Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Glork]

Well obv you would protect him due to thinking he was town, Zindaras, but I want to know what protown tells he had given off on D1 that made you think he was protection-worthy.

[Oman]

I just want to post a bit of a defence of my role:

I know its better to do nothing unless we have a scumdoc, hence, I did nothing.

[Mirth]

Since Faerie more or less claimed what his power is, Oman would you mind telling us how exactly your claimed role would be helpful?

[Oman]

Scumdoc, thats the only reason. Also would have been a good idea (I see now) to come out D1 and say "Doc heavy game?" so that info could've helped. I dunno.

[Mirth]

Could you please elaborate on that answer? Could you also explain your change of opinion on Goldfish?

[Oman]

Well with all these docs a follow the cop game could be helpful.

[FaerieLord]

@DR. Town aligned wolf . Makes sense no? Also, I have not seen shrek so I do not know the wolf's role in the film. Is he another random cartoon character?

@DG. Why should I claim? I had no pressure on me, people thought I'm town and ATA had a reasonable game. Screaming 'HEY SCUM! I CAN CATCH YOU!!!!! DO ME A FAVOUR AND KILL MEEEEE!" is not a viable tactic, and I'm sure that me and mexal are most probably this night's kill.

So that is my reasoning.

I find it stupid people are suspecting me of being scum for claiming last. I had no reason to claim

That said, Oman has a really non-pro-town role, as it can do 3 times the harm to town than to scum. (Assuming 3 town docs / 1 scum doc)

[Mirth]

You're the cross-dressing wolf? Heheh

Night one, whom did you track?

[Zindaras]

2 is the generally used train of thought (and, in my opinion, the correct one, assuming ceteris paribus, in other words, no one else is going to change his vote). 1 is a possiblity. But there is no reason not to vote.

:badposting:

See: Mafia 60, Day Two.

I don't really get this reference.

Meh, with no deaths N1 (I didn't realize it was night-start), Zindie's "There's probably no SK" comment isn't as uber-scummy as I initially thought. I still don't like it. What's the point of bringing it up, Zindaras?

It and all other "thoughts" were things that came to my mind before "Goldy" when I saw that Jex had died. I would not normally post those things. Except role-reveal (maybe. I think pointing that out could possibly have a point) and kittens.

No, I fail to understand how a bandwagon clears someone of being scum. An easy lynch on an anti-town player is just as possible. I'm not particularly suspicious of DR, but I most decidedly don't like your certainty about him. What is your hunch based on exactly? Please elaborate?

Really easy 'wagons tend to be on town. There are exceptions (Battle Mage in Board Games jumps to mind) but it is generally true.

I reject this theory that not voting for someone to overtake the wagon means that Mirth is responsible for the Grek lynch. I'd say the people on him are more responsible (even then 2 votes at deadline doesn't give us much).

Of course they're more responsible, but people like Mirth also had the ability to switch their votes and they didn't. In that sense, they are also responsible for Grek's death.

Ouch, I heavily disagree with this. You don't vote the scummiest of A or B, you vote for who you think is scummiest. Nothing should control a pro-town vote.

Note the huge strawman here. My original post:

1) I don't like any of these votees. I'm going to vote my main suspicion instead.
2) I don't like any of these votees, but since one of them is going to die, I'm going to vote the scummiest from the set.

By quoting only 2 (and even leaving the 2 out), Oman tries to make it look like I said this was the only possibility I raised.

FoS: Oman

Glork's 484 is good.

I think Goldy is likely not Mafia, but possibly SK.

Oh, and one other thing, the people most convinced that I'm town are you and Oman. Also the people most convinced that Goldfish is lying. Coincidence?

That's rather interesting isn't it? It's also interesting that your two main suspects at the time, Ben and inHim, were also Goldy's main suspects. I guess great minds think alike right?

The irony is staggering.

Anyway, I am Pinocchio, and I am the cop. Camisade investigated inHim N1 which is why I believed Glork and refused to lynch him D1. I investigated Haschel N2 and he is town therefore I believe his claim.

Why target Haschel N2?

Followin question to Zindaras and Haschel (since I already gave my logic): what were your thoughts when Pug claimed?

Eh, I mainly wanted to not be outed as doc myself, hence why I voted inHim over him. This is also why I kept thinking and saying Pug was scummy.

I didn't use my power last night, simply because I didn't want to mess with doc protects if I didn't KNOW there was a scumdoc.

So, basically, you're going to wait until someone claims Mafia Doc before blocking them?

Given the fact that Oman's first vote on Day 2 was on Pug, a claimed Doc, you'd expect him to have blocked Pug the night before. Scumdoc, right?

Oman's claimed target does not fit in with his behaviour.

I just realized that masonry doesn't clear all masons, as mixed mason groups can exist. I'll post my complete thoughts on that one later.

Glork has claimed confirmed innocence.

Well obv you would protect him due to thinking he was town, Zindaras, but I want to know what protown tells he had given off on D1 that made you think he was protection-worthy.

As I said before, I found his entry to the game very solid. I thought the way he questioned Mirth and generally brought activity to the game was townie. This post was also one of my major considerations. Since I knew myself to be doc, I had a pretty good reason to believe Pug was lying. Which made me think Riki was town.

Scumdoc, thats the only reason. Also would have been a good idea (I see now) to come out D1 and say "Doc heavy game?" so that info could've helped. I dunno.

And this from the guy who said he didn't believe there could be 3 docs in the game.

Confirm Vote: Oman

Die scum.

[Mexal]

Why target Haschel N2?

I explained why already.

[FaerieLord]

@Mirth. I cross dress?

Also, as I said before. ATA targetted Jex. He found out that Jex targetted him.

[Zindaras]

Why target Haschel N2?

I explained why already.

Yeah, sorry, that's what you get for writing up posts while reading.

@Mirth. I cross dress?

Yeah. It's pretty funny/awesome.

[Mexal]

Well.

I'm all for killing Oman. Everything everyone is saying points to scum. Plus, it'll get me to night so I can investigate someone else.

I'd love it if at least one of those pretty docs out there could heal me. Would hate to die Thanks!

Vote: Oman

[Zindaras]

Mod

, vote count?

I think all the docs should use weighted probabilities for their protections, like Glork said he'd use in Scrubs (if my memory serves me well). That way, the scum will never know who to hit.

[Zindaras]

EBWOP: I also think that the Vig kill should be led. The Tracker should investigate one of the docs and the Cop should do whatever the hell he wants.

[Mirth]

@Mirth. I cross dress?

Also, as I said before. ATA targetted Jex. He found out that Jex targetted him.

Yes, Big Bad Wolf prances around in a woman's nightgown.

Ohhh ATA stands for Adam...okay... I'm dense.

I'm also going to

Unvote:Oman

for the moment being, because I don't know what the vote count is at present and I don't want a lynch just yet. But my vote will go back on him soon.

Next post will have chart.

[Mirth]

Player Character Claim N1 choice N2 choice

Pug Merlin Doctor Nox Mirth
Goldfish Princess Fiona Vigilante N/A? InHim/Glork
Glork/InHim Puss in Boots Mason
DR/Ben Donkey Mason
Mirth King Harold Doctor InHim/Glork InHim/Glork
Zindaras Queen Lillian Doctor N/A DR
Haschel Shrek Doctor Jex Oman
Mexal Pinocchio Cop Glork(I) Haschel(I)
Oman Dragon Doc Roleblocker N/A N/A
Faerie/Adam Big Bad Wolf Tracker Jex Goldfish (targ:Glork)

Next post will have thoughts.

[Mirth]

Grrrrr it screwed up my formatting. Lets try this again:

Player-------Character----------Claim -----------N1 choice -------------N2 choice

Pug ---------Merlin--------------Doctor-------------Nox------------------Mirth
Goldfish-----Princess Fiona-----Vigilante ---------N/A?----------------InHim/Glork
Glork/InHim--Puss in Boots----Mason
DR/Ben------ Donkey----------Mason
Mirth----------King Harold-----Doctor------------InHim/Glork--------InHim/Glork
Zindaras-----Queen Lillian----Doctor------------N/A-------------------DR
Haschel-------Shrek-----------Doctor-----------Jex-------------------Oman
Mexal--------Pinocchio--------Cop--------------Glork(I)-------------Haschel(I)
Oman--------Dragon--------Doc Roleblocker---N/A-----------------N/A
Faerie/Adam--Big Bad Wolf--- Tracker---------Jex(targ:Adam)---Goldfish (targ:Glork)


The commentary:
This means that Glork is almost certainly innocent due to a 3-way confirm on Goldfish's action and a cop-investigation resulting in an innocent. (There is a chance Glork could be a Godfather claiming masons with DR, but I think this is a very slim chance)
This also means that Goldfish is most likely innocent due to a 3-way confirm on her action. (Unless she was fishing for the doc that stopped her, she has no reason to come out with the claim.)
This means DR is most probably innocent. Due to being a mason with Glork, assuming they are both town masons and Glork isn't secretly a Godfather.
I'll buy Haschel, Mexal, and Faerie's claims for now.

Now then, we don't know if Mexal is a sane cop, if the claim is real, but our plan should focus on keeping him alive for as long as possible. The doctors, if doctors they be, shouldn't announce beforehand whom they are protecting, to maximize the probility of a no kill night, as long as someone is protecting Mexal. I think Mexal should start investigations with probably Pug or Zindaras, because I'm not sure if I believe their claims.

The reason I asked for Oman and Faerie to claim was this: I wanted them to throw out their night choices in the open so they couldnt lie later on. I also wan't a confirmation on whether my protection of Glork was effective or if there was another factor involved (since we likely have more than one doctor, I don't think that all of us have total efficency. I know that I have at least partial efficiency. Actually, we don't really know that either, because Goldfish might not be a totally effective vig, but its the best assumption at the moment.) I also didn't want either of them claiming later on in an attempt to frame.

Plan: keep Mexal alive. It would probably be good to keep Goldfish alive, too, since we can then get a town directed night kill.

[Zindaras]

Why are you buying Haschel's claim and not mine, Mirth? And what do you think about using a weighted probability set for determining doc protections? (Note: even if we determine a probability set, the doc's eventual choice need not be random)

[Mirth]

Why are you buying Haschel's claim and not mine, Mirth? And what do you think about using a weighted probability set for determining doc protections? (Note: even if we determine a probability set, the doc's eventual choice need not be random)

I'm more skeptical of you because you claimed protecting DR after DR and Glork already came out as masons, as there might be something to gain from claiming to protect a player who is most likely innocent. I'm less suspicious of Haschel because of his claim of protecting Oman, from whom there wasn't much to gain at the moment. Now then, I know my skepticism of you is based on WIFOM, but I don't doubt your claim as much as I doubt Pug's, so I would prefer above all if Mexal investigated Pug.

I'm not sure what you mean by probability set. Please explain.

Also, I noticed Oman didn't answer my question about who he thought the doctor was.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Followin question to Zindaras and Haschel (since I already gave my logic): what were your thoughts when Pug claimed?

Sorry, just noticed this question. I thought that he was 100% scum trying to get me to counterclaim. I responded by unvoting so that it would not appear that I was the real doctor, and played the start of Day 2 accordingly. I voted him right away, and when pressed for why, I said

Simple; I do not believe that he protected Mirth. I believe that he targeted Jex last night.

The purpose of this was to imply that I had some sort of night action reason to suspect him while at the same time hoping to convince the scum that there was still a doctor out there who could protect me.

Anyhoo, why did FaerieLord track DG on Night 2?

As for our strategy tonight, Mirth should protect Mexal, I should protect Mirth, Zindaras should protect me. Pug, if he is not the lynch today, should protect Zindaras. If any doctor other than Pug is NKed, then the doctor that was supposed to be protecting them is likely scum. Is this viable strategy?

[Mirth]

Im not liking it too much because the mafia could then go after a nondoctor instead and invalidate the chain. I'd like it if either Faerie or Goldfish got protection, as they might prove useful later, probably Goldfish more so, but I do plan on protecting Mexal as we know that have been effective at least once. (probably)

[Zindaras]

I'm not sure what you mean by probability set. Please explain.

We want to protect the following people, if they're telling the truth:

Glork-Confirmed Innocent Mason.
Riki-See Glork.
Mexal-Claimed Cop.
FaerieLord-Claimed Tracker.
Goldy-Claimed Vig, ability confirmed (please note that Goldy can still be SK. While I doubt this, given the timing of her claim, we shouldn't forget about it)
Mirth-Claimed Doc, ability confirmed (and sanity, too).
Zindaras-Claimed Doc.
Haschel-Claimed Doc.
Pug-Claimed Doc.

Which, well, basically amounts to "everyone".

It's like a coordination game in game theory. A pure strategy, like the one you put forth (Pug-->Zindaras-->Haschel-->Mirth-->Mexal), could easily be beaten by a mixed strategy. For example, we could put forth the following strategy:

-Mirth: 50% protect Mexal, 50% protect FaerieLord.
-Haschel: 50% protect Mirth, 50% protect Goldfish.
-Zindaras: 50% protect Haschel, 50% protect Glork.
-Pug: 50% protect Zindaras, 50% protect Riki.

This way, the only one the Mafia can safely hit is Pug. All other kills have a 50% chance of failure (assuming perfect sanity from the docs' side).

The probabilities as presented here are only examples. I think there is probably a better mixed strategy, though I think this is a good starting point.

Now we just need to find the Nash equilibrium(s).[/math geek]

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Vote Count

Oman (3): Glork, Zindaras, Mexal

Pug89 (2): Haschel Cedricson, Oman

6 to lynch

[Mirth]

Hmmm, interesting. My grasp of the Nash equilibrium isn't too solid (I'm better at calculus, though horribly rusty either way) but I think I understand what you're getting at. Decisin by coinflip?