Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Oman]

AlyG what is your stance on originality?

[vollkan]

As mafia I do not prioritise vig, they often kill townies N1-2-3.

Regardless:

If he claimed cop he'd likely get counterclaimed
If he claimed doc we'd know he's lying
If he claimed RB he'd likely be counterclaimed.

Plus if he was the SK he would have known vig was 100% guarenteed safe claim(who puts and SK a vig AND a scumgroup in a game)

I know for a fact that if I was mafia and had a confirmed SK/vig they would be my first priority. I don't know how you can suggest that a vig/SK would not be the scum's main target. Furthermore, even if they WEREN'T the number one priority (I think a SK would be), by identifying himself the SK has set himself up to get NKed at the opportune moment.

Yes, cop and doc would likely get countered; but not if he claimed weak doc. Furthermore, RB is probably quite significantly safer. Anyway, there are a myriad of other less common roles he could claim.

And yes, vig is a safe claim; that's true, but you entirely ignore the fact that it is also a near-guaranteed NK if not immediately then at the opportune moment.

Now, next on the agenda.

Unvote, Vote: Oman. FoS: Dybeck

Reason: Oman is now arguing firmly, and very poorly, that Orig is the SK. The fact that he is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig.

I had voted Dybeck for this same reason. Earlier on Oman was far more balanced, but this latest stuff by him is moving possible even beyond Dybeck.

[Oman]

but not if he claimed weak doc.

I can count the number of mini normals with a weak doc on one hand I bet.

RB is probably quite significantly safer

Hell of a lot more common than a weak doc.

LOL! Wait, Vollkan was voting for originality, and even posted points on why he was an SK and not a vig and now you want to let him live?

[dybeck]

For a while I thought vollkan actually believed what he's been saying.

I'm 100% certain that originality is scum, and the fact is that Vollkan is defending him in the face of the fact orig has:

1) been fingered by a power-role who had absolutely no need to claim otherwise
2) made a claim that just isn't plausible.
3) made slips yesterday.

just makes me believe that orig is mafia, and vollkan is his scummate. Vollkan is clutching at straws trying to prove something that's highly unlikely, using highly unlikely scenarios.

FOS: Vollkan

,

FOS: Anyone who doesn't take any notice when a protown power-role outs himself because he's found a scum

Honestly guys, lynches do not get any easier than this. You need to think.

[vollkan]

I can count the number of mini normals with a weak doc on one hand I bet.

Maybe so, but it would still be safer in terms of "winning the game" than claiming vig.

LOL! Wait, Vollkan was voting for originality, and even posted points on why he was an SK and not a vig and now you want to let him live?

Oho; now you are telling lies about what I said. Bad move Oman.

Let's see:

My feeling at the moment is that Dybeck is our SK and that AlyG is scum with Orig.

Orig targeted Carrot, right. Why would the SK go for Carrot? Carrot was attacking somebody else. There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot. As such, I think it

more likely that Orig is mafia than SK.

....[numbers galore]

If Orig is the vig, then we likely have 6:3.
That means that a mislynch (ie. lynching vig-Orig) today puts us in LYLO tomorrow.

My stupid voting post was:

As such, Vote: Originality If he is scum, then we are in lylo or 3:2:1. If he is vig we are in LYLO.

Which I then fixed with:

Unvote What the hell am I thinking?

If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things.

So, yes, I was voting for Orig...for 3 hours. And, I never once argued he was most likely a SK. It was always a possibility.

[Oman]

Right, perhaps I was slightly wrong in my sentence, allow me to ammend:

and even posted points on why he was an SK

and mafia

and not a vig and now you want to let him live?

[vollkan]

Crossed with Dybeck.

For a while I thought vollkan actually believed what he's been saying.

I'm 100% certain that originality is scum, and the fact is that Vollkan is defending him in the face of the fact orig has:

1) been fingered by a power-role who had absolutely no need to claim otherwise
2) made a claim that just isn't plausible.
3) made slips yesterday.

1) How does this prove Orig is scum? This proves Orig is vig just as much as it proves he is SK/Mafia.
2) It is plausible. In fact, the very fact he has claimed it in light of its inevitable consequences makes me think it to be very plausible.
3) Not enough to prove he is scum, particularly in light of his claim.

just makes me believe that orig is mafia, and vollkan is his scummate. Vollkan is clutching at straws trying to prove something that's highly unlikely, using highly unlikely scenarios.

FOS: Vollkan, FOS: Anyone who doesn't take any notice when a protown power-role outs himself because he's found a scum

Honestly guys, lynches do not get any easier than this. You need to think.

Clutching at straws? I think my case for Orig being vig is a hell of a lot more convincing than your blind support for a lynch or Oman's feeble arguments.

What are you FoSing people for? I took notice of AlyG's claim; I have analysed it to no end. I have just come to the conclusion that Orig is very likely not a SK.

I guess this leaves us with Orig being vig or being mafia.

For this, I turn to shaft.ed:

If Orig is Mafia:

[/u]

6:2:1

: A SK must exist to account for second NK. Would it be reasonable here to assume the SK would target orig in the night? If so lynching him is a possible waste opening up the SK to kill a likely townie instead. Lynching someone else would give us information to work from tommorow. If SK kills orig and he is scum we are left with 4:1:1 in wcs (75%), 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK(13%), 5:0:1 if we lynch the other scum (13%). If SK kills town and we don't lynch orig we are left with 3:2:1 in wcs (pretty much over, 75%), or 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (13%) and again 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK (13%). This set-up is very dependent on SK actions. Totals for 6:2:1 63% town advantage, 38% likely town loss (3:2:1)

5:3:1

: If the SK kills orig at night we are left with 3:2:1 in worst case scenario(63%), 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (25%), and 4:3:0 (LYLO) if we hit the SK (13%). If the SK kills town and we don't go for orig we're at 2:3:1 in wcs (63%), 3:2:1 if we hit scum (25%) and again 4:3:0 if we hit the SK (13%). Totals for 5:3:1 13% town advantage, 13% LYLO, 44% likely town loss (3:2:1), 32% auto-loss (2:3:1)

[vollkan]

I guess this leaves us with Orig being vig or being mafia.

I had another thought.

If Orig is mafia, then he knows there is a SK. Therefore, why would he claim vig when he could claim a safer pro-town role.

For argument's sake, let's use RB.
If Orig claims RB, we don't lynch him and he is not an immediate threat to the SK. Therefore, much safer.
Weak doc would be even safer still, along with many others.

It just doesn't make sense for scum-Orig to claim vig when that claim is the one which has the greatest chance of getting him killed.

This appears to be precisely what shaft.ed concluded when he said:

Would it be reasonable here to assume the SK would target orig in the night? If so lynching him is a possible waste opening up the SK to kill a likely townie instead.

[Oman]

You know what...I think you're right. Regardless of his alignment, he's more than likely dead tomorrow (baring RBs and Docs).

unvote

This will go on AlyG or dybeck.

[vollkan]

In that case, I return from whence I came:

Unvote, Vote: Dybeck

.

His posts continue to sit as badly with me as they did when I voted with him. I have already addressed his latest post.

[Oman]

I'm 100% certain that originality is scum,

this line sucks. Unless you're claiming cop with a guility on him, or siblings or something.

No, I did not ask you to claim.

However, I beleive there is no danger at this time in

vote

ing

dybeck

[originality]

I got back earlier then I thought. Alright guys, I don't really know what else to say at this point, except I'm definitely not mafia: If I was, I would have claimed doc/cop so someone could have counterclaimed me and thus revealing himself.

And: If you guys want me to, I could just not kill someone tonight (but only if we misslynch, otherwise there's no reason for me not to)

[vollkan]

And: If you guys want me to, I could just not kill someone tonight (but only if we misslynch, otherwise there's no reason for me not to)

No; you should kill...just be careful.

We could give you instructions depending on the outcome today, but there are obvious problems in telegraphing our plans (because if you aren't a threat to the scum they won't take you out).

We need you to be as uncertain as possible to them. Therefore, you should kill.

[Oman]

I'd prefer you didn't, but as you said, if we mislynch you might as well I guess, we're put in that same odd/even ratio.

[originality]

Alright. So who else's input are we still missing? Elias who is gone, lucienne who is gone, and Dr. B who I don't know what the hell is up with. And AlyG I guess, he hasn't said much since I claimed.

[shaft.ed]

No time for long post just want to add:

I realized that if Orig is the vig, the mafia would benefit greatly from his lynch as they don't have to waste their NK on him and can thus take out our claimed tracker during the night instead.

Also on the matter of vig killing, I'd prefer a no kill if you are the vig.
If we hit scum we'll be at 5:2 tommorow. A mis-kill puts us at 4:2 (LyLo)
If we hit town we'll be at 4:3 tommorow (LyLo). A mis-kill puts us at 3:3 (loss).
I'd also be more inclined to believe you're not a SK if you take a night off.

Finally, we still only have 2-3 people contributing to the discussion. I thought we were going to be keeping the voting down to prevent a possibly quicklynch.

FoS vollkan

for the votes.

No time for my other points.

[Oman]

Another thing. I've asked this before:

DOCTOR BLACKSTRIKE! I do not ask for a claim I simply ask: Did your night action or the result of it give you any information that can help us go towards a scum lynch?

[vollkan]

Finally, we still only have 2-3 people contributing to the discussion. I thought we were going to be keeping the voting down to prevent a possibly quicklynch. FoS vollkan for the votes.

It's five to lynch, though. If the wagon gets any higher without good reason I will unvote, but for now I think it is safe.

Also on the matter of vig killing, I'd prefer a no kill if you are the vig.
If we hit scum we'll be at 5:2 tommorow. A mis-kill puts us at 4:2 (LyLo)
If we hit town we'll be at 4:3 tommorow (LyLo). A mis-kill puts us at 3:3 (loss).
I'd also be more inclined to believe you're not a SK if you take a night off.

You're right. Don't kill tonight Orig.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #15!

dybeck (3) - originality, volkann, Oman
originality (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Everyone else

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[Elias_the_thief]

Caught up to page 15. finishing the reread tomorrow.

[AlyG]

Caught up to page 15. finishing the reread tomorrow.

Well at least your here. And where's Blackstrike?! We need him here! and we need to know what he did during the night!

[shaft.ed]

AlyG care to add more. There's a lot going on and I can see you're paying attention, but I'd really like to hear something from you. Especially since you outed originality, I'd like to know where you stand on his claim and, if you believe it, who else looks suspicious in your book.

[shaft.ed]

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

I'm 100% certain that originality is scum

You seem very certain of your predictions. Did you end up being co-mod?

That said I'm not totally comfortable with a dybeck lynch at this point. While I agree heartily with vollkan, I'm a little bit worried of scum buddying up to me. I am also a bit uneasy with Oman's tendency to change his mind so easily as of late. So for reasons I've mentioned earlier I'd really like dybeck to not be at L-2 right now. At least let's hear from Dr. BS and Elias.

[vollkan]

That said I'm not totally comfortable with a dybeck lynch at this point. While I agree heartily with vollkan, I'm a little bit worried of scum buddying up to me. I am also a bit uneasy with Oman's tendency to change his mind so easily as of late. So for reasons I've mentioned earlier I'd really like dybeck to not be at L-2 right now. At least let's hear from Dr. BS and Elias.

I'm willing to give Oman a certain amount of leeway for the mind-changing. I've made so many errors in my attempts to try and work out the best course of action that I can understand a certain amount of alteration from him. This is a confusing game. Of course, his insistence on lynching Orig did strike me as a bit too definite and I didn't like it.

[quote-"AlyG"]
Well at least your here. And where's Blackstrike?! We need him here! and we need to know what he did during the night!
[/quote]

Something here rubs me the wrong way. I think it may be the fact that AlyG is trying to prod other people into talking when he has had pretty much no input since the claim. Particularly given that AlyG/Orig could be a possible mafia pairing, I don't like the fact that this post suggests he is "here" but lurking.

I know that if I was a tracker and I had tracked someone on a NK victim, I would be posting a lot about it (though I post a lot anyway).

Something else,

AlyG- You are fucking retarded. You should have kept your mouth shut, why the hell would you claim

us two

for no real reason? Your personal grudge against me is affecting your view of things. Why am I saying this? IM THE FUCKING VIG.

Why carrotcake? I got a bad vibe from him, It was mostly a gut feeling.

The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed us up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me.

Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of us now and NK the other at night.

Dammit AlyG.

Orig refers to him and AlyG as an "us" and then expresses real regret about how the "

strategy

" (VERY interesting word choice) exposes either of them to a lynching. If Orig is vig, then he has good reason to consider AlyG protown, but I don't get why he immediately fears the possibility of them BOTH being lynched.

And also:

It won't be as hard because if there isn't an RB then i know 1 member of the

mafia.

For some reason, the possibility of Orig being SK is not mentioned.

This is not conclusive by any stretch, but I don't like it at all.

[Oman]

Sorry about my mind changing, but that was all within the context of numbers and vollkan and I both messed them up a lot.