Open 28 - Quack Mafia. OVER! But who won? before 466

[Tarhalindur]

I'm here.

I'm currently leaning towards the scum being ckd, ssf, and a player who protected Mert (ssf) N1, mainly due to Occam's Razor. Unfortunately, I'm short on time (I have 2 tests in the next 2 days), so I don't have time to elaborate at the moment.

[Stewie]

When you can, do elaborate. From the day 1 and 2 claims I can't conclude anything, they all lead to "X targetted Y, therefore X is scum, Y is scum, they are both scum, or X is a doc" or some similar statement which leads us nowhere.

[mneme]

Stewie: there's a bit more to it than that (what we have are a set of X equasions that can be solved together) but at best, they give us a set of unknowns that are very difficult to fill in; I find it unlikely that we can solve the entire set sufficiently to be able to prove innocent (or guilty) very many people. But we may be able to get odds if we crunch the numbers enough.

Worth it? Not sure.

[JordanA24]

I'm here,

Is it just me, or did mneme's post seem a bit general? He mentioned we reached endgame-land, and yet I can't see him doing any analysis on who might be scum (unless you count him posting who was on the d3sistedtown-wagon.)

[mneme]

Jordan: It's a lot of work to figure out who is/might be scum based on claims, and I'm not sure I can get the math right. So while I'm interested in the work being done, I'm unconfident enough in my ability to get it right not to try it right now.

Now, in terms of analyzing day posts, that's easier (if less sure), but IMO it's a lot less fruitlful than trying to solve the night calculus.

[Aimee]

dasquian replaces Honary Hitchhiker effective immediately. Yay!

One more gap where there are no posts for 24 hours and there will be a deadline (non-retractable).

[JDodge]

BTW, the only option for today is obvious.

Vote: No Lynch

DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, PROTECT ANYONE UNLESS YOU ARE A CONFIRMED NON-QUACK

[Dasquian]

Just replaced in, getting up to speed, give me chance to read the thread, etc. No idea who I'm voting for (if anyone), but

unvote

.

[curiouskarmadog]

BTW, the only option for today is obvious.

Vote: No Lynch

DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, PROTECT ANYONE UNLESS YOU ARE A CONFIRMED NON-QUACK

that is insane..

the only way we can kill scum is to lynch..if no one protects we give mafia another kill and we will be back in the same place..

nobody in this game is a confirmed anything.

vote jdodge

[curiouskarmadog]

Just replaced in, getting up to speed, give me chance to read the thread, etc. No idea who I'm voting for (if anyone), but

unvote

.

good luck keeping the replacements straight

[JDodge]

BTW, the only option for today is obvious.

Vote: No Lynch

DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, PROTECT ANYONE UNLESS YOU ARE A CONFIRMED NON-QUACK

that is insane..

the only way we can kill scum is to lynch..if no one protects we give mafia another kill and we will be back in the same place..

nobody in this game is a confirmed anything.

vote jdodge

Then tell me, o master of the game, why people should protect when doing so could kill enough people for us to lose?

[Tarhalindur]

Still short on time (stupid German class...), so here's a Cliffs Notes of my reasoning.

- Note that if SSF is scum, then from my perspective CKD *must* be scum (since then he was targeted by a Quack and nobody else N1, yet he survived, and the only way that thiscan happen is if CKD is scum as well).

- I believe that Jordan is probably town for the time being, due to a combination of play, his decision to claim targeting Vel-Rahn Koon (WIFOM, admittedly, but that claim feels town to me), and my inability to draw any good conclusions if Jordan is lying scum.

- CKD and SSF are likely scum, IMO - ckd's N1 (in)action is a scumtell to me, and having both CKD and SSF as scum is the simplest way to explain ckd's survival N1.

- I suspect that the third scum is likely lying about targeting N1, and probably claimed to target Mert (SSF) on N1 (for good or ill, this is based on a gut feeling).

I'll admit that the argument isn't as strong as I would like, but it makes more sense that any alternative that I can think of.

Still, the best decision here is probably to no-lynch and have no Doctors use their ability, as the extra death narrows down the possibilities (or else leads to a "and they all lived happily ever after" scenario, which I consider an acceptable outcome).

[curiouskarmadog]

BTW, the only option for today is obvious.

Vote: No Lynch

DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, PROTECT ANYONE UNLESS YOU ARE A CONFIRMED NON-QUACK

that is insane..

the only way we can kill scum is to lynch..if no one protects we give mafia another kill and we will be back in the same place..

nobody in this game is a confirmed anything.

vote jdodge

Then tell me, o master of the game, why people should protect when doing so could kill enough people for us to lose?

talking about the no lynch, capt oblivious

[curiouskarmadog]

someone please explain to me how no lynching helps the town eliminate scum?

[Aimee]

Vote Count!

JDodge (1) -- curiouskarmadog
No Lynch (1) -- JDodge

Not Voting (6)

Stewie and somestrangeflea prodded.

Deadline: Monday October 8.

Deadline is retractable if dicsussion picks up.

[somestrangeflea]

Vote: JDodge

No lynch is a terrible plan...

[Tarhalindur]

Thanks for all-but-claiming scum with ckd, ssf (especially since I was already leaning towards you two as scum).

I see two good options today: No Lynch, or lynch one of ckd/ssf, who are almost certainly scum. I favor the second option, and specifically the two-scum-for-the-price-of-one deal, myself.

Vote: SSF

.

[curiouskarmadog]

still waiting for someone to answer my question of 588..

[Tarhalindur]

still waiting for someone to answer my question of 588..

Still, the best decision here is probably to no-lynch and have no Doctors use their ability, as the extra death narrows down the possibilities (or else leads to a "and they all lived happily ever after" scenario, which I consider an acceptable outcome).

Reading is tech.

That said, I doubt that the "no-lynch is best" conclusion is still valid due to the high likelihood that you are scum and that ssf is your buddy.

[JordanA24]

I agree that no lynch at this stage is a horrible idea. If we do it, we have to hope that we lynch scum

3 times in a row

. I'm much happier taking the risk of lynching someone today. I don't think it's vote-worthy though, I think suggesting it was silly rather than scummy. I think CKD jumped on it rather hastily for my liking.

FOS: CKD

[somestrangeflea]

someone please explain to me how no lynching helps the town eliminate scum?

It doesn't.

[curiouskarmadog]

still waiting for someone to answer my question of 588..

Still, the best decision here is probably to no-lynch and have no Doctors use their ability, as the extra death narrows down the possibilities (or else leads to a "and they all lived happily ever after" scenario, which I consider an acceptable outcome).

Reading is tech.

That said, I doubt that the "no-lynch is best" conclusion is still valid due to the high likelihood that you are scum and that ssf is your buddy.

your right, reading is tech, the question is not answered

someone please explain to me how no lynching helps the town eliminate scum?

no lynch helps the mafia kill town, which I only shrinks the possibilities, but it doesnt help us eliminate scum.

so answer the question, knowing that lynching is the only way the town can hit scum...how does not lynching help the town?

[somestrangeflea]

Note that if SSF is scum, then from my perspective CKD *must* be scum (since then he was targeted by a Quack and nobody else N1, yet he survived, and the only way that thiscan happen is if CKD is scum as well).

Wonderful. You think CKD is scum. You think that, if I'm scum, CKD is definately scum. And you somehow believe that I'm scum. Explain please...

[JDodge]

Anyone else disagree with the no-lynch enough to vote for me? This is important, relevant info.

[curiouskarmadog]

I agree that no lynch at this stage is a horrible idea. If we do it, we have to hope that we lynch scum

3 times in a row

. I'm much happier taking the risk of lynching someone today. I don't think it's vote-worthy though, I think suggesting it was silly rather than scummy. I think CKD jumped on it rather hastily for my liking.

FOS: CKD

(rolls eyes)..He pushed for an Indy(now tar) lynch the entire day 1 without really providing a good case and stayed off the radar most of Day 1..now he is suggesting an anti-town tactic, but I am the one that gets a FoS?

I am also suspect of SSF (as I suspected, mert as well)

FoS SSF

....Mert was very adament that Dral and piggy were town, when they were acting VERY VERY SCUMMY, but never gave a reason or provided a quote why dral/piggy were so protown...then SSF comes on the scene and hammers...granted I dont think that was as scummy (for I really thought d3sisted was scum as well) but compared to Mert's play it was odd...now, SSF immeidately follows my vote (which makes me uneasy)

Unvote

,

Fos jdodge, Tar

for pushing a very anti-town idea.