Blitz 24: Great Idea Mafia

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah compared to How to Be Normal SRMP looks more town here

I probably want to lynch Xtoxm over Pers today unless Xtoxm starts getting a lot more involved. It's impossible for me to read either him or Ranger with how little I've seen from either of them. I haven't liked a lot of what Pers has posted but a coasting lurker is more dangerous to town here, I think.

[GuiltyLion]

Can you seriously not figure out why from the post itself and the context? I'm willing to explain it if I really need to, but sometimes I get the feeling you're asking questions with obvious answers just to appear busy.

and yes, I do want you to explain this.

I don't like how you're spinning me trying to get a better read on you as something scummy.

[RadiantCowbells]

I want Ranger to actually get involved.

[Lucky2u]

xtoxm has been prodded.

[Xtoxm]

So the claim is likely legit, but i'm still having a difficult time believing what RC is doing here is coming from a town place. And an even harder time picturing a scum team without RC that considered a frame job on RC by killing Lane as a good strategy. Lane had claimed his role, which in itself was useless, and was enabling another claimed relatively useless role. If the kill was made to protect RC, however, he can make the "but why would I kill my own enabler" argument.

609 is pretty flawed.

What if Xtox is scum and killed Lane thinking that either it would prevent me from delivering fruit or that I would fruit vendor him, and wanted to score the easy lynch on me?

1) Prevent you from delivering fruit - This idea quite literally relies on the premise that I am stupid.
2) Why would you fruit vendor someone you were supposedly scumreading? Why would you think I would think that?
3) Score the easy lynch - Killing a town player who is deathtunneling you is not a way to "score an easy lynch". Quite the opposite. Making a kill to frame is a terrible scum strategy that I do not engage in. NKA is largely ignored by towns and is difficult to convince people of, whilst an enthusiastic participant for the wagon has been removed.

Looking at possible partners for RC, Lion looks like a promising possibility, while others do not.

Ranger - Unlikely, a gambit in which RC is not a real FV involves a high number of autoloss scenarios, and I do not think RC-scum would send fruit to his partner as a real FV.

Persival - I would be pretty shocked if what these two are doing is a vigorous cross bussing strategy.

SRMP - The situation in which he voted RC yesterday had a strong possibility of leading to his death.

Lilith - This one I am less confident on, and the way she defended RC at deadline yesterday was pretty unreasonable in all honesty. But I don't think she would have defended him to the extent she did if they were scum together.

Looking at interactions between Lion and RC however, is more in line with what I expect from scumbuddies. RC briefly poked at Lion but moved on, and Lion actively did a lot to prevent RC's lynch yesterday, without ever taking a strong stance.

Lion:

Yeah compared to How to Be Normal SRMP looks more town here

I probably want to lynch Xtoxm over Pers today unless Xtoxm starts getting a lot more involved. It's impossible for me to read either him or Ranger with how little I've seen from either of them. I haven't liked a lot of what Pers has posted but a coasting lurker is more dangerous to town here, I think.

How is it impossible to read me? I feel i've done a fair amount to show my alignment, particularly at deadline yesterday.

I didn't bring this up yesterday as I was generally townreading you, but

that's fine, doesn't change my read that you're probably town

I think I'll sheep itlepip onto Ranger here and see where that leads
VOTE: Ranger

What had Itle done that was sheepworthy? I'd found Itle's post up to that point very underwhelming.
Where did you think it was going to lead? The way I think about it, someone who has full claimed miller is the least useful place to wagon at the start of D1.

Also - What is your current read on RC, and what would you say the chances are of you voting him today?

[GuiltyLion]

How is it impossible to read me? I feel i've done a fair amount to show my alignment, particularly at deadline yesterday.

with my post I really just wanted to bait you into engaging more and it seemed to have worked, as this kind of long drawn out thought process is more what I'm used to seeing from you.

I don't think a lot of yesterday is particularly indicative, especially without a scumflip. Deadline is a lot harder to use to read people in my mind, because there's not time to sit around and reflect a lot on what people are saying. Sometimes scum will slip up but I didn't exactly see that from anyone, and then the way itlepip messed up his readslist gave a very easy excuse for everyone to pile on him yesterday, both town and scum.

What had Itle done that was sheepworthy? I'd found Itle's post up to that point very underwhelming.
Where did you think it was going to lead? The way I think about it, someone who has full claimed miller is the least useful place to wagon at the start of D1.

Itle hadn't done anything sheepworthy. I really had no strong scumreads one way or the other and I wanted to see how people reacted to my vote. I guess in terms of where it could lead, I wanted to see who questioned me about my vote, how itle reacted to his wagon growing, if Ranger would respond, etc.

I wanted to try to build a wagon

somewhere

and so I tried to make something happen with a null read voting another null read. But I planned to jump off if something more indicative came up, and then I thought Ranger made some townish looking posts that prompted me to hop to Persivul.

Also - What is your current read on RC, and what would you say the chances are of you voting him today?

egh, I tend to always townread RC because he's great at sounding town by tone. But he has absolutely tricked me as scum before.

Given that he has provided fruit, I'm less inclined to feel like voting him today, because I think it is entirely possible that he's arrogant enough to want to clear himself immediately as a town fruit vendor, which would explain a lot of his D1 play. I'm trying to wrap my head around the math of knowing he's a fruit vendor and whether that information makes him more likely to be scum (town vs mafia fruit vendor being 50-50) or significantly less likely to be scum (ruled out as being every other possible scum role).

I'm feeling kind of lost at the moment as I don't have any particularly strong scumreads, and when I'm usually in this situation I tend to default to a lazy scumread which inevitably winds up being inaccurate. I think it would help me to see you and RC talk directly to eachother, instead of about eachother, but obviously I can't force that to happen.

[GuiltyLion]

I do agree with your points about 609 though - RC isn't dumb, and I suspect he knows you aren't dumb either

[GuiltyLion]

Let me sleep on RC, Xtoxm - rereading his D2 posts, I'm starting to get a nagging sense that you may be right here.

I don't like RC's 595 "not sure why you wagoned itle" - seems like a useless thing to say and only angling for towncred.

[Ranger]

Reasons for the vote?

Lilith was scum yesterday, and is still scum today.

Were you not there when I hard defended RC?
Do you think I would do that as scum?

Bluntly? Yes. The way you defended RC was

incredibly

insincere.

[Ranger]

I want Ranger to actually get involved.

I

am

involved...my normal activity. Which is...posting once or twice a day. This has, is, and shall continue to always be, the case with me 100% of the time. My posting rate is easily predicted. I come on at largely the same times every day, and consistently am around. I post until I get caught up, might give some follow-through, then I move on, and eventually log off, unless I forgot to do something. (If so, I log back on, take care of it, and then log back out.) If you think me posting less, it is a subjective perception based on thread activity being fast.

And right now, you're getting me posting. I don't really have much to say, I'll admit, but that's because most of what's been said in all these pages has done absolutely nothing to alter my reads. It's fluff, useless content that might help

you

but which did nothing for me.

[Ranger]

Looking at possible partners for RC, Lion looks like a promising possibility, while others do not.

OR, in a shocking twist of fate...RC is not scum.

{RadiantCowbells}
{Xtoxm, Some Random Mafia Player, GuiltyLion}
{Persivul}
{lilith2013}

[Ranger]

For the record: Persivul's not actually a scumread, though he's my best guess for a second scum, it's just that RC's my strongest townread, and {Xtoxm, Some Random Mafia Player, GuiltyLion} are all hanging at around the same level of being weaker townreads.

Lilith is just scum, though.

[Xtoxm]

Initial reaction to 630 is very positive, and not really what I was expecting after accusing you of being scum with RC. I need to rethink.

Ranger - Your succinct approach to your reads is frustrating. Can you go into more detail? RC in particular we are reading very differently and you've given nothing there other to state he is strong town.

[Persivul]

Can you seriously not figure out why from the post itself and the context? I'm willing to explain it if I really need to, but sometimes I get the feeling you're asking questions with obvious answers just to appear busy.

and yes, I do want you to explain this.

Trying to find a viable wagon within my lynch pool as deadline approached. It's obvious, I said as much, and it's what everyone does close to deadline.

So, why would people ask me such an obvious question?

I don't like how you're spinning me trying to get a better read on you as something scummy.

No clue what you're referring to.

[lilith2013]

Reasons for the vote?

Lilith was scum yesterday, and is still scum today.

Were you not there when I hard defended RC?
Do you think I would do that as scum?

Bluntly? Yes. The way you defended RC was

incredibly

insincere.

I just.. I have absolutely no idea where you are coming up with this. Like..

what

?

[Persivul]

VOTE: lilith

Sheeping Ranger, who looks town now. And just because this game is boring.

[lilith2013]

What happened to you thinking my reaction was genuine?

[Persivul]

What happened to you thinking my reaction was genuine?

It still seems genuine, but I'm easily fooled. Ranger's reads are generally better than mine, and her last posts feel similar to recent town games.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Persivul

Alright, this is scum.

[RadiantCowbells]

Would still happily lynch Xtoxm. This is multiball; why would I kill my own enabler when another scum faction could have easily killed Ranger and gotten me instalynched?
I didn't like the Itle wagon today or yesterday, GL. I was pretty clear about that towards the end of the day.
I have difficulty believing in Town!GL's indecision here.

I really don't think that Lilith is scum here. When she rolls scum on chatmafia she mostly tries to avoid engaging me and tries to get me mislynched.
She spent most of this game trying to get me to talk to her and share reads and I don't believe that she would have WKed me in that manner as scum, particularly when if she's scum she would have known that I would likely end up catching her this game. She's never really triggered my scumdar either.

Can we please just lynch Persivul though? Instant 180 on the Lilith slot, scummy as fuck, all the d1 shit, etc.

[Persivul]

This is multiball;

And you know that how?

There was only one kill last night.

[RadiantCowbells]

Great Idea mafia is a multiball setup.
Maybe there's only one faction but on D1 I would absolutely assume that it's multiball.

[Persivul]

The only way you can know it's multiball is because your kill didn't go through.

VOTE: Radiant

P-edit: It's not D1, it's D2, and you know that it's multiball

[RadiantCowbells]

How does that even make sense?

Great Idea Mafia is a multiball setup.
End of story, goodbye.
Even with a single kill N1 I'm still assuming multiball considering I could see many groups of people having reasons to kill him.

Persivul's just voting everyone who gets under any pressure atm. Lynch it.

[Persivul]

Great Idea Mafia is a multiball setup.

The setup only requires that there's at least one anti-town role. This is only a micro, and there was only 1 kill last night. This strongly suggests a single scum faction. Yet, you know that it's multiball.