather dubious, and I am a more believable scum.

If he is mafia, he would be crazy to push for AlyG's lynch, yes.

I am not sure about what he would do regarding you, though. His behaviour is undoubtedly anti-town; ignoring everything and blindly pursuing the lynch of a claimed vig. Additionally, we have his misrepresentations and hints of buddyness with Gem.

On the other hand, however, I have this niggling concern that dybeck's actions seem almost too blatantly stubborn to be mafia and that his actions make more sense as a SK.

I'm going to throw my concern out here and see what people think: Dybeck is clearly anti-town, but I wonder if a mafioso would be this desperate. I mean, fine, a mafia dybeck would want you dead, but would a mafia really be willing to take the stance that dybeck is, which seems like it will result in his own lynching? Things would probably make more sense if dybeck is SK and Orig is mafia. This would fit with the fact that dybeck seems convinced Orig is mafia. Dybeck SK NEEDS us to lynch mafia today in order to have a hope of winning.

[Gemelli]

If you could upload it on a separate webpage, that would be great.

Easy enough: http://www.feesher.com/495_summary.htm (And I wish you the best of luck finding an Elias replacement )

You'll notice a few quirks in the script output right away. For example, the script doesn't know that Streeflo is the mod, and picks up on his "Vote count" posts as votes. It's also sensitive to messed up quote tags and long blocks of bolded text, which is why AlyG's posts 351 and 676 show garbled info. Still, not too hard to discard things like that as you review the results.

Wow. I'd love to get my hands on that somehow, though I understand if you want to keep it to yourself.

I'll very likely release it to the public at some point. It needs a lot of fine-tuning first.

Anyway, back to the game.

We haven't talked much about the possibility of there being two mafias (5:2:2), rather than the 5:3:1 SK scenario that we've discussed most. I'd very much like to hear from the rest of you as to whether you think that is a likely scenario or not, and why. I've been looking over the last few pages with this possibility in mind, and come up with some disturbing hypotheses that I think support that scenario. But before I spill on those, what do the rest of you think?

[Streeflo]

Elias_the_Thief

has requested replacement, with the apologies that he has joined too many games. I'll try and get a replacement as soon as possible.

[vollkan]

I'll very likely release it to the public at some point. It needs a lot of fine-tuning first.

Awesome. I can imagine it might actually have a positive influence in terms of people being willing to replace into games, in that they don't have to memorise so much instantly.

We haven't talked much about the possibility of there being two mafias (5:2:2), rather than the 5:3:1 SK scenario that we've discussed most. I'd very much like to hear from the rest of you as to whether you think that is a likely scenario or not, and why. I've been looking over the last few pages with this possibility in mind, and come up with some disturbing hypotheses that I think support that scenario. But before I spill on those, what do the rest of you think?

It is possible, though I would venture to say that it is quite unlikely. In any event, your hypotheses could be valuable as a means of determining possible scumlinks anyway; as a sort of springboard.

[dybeck]

Town - there is absolutely no advantage to us in letting originality decide tonight's nightkill over the town deciding as a group.

There is no reason to think he knows better than we do, and every reason to think that he doesn't.

I can't see why scum would kill him, when he's probably a good lynch prospect for tomorrow, especially since he'll probably be investigated tonight.

[Oman]

Sorry, unavaliable next 48hrs, Australian weekend.

[vollkan]

Town - there is absolutely no advantage to us in letting originality decide tonight's nightkill over the town deciding as a group.

There is no reason to think he knows better than we do, and every reason to think that he doesn't.

Dybeck - NOBODY is calling for Orig to decide over our consensus. NOBODY thinks he knows better than the rest of us.

Stop attacking strawmen.

I can't see why scum would kill him, when he's probably a good lynch prospect for tomorrow, especially since he'll probably be investigated tonight.

We can't rely on a cop investigation of him. I personally think that it is unlikely (though not impossible) that we have a cop given that we apparently have another investigative role ( AlyG).

Dybeck, you think Orig is mafia right? That means you must think there is a SK. The SK needs to get rid of Orig and his mafia buddies ASAP. Thus, Orig's NK is a near certainty. The SK cannot rely on Orig being lynched tomorrow, because if Orig sticks to consensus that is unlikely to happen. If we lynch Orig, in your scenario, that simply means that the SK is more likely to fire at random.

* The two players targetted last night were among the least active from a gameplay perspective. Spurgistan voted for orig in the random vote phase, switched to Dr BS in post 153, and then back to originality in 256, but made no other votes/suspicions. Carrotcake voted twice

(orig and AlyG).

The only other player with fewer than 5 "game actions" that was NOT killed on N1 was Elias: he made one random vote on orig, and then a vote on Oman in post 49, but took no other action.

That strikes me as very interesting (particularly the bolded bit).

Moreover, Spurg is an odd NK choice for mafia. Mafia tend to go for the most dangerous pro-town players, whereas Spurg really just looks like a non-contributing lurker.

This scenario is giving me concern, please discuss:
1) AlyG & Orig are mafia, most likely on their own.
2) They NK Carrot
3) On D2 they see that Spurg was killed also and that AlyG comes under tremendous threat of lynching.
4) AlyG panics and claims tracker with Orig to hopefully save themselves.
5) Orig reasons that it is unlikely a vig would have killed Spurg on N1 with no information
6) Orig claims vig
7) Dybeck (SK) realises that Orig is the mafia and that he needs to get rid of him to have a hope

The main problem here is stages 4 and 5; neither seems very sensible for mafia to do and is a near-suicidal gambit.

* Dybeck hasn't moved his vote from originality since post 404 (shortly after AlyG's tracker claim), and has only FoS'd vollkan since then.

Desperately seeking the lynch of Orig who he thinks is mafia....

[Gemelli]

I can't see why scum would kill him, when he's probably a good lynch prospect for tomorrow, especially since he'll probably be investigated tonight.

This comment makes no sense to me.

If originality is indeed a pro-town vig, we have created a strategy where there is a significant chance that he will target a mafioso. If you were mafia, would you be willing to take the risk of leaving a killing pro-town power role alive, just because you think the town might lynch him?

If originality is an SK, he is unpredictable. Although I find this scenario implausible, there is still a risk to the mafia. The only reason I could see for mafia leaving him alive tonight would be if 3/4 of the players on our suspect list are town, but as vollkan has pointed out, there is a high probability that an SK-orig would ignore our list entirely.

And of course, if originality is mafia, there is a SK or another mafia faction that has no reason to leave him alive tonight, as he is a direct threat to their win conditions.

Moreover, Spurg is an odd NK choice for mafia. Mafia tend to go for the most dangerous pro-town players, whereas Spurg really just looks like a non-contributing lurker.

In the threads I browsed on this site before joining, it seemed that the mafia's first N1 target had a roughly equal chance of being an outspoken/skilled player, OR a non-contributing lurker. The theory seems to be that since lurkers don't contribute as much content, they provide fewer opportunities to make statements that can be twisted to create fear and uncertainty. I don't know if I subscribe to that theory or not, but I thought it worth pointing out.

This scenario is giving me concern, please discuss:
1) AlyG & Orig are mafia, most likely on their own.
2) They NK Carrot
3) On D2 they see that Spurg was killed also and that AlyG comes under tremendous threat of lynching.
4) AlyG panics and claims tracker with Orig to hopefully save themselves.
5) Orig reasons that it is unlikely a vig would have killed Spurg on N1 with no information
6) Orig claims vig
7) Dybeck (SK) realises that Orig is the mafia and that he needs to get rid of him to have a hope

I have a hard time going for this exact scenario for a few reasons:

(1) A two-person mafia coupled with a single SK seems unbalanced in favor of the town.
(2) I don't think that the threat to AlyG was all that serious -- a FoS from shaft.ed and votes from oman and vollkan -- and in any event, why would he claim tracker vs. his scumbuddy? Wouldn't he be more likely to target someone else, ANYONE else really?

[The 5:2:2 scenario] is possible, though I would venture to say that it is quite unlikely.

(Added 5:2:2 to the quote to clarify) Why do you find it unlikely? I'm not saying that I think this is MORE likely than our 5:3:1 scenario, but it seems perfectly plausible to me.

Consider, for example, the scenario of two scumpairs: Dybeck-Elias, Oman-Orig.

The first is consistent with Dybeck's consistent attacks on originality, as well as his earlier comment about "the other scumgroup" and his question "does this bother anyone else?" It is also consistent with the frustration evident in his recent posts, as they could be indicative of his partner failing to participate in the process.

The second is consistent with Oman's and Originality's actions on Day 2. In this scenario, this pair is at a disadvantage: one of their members is outed, but they don't know for sure who the second pair is. But they have strong suspicions that Dybeck is a member of the other faction, and as such both are pushing for his lynch. This would help explain why originality is so resistant to recognizing Oman's behavior as scummy.

There are certainly other pairings that work with the posts made to date -- I will let someone else do the honors of analyzing the possible Dybeck-Gemelli pair -- but those two jumped out at me as not simply feasible, but quite likely, possibilities.

I don't want to take us too far down the rabbit hole of analysis-paralysis here, but I don't want our entire strategy to hang on an assumption of SK behavior, when I think we need to account for the possibility that no SK exists.

[Gemelli]

And I agree that we should have two lists one mafia-lynch contingent and one town-lynch contigent, but that idea was shot down without much discussion.

Sorry for missing this comment (and apparently the original spot where the idea was shot down) earlier. I think the idea is a sound one, although I'm not sure that the names on my list would necessarily change. What I WOULD change is the degree of emphasis I place on the "No Kill" option ... if we mislynch town tonight, the impact of a misvig would be disasterous. If anything, my "lynch town" contingency list would be:

1. No Kill
2. No Kill
3. No Kill
4. Oman (with Dybeck as a replacement if Oman is lynched)

[shaft.ed]

On the other hand, however, I have this niggling concern that dybeck's actions seem almost too blatantly stubborn to be mafia ..

I'm still not sure about dybeck. He's almost playing like a caricature of what you'd expect scum to be. Blantantly twisting words, fabricating events, constantly exagerating people's positions, and even contradicting his own previous viewpoints with no explanation for the change at all. I keep thinking that there's no way scum would play this blatantly bad, but why would a pro-town player do all of this?

On the other hand Oman is playing what you'd expect of scum. Making more sublte mistakes and being more opprotunistic with his voting. And once the heat got on him he disappeares from the game.

I think I'm down to these two for the lynch today but not sure.

In the threads I browsed on this site before joining, it seemed that the mafia's first N1 target had a roughly equal chance of being an outspoken/skilled player, OR a non-contributing lurker. The theory seems to be that since lurkers don't contribute as much content, they provide fewer opportunities to make statements that can be twisted to create fear and uncertainty. I don't know if I subscribe to that theory or not, but I thought it worth pointing out.

Another reason for this is that scum suspect that powerroles will be more reserved and less on the leading edge of attacks so that they don't get noticed by scum or mis-lynched for being on the wrong side of a lynching. So I've noticed a lot of quiet people get killed early on because they are suspected by the scum as power roles. Also did you remember your reread from yesterday? There was no uber scum threat and the majority of the people in the game came off scummy and as such would be good to set up for a lynch today.


And I agree with the viewpoints of the SK discussion. I think most version of Orig are highly likely to be NK'd, this is a portion of why I do not feel an orig lynch is pro-town at this point.

Not sure what to say about two scum groups. But in regards to the dybeck slip up about the "other group" remember this is a closed game and the "other group" isn't going to know that there are two groups. This doesn't really mean much in interpreting the number of groups. But the word "other" does read into his alignment. I don't recall any normal mini's with multiple groups in my readings.