Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Glork]

Unvote

I need to give this game some thought. I am currently evaluating the WIFOM aspect of Oman's claim. If he is town, it almost necessarily means that one of our Doctors is a Mafia Doctor somewhere.

[FaerieLord]

@Haschel. Read day one and I didn't like the way DG played, so I targetted her.

@Mirth. Important that you do the coin flip where no one sees you

@Glork. Only one way to find out.

[Zindaras]

Hmmm, interesting. My grasp of the Nash equilibrium isn't too solid (I'm better at calculus, though horribly rusty either way) but I think I understand what you're getting at. Decisin by coinflip?

Not necessarily a coinflip, but the most important thing is that the scum doesn't know who's going to protect who. You don't necessarily have to actually flip a coin, it's more that the Mafia doesn't really know what to do.

A Nash equilibrium is a set of strategies from all players where no players can get a higher pay-off by switching strategies. The point of that in this game is to get the Mafia in a position where there is no perfect, no free, no easy kill.

[Glork]

Also, I would say that my suspect list is currently Pug, Zindaras, Oman, and Fae, in no particular order.

Glork/Riki obviously town
Mexal very likely town
Mirth/Haschel almost certainly town
Goldfish -- probably not Mafia (unless GF or sanity issues), probably not SK (unless inv-immune and making bad/WIFOMy Vig-claim)

[DeliciousGoldfish]

Mirth: Just watch Ron Howard's 'A Beautiful Mind' starring Russel Crowe for a great depiction of Nash's equilibrium theorem. =)

I honestly am 50/50 on either Pug or Oman or both being scum right now...

Though Faerie, having waited soooooooo late to claim looks scummy to me as well. Again, I'm not saying someone who claimed earlier **cough**Pug**cough** wouldn't be scum.

I do agree with Zindaras' night action plan. As I am not an SK as some think I could possibly be, and using my vig kills while we're in such a role-claim bind wouldn't be smart, making it difficult for the mafia to hit would be good. HOWEVER, we still don't know which "docs" are just mafia. If we put protections by/for people in the wrong spots, we have a mafia connection, they let the other know who they are or aren't protecting, and we end up with a definite kill, and a big gap in our plan/strategy... Does that even make sense??? /

[Mirth]

I get the basics of a Nash equilibirium, but I doubt I could extend it beyond the Bonnie and Clyde example I'm most familiar with.

[Glork]

Glork's plan:
Lynch Oman

If Oman town, vig Pug, set up protections so that Zindaras is the "best" mafia kill.
If Oman scum, no vig, set up protections so that Pug is the "best" mafia kill.

Tomorrow we'll go from there, based on what happens today/tonight.



And, obviously, this is based on my own suspicions, so it's skewed to what I would do if I got to run the show.

[FaerieLord]

I find it stupid that people are suspicious of me because it took me that long to claim. Did I have a reason to claim?

Also, I like the plan.

[Pug89]

Vote:Oman

I don't like his claim. The only way it could be useful to town is if there is a scumdoc, but I could certainly see it as being extremly useful for mafia in such a doc heavy game.

[Zindaras]

Glork's plan:
Lynch Oman

If Oman town, vig Pug, set up protections so that Zindaras is the "best" mafia kill.
If Oman scum, no vig, set up protections so that Pug is the "best" mafia kill.

Tomorrow we'll go from there, based on what happens today/tonight.



And, obviously, this is based on my own suspicions, so it's skewed to what I would do if I got to run the show.

I'd love to hear the rationale behind this.

[Mirth]

I don't particularly like that plan as, despite Oman and Pug being my top suspects the logic of it doesn't follow. If Oman is scum, I would actually be more disturbed by Pug because of a possible attempt at clearing a partner while not knowing how many doctors there are in the game.

We should also write out the contingencies before the lynch for both scenerios as there is no talking post lynch.

I believe with Pug's vote, Oman is at L-3.

Also, no comments on anything else, Pug? A lot of stuff has happened since you last checked in, and all you can do is vote? (I'm thinking I would like Pug vig-killed regardless of Oman's alignment, because I' very tempted to vote Pug right now, but Oman's role could be more dangerous.)

If Pug is going to be set up for a vig kill, we have 8 players to worry about. If Pug isn't set up for a vig kill, we have 9. With three or four possible docs. This is where my ability to do math fails me.

[Glork]

Glork's plan:
Lynch Oman

If Oman town, vig Pug, set up protections so that Zindaras is the "best" mafia kill.
If Oman scum, no vig, set up protections so that Pug is the "best" mafia kill.

Tomorrow we'll go from there, based on what happens today/tonight.



And, obviously, this is based on my own suspicions, so it's skewed to what I would do if I got to run the show.

I'd love to hear the rationale behind this.

Like I said, Oman's role being town means that there is almost certainly a ScumDoctor in the game. I absolutely believe that Mirth and Haschel are protown, so the scumdoc(s) will be found among Pug/Zindaras. Thus, you two would be the best lynch/vig candidates. We take care of one (Pug) and if the mafia takes care of the other (Zindaras), they're almost doing our work for us.

Of the four suspects I listed, I think Fae is at the bottom of the list -- plus, his ability is confirmable. I realize that it doesn't say anything about his alignment, but it makes him worth keeping around, I beleive. Mexal is obviously the Cop and can work on investigating people as he sees fit. Glork/Riki are Masons -- the most "confirmed" of the bunch, but otherwise powerless.


Really, finding out Oman's alignment (though I'm really starting to think OmanTown and PugScum based on Pug's most recent post) is essential to figuring out the setup here. As far as raw suspicions go, I'd rather lynch Pug or possibly you, Zindie, but I might be willing to play the strategy/percentage game by getting info from an OmanLynch.

[Oman]

Pug just jumped on that idea from Glork!

Also, I understand my role is dangerous, and hence I've been playing like a vanillia.

[Glork]

Vote: Pug89

Screw the safe/information play. Simply put, I find Pug much more likely to be scum than Oman.

[Dead Rikimaru]

I will now read the last comments and make three posts:
1 about character alignement considerations
1 about setup considerations
1 with a night actions proposition

I intend to post all this today, but bear with me since I'm having a busy weekend and I spend a lot of time to write in English.

[Dead Rikimaru]

Considerations on characters/ possible alignements:

Mexal Pinocchio Cop Glork(I) Haschel(I)

I'm inclined to believe his claim, although I have issues with a cop in a game full of docs and the character gives me doubts about sanity.

PROS

Investigated Glork as innocent (what I know is true)
Was not counterclaimed

CONS

In a game with so many doctors a cop could be invincible, if he is a cop the possibility of the mafia be among the doctors increases.
Why is lying Pinicchio the cop? This makes me consider his sanity even if he is innocent. A bad sanity cop could be could polarize doc protections for nothing.
He claimed cop after Glork claimed mason and haschel claimed Shrek, making them convenient targets sice their claims alone quite cleared them.
If scum receive the full roles of nightkilled players and Jex/Muffin was the cop, claiming cop would be very safe.

Goldfish Princess Fiona Vigilante N/A? InHim/Glork

I'm inclined to believe she is indeed a killing role (vig or SK). Even if she is a SK she is more dangerous for mafia now than for town, so she should be kept alive for now.

PROS

Princess Fiona is a strong claim
FL confirmed she targeted Glork, and Mirth protected Glork, explaining why he is alive.

CONS

She insists she targeted inHim because he is lurking and nonproductive, but he actully had left the site while she was lurking and was still in the site.
She was so sure that inHim was scum but by the end of Day 1 she was voting on no one. If she had voted inHim he would have been lynched.
She is too sure a RB player is informed of RB, knowing this much about how RB works in this game may mean she belongs to Mafia and has a RB partner.

Mirth King Harold Doctor InHim/Glork InHim/Glork

The protection on Glork pratically confirms her as doc and Goldish as vig/sk. IF in the end she turns out scum she is probably together with Goldfish and probably Faerie Lord. I think she is a good candidate for investigation, since knowing her alignement could confirm/deny the above theories.

PROS

Claims to have protected Glork, explaining why he is still alive.

CONS

King Harold dies in Shrek 3, making his name more likely for a fake claim
King Harold is actually a frog, making him less probable for "sane doc", even if innocent.
She posted a lot ingame, but most of it was attacking Grek and ben and asking for clarifications. I have the impression she has actually participated less than it looks.

Zindaras Queen Lillian Doctor N/A DR

The biggest problem with Zindaras is his strange lurking on Day 1. Also one of the few roles not confirmed by the action of other role. A good candidate for tracking.

PROS

Queen Lilian is a strong claim. Very good character.

CONS

Is not one of the main characters, but is a very good character, making a strong fake claim
His protection is not confirmed by other roles.

Oman Dragon Doc Roleblocker N/A N/A

Oman claims to be a doc blocker. If he is protown it means the the royal docs are probably the mafia.If he is mafia it means that the royal docs are probably town. My idea (in post #3 is to have two pairs of night action combos based on the outcome of this lynch. My setup theories I will explain on post #2.

PROS

A "doc blocker" may mean a roleblocker if the docs are mafia in this game

CONS

As Zindaras noted he said he didn't like the amount of doc claims, while his role indicated the presence of multiple docs. It could indicate fake claim.
If the royal docs are not mafia, he is kind of detrimental to the town for blocking their protection, even if he is protown.

Haschel Shrek Doctor Jex Oman

Being uncontested Shrek and a doc investigation he is pratically cleared, unless the mod decided to give Shrek the godfather position.

PROS

The name of this game
Cop investigation

CONS

Would Shrek be a fake claim given by the mod?
Would Shrek be the godfather in this game?

Pug Merlin Doctor Nox Mirth

Although not counterclaimed on day 1, he is very different from the other docs. If the royal docs are the mafia he is the "real" doc of the game, otherwise he is probably scum.

PROS

None of the other claimed doctors counterclaimed him on day1 or was voting him by day's end.
Merlin was Artie's professor and Artie was protown (Grek)

CONS

Merlin's magic generally backfires, so even if protown he may not be a regular doc.
If the royals are not mafia, i think he probably is.
Like Zindaras, he didn't have other players nightactions to confirm him.

Faerie/Adam Big Bad Wolf Tracker Jex Goldfish (targ:Glork)

He was the last to claim, took long to claim character and in the end claimed a minor character. I still think it's worth a shot to test his ability next night.

PROS

Confirmed Goldfish targeted Glork, although he did it after he had already admitted that.

CONS

Took long to claim, and claimed a minor character.

[Dead Rikimaru]

As expected it took me very long to make the post above.
I'm going to sleep now, by tomorrow night I intend to post my views on possible character linkings/setup configurations (post #2) and the best combination of night actions depending on the lynching results (post #3).

Please don't lynch anyone before i'm finished.

[Glork]

Unvote

[Oman]

I'll agree to wait until DR is done.

unvote

[Mirth]

It seems DR is trying to break us into sets of characters. Couple things I don't like about DR's post based on his own logic:

1. The obscurity assumptions on name claims. Gingy, Pinocchio and Big Bad Wolf belong to the same class of characters, in that they always appear together. Differentiating amongst them and trying to use that as basis of a pro/con argument seems to be innately flawed. Thus on character claim alone Pinocchio and Bg Bad Wolf should be equally plausible. (In fact assuming for a second that neither Mexal nor Faerie are lying, I would venture of guess Jex would also have have an investigative role.)
2. Including Shrek as a royal doctor seems more counterintuitive than including Merlin in the set. That is Merlin is connected to Artie, a royal. He is also not a main character. Shrek, on the other hand, while technically royal, is not in the same class of character as either Lillian or Harold. If anything, as a hero, he would more logically be included in a grouping with Puss and Donkey do to role and type. (Hero vs. plot device/supporting character and fairytale creature vs. human.)

But then, these points, like any of your points based only on characterization, are only speculative and border very closely on the pier of the lake of WIFOM, and shouldn;t be looked at as particularly valid.

The only great point you raise, I believe, is in the possibility of Mexal's sanity. (I have mentioned my own sanity before, as well as Goldfish's effectiveness. I only have partial sanity confirmation *if* Goldish has full efficacy. I obviously lack full sanity confirmation due to not knowing who the night one target was. This same point applies to the other claimed doctors.)

[Mirth]

Oman, no comments on anything else? Just waiting?

[Oman]

I'll comment on his analysis when he's done.

I've already said I didn't like pugs jump on Glork's idea.

I'm interested that you didn't ask glork if he has other comments, when all he did was unvote.

[Mirth]

I don't find Glorks unvote particularly noteworthy. You, on the other hand, have the most votes right now, and happen to be one of my top two suspects, so I'm watching your moves. You also failed to answer a question I've asked multiple times. When you said you knew who the doc was, who did you mean and why?

[Oman]

Oh I meant Haschel...sorry. There were numerous tells. I'll look for them if you want, but I'm lazy as sin, so unless you request I can.

[Oman]

Between this and study, this won out:

1 reason was this

Simple; I do not believe that he protected Mirth. I believe that he targeted Jex last night.

This was unwavering. To which I replyed:

This is s pretty heavy accusation. You seem pretty sure too? Any reason?

Yes.

The combination of confidence, mixed with a stern yes but no more reveal left me with the knowledge HC was a doc.

I'm not sure if the real doctor should come out yet.

This was an EBWOP that looked sort of "oh and by the way" to me, making me think he was A) suppressing the town/scum's desire for his own claim and B) making himself look non-doc.

Am I the only one that can pick the real doc?

Nope.

Just gut at the beggining but he quickly had me knowing it.