Blitz 25: Super Mario uPick! (Koopa Troop victory!)

[Ranger]

Yo.

My lunch break is like five minutes from being over, so unfortunately I won't be able to read the thread

right now

, but in about five hours, I should be finished with work and available. Looking at the deadline clock, that'll still leave six hours. I would much prefer you let me catch up and post before blindly lynching, since a day where Ranger doesn't get a chance to post is often a day when the mafia mislynch a town player.

[Ranger]

Oh. Looks like it'll actually be 18 hours five hours from now, given the 12-hour extension.

Yeah,

definitely

don't lynch anyone before then. That's plenty of time to let me catch up

and

get a lynch in.

[Ranger]

{Firebringer}
{Aristophanes, Fire Starter}
{Xtoxm, Frozen Angel}
{Heat}
{lilith}
{BlueTrin}
First page.

[Ranger]

{Firebringer}
{Aristophanes, Fire Starter, Flubbernugget, Frozen Angel}
{Xtoxm}
{Heat}
{BlueTrin, lilith}
{Amihan}
Second page.

[Ranger]

{Firebringer, Aristophanes}
{Fire Starter, Flubbernugget, Frozen Angel}
{Xtoxm}
{Heat}
{BlueTrin, lilith}
{Amihan}
Page six.
Honestly the first two tiers are pretty interchangeable. They're basically "super town" and "really, really town".

Pretty sure the scum can be found in {Xtoxm, Heat, BlueTrin, lilith, Amihan}. It's just a matter of which names to eliminate.
Xtoxm's nulltown. Heat nullscum.

[Ranger]

{Firebringer, Aristophanes, Firestarter}
{Flubbernugget, Frozen Angel}
{Xtoxm}
{BlueTrin}
{Amihan}
{Heat}
{lilith}
Through nine. Almost there.

[Ranger]

That replace out needs to be burned with fire:

Yo.
I know it's my slot but even if it wasn't.
If you can't read the tone of that and tell it was a town replace-out, you can't read the tone of replace-outs at all. Jackal clearly couldn't keep playing, but

wanted

to. It was a reluctant replace-out, not one made out of fear.

Jackal's content, contrary to the Aristophanes case, was also fine. I'd be lying if I said it was obviously town, but if he wasn't me, I'd still have him on the town side of null.

[Ranger]

(also hi ranger! I'm quite excited to play with you!)

Got any particular reason you're excited to play with me? As far as I know, we've never crossed paths before.

Ranger, what's the reason for Ami's placement?

I simply thought Amihan's content was scum.
I'm not as sure now, both because of an improvement from Amihan and because literally every other scumread of mine (you included) pushed the wagon.

[Ranger]

Why am I so high up on the town read list...Also Firestarter? He is null for me.

Dude, you're quite literally the towniest player in the game. This is classic town Firebringer. Fire Starter's had insanely-town content every time they've posted.

I find it odd that for all the opinions Ranger has given, she hasn't touched or mentioned the vote she inherited from Jackal.

Well I was disinclined to remove a vote from someone I was already scumreading.
I'm less sure now, so you're right there.

Unvote: Amihan

.

No re-vote yet since honestly not sure where to vote. All the wagons floating around just seem...so...scum-driven.

[Ranger]

We were really thinking Lilith might have been scum for claiming late in the day like that.

Yeah, no kidding. I was convinced going into N1 that lilith was scum with [REDACTED - probably the second mason], pulling the same gambit from Blitz 1: she claimed with

out

her mason buddy also claiming, with no actual indication that she was a mason.

I guess I can submit that as evidence for why I'm not scum? Because I (1) know her partner, and (2) wouldn't have nightkilled her when I'm scumreading her.

Also thought Ranger was scum since we couldn't get that lynch at the end of the day.

I couldn't get pignash lynched in Youtube Mafia D2, either, and I thought the same thing, but no. pignash was town there, I am town here.

I don't know about a Neighbourhood and a Mason group both being town.
In fact, I'd say the chances of the neighbourizer being scum are quite likely.

When it's a targeted action, the only thing to question is the alignment of the targeter: Firebringer is still town, FA still town, so the only question is whether Xtoxm is town or not.

[Ranger]

Mod: V/LA for 24 hours.

Something came up--personal.

[Ranger]

Pretty sure I have seen a scum neighborizer, but its like 10:1 ratio on that I feel.
I have seen like a dozen and vast majority were town.

I'm pretty sure it's 50/50 between them being town/scum. It's a really common scum role. So, my statement stands: judge by play, since judging by role won't give us Xtoxm's alignment.

My role's actually the same way: I'm pretty sure it's a role equally used by town and scum. It'd actually be the

perfect

role for me, if I had slightly stronger reads.
I'm thinking I need a re-think of the game. Aristophanes is actually pinging me a lot, with the desire to lynch Xtoxm, yet also being incredibly open to lynching me, the player Xtoxm is pushing.

[Ranger]

I want an insta-lynch on Ranger becuase that last minute survival was so damn scummy

No, what was "so damn scummy" was a literally-last-second counter-wagon forming on me. That it didn't go through is fortunate chance.

Tell me I'm wrong, dare you to. Because the votes and their timing prove it: that was a flash-lynch attempt on me which failed. I think scum wanted me dead,

badly

.

[Ranger]

Show me 5 games of scum having the role. It is definitely not that common on this site.

Well, this one for a start. TWO mafia neighborizers, as part of the JOATs. This game has another. Here's a third. This is a blitz game with one. And here's a fifth.

There's probably more, but you only asked for five. Thus, read on play, not role.

[Ranger]

Now seeking a replacement for Xtoxm.

VOTE: Xtoxm.

[Ranger]

Nothing in Fragger's posting has done anything to change my opinion of the slot.

[Ranger]

FB is definitely scum partners with frag.

Eh, not impossible, do doubt it though.

[Ranger]

Well I'd hammer, but I'm already voting.

[Ranger]

So...this is probably mylo.
I'd consider a no-lynch, but bluntly, I have good reason not to trust Firebringer in lylo. In mylo, much harder for him to quick-vote town and hand the scum the win. :P

[Ranger]

So...from my understanding...double-guilty on Aristophanes, yes?

I'm

pretty

sure that makes him the right lynch.

[Ranger]

Ranger what do you think about the nature of guilties and the way ari claimed his flavor?

Confusing.

[Ranger]

The problem with a no-lynch here and trusting Aristophanes to make a kill is how many things can go wrong:

1. If he is town, he could have his kill stopped in any number of ways. A lack of second kill would make him be lynched.
2. Worse, if he is town and he
   kills
   town, then it's game over: him killing town, plus scum killing town, equals scum outnumbering the town. We trade town majority vote on who to kill for a single player's instincts on who to kill.
3. If he is scum, he
   may
   not be able to prove the kill, but he could use the chance to put himself in a better position, especially with scumbuddies' help. He could either claim the above ("my kill failed!"), or he could claim his kill succeeded, and the
   scum's
   nightkill failed.
4. Worst of all is the possibility that he is scum,
   and
   he can make an extra kill.

All of these make a no-lynch sub-optimal.

[Ranger]

Well...I'm not hopeful for much now. :/

[Ranger]

Yeah, this sounds like something we need everyone to check in for.

[Ranger]

Still waiting for all the claims here.

[Ranger]

So...still thinking Aristophanes is scum.

[Ranger]

Why the fuck?

Because that's what the evidence says?

[Ranger]

Heat's pretty obviously scum for what it's worth: his claim keeps changing every time a contradiction in it is pointed out.

[Ranger]

Also, I'm Rawk Hawk. I have a 1-shot gladiate which is activated during the day.

Obviously, this being mylo, I can't exactly use it. I mean, I COULD, but if my target's town, we...kinda lose. It also resets the votecount, so, uh, yeah, best not to use.

[Ranger]

You think I'm scum? then vote me.

I don't think that'd be productive at this point. It feels like you're trying to save Aristophanes.

I'm not voting because unlike

someone

, I am very hesitant about voting in mylo/lylo.

...Speaking of which: it's actually weirding me out that Firebringer

isn't

vote-happy today. I'd expect him to be voting, not advocating for a no-lynch.

[Ranger]

You think I am lynch happy?

Given past experience?

Yes.

[Ranger]

I mean.

As it stands.

The situation looks like this: Amihan has a guilty on Aristophanes. This means that between {Amihan, Aristophanes}, there is at least one scum. Fire Starter claims a second guilty on Aristophanes. This means that between {Aristophanes, Fire Starter}, there is at least one scum. Simple arithmetic suggests that two guilties on a player mean that the player in question is actually scum, especially given how hard it has been to lynch Aristophanes.

Heat claims that part of Fire Starter's claim cannot be true, but not immediately: with a delay. This still suggests there's at least one scum between {Firestarter, Heat}. Then the flaws in Heat's claim are pointed out. Heat modifies his claim. The flaws are pointed out in his claim again. Heat modifies his claim. Then, when it's pointed out the impossibility of Fire Starter's role is not actually impossible...once more, Heat modifies his claim, to say "actually, yes it is impossible, I swear this is true even though I made no mention of this before".

So the situation is pretty clearly: Aristophanes with a sketchy claim against

two

guilties...with Heat displaying revisionism in his claimed role...against two players whose claims have been consistent and natural. Furthermore, Aristophanes has failed to prove his role. Heat has failed to prove his role. Fire Starter

has

proven his role. He knew Frozen Angel, yes? He knows BlueTrin, yes? So unless the scumteam is {Frozen Angel, BlueTrin, Fire Starter}, his role must be real...yet if that were the scumteam, then there's still Amihan's guilty left unaccounted for. So if the scumteam is instead {Fire Starter, BlueTrin, Amihan}...how did Fire Starter know Frozen Angel's role?

So again: Fire Starter's role is proven. Aristophanes has not proved his. Heat has not proved his. So this looks, very very strongly, to be an Aristophanes-Heat scumteam.

[Ranger]

And frankly, Firebringer, I'm going to be blunt: Fire Starter's role apparently clears Frozen Angel, but even if it didn't, she'd be town anyway.
Fire Starter's role apparently clears BlueTrin. This I'll admit takes Fire Starter's word.
Then there's Amihan and Fire Starter themselves.
I know I'm town.

With a 3-man scumteam...that's 5/8 players.
Leaving you as POE scum anyway.

Yet even beyond that. Your new attitude? Don't buy it. Because this is what I said to you back after your second one.

Two games in 24 hours, even.
Be less vote-happy in lylo, Firebringer.
Pretty, pretty please.

Your response, and I QUOTE,

No, thats who I am.

...Yet this game, when it comes to Aristophanes, you're suddenly vote-shy?

So...yeah. Feeling confident enough to risk it:
VOTE: Aristophanes.

The scumteam's Aristophanes, Heat, and Firebringer.

[Ranger]

What gives you that impression, Firebringer?

[Ranger]

Whats withh you?
Yesterday you were all saying

"I don't buy this firebrigner at all, and I bet he is scum"

Now, nothing.

No, I'm scumhunting you.
I'm not asking for answers, I'm demanding them.

Because you still look like scum.
But this is probably lylo.
So if I'm wrong I need to know it now.

What gives you the impression Heat is scum now, Firebringer?

[Ranger]

I'm considering everyone right now.

[Ranger]

VOTE: Heat

[Ranger]

Oh, you can release the PT. Nothing personal in there as far as I know.

[Ranger]

And Firebringer?

That makes

four

times you've voted town as town in lylo immediately, allowing a scum quickhammer.

[Ranger]

Also, Fire Starter: told you so.
Woulda won a day earlier had you listened to me. :P
(I predicted Aristophanes was a supersaint, and cautioned against a scum hammer.)

[Ranger]

Like Ranger dramatically gladiates someone and scum win, that's fine. Or by good play.

The gladiate was my ace in the hole. Since it resets the votecount, I could bide my time until close to lylo, gladiate, and then force a no-lynch through during lylo. I was only going to use it as a last resort, though.

[Ranger]

Despite all the bad town plays late on, town would have already won if Lilith had claimed earlier then she did and we'd have had our D1 scum lynch.

That was actually bad luck and timing on BOTH sides.

See, I had my 1x gladiate that I was planning to use in order to save my life. The idea was, as close to deadline as possible, use it, reset the VC, force a no-lynch. I'd have died D2 for sure, but it'd have guaranteed I lived, when I was under serious threat of being lynched.

...But my schedule conflicted with the deadline, meaning I was not around within the deadline window. What happened was, I had votes on me when I was online, but I was not in danger of being lynched. I left, and then the votes piled on me. This was the bad luck and timing on my part: I never would have seen it coming.

The bad luck and timing on the town's part was my lynch not actually going through, NOT ONLY saving my life,

but also

allowing me to hold onto my trump card, the gladiate.

[Ranger]

I did have a lot of fun this game.

Probably one of my better scum games in general. I apologize for voting the town players I did. (In particular, Aristophanes.) I only did so because I wasn't town. :(

[Ranger]

Definitely!

[Ranger]

I actually want to give a go at it, too. I think teaching would be fun.