Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!


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Post Post #2525 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 9:48 am

Post by Glork »

Shteven, you're putting words in my mouth.

All I said is that inHim/TCS cannot both be
MAFIA
. I
NEVER
said
ANYTHING
clearing them from being an SK. Yes, it is bloody obvious that I think MBL is most likely to be the SK, but I made no attempt to clear either inHim or TCS from possibly being SK, and I most certainly did not leave anything out. I'd like to know what you hoped to accomplish with the little pot-shot at me just now. The only things I ever get out of ad-hom attacks in late-stages of the game is a poor attempt to obfuscate facts and statements. If you had another, valid reason for doing so, I'd absolutely love to hear it.
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Post Post #2526 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 10:45 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

White wrote:MBL, i'm on page 94 (almost done!) and you are waaaaaaay more defensive than you should be for having (I think) 2 votes on you.
I came back from two weeks in the desert to find that Glork was pushing my lynch. My response was genuine. The guy wanted me vigged on N1 for god's sake, he's not on his game and I'm not going to have his stubborn ass lynch me as a townie for the second time only. And I think I had three votes on me--TCS, Jack, Glork sound about right? With Yos and TCS telling me I'm way scummy? Damned right I'm not going to take that lying down, especially considering this irresponsible lot lynched a townie in six days yesterday.
White wrote:Not to mention citing metagaming as a primarty defence for why Glork is wrong is just insipid and invalid.
If you're going to open this can of worms, you'd better take the time to investigate the metagame for yourself. Even Glork, in the glory of all his incorrectness, now thinks I'm scum who INTENTIONALLY voted Albert to fuck with his metagame, because me being on Albert doesn't fit his oh-so-genius pattern. (Feel free to read D1 and see whether my vote on Albert is supported by my observations of Albert vs. Shteven/Guardian/YB.)
White wrote:As for why you might've killed MoS as SK, it's pretty obvious you value your opinions and thoughts higher than God's so naturally when other's didn't echo your sentiments you would take things into your own hands. Hopefully (for you) something will come up in the next 7 pages that will dissuade me or i'm voting for you.
Hopefully is an odd choice of words, as you noted when you decided to qualify it.

And your final argument here says that as SK, I'd have killed MoS because I was the only person to find him suspect? Fascinating. Welcome to the pure WIFOM train--conductor Glork, engineer Kinetic, Yos considering becoming a paying passenger. You're basically agreeing with them that I've intentionally taken actions to make myself look suspicious all game in hopes that WIFOM would save me from being the obvious kill TIME AND TIME AGAIN.

The truth again, for the record, is that as a nondocnoncop, I had nothing to lose by being NKed and the town had much to gain. If/when I turn up town you'll have my suspicions as gospel, to roll with your silly insult, and thus far my suspicions have been more on the ball than most everyone in this game.

Do you think I'm likely to be part of the 2-man mafia at this point, White?
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Post Post #2527 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 10:57 am

Post by White »

Hmm, I'm not too sure I buy into the big bussing deal that Glork is using. I think i'm going to have to say i'm not really in favor of you being mafia. However I feel your overdefensiveness indicates that you just can't be a townie. A protown, town win oriented, townie should have no problem giving up their life if they know it'll lead the town to a win. With you fighting so vehemently against dying and against Glork i'm inclined to believe you're got more of a vested interest in surviving rather than wining (possibly due to the interconnectedness of the two).

Either way, if we do lynch you and you don't end up being scum, we'll "have [your]suspicions as gospel" which is quite a bit better than they look right now. I have to say I think you've done a terrible job of defending yourself if for nothing less than the blatant insults. The goal is (supposedly, not to mention being manifested here and now) win other people to your side and get them to unvote you because they either see you as town or see someone else as scummier. I think you've effectively done neither.

Also, Jack was voting Kinetic.

Honestly, the mere fact that you bring up who absurd it would be for you to lean and set up a pure WIFOM argument for end game is really a point against you. Knowing about it means you could've set it up and waiting to turn incredulous at the mention.
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Post Post #2528 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 11:16 am

Post by White »

Ok, finally done with my read through and I think the lynch for today would definitely be MBL. I guess I wouldn't mind a Shteven lynch either though but I think i'd rather wait on TCS or Yos2 or Rogue for now. I'm pretty sure the others are clean.

Vote: MyBuddyLee
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Post Post #2529 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 11:19 am

Post by Glork »

White wrote:Either way, if we do lynch you and you don't end up being scum, we'll "have [your]suspicions as gospel"
Could you explain what you mean by this?
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Post Post #2530 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 11:27 am

Post by White »

Sure. If MBL turns up town (looking at all possible outcomes) then we'll have his word (as he said) as "gospel". Meaning that we can trust his opinions because at that point (if he's innocent) he'd be confirmed innocent.
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Post Post #2531 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 11:30 am

Post by Glork »

So you're willing to follow MBL's suspicions if he's town on the basis that.....?
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Post Post #2532 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:04 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

White wrote:
A protown, town win oriented, townie should have no problem giving up their life if they know it'll lead the town to a win.
If you lynch me (I am town, and though you dont know that I will state it for the sake of this exercise) you'll be one of the following tomorrow:

* 2 scum 1 SK 4 town (if no crosskills)
* 2 scum 5 town (if scum hits SK)
* 1 scum 1 SK 5 town (if SK hits scum)
* 1 scum 5 town

That is why I'm fighting my lynch. In that first scenario, you guys killing me will have come close to leading town to a loss. In the second, we're in C9 with no power roles, which is proven to be heavily slanted towards scum. (info we have aside) So yes, it's not in the best interests of town for me to fall on my sword at this point. What I'm doing is trying to get some more of you on the record--through your words we will determine today and tomorrow whether your motives were pure. And as for you taking issue with my insulting Glork, he started it :D
White wrote:Knowing about it means you could've set it up and waiting to turn incredulous at the mention.
Sure, and yes it's your job to evaluate the likelihood of that. You're forgetting to discuss the risk I'd have had to take by making myself a scum and lynch target each of the first few days.
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Post Post #2533 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:08 pm

Post by Glork »

MBL wrote:And as for you taking issue with my insulting Glork, he started it
Oh? I just remember calling you scum over and over again. We can do an ad-hom tally if you'd like; I'm pretty sure you'd be leading that category by a pretty wide margin, start to finish.
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Post Post #2534 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:22 pm

Post by Shteven »

Glork, just on the chance this is a miscommunication, is the sk scum? Ie, when I refer to scum, I mean anyone who is anti-town. so saying that only one of TCS etc can be scum, that's wrong. If you mean strictly mafia, then that's different.
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Post Post #2535 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:38 pm

Post by The Central Scrutinizer »

White wrote:Sure. If MBL turns up town (looking at all possible outcomes) then we'll have his word (as he said) as "gospel". Meaning that we can trust his opinions because at that point (if he's innocent) he'd be confirmed innocent.
Whether MBL is town or scum, he could be wrong. We should give the opinions of a dead townie almost zero credence. It's the opinions of dead scum we should analyze, because
they
were part of the informed minority.
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Post Post #2536 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:41 pm

Post by The Central Scrutinizer »

Shteven wrote:P.S. It's these little omissions by Glork, which have happened very frequently in this game, which made me list him as scum at the start of day 3. Maybe it would have hurt us in the long run, but I wish Manaspryte hadn't protected him ;)
If we lynch Shteven, and he comes up scum, how totally blown is MBL's "Glork is off his game" argument (I use the term loosely)?
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Post Post #2537 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 2:25 pm

Post by Shteven »

Let me put this to you instead: If I am lynched and everyone sees I am town, would you clear MBL/lynch Glork?
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Post Post #2538 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 2:34 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Glork, post 1 wrote:Bad boy. Bad, bad, bad boy.
I was butt-hurt. Seriously.
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Post Post #2539 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 3:31 pm

Post by Glork »

Shteven wrote:Glork, just on the chance this is a miscommunication, is the sk scum? Ie, when I refer to scum, I mean anyone who is anti-town. so saying that only one of TCS etc can be scum, that's wrong. If you mean strictly mafia, then that's different.
Uh, I said that both are "possible scum" (which, yes, does include the SK), but that a maximum of one could be Mafia.

I fail to see how you don't understand this.
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Post Post #2540 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 5:49 pm

Post by The Central Scrutinizer »

Shteven wrote:Let me put this to you instead: If I am lynched and everyone sees I am town, would you clear MBL/lynch Glork?
No.
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Post Post #2541 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 5:53 pm

Post by Shteven »

I saw the word scum twice and must have glazed over the mention of mafia.

So my mistake on that one. I still don't like the post very much, but that's down to stylistic differences now. I prefer posting the most general information, where you've already narrowed people down based on your own suspicions. Ie, Yos is no longer one of the three who can be at most one mafia, he's now clear, making TCS/MBL stand out much more.
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Post Post #2542 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 5:54 pm

Post by Shteven »

The Central Scrutinizer wrote:All right, what part of "let's lynch the players that are
not investigated innocents first
don't you understand.

I'm so ready to vote MBL. He's not this stupid.
Back on september 13th, right about when people stopped throwing out votes. Do you ever intend to follow up on this, or any other vote, TCS?
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Post Post #2543 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 6:08 pm

Post by The Central Scrutinizer »

I was on the MBL wagon, wasn't I?

I have in fact voted for everyone that I've said I will in this game. And in most, FWIW.
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Post Post #2544 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:00 pm

Post by Shteven »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but september 13th was still day 4, ie, now. And since then, you've been voting for no one. I haven't checked but I'd believe you have voted MBL at some point, my question was about right now. Why won't the non-voting, non-replaced players keep the game moving?
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Post Post #2545 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:21 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Apologies for what's about to happen here: I've gathered everyone's remarks re: an SK in hopes that the real SK will look phony when talking about other SK candidates.

Jack:

Jack wrote:Um, I've never heard of an SK who was night kill immune but wasn't told so by the mod ROLE PM'S IN FIRST POST sheesh

Isn't the SK basically a vig at this point? Wouldn't lynching mafia and having the SK kill mafia or the mafia kill the SK be ideal?

Surely scum want to lynch the sk? Why distrust them for pushing kinetic?

ok. I'm not a fan of the "sv is odd kill choice" type tells (could easily be applied to yos today etc but I'm sure I've seen townies do that kind of thing in the past). I also thought his talk about the sk/congratulating was too wifom to be meaningful. In conjunction with the MoS kill though, it's more suspicious, looks like mbl thought that he'd given a clue to his being the sk with that mini-fos post and wanted to counteract that. Nightkills make sense, meta is interesting vote:MrBuddyLee

But the thing that's important from here is your mentioning that the SK must keep a low profile. This is what I think you were trying to do. You mentioned suspicion on MoS: you thought he was scum. You nightkilled him; he was scum. Now you worry that the mafia will have noticed you and think you are sk. So you do the sk distancing. You claim it's sloppy, but I don't think it is sloppy. You use the wifom argument before, why ignore it now?

I think the gf would worry about the kill and kill mbl, and it's possible that mbl would kill the gf. This situation is advantageous to us.

mbl, all the arguments I've made have pointed to you as sk. It's obvious I think your sk and not mafia. It's also obvious that you'd rather defend yourself from claims that your teamscum then that your sk.
White wrote:As for why you might've killed MoS as SK, it's pretty obvious you value your opinions and thoughts higher than God's so naturally when other's didn't echo your sentiments you would take things into your own hands.

the lynch for today would definitely be MBL.
note: Jack found me townish until Glork started in on the warpath today, then was "convinced" and made a curious 180. He's also very focused on analyzing the numbers and who will likely kill who, probably a nulltell but something the SK is surely doing behind the scenes.


BattleMage/Kinetic:


BM wrote:This suggests that the SK may be a less experienced player.

lol why the hell would SK-BM be telling the town who to kill AFTER HE IS DEAD.

What makes you assume that MoS was an SK kill?

If there's one thing that seems genuine about Guardian, it is his bewilderedness with regard to other players roles. That indicates to me that he is an SK. Of course, this suspicion combined with his CONGRATULATION of the SK, and his evident interest in the role of MoS, gives me a very strong vibe that he is the SK

Either way you are the lynch for today. I'd be leaning towards SK myself, but if the worst case scenario is you coming up Mafia, i'm still ok with killing you

i don't think you should be directing the SK towards the Doc.
Kinetic wrote:If we believe Guardian's claim (and even if we don't believe it, but think he's SK. A point that is given major credence since he basically hammered Sarcastro)

Glork: Could be teamscum or SK.

I don't exactly know how well I believe Guardian right now, but I felt strongly he might be the SK well before his secondary claim

That's why I voted you, and that's why it stays there. I wasn't sure about if you were the SK before, and honestly I was willing to let that doubt keep me from voting you

the fact the SK keeps killing people who defended you is a reoccurring theme that I wasn't going to bring up originally. But since you so nicely brought it to the attention of everyone else... That was the first thing that had me suspecting you of being the SK. I think you killed MOS with the intention of pointing to him day 2 saying: MoS is town and he defended me. When he came up scum, I think it blew up in your face.

I'll say I'm only 65-75% sure you might be SK

If you ARE mafia, then we know a lot more than if you're SK, so I'd almost rather you come up that. If you come up SK, its not as good as if you were mafia, but its not bad by far.
Note: uncertainty about Guardian-SK seems genuine
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Post Post #2546 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:28 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Yos:

Yos wrote:unless the town gets really lucky and the mafia kills the SK, the mafia will kill one pro-town person every day. Period.

Um...I think lynching a SK on day 1 is a great thing; greatly decreases the number of anti-town nightkills with means the town has more lynches over the course of the game and the pro-town roles get more chances to act, and it of course also increases the town's odds of winning by eliminating the chances of a SK win. I don't think I've ever seen someone say "we shouldn't lynch X day 1 because he might be a SK" before...

if a good SK thinks he has an idea who the scum is, he'll try to lynch them during the day (when it'll make him look better) while trying to get rid of pro-town threats to him at night. In any case, even if one were to accept the idea that SK's are as much a threat to the mafia as they are to the town, it would still be a good idea to get rid of a SK ASAP, just because SK's do sometimes win games, even large ones. Besides, the whole idea that you don't want to lynch him because he might be a SK just seems bizzare to me. It's like saying "Oh, better not lynch him, he might be a surivor". Anyone who's win condition isn't pro-town is a GREAT day 1 lynch. Could you explain why you think he's a likely SK?

The way you said it, it really does sound like it could be a subtle attempt to direct the SK to kill guardian so your scumgroup can go kill someone else.

your suggestion that the SK would generally claim Doc is just wierd. A mafia scum claiming doc would be reasonable; a SK claiming doc, though, would pretty much guarentee that he would be nightkilled by the mafia or counterclaimed by the real doc(s) eventually and lose. A claimed doc should never expect to live until endgame, and the SK needs to live until endgame, so claiming doc would be about the worst thing a SK could do.

I know, I know, I just said like 5 minutes ago (before I saw the re-claim by Guardian) that the SK shouldn't claim doc, but it still seems a heck of a lot better and more probable then a townie claiming doc to avoid being lynched.

The point I made a little while ago was that the SK claiming doc would be a bad more for an SK to make, but as far as bad moves go, it's not even in the same UNIVERSE as townie claiming doc would be, heh.

MBL: In general, I don't get a scum vibe from him. AE's theory about him being a possible SK did make sense, but I don't think it's all that strong, and I'm not really seeing MBL as being all that likely to be a mafia member right now.

Pure WIFOM, especally since you're the one making that defense. (IE: if you really think "If I was the SK would I talk about the SK" is a solid defense, then why not talk about the SK while you were the SK while being prepared to make that defense?)

we've got better odds going for one of the people that could be SK or scum,

as InHim vanished on Augest 27'th and was not replaced until September 7th, it seems somewhat unlikely that he was the SK

MBL: High chance of being the SK.

Does it feel to anyone else here that Kinetic might be some kind of scum (perhaps SK) trying to direct the other scumgroup in order to avoid having both groups kill the same person?

I can't see a SK Glork doing what Glork did day 2, which was sticking his neck out to defend inHim while attacking Shteven at the same time, when they were both acting in similar ways; at the time, that made me suspect Glork a bit of possibly being Mafia, but a SK, especally one already getting some negitive attention from some quarters, would have no reason to act like that; too risky, too loud, too high profile.

if he really wanted to try to convince the mafia that you were the SK in the hopes they would kill you, then how does him claiming cop help him do that?

If you were SK, then I would think it quite likely for you you to act like this, trying to cast some doubt on Glork being SK, as an attempt to undermine his attacks against you, in order to make him less of a "confirmed innocent", and in order to create some general confusion over who the SK might be.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a townie mention the possibility of Glork being the SK, but as it seems like a quite unlikely possibility, I wouldn't really expect a townie to spend that much time pounding that point, especally the disturbing way you seem to do it in direct response to him calling you a SK.

your last argument with Glork has made you look more SK-ish then you did previously

I've thought you were a likely SK for a very long time.

if we're talking about someone who could only be one out of the three, like InHim's replacement, who could be Godfather, but couldn't be a Goon or a SK (a slip by Yos here?)

you were trying to plant the idea in everyone's head that the SK was basically a pro-town role who should be kept alive for a while. Which, I should note, is also how the SK has been playing. Your play makes perfect sense as a SK, if you're one of those people who basically plays SK like a vig with the goal of helping the town get rid of the mafia. I don't usually bother specifically SK hunting early on, but still, I really thought I had at least expressed that suspicion of you.

Even if you're right and the scum don't think you're the SK, that dosn't prove anything, perhaps it just means you've sucessfully tricked the scum. And I'm not sure why you seem so convinced that the scum want the SK dead at this point more then they want good guys dead

you thought the scum would think you were SK and kill you, but that no townie would think you were the SK?

playing it really low profile and trying not to be noticed at all dosn't really work as a sucessful SK stratagy. It's not bad as a mafia goon stratagy, because playing it low profile is likely to help you become one of the last 8 or 9 people left if no one notices you're doing it, but for the SK to win you have to make it all the way to the end and survive, and to do that you have to be more then low profile, you have to have some way to survive the part of the game when the town starts lynching off all the low profile people in a process of elimination (as usually happens towards the end of the game). I've been a sucessful SK a few times, and I've never done it by just staying low profile and hoping to not get noticed; you've got to do something else as well to make you a poor end-game lynch suspect, and you've got to do it right from the start.

So, no, I don't necessarally think that you're play is necessarally inconsistant with logical SK play; frankly, in order to have any chance win as a SK in a large game you've usually got to take some pretty big risks, and I could very easily see your day 1 play as an intentional plan to distance yourself from the role and discourage other people from SK hunting right from the start. You're right, it would be risky, but hey, trying to actually win as the SK requires some pretty big risks

SK play is so varied, it could in theory be almost anyone at this point; SK is one of the hardest roles to hunt for intentionally. I've explained why I don't think it's Glork or Inhim's replacement; other then that, it's hard to say

Actually, I'd think that if he was the SK he'd be focusing on trying to get mafia members lynched today, and want to leave likely SK suspects like you alive until later to reduce the chances of the town figuring out his own alignment.
Note: as scum worried about a cop, would try to get SK lynched today, which he's not really doing. Actively working to eliminate SK suspects, which could screw him in endgame, so less likely to be the SK himself.
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Post Post #2547 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:31 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Yogurt(Rogueben):

Yogurt wrote:Ithink I caught you. How would you know that TCS is definetly Mafia? Distancing? Perhaps Tcs isnt voting me so it isnt Omgussy and so you ahve one scum not on me? How are you sure that I am not the Sk? Im not saying I am, But I think you are sure im just a bad looking townie.

Hmm. Well, Whatever MBL said to the SK mustve Told him to go after scum.

Wait, How do those kills make sense as YB-SK?
Rogueben wrote:after my read through I have suspicions of you being the SK. The first thing to tip me off was definitely the "I'm SO proud of the SK". The other cases laid out by Glork and others also have some relevant points (I don't like the meta-game analysis though).

SK:
MBL
TCS
CTD
Jack
Shteven
Billy
Yosarian
Kinetic
Glork
Note: Glork pointed out Yogurt's townie claim was a terrible SK claim.
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Post Post #2548 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:41 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

TCS:

TCS wrote:I'm calling Guardian as SK. Anyone else feeling this?

So are you Mafia or SK? Feel like claiming Vig?

does the SK hitting scum increase Glork's odds of being the SK?

Glork Mafia, Shteven SK?

he's Glork, and if he's mafia/SK he's just going to win because no one is going to have the stones to string him up. MBL seems like he wants to suicide though. (note: what did that mean?)

For my money, either Glork or Inhim is the SK.

I am more and more suspiscious that Glork is our SK.

I think that Glork is the serial killer. And even if he's not, if he's vanilla town, I'll eat some celery (I don't have a hat, and celery is gross).

1) the SK killed mafia
2) Glork has been overdefensive
3) Glork does not appear to be linked to any other players
I think that Glork is the SK
Very black and white one-dimensional, unsupported observations about an SK. Almost seems to be fishing for reactions or for something that sticks. Though his instinct on Glork wasn't bad at the time.

Shteven:

Shteven wrote:I'm the only one who knows that I am town for sure (mafia could think I'm SK, but more or less, they also know I'm town

TCS: The SK hitting scum would increase Glork's chance of being the SK, but the probability increase is really very negliable. We can't even assume that the SK was intentionally targeting scum, he may have thought that MOS was town.

AE's got something worth going for; everyone's said time and time again that the SK is probably laying low, but we haven't really talked much about people laying low.

In a complete 180 degree turn from the last paragraph, the YB as SK is also interesting. He's certainly NOT been lying low, although he had a pretty good reason to kill MoS.

there's a chance she may have been onto the SK, since the SK had her killed. This will be a bit of a stretch, though may be interesting.

She first gave a long list of people who could be the SK, but followed it up with a pretty long post detailing a case for MBL being the SK.

Vote: TCS
FOS: Glork
FOS: Guardian
*In case I'm wrong it's totally MBL as the SK in the library with the lead pipe

The specific reason why you could be SK is exactly what you posted in your post, trying to say it wasn't a reason. It IS a reason. Let me break down the exact logic: (CASE)

If guardian was mafia-targeted, then he is not mafia, but is Anti-Town, so he is the SK.

The point of the case was to show you have a high chance of being the SK.

And my runner-up for SK is MBL, so guardian's claim of protecting him is quite unnerving.

I definitely agree that if guardian is scum and not the SK, then YB is the next play. But I don't think that's likely.

as an SK really all you need it is to kill everyone. Who dies isn't that important; if you kill all of your enemies, it's evidence that can be used against you. I've never been the SK, but if I was, I really think I'd just /roll for my targets.

planning a power role claim for self-preservation from day 1 is highly suggestive of being the SK.

He may still be a good canidate for SK, but that should be taken to show that I have no good targets for SK, rather than that he is an excellent one. I simply don't know who to place in front of him. TCS could be, but I'd lean towards TCS being scum.
Note: mealy-mouthed comments on who the SK might be. Draws attention not-so-subtly to the MBL frame job.
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Post Post #2549 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:56 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

inHim (CTD):

inHim wrote:If BM is town or SK, I expect there to be two scum in the above.

You said both groups could kill him if he were a doc, implying scum would also put the hit out on him, but the same doesn't seem to apply if Guardian were an SK. Reading it again, I actually see you angling Guardian as the SK instead of "covering" for him. Hmmm... angling Guardian as the SK... you're right, that's not cover, it's a setup. unvote vote: Glork - you've made a lot of mistakes, regardless of intent

while I'm certain Glork is evil, I'm not sure whether he's scum or SK. I'll also admit I'm stuck in a pretty big rut until someone on my list is dead (Guardian, Glork, TCS)... let's just kill one and see what happens, k?

If I may play a little as MBL - SK, kill Guardian, k? 'cause, I don't see any way that Guardian is SK.

Heh, Glork, I flat-out told the SK what I wanted. I don't think you ever did such? "Nail on the head" is directed toward what you might have been implying, and I think implicit directions are, like, huge scumtells.

if Glork is scum - he's feeding us one of his partners to stave off suspicion; we should probably hunt in the inactives he listed for a scum. If he's SK, he needs to die regardless.
Note: It's more the tone than anything, I don't see inHim as discussing the SK this flippantly. Plus, at the time, good observations of Glork as SK.

Twilight:

Twilight wrote:The SK mention is forced, and kinda reminds me of the tell where a role reveals himself, eg a doc congratulating the doc for a successful protection.

TCS could be a a SK, but coupled with TCS' play in Clue and the style that he seems to be adapting lately, he's lowered on my radar now. unFoS: TCS.

MBL, what explicitly about Guardian makes you think SK? I read that and coupled with my suspicion of YB see it as scummy but not SK tells per se.

Guardian's lie bothers me A LOT. I don't know if I think he is teamscum or SK or if I believe him, but I'd rather deal with him now then have these questions come up in the endgame.

Suppose that we manage to lynch the remaining teamscum, but can't find the SK, and we get into a known LyLO situation with three players including you. What should they do then? Go after each other and ignore the person who was caught fake claiming 30 or 40 pages back? If you are town you can see how the SK would have a relatively easy time of forcing your lynch, and then the entire game would be lost due to YOUR LIE. Now, you may think this seems far-fetched, but it is EXACTLY the scenario that the SK and teamscum are playing for, if you are in fact town.

you thought there was a good possibility of Guardian being a SK and knowing that he lied about his doc claim, you still seemed more interested in a TCS lynch and in a HH lynch

Even if you only thought Glork *might* be a cop, you still had him listed as possibly teamscum or SK. You don't do that with players you think are town power roles

As of right now I really think MBL is town. I don't buy him being scum at all, and the case against him as SK comes down to him mentioning the SK a lot, the SK targeting players that had some kind of connection to him, and Glork's meta-game. I simply don't believe that MBL would expect to survive as a SK through the LyLO situation that a SK has to get through in order to win by drawing such a circumstantial case against himself as the SK. The only problem is if we get into a LyLO situation, then MBL almost has to be lynched, unless there is some concrete evidence against another player. I'd prefer not to see that.

MBL, would you be apposed to your lynch tomorrow if we manage to lynch teamscum today, to avoid any shenanigans in LyLO?

If he IS the SK, then he probably made the only play appropriate to save himself, knowing that more than likely he had already been targeted by scum. But I don't see a lot in his play that makes me think SK from before his claim... I was actually pretty convinced there for a while that he was teamscum.

You've claimed that you don't have a read on who the SK might be, but you better get one, and for your sake it better be right. If we get into LyLO then we'd almost be forced to lynch you... I know I'd rather be burned by someone who set you up and took advantage on some silly mistakes you made in the first two days by talking about the SK too much than be burned by MBL-SK who basically broadcasted his role from early in the game to use it as a WIFOM defense in the endgame.

I think you're more likely town than SK, and not likely scum at all. Sometimes I get the feeling that you lurk in bigger games until the later stages then come out full-firing, but I haven't played with you enough to know for sure. I do however think that you could be a serious distraction/problem to deal with in the endgame if we don't peg the SK, and soon.

I think TCS might be a good candidate for SK; he's tried to play as low profile as possible, and jumping in with Glork here might be to try and bolster the "MBL is SK" feeling floating around. If MBL is lynched and Glork dies tonight, TCS would probably feel pretty good about his chances as SK

Glork: 99% believe his claim; the only possibility that I can see is he is the SK, but I don't buy it, as played out above and because his play is consistent with cop-play. If he's trying to run a burn on us then more power to him, it'll be one of the greatest plays I have ever seen if he pulls it off.

Someone in the game has stated that there is no way YB is the SK, but I don't remember who. If you think that, why? I don't particularly feel him being the SK either, but I don't really know why I feel that, and I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. The MoS kill could have easily been YB-SK.

he could still be the SK, but then I don't know if he'd think to edit his notes and sporadically mention "possible SK" with players. I especially don't see him adding the "High unlikeliness of being SK" to his YB entry.

I feel very strongly now that Kinetic is not teamscum. He could still be the SK, but I don't find this likely either. I can see the whole thing being completely genuine with the exception of him adding some references to Guardian being SK, or other player being SK, but I don't think he'd think to add a reference to YB not being the SK.

I feel that we have 1 shot at the SK at this point, before we have to almost exclusively look for remaining mafia. If we lynch town today we can go at the SK one more time (assuming that no mafia are NK'd), but then we'd have to rely on the SK killing mafia or not submitting a kill to get through the game. If we miss today then we are very, very close to LyLO and we have to pretty much ignore the SK until we finish the mafia.

I've already made an argument that MBL needs to be lynched before we get into an obvious LyLO situation with only the SK left. If we don't lynch MBL today then we might be heading for exactly that situation. However, I really don't feel that MBL is scum at this point, so I'm in kind of a bind.

I really feel the case against MBL comes down to him mentioning the SK and the SK's targets a lot the first 2 days. This could be him trying to set up a WIFOM defense and risk being NKed by the mafia throughout the game or, perhaps even more easily, the SK taking advantage of MBL's constant talk about the SK to set up a pretty good frame job - the latter would be pretty standard play for an SK.

I need a more careful reread of TCS and Jack, and maybe inHim, at this point, but they much more closely fit the typical profile for a SK than MBL; remaining relatively quiet and trying to survive till endgame. I began to become very suspicious of Jack when he claimed to be sure that MBL was the SK but still wanted a lynch of Kinetic. I don't think that he could really make the argument that leaving the SK in the game and thus the potential for 2 kills each night was a good idea, and if he was convinced that MBL was the SK then he should have been voting him.
Eliminated three players as likely SK, which is not optimal SK play. Is the only person who seems to have any sympathy for MBL at present, which on its face would be an SK tell :D but I'm not feeling it due to the fact he's clearing Glork and Kinetic as well. If he's the SK, he's artful.
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