20 more pages read. Lots of stuff happened, some of which puts quite a spin on things. Please don't fake claim ever again as town, Guardian.
Shteven
- he continues to be very scummy, but there is a caveat. First and foremost, I didn't appreciate his flip-floppy stance towards Guardian at all. I was particularly flabbergasted that "a 40% likelihood that Guardian's claim is the truth" was enough for him to unvote, even though it equates to a 60% likelihood that he's lying scum, which is a lot higher than what Shteven was willing to lynch ABR for (30% IIRC, I'm too tired to read back). I also think there's what could very well be a scum-slip in his posts at that time:
Shteven in 1519 wrote:MoS's "save" of guardian has already been mentioned. This one falls to whether or not you think MoS would be that straightforward; if not, it's sadly WIFOM. I put some stock into this.
Securing a mislynch for any day is worth the risk, in my mind.[/b] Perhaps not as much day 1, though, as lynches are likely to fail already; but all it takes is ~2 non-mafia lynches early on and the game is solidly in the mafia's camp. Night kills can still interfere, if you get lucky as we have.
I find it
quite
significant that Shteven is readily assuming YB to be innocent in order to spin MoS's behavior in a way that would indicate a link to Guardian. You sure you don't have any inside knowledge?
Some of his play just continues not to make any sense to me at all. When asked to list his top 3 suspects aside from Glork by AE, he listed Guardian, Inhim and Sarcastro, and yet followed that up by some weird half-defense of both Inhim and Sarc for some incomprehensible reason, which basically must have meant that he didn't really suspect anyone aside from Glork and Guardian, which is certainly unorthodox considering there were 60+ pages of posts. It's also pretty significant that Sarc made it into this list, which could indicate distancing.
And then of course, there was the Sarcastro vote. Was it busing? What I find noteworthy is that the vote itself is very unlike Shteven in this game. Up until this point, I felt like he was very focused on a limited number of players (which didn't include Sarc) and mostly shuffled his vote around between them. He also cast the vote for a rather weak reason (that Sarc was gonna miss the deadline). Furthermore, it's also noteworthy that Sarc was voting Shteven as well. All things considered, I don't find it unlikely that this was a distancing attempt. If there was scum on the wagon, Shteven is the most likely candidate.
MBL
- SK fetish continues, though not as badly as before. There's some more "friendly advice" to the scum, which really rings alarm bells when MBL does it. There's further evidence that MBL is not mafia, but I'm really starting to wonder what he's trying to accomplish with his play here. I hope he explains somewhere in the last 26 pages I have yet to read, and if not, I suggest he remedies that fact swiftly.
The Central Scrutinizer
- Spent most of his time arguing against Glork, which included an emotional outburst that didn't feel right to me. Posts like
this sound to me like he really wanted to get him lynched, but lacked the arguments to do so. There was also
this reaction to Guardian's claim, which was by far the most "forced pro-town". Finally, he was one of two people who openly stated a preference not to lynch Sarc, but he's the less serious offender of the two. Nevertheless, I'm taking him back into consideration.
BattleMage/Kinetic
- There's not much on BattleMage. I didn't like the manner with which he went after Guardian at all, but he redeemed himself considerably with his last action of relevance. I really wouldn't except BM scum to ease off of Guardian after hounding him so feverishly and definitively. Kinetic is too fresh to get a read on, so I'll once again forgo any conclusions, though I'm leaning towards town at this point.
Glork
- He did some things that didn't strike the right cord with me during this period, mainly the apparent SK directing he got most of the flak for, but I felt he was legit in his defense (and for the record, I think he
does
get emotional and over-defensive when attacked as town). His analyses and general suspicions still jive well with me. Probably town.
BillyTwilight
- Pretty much dropped off the face of the earth during this period. I feel like his opinion of most of what happened here is missing, which really makes him hard to place. He still wants YB lynched, though apparently not as much as he used to, and the only thing else to take away from this period is a vote on Shteven, which is admittedly not too bad. It's too bad he wasn't around for the lynch, but it's not necessarily a point against him. He's in the middle-ish.
Jack
- There's two people who actively opposed the Sarc lynch, and Jack is one of them. From the moment Sarc became a legitimate lynch contender, Jack switched his vote to YB, Inhim and YB again in short succession, always stating that he doesn't want Sarc to be lynched. While Jack always had his own head and opinions, he never seemed to be terribly interested in seeing them through, and now he suddenly puts up a real fight to get his way. And he
really
didn't want Sarc lynched. Curious. A candidate.
YogurtBandit
- There was an astounding drop in activity once people lost interest in him. Looking at his posts in isolation really puts this into perspective, as you have to scroll aaaaaaall the way down to find his post page 60 contributions. The only thing of note he did was a vote on Sarc, which is a point in his favor. Everything else is basically cheerleading in the Glork/Shteven debate. Not sure he's town anymore.
Yosarian2
- Now that Albert is gone, at least he's shown willingness to discuss a somewhat broader spectrum of topics. I still think he's way off radar though. I'm quite peeved that he wasn't around for the lynch, but he didn't express any interest in Sarc when his wagon started to take off, which I'll have to take as a point against him considering his absence at the end of the day. Still a candidate, but slightly less so.
I was meaning to take a closer look at the Guardian wagon at the beginning of D2, but forgot. I'll do it once I finished my analysis (which will happen within 24 hours).
