Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

However, if we let him live, we should tell him EXACTLY what to do. That way, we limit the damage he can do if he is scum and, frankly, we limit the damage he could do if he were town. After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town, and still hasn't managed to come up with a single scummy thing his poor victim said, I think it's best that we don't even let a pro-town originality loose with his pro-town strangling-rope that he happened to bring onto this plane.

We need uncertainty and carrot was not clearly pro-town. This is not true. Yes, that would limit the damage he can do, but it also helps the scum in that they can then safely kill trackerAlyG.

I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing. I will support him being told he really shouldn't, but he must be given some leeway so that the prospect of him killing and not being lynched remains as a threat. I really don't want Orig to risk it, but I also don't want to lose the uncertainty.

Vollkan jumps on the global identifier thing way too hard. I'll say he's town, but jeez, its really unneccesary.

It actually was only meant as a minor observation, unfortunately dybeck's requests for clarification kind of snowballed it in size, though not importance.

[AlyG]

Just a small observation Vollkan: In your second quote wasn't it by Oman and not shaft.ed?

[vollkan]

Yes. Thanks for noticing.

[Gemelli]

I don't like the way Gemelli removes AlyG from orig's list in 757. We discussed the possibility the two were scum together, or whatever. I admit its not a huge probabbility, but the point is he completely discounts it.

This is ridiculous. Looking at the post itself, you should be able to see that I've quoted orig, and am replaying WHAT HE'S JUST SAID to be sure I understand him.

That being said, AlyG is not on my list for what I think are very good reasons which have been reiterated ad nauseum. I'll go over it again if anyone thinks it's necessary.

Gemelli skips over nokill in every convesation about orig's power.

Sigh. "No kill" is, as you will see if you peek back at post 687, my #1 choice for orig's night action. That has not changed one bit since the "top 4" lists started to make the rounds. What we have been trying to work out is whether there is a way that we can make the mafia unsure as to what originality will do tonight -- the theory being that if originality poses a threat to mafia members, the mafia will have to make a difficult decision on their NK target tonight. What I've been trying to work out in most of my posts lately is whether there's a way to keep the unpredictability in play while also limiting the town's risk exposure (and maximizing our ability to vet/refute originality's vig claim).

But I think you understand this, and are grasping at straws.

Gemelli conmpletely changes sides to be on the same stance as Shaft.ed

I have no idea what you are talking about here. I am sure you aren't talking about the recent focus on you, since IIRC I voted for you when you had zero votes at the time. I am all ears if you'd like to explain what you meant here?

The previous posts make more suspicious of Gemelli and Lucienne (she's in this game right?)

The two strongest posters game wide, and recently Gemelli (not convinced he's town).

The point is, these three posters seem pretty pro-town, and they're doing well.

These speak for themselves mostly, although I am puzzled by why you're grouping me with Lucienne in 793, since NONE of the posts you quoted had anything to do with her in the slightest.

[shaft.ed]

Oman I'm really not buying your latest overature.

Sorry to do it to you, the idea was that you'd catch scum without me.

The point is, these three posters seem pretty pro-town, and they're doing well. Therefor the town seemed strong enough for me to leave for a day or two.

Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:25 pm Post subject: 47

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Day 2, Votecount #19!

Oman (2) - Gemelli, shaft.ed
dybeck (1) - vollkan
originality (1) - dybeck
Lucienne (1) - originality

Not voting: Everyone else

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

Oman, you've been a suspect for some time now. Don't try to play cutsie, "woops I forgot you guys!" Really not impressed with your recent bout of erratic play. If you are in fact pro-town, saying you're not reading and throwing in scummy posts here and there is decidedly not helpful to the town's cause. And I hope the town is taking note of Oman being comfortable with the big three pro-town posters driving things. If he is in fact scum, one of the drivers is likely his mate. Yes I realize I fall into that group.

(Did enjoy the Discussion read though)

[shaft.ed]

After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town

If you're going to keep this spewing this rhetorical garbage, can you at least pretend like you have the facts to back it up.

[Oman]

although I am puzzled by why you're grouping me with Lucienne in 793, since NONE of the posts you quoted had anything to do with her in the slightest.

You're not connected, you are just two players who went down in town-ness. I'm not suggesting your connected in any way.

"woops I forgot you guys!"

I just want it know I didn't forget this game, I just had no time for it. I still love you shaft.ed.

[dybeck]

After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town

If you're going to keep this spewing this rhetorical garbage, can you at least pretend like you have the facts to back it up.

Carrotcake wasn't protown?

Or... has someone managed to find a single scummy thing carrotcake said yet? Something better than originality's "I feel it in my gut" story?

[Oman]

Carrotcake hardly acted protown, I don't think for a SECOND she was the likely choice for vig, be she certainly wasn't uber protown.

[dybeck]

I don't think for a SECOND she was the likely choice for vig

Well... if you believe orig's claim, this is exactly what you do have to think.

And carrotcake was about as protown as it gets. Your scumdar must just be off.

[Oman]

Regardless of what I think about orig, a vig can choose the wrong target. And do we need to dig up shaft.ed's look at how protown Carrotcake was?

[vollkan]

although I am puzzled by why you're grouping me with Lucienne in 793, since NONE of the posts you quoted had anything to do with her in the slightest.

You're not connected, you are just two players who went down in town-ness. I'm not suggesting your connected in any way.

Oman, you ignored the second point of Gem's: That nothing you quoted was about Lucienne. Indeed, you don't mention Lucienne at all other than saying she is becoming more suspicious.

Carrotcake wasn't protown?

Or... has someone managed to find a single scummy thing carrotcake said yet? Something better than originality's "I feel it in my gut" story?

This. Stop being obtuse.

The Life and Times of Carrotcake the Most Pro-Town Players Ever

Carrotcake's time with us was cut tragically short by the hands for originality. Now we are left to ponder whether originality commited this act as one of malice or one of caution. Let us examine here the incredible contributions carrotcake made to our town during her time here.

Carrotcake was not at all an active poster. She made a total of 9 posts on a day that contained 333 that's right she contributed to 2.7% of the dialogue. Now let's look at those posts chronologically:

First post:
Carrotcake wrote:Vote: originality


Random voting phase. Nothing of significance.

Second post:
Carrotcake wrote:


originality wrote:

its just the first day, its not like we need a very good reason to vote on anyone.

Voting - sure, but lynching without a good reason is asking for trouble

originality wrote:

iunless you expect to catch scum on the very first lynch, chances are we are going to get a townie. might as well make the best of it by lynching the ones that are not contributing.

Of course we expect to hang scum! There is a chance that we would lynch a power role too, as we don't know the set-up.
originality wrote:

or maybe you are just ignoring all logic to save your scumbuddies?

Lucienne, is in very little danger as of now. He has no posts, and its too early to call him a lurker. His fellow scum would not get rattled (if he is indeed scum). Spurg, and Aly are the ones taking the time to be logical here. You are being too pushy.

Aly might be too forward by voting for you, but you seem like a person with a lot to say. Adding pressure to you might be nice for the town.
Pointing out politely that originality is wrong in supporting the lynching of lurkers and that games here are slower so someone is not considered a lurker until they haven't posted for a number of days.

Third Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

Whatever [/ quote]

Whatever [/ quote]

Whatever [/ quote]
Remove all the spaces inside the braces, and just play around with it. Don't forget the quotation marks. I see people double post all the time, so it isn't a bad thing as far as I know.

Teaching AlyG how to use quote tags. Very pro-town activity here.

Fourth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

I have to go away for a few days. I might still be able to post, but I cant guarantee that I can scan through posts like normal.

Not going be here for a few days. Not much to add.

Fifth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

- I thought everyone vanilla claims by default at the start of the game, so Blackstrike's claim is meaningless. The scum might think that he is lying and aim for him anyways, or they might think that he is drawing attention for a NK and vote for someone else. Its a WIFOM, that does not help the scum at all. His next posts were a bit confusing though.



--- for the vamp and oman thing
Quote:

When I say defending himself with an attack I mean as his defense, he attacks.
Drawing attention from yourself is indeed scummy. But to me, it just seems like he is attacking. Being aggressive is actually a favorable trait for a townie, as it makes things happen. And allows the town to create an informed decision.

-Quote:

Did anyone actually see what the size one writing said? Anyway that seemed scummy for me
I might be misunderstanding you, but do you mean you have not even read the small white text?
Start's by saying she doesn't find Dr. BS claiming vanilla scummy.
Then she defends Oman from VampanezeHunter's ludicrous argument and points out VH was a moron.

Sixth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:Vote: AlyG
for spreading confusion and hate

I have to intense studying to in to, this is my last long post for a while (even if the quality is quite low). I can still post small snippets though!

On AlyG --- after a short read of posts

- Very aggressive against originality, he attacks "lets lynch the lurkers" over a series of posts. AlyG then attacks originality after listening to general reasoning, and changing his mind. Not really scummy, but it seems to be bloodthirsty. This worries me as it seems like bullying an easy target. Getting an easy lynch.


- "And originality, if you don't come up with a good defence i'll be voting for you which means you'll already at 4 votes. Not good. " - AlyG
"you shouldn't be so eager to put votes on people. He was already on 3 votes and getting to 4 on the 2nd page is going a bit to far. " -AlyG to Oman
You yourself threatened to cast the fourth vote, but you attack Oman for doing it instead of you. You seem to care too much about the placement of your own votes, as if you are avoiding something.
- Voted for vamp, on the grounds of lurking.
- "Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation." Even while you still have a vote on him. Afraid to look wishy washy if you keep voting unvoting? Or would you like to use this as water to wash your hands clean if he did come up as town?
- " And Dr. Blackstrike who's role claiming is really destroying our chances of winning. " Is really destroying seems to be an exaggeration. Invoking hate against Blackstrike.


- You do not switch your votes around. You already know about being wishy washy, so you might be working to avoid vote switching. You do however call out plenty of suspects while seemingly relying on what other people to dig deeper. Planning to cause confusion? You do explain your reasons, but it hardly feels like your own.

- Hey wait a moment, I think im seeing the same post twice Shocked , oh well I have written quite a bit already so I might as well just post it


This is really her only contribution to the game. Points out that AlyG is acting scummy in many ways some new some repeats of other's points but amassed in one compendium. Then says she won't be posting much.

Seventh Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

I don't like the idea of lynching a claimed( semi-claimed?)power role today. Very little harm could come from letting him live another night. If he does turn out to be town, we get one night of benefits. There isn't exactly a shortage of suspects anyways. Lets just hang him tomorrow.

Defends Dr. BS stating that lynching claimed powerroles is bad. Then ends by saying let's just kill him tommorow a bit scummy there.

Eight Post:
Carrotcake wrote:


Quote:

Well Carrotcake said the exact same thing a page ago! Yet you don't seem to be attacking her. Either you overlooked it or you two could be a possible scum partnership.


That still does not answer why you did it. Are you saying that you simply echo my posts?

I love the way you try to shift blame around. I am scummy for something that YOU did ? And the person who attacked you for it is scummy too. Madness!

Quote:

Lets just hang him tomorrow.

I said that to somewhat satisfy the bloodlust against the doctor. I did not place a death date, as I am aware that through a night action he might have a chance to prove himself. The tone of that when I imagined it is probably much different than what you are thinking about right now. My apologies for not making it clear.
Ends up defending the fact that she said Let's just hang him tommorow. Gee imagine that.

Ninth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

When was the last time we had a prod?
Could we please have prods if it has been a while. It seems vamp isn't posting on another game too, so he might have just walked out and quit. It would be great if we could get a replacement fast.
I don't believe in Lynch all Liars, as a guiltless lynch cant be good for the town. Originality might have just made a misinterpretation.

Asks for a prod after having only contributed 8 posts to the game. Doesn't realize vamp has already been replaced. Then says we shouldn't lynch liars.

This ends the words of carrotcake. While I don't find Carrotcake very scummy, how can anyone argue that she was decidedly pro-town? I seriously have more trouble wrapping my head around a vig wanting to kill at all than a vig wanting to kill Carrotcake.
[/quote

[Oman]

Indeed, you don't mention Lucienne at all other than saying she is becoming more suspicious.

I thought I posted something like "isn't she in this game" the idea is that the chronic lurking makes me uneasy.

[vollkan]

Not in #793.

[Oman]

The previous posts make more suspicious of Gemelli and Lucienne (she's in this game right?)

The idea is that her chronic lurking makes me uneasy.

[vollkan]

The

previous posts

make more suspicious of Gemelli and Lucienne (she's in this game right?)

The idea is that her chronic lurking makes me uneasy.

*confused* Is this about posts or lurking? You said "the previous posts", implying that something that they had said was causative of a greater level of suspicion and yet now you are attributing it to her chronic lurking.

[Oman]

*sigh* are you really going to be that pedantic on whether I say posts or lack thereof.

The original line was just Gemelli, but I added Lucienne in when I caught a look at her name, i just didn't fix the sentence.

[Lucienne]

The Life and Times of Carrotcake the Most Pro-Town Players Ever

Erm, I'd say more lurker than "Most Pro-Town Player Ever!" Exaggeration?

What I've been trying to suggest is that to me, CC makes NO sense as a kill target for a pro-town player.

QFT. Correct.

I'm confused as to how the discussion about orig's potential scum role being focused on him being an SK.

Why?

Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%

Why dybeck 65% and Oman 60%?

Page 27 and more a bit later (hopefully today).

[Oman]

Okay, this so proves you're not paying attention to the game.

Erm, I'd say more lurker than "Most Pro-Town Player Ever!" Exaggeration?

Yeah, it was an ironic comment, made like, 2nd page of D2.

[vollkan]

Why dybeck 65% and Oman 60%?

If you read the next line I would not be writing this now:

Scummy
Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%

I think that our situation is 6:3 and that the mafia are probably Gemelli, Oman and Dybeck. Meta, Oman is quite easy to be swayed by strong opinions. For that reason, I would personally favour a lynch of Dybeck.

At that point, I could not easily weigh them up in terms of scumminess: Both were suspicious for the same reasons they are now (though both have increased in my eyes) Oman's behaviour was, to an extent, consistent with how he normally plays and, given the confusion, I was prepared to grant some leeway (my own vote jumped around a bit too). In contrast, I saw dybeck stubbornly pushing what I saw as anti-town.

This is all purely historical stuff though: Oman has truly worn out my leniency and dybeck has done nothing to redeem himself.

Something else,
Lucienne's most recent post earns a

FoS

from me. After being missing for so long, she now pops up with this miniscule post. Her comments to shaft.ed and myself show that she clearly put no effort into this whatsoever. It looks like she has just skimmed through and selected a few lines which convey strange opinions when taken out of context.

@ Lucienne: I, personally, want to see some of your own opinion rather than just questioning out-of-context sentences from other people's posts (or QFTs).

[Lucienne]

If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch.

I don't want to bury our heads in theory, but how does this work?

I don't like Oman's posts when pressured by Vollkan on Page 27. It sounds really like he is trying to save his butt from a nightkill.

Only if it was on a scummy target, or else one chosen by a secondary vote (I understand an SK would be fine with it, but it at least gives the town majority some control).

What do you mean by "secondary vote", and who do you classify as scummy targets?

If I was scum (and I know how WIFOM this would get) I probably wouldn't worry so much about orig because his track record isn't great, and he could almost be a lynch target tomorrow conditional on a bad NK.

You're right, it is complete WIFOM here.

It makes sense that you would say this, since it's the absolute opposite of what you were doing. You quite clearly were/are panicking about being nightkilled.

Gemelli, why in post 664 did you class Elias as more suspicious than others (e.g. dybeck)?

I'm lost since after that you went back and said you were doubtful of originality's vig claim and he was more suspicious than Elias.

As Vollkan later pointed out, the position of dybeck right in the centre is very telling.

I'm completely lost dybeck - in one post you say the only things that should happen are that orig gets lynched, or no one gets lynched. I can see no feasible reason for either alternative at this stage, and welcome a big long reason for both.

What I propose is that each of us makes a list of their top four candidates for NK in order including No Kill if that is what you prefer. Limit orig to picking from the three most popular options.

I like this plan. Here is mine:

1. No Kill
2. Oman (blatant flip-flopping and bandwagonning)
3. Dybeck (exaggerated attacks of originality)
4. Elias (lurking too much - although I wouldn't want him to be killed at all.)

Interesting to note that after being pressured about his neutral dybeck position, Gemelli moves him up by 5%. Although marginal, it is significant - it now puts him head on with originality. So this change is substantial after pressure.

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

I hate this list. What have shaft.ed and Vollkan done to put themselves anywhere near higher than Oman?

Oman's list is almost as bad. Why is AlyG, who claimed tracker, even on your list?

Listing a confirmed tracker for NK is just ludicrous.

QFT.

Its not back pedalling its simple fact.

Wrong.

Updated player thoughts: (I shall be doing this in more detail at the end).

Oman (far too much flip-flopping and bandwagonning which has accentuated his early scummy Day 1 behaviour).

Dybeck (his stance regarding originality was far too exaggerated and advocating to lynch him is scummy.)

Gemelli (solid enough, only notable thing is connections with dybeck. If dybeck turned up scum, I would be looking at Gemelli.)

Elias (really, really needs to post.)

Vollkan (I don't see much to fault at this point, although I find that his use of maths is off-putting for me at least. Sometimes scum hide from discussion by talking theory, but I'm happy to see that Vollkan is doing both.)

Originality (Although less sure than about his claim than AlyG's, I am still completely against lynching him.)

AlyG (I believe his claim.)

Shaft.ed (similarly, I don't have any major doubts about him at this point.)

Also: I do still have limited access - my family emergency hasn't really died down and could all blow up again at any point. I will warn if I am having no access, but I am at this point on limited access.

[Gemelli]

And just as importantly, Lucienne, I'd like to see your top-4 list for originality's action tonight. I think that once we have the lists from you and Elias, we'll have a much more solid basis for making a decision on what to do tonight (both as a lynch target and as an orig-direction).

[vollkan]

If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch.

I don't want to bury our heads in theory, but how does this work?

I think he means 5 town where Orig is SK (as in, shaft.ed is looking at the wcs). Thus, 5:3:1.
Mislynch = 4:3:1.
At night, in wcs = 2:3:1.
No Lynch.
At night, in wcs = 0:3:1.

Even if this doesn't happen precisely the situation is bleak regardless.
I think it is most likely Orig will be NKed and vigOrig will not kill.
As such, with a mislynch I think the most likely D3 is:
4:3 LYLO

Also, Lucienne, thanks for bringing up the

Oman 50%

thing. I knew I had forgotten a linking thing between them. (hence why I just bolded it).

[Gemelli]

Oops! Pardon my cross-post

Gemelli, why in post 664 did you class Elias as more suspicious than others (e.g. dybeck)?

At the time, I saw dybeck's suspicions more or less aligned with mine. I was giving him the benefit of the doubt (perhaps too much) that his posts reflected a strong opinion, as well as frustration that others did not share that opinion. Since then, his stock has fallen a bit in my book. Elias, on the other hand, is generally a very active player on this site, and yet has participated at the bare minimum in this game. That makes me suspect that he might be adopting a low-profile here on purpose. It's a stretch, true, but there hasn't been much else to go on as far as scumtells are concerned.

I'm lost since after that you went back and said you were doubtful of originality's vig claim and he was more suspicious than Elias.

The context for post 664 was discussing my preferences on originality's night action. I found it unlikely that he would be willing to target himself

Gemelli (solid enough, only notable thing is connections with dybeck. If dybeck turned up scum, I would be looking at Gemelli.)

Completely understandable; I realize that my earlier support for him has formed a tenuous link between us. However, it's worth pointing out that dybeck has been silent as far as my posts are concerned. So: on the off-chance that I am removed from the game before he is, please don't take my confirmed alignment as any indication of his. I am pro-town; he may still be scum.

[Gemelli]

Also, Lucienne, thanks for bringing up the

Oman 50%

thing. I knew I had forgotten a linking thing between them. (hence why I just bolded it).

I assume that this is a typo, and that you are referring to my earlier listing of dybeck as 50% scum/town?