California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Zindaras]

Is nightkill discussion inherently not useful?

My opinion is that, barring extreme cases (like Mafia 60, as you were bound to bring up that one), nightkill discussion is useless or almost useless. There are some cases where it becomes more useful, but they usually involve doc claims and other such powerful claims, claims that would be expected to die the next night. And even then, it's a weak line of discussion. The argument "X died. X was suspicious of Y, so Y must be his buddy!" is an extroardinarily weak argument, and I find it very scummy.

Do you think LmL has ulterior motives in pushing the Mgm wagon?

No. I just think he's overstating the importance of that post.

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

9 to lynch.

foolinc: 5 (Dragon Phoenix, Gaspar, LoudmouthLee, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha)
Adele: 2 (Dani Banani, VitaminR)
Mgm: 2 (logicticus, Zindaras)
Skruffs: 2 (Cogito Ergo Sum, Tamuz)
IH: 1 (Thesp)
logicticus: 1 (Mgm)
Tamuz: 1 (Skruffs)

Current Condorcet Winner:

foolinc

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put this information in this form.

[Thesp]

Is nightkill discussion inherently not useful?

My opinion is that, barring extreme cases (like Mafia 60, as you were bound to bring up that one), nightkill discussion is useless or almost useless. There are some cases where it becomes more useful, but they usually involve doc claims and other such powerful claims, claims that would be expected to die the next night. And even then, it's a weak line of discussion. The argument "X died. X was suspicious of Y, so Y must be his buddy!" is an extroardinarily weak argument, and I find it very scummy.

It's been my experience that scum tend to kill people they think are power roles and/or beginning to be suspicious of them. In fact, WIFOM kills tend to

backfire

(e.g. game I might have been able to win at Thespival had I killed MeMe instead of AmeliaSlay), and scum tend to be far more straightforward with their approach. What in your experience suggests that scum are more likely to draw conclusions from analyzed discussion of nightkills? (I also strongly disagree that nightkill discussion is

inherently

WIFOM, though it certainly can be.)

[Zindaras]

I think any Townie would recognize the WIFOM in "The scum killed X. X was suspicious of Y, so Y must be scum" (buddy was a wrong pick of words in that particular post). Therefore, I don't think they would make the argument to begin with.

Considering the fact that scum are usually more interested in hunting power roles and killing people that are viewed as town, the logic is even worse.

[Thesp]

I think any Townie would recognize the WIFOM in "The scum killed X. X was suspicious of Y, so Y must be scum" (buddy was a wrong pick of words in that particular post). Therefore, I don't think they would make the argument to begin with.

I don't think the argument concludes, "Y must be scum", it usually goes "Y

might be

scum", and the WIFOM is debatable. If there's demonstrable evidence to suggest that the nightkill is not prompted by powerrole hunting, it's perfectly reasonable to consider why the person killed was killed,

since it can give clues as to who the scum are

. Though the reliability of it is far from certain, I'm not sure why you would want to deny that tool, nor am I convinced of your argument re: scumminess of those who make the arguments.

[Dani Banani]

@Talitha
not so much confidence as it is that's the feeling i got reading the exchange... i also am having a hard time getting reads on people, including you...

@Talitha,
is this the 'threatening' post you're talking about... i fail to see how it is 'threatening'...

@Thesp,
i already gave my reasoning for bringing up the secret word... Mgm hit it right on the head when he said

He obviously had a secret word. It's quite hard to be the first to ask about them if you don't know they exist...

your attacks on me feel a little strained, almost like you're looking for a reason to make me look suspicious... i wouldn't be surprised if you're a lyncher w/ me as a target...

@Mgm,
i thought both you & LmL had said something about revealing your secret word...

Unvote:

Vote: Adele

, Thesp, foolinc, Mgm, Dragon Phoenix, Talitha, PTMB, Zindaras, Gaspar, [everyone else], Dani Banani

[LoudmouthLee]

i thought both you & LmL had said something about revealing your secret word...

Absolutely not. I just said that I had a secret word and I used it. I didn't notice anything at all in regards to it.

In other news:

It's been my experience that scum tend to kill people they think are power roles and/or beginning to be suspicious of them. In fact, WIFOM kills tend to backfire (e.g. game I might have been able to win at Thespival had I killed MeMe instead of AmeliaSlay), and scum tend to be far more straightforward with their approach. What in your experience suggests that scum are more likely to draw conclusions from analyzed discussion of nightkills? (I also strongly disagree that nightkill discussion is inherently WIFOM, though it certainly can be.)

I inherently disagree with you in regards to this. I feel that the nighkills vary on the strength level of the scumteam. For instance...

Let's take a game with a few top level players, a few middle level players, and a few nobodies. One of the top level players dies in a night start game. Even though you might feel this is WIFOM, I would assume our scumteam consists primarialy of middleground players.. ones who KNOW who the top level players are, but aren't slick enough to think of possible doc protections.

I believe, although WIFOM, looking at kills presents a wonderful way to generate suspicions.

[Thesp]

@Thesp,
i already gave my reasoning for bringing up the secret word... Mgm hit it right on the head when he said

He obviously had a secret word. It's quite hard to be the first to ask about them if you don't know they exist...

your attacks on me feel a little strained, almost like you're looking for a reason to make me look suspicious... i wouldn't be surprised if you're a lyncher w/ me as a target...

That's the thing - I think you're lying about your reasoning for bringing up the secret word. I agree I think you have a secret word. Was I unclear on that point? Asking

in the way you did

makes a heck of a lot of sense if you're scum with a secret word, and afraid that other people might not have one - testing the waters to see what comes up.

I believe, although WIFOM, looking at kills presents a wonderful way to generate suspicions.

So if I understand correctly, you agree with me that examining who was killed can be cautiously useful data?

In other news, IH still needs to die.

[Zindaras]

I don't think the argument concludes, "Y must be scum", it usually goes "Y

might be

scum", and the WIFOM is debatable. If there's demonstrable evidence to suggest that the nightkill is not prompted by powerrole hunting, it's perfectly reasonable to consider why the person killed was killed,

since it can give clues as to who the scum are

. Though the reliability of it is far from certain, I'm not sure why you would want to deny that tool, nor am I convinced of your argument re: scumminess of those who make the arguments.

How are you going to have demonstrable evidence that the nightkill wasn't motivated by powerrole hunting? And even if we do have that evidence, it doesn't mean that the nightkill is necessarily motivated by a desire to kill someone who is suspicious of scum.

We don't know what motivates the scum to kill who they kill. As I said before, barring extreme cases, night kills are extremely limited forms of information. Case in point: Newbie 321. I killed CDB on Night 1 because he was the only one who'd be able to also see that Stoofer was a Doc (which I had seen). Everyone else thought it was because the killer was an idiot. (which, maybe, I am, but that's another issue entirely)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So because the evidence might lead you astray, you should just discard it outright?

Nightkill analysis isn't the most useful line of inquiry, but I certainly wouldn't call it useless. Whenever I'm scum, I certainly do prefer to kill people who are suspicious of me, 'cause the town totally lets me get away with it and because it isn't all that easy to interpret.

[Mgm]

Absolutely not. I just said that I had a secret word and I used it. I didn't notice anything at all in regards to it.

I might've used my secret word; I might not have. Either way, I'm positive I didn't specify which of the two it is yet.

That's the thing - I think you're lying about your reasoning for bringing up the secret word. I agree I think you have a secret word. Was I unclear on that point? Asking

in the way you did

makes a heck of a lot of sense if you're scum with a secret word, and afraid that other people might not have one - testing the waters to see what comes up.

If that's true, why test the waters? Keeping his mouth shut would be by far the safer option if he didn't know it was safe to talk about it. What if scum was the only one with secret words? Asking about it would make it suicide.

[Zindaras]

It's not "might", it's "will very likely". If you make a really good case for the nightkill being relevant, sure, go ahead. As I said, extreme cases. But, to get this back to relevant issues, this time it was most certainly not an extreme or a relevant case.

[Thesp]

So because the evidence might lead you astray, you should just discard it outright?

Nightkill analysis isn't the most useful line of inquiry, but I certainly wouldn't call it useless. Whenever I'm scum, I certainly do prefer to kill people who are suspicious of me, 'cause the town totally lets me get away with it and because it isn't all that easy to interpret.

QFT.

That's the thing - I think you're lying about your reasoning for bringing up the secret word. I agree I think you have a secret word. Was I unclear on that point? Asking

in the way you did

makes a heck of a lot of sense if you're scum with a secret word, and afraid that other people might not have one - testing the waters to see what comes up.

If that's true, why test the waters? Keeping his mouth shut would be by far the safer option if he didn't know it was safe to talk about it. What if scum was the only one with secret words? Asking about it would make it suicide.

I can imagine some outs he'd have by asking the question, and I would suspect there'd be natural curiosity. I think he was worried about scum being the only ones with secret words - if everyone looked at him quizzically, it'd be easy to fabricate a reason he knows about secret words(for instance, having a role which has knowledge of scum having secret words - after all, DB didn't say

he

had a secret word when he first asked about it). It makes a heck of a lot of sense to me.

[Tamuz]

Just FYI in reference to a question that was posted earlier.

I didn't have a secret word in verbose. I don't remember if scum did, but I certainly didn't and that was as a more-or-less survivor/deceiver role.

[VitaminR]

Nightkill analysis isn't the most useful line of inquiry, but I certainly wouldn't call it useless. Whenever I'm scum, I certainly do prefer to kill people who are suspicious of me, 'cause the town totally lets me get away with it and because it isn't all that easy to interpret.

I don't know, I personally use a mixture of both. Sometimes I make a WIFOM kill and sometimes I don't. Regardless, for Night 1 it is incredibly difficult to form an accurate picture of what might be involved in the scum discussion. We have no information about the type of scum we're dealing with, for instance.

[LoudmouthLee]

Just FYI in reference to a question that was posted earlier.

I didn't have a secret word in verbose. I don't remember if scum did, but I certainly didn't and that was as a more-or-less survivor/deceiver role.

not a secret word, but a posting restriction.

[Mr. Grey]

Adele has not posted in over 72 hours, and will be replaced as soon as a replacement is found.

[Dani Banani]

@LmL,
that's what i meant... you used it & claimed so... i thought Mgm had said he had used his as well...

@Thesp,
i really don't think there's anymore i can say about the subject w/o giving away my secret word... you think i'm scum based on the way i decided to 'test the waters', and i think you're a lyncher based on the way you're chasing after me... my explanation is more plausible than your hare-brained hypothesis, IMO...

[IH]

If anyone has an explanation for why Cubsfan lied (which could've resulted in a really bad counterclaim), I'm all ears. Also, I'm pretty sure that I'm not going to lynch LML today.

Curious.

MGM isn't lynching LML today, presumably because of Cubsfans action, yet he also brings up about Cubsfan lying.

It does bring something interesting to mind though. There was no cubsfan counterclaim! I would personally be wary of a count of monte cristo claim after this.

Vote: Logicticus, xyzzy, Skruffs, VitaminR, [Tamuz, IH, Adele, Thesp, Talitha, PookyTheMagicalBear, Dani Banani, foolinc], Gaspar, No lynch, [Zindaras, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix], LoudmouthLee, Mgm.

Would you mind explaining this list at the beginning of the day MGM?

Somebody blocked me. That pisses me off.

I'm personally unsure why you would bring this up at the beginning of day 2.

Just for the sake of defending myself before this even comes up:

I don't think Cubs's PM says what happens if they aren't scum. His operative word here was guess. I didn't die, so that's a positive.

I continue to dislike this as well. One of the reasons I continue to be suspicious of LML. He brings it up before anyone even mentions it, effectively cutting off all inquiries of him.

Why wouldn't that power be attributed to scum? Scum who have one or two daykills at their disposal - which a duel basically is - are rare, but it's not unheard of. The only thing that duel proved is that he had the power to initiate one, not that the results would be as he said they would be (kill a scum, guess: not kill an innocent).

Also, if he was so obviously town, there were plenty of people who could've unvoted after the claim. If someone claims the main character you either believe them or you don't.

Whats funny is that MGM was more likely to believe LML before Cubs, and LML's claim was much less convincing than LML. Not only that, MGM didn't even reply to the claim until after the duel had happened. So the claim and power, which was proven, was a package deal.

MGM wasn't concerned at all with what that meant though, he wasted time and posts by asking Cubs why he targetted LML.

I wouldn't fault MGM if there had actually been results from the duel, but there was none, and neither player died, which indicated that the player was probably town, since if it was scum, it would have mostlikely been an SK, and that would have been it's only kill more than likely.

Xyzzy's role-Barbara Morgan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Morgan

Wikipedia says that she was an astronaut from Fresno. Just born in fresno. Nothing from the book at all about her I believe.

I continue to like my theory about characters from the book being scum.

VitR's post 640 is full of loss.

I continue to generally dislike MGM's play....

LML, I still see no reason why you felt the need to completely outline a claim, since all confirmed innocents seem to have just been from Fresno, and not necessarily in the book.

If I get time I will try to do a full recap of day 1. This was just a little bit of more indepth towards the beginning of day 2 up until my first content filled post.

For the moment I feel comfortable with this vote I believe. It will probably change after I go over day 1 again, and start to get a more comfortable feel. LML is staying off until I decide the validity of my own arguments against him.

Vote:MGM

VitR, Logictus

[Mr. Grey]

MrBuddyLee replaces Adele.

[VitaminR]

IH, this?

Anyways, Skruffs are we really to believe you got roleblocked, or are you just scum seeing how far you can yank us along on your RC.

vote: MGM

, Skruffs

This is bad.

I actually believe MGM. It seems way too obvious a thing anyway. Something about foolinc's recent comment on that strikes me as off.

Vote: Adele

, Tamuz, foolinc

What is so bad about that? Tamuz was reaching there and I don't think MGM is scum.

MrBuddyLee, woo!

Welcome to the game. I think you are scum.

[Mgm]

If anyone has an explanation for why Cubsfan lied (which could've resulted in a really bad counterclaim), I'm all ears. Also, I'm pretty sure that I'm not going to lynch LML today.

Curious.

MGM isn't lynching LML today, presumably because of Cubsfans action, yet he also brings up about Cubsfan lying.

It does bring something interesting to mind though. There was no cubsfan counterclaim! I would personally be wary of a count of monte cristo claim after this.

I'm not lynching LML today because I believe his claim. If he doesn't find the townie he's looking for within a reasonable amount of time I'm going to reconsider, but right now the outcome of the duel suggests he's town.

Vote: Logicticus, xyzzy, Skruffs, VitaminR, [Tamuz, IH, Adele, Thesp, Talitha, PookyTheMagicalBear, Dani Banani, foolinc], Gaspar, No lynch, [Zindaras, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix], LoudmouthLee, Mgm.

Would you mind explaining this list at the beginning of the day MGM?

I carried it over from yesterday and scrapped the dead players off the list to make voting today easier.

Whats funny is that MGM was more likely to believe LML before Cubs, and LML's claim was much less convincing than LML.

I already said I had a theory Counts were scum. It's not that much different from you believing all book characters are scum. Why should my suggestion be any less likely?

Not only that, MGM didn't even reply to the claim until after the duel had happened. So the claim and power, which was proven, was a package deal.

Do I really have to repeat this? You can prove someone is a roleblocker, but that won't say anything about their alignment. The same goes for killing. The only good reason, which I already conceded to: he ensured scum would die if targetted. I just happened to miss that bit in the bigger picture and no one bothered to point it out until recently.

MGM wasn't concerned at all with what that meant though, he wasted time and posts by asking Cubs why he targetted LML.

Asking why someone targetted someone is not wasting time. It's a basic part of mafia.

I wouldn't fault MGM if there had actually been results from the duel, but there was none, and neither player died, which indicated that

the player

was probably town, since if

it

was scum, it would have mostlikely been an SK, and that would have been

it's

only kill more than likely.

It would really help if you use names here instead of unclear pronouns. The fact that the duel didn't result in any deaths was what I found suspicious.

Xyzzy's role-Barbara Morgan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Morgan

Wikipedia says that she was an astronaut from Fresno. Just born in fresno. Nothing from the book at all about her I believe.

I continue to like my theory about characters from the book being scum.

You're going to be so disappointed.

[MrBuddyLee]

You're going to be so disappointed(, IH).

This sounds like you think/know he's town.

Hey guys, I've been skimming this game hoping I'd be able to replace in. Great list of players. I'll buckle down and hand yall some scum asap--let me grab a bagel and coffee and get down to it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Psst, MBL, Mgm has claimed to be a character from the book. So, um, he should (pretend to) know he's town.

[Dragon Phoenix]

Not much happening - weekend after all - no incentive to change my vote. I expect to have time again on Tuesday; busy Monday with meetings and business dinner.