Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Oman]

Vollkan, lets assume you're right. Orig is a vig.

Now: Why did he kill carrotcake?

[shaft.ed]

Nice to see some more thought going on and less jumping to votes.

Vollkan, lets assume you're right. Orig is a vig.

Now: Why did he kill carrotcake?

Why did he kill anybody? I'm still mad about this (if he is the vig).

Our possible scenarios as I see them are as follows:
1) AlyG = Tracker; Orig = Vig: To me, the massive inconsistencies in their behaviours (which we have all noted) makes this seem unlikely.
2) AlyG = Tracker; Orig = Scum (Maf/SK): Very possible. There were only 2 kills yerstday so maybe Orig figured he would have to claim something. Doc, Cop or RB could risk a counter so vig possibly seemed safe, seeing as AlyG, the scummiest person, was not NKed. By that, I mean that vig probably seemed a safe claim to scum-Orig because AlyG, who was such obvious scum, was not NKed. If there was a vig, the vig would likely have targeted AlyG.
3) AlyG = Scum; Orig = Vig: I cannot see scum taking this particular gambit. It would be suicide to claim tracker and then randomly call someone out.
4) AlyG = Mafia; Orig = Mafia: I want this to be true. It would make so much sense given their behaviour, but it is impossible to substantiate without a counter-claim.

I don't know how exotic this would be, but we can't be 100% sure of AlyG's alignment. It's mildly possible that AlyG is a scum tracker and orig is a town vig. So if orig is eventually cleared, I wouldn't let my guard down to AlyG completely. Do realize this is a far outish scenario.

I'm surprised that we haven't had a counterclaim by now. I think this at least points out that either A) orig is in fact the vig or B) we don't have a vig in game. Tracker's are a bit more rare so I believe AlyG's claim, only way he is lying is if him and orig are scum partners. But there is absolutely NO need for them to run such a gambit. The scum were sitting pretty after the first round of death's. Also the odds of either of them being powerroles went up considerably when the first three out of the game came up vanilla townie's.

So from where I am sitting. I am 99% sure AlyG is in fact a tracker, maybe 85-90% sure he is town aligned.

I'm leaning towards believing originality. I really thought AlyG's original post was very scummy and I think after three other people came out against him, originality could have run a gambit in favor of taking down AlyG. Claiming vig (while more convenient in the long run) would basically confirm AlyG as the town tracker opening him up for possible Doc protections from the town and the chance to hit more scum at night. I don't see why he wouldn't bite on the chance to take down AlyG. Also as has been pointed out by vollkan and Oman, originality has basically signed himself up for a NK with his claim either way.

Here are my scenarios I will assume that we don't have any other vig than the one that originality has claimed since there is no counterclaim:

If Orig is Mafia:

6:2:1

: A SK must exist to account for second NK. Would it be reasonable here to assume the SK would target orig in the night? If so lynching him is a possible waste opening up the SK to kill a likely townie instead. Lynching someone else would give us information to work from tommorow. If SK kills orig and he is scum we are left with 4:1:1 in wcs (75%), 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK(13%), 5:0:1 if we lynch the other scum (13%). If SK kills town and we don't lynch orig we are left with 3:2:1 in wcs (pretty much over, 75%), or 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (13%) and again 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK (13%). This set-up is very dependent on SK actions.

Totals for 6:2:1 63% town advantage, 38% likely town loss (3:2:1)

5:3:1

: If the SK kills orig at night we are left with 3:2:1 in worst case scenario(63%), 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (25%), and 4:3:0 (LYLO) if we hit the SK (13%). If the SK kills town and we don't go for orig we're at 2:3:1 in wcs (63%), 3:2:1 if we hit scum (25%) and again 4:3:0 if we hit the SK (13%).

Totals for 5:3:1 13% town advantage, 13% LYLO, 44% likely town loss (3:2:1), 32% auto-loss (2:3:1)

So I'm estimating our odds break down to the following if orig is scum and we let him live today (calculated weighting SK actions 50/50 and 2 vs 3 scum 50/50):
Town advantage (not LYLO): 38%
LYLO: 10%
Town pretty much lost (3:2:1): 36%
Town Auto loss (2:3:1): 16%

If Orig is the Vig:

6:3

There's no SK so the math on this is a bit easier. If orig is the vig and we don't lynch him today we will have 4:3 tommorow if we mislynch (63%) or 5:2 tommorow if we hit scum (38%). This is assuming he doesn't shoot. If he mis-shoots after a mislynch it's game over (

HINT HINT if you are the vig

), if he mis-shoots after a mafia lynch it's 4:2 tommorow. Of course hitting the target after lynching scum would be the best but odds are quite low.
So in sum this leaves us at (assuming no shots):
Town advantage: 38%
LYLO: 63% <-- best case scenario for ANY mislynch today really

If Orig is the SK:

6:2:1

If orig is the SK I think it is very safe to assume that he will be NK'd by the mafia tonight. I will make my following calculations based on this assumption. If we let orig live and the is the SK we have a 75% chance of mislynching town and a 25% chance of lynching scum. Orig would also get a NK which would then have ~ same odds dependent on who was lynched. End result is wcs 2 townies and Sk killed 4:2:0 (LYLO 54%), 1 scum 1 townie killed 5:1:0 (42%), 2 scum killed 6:0:0 (4%).

Town win: 4%, Town advantage: 42%, LYLO: 54%

5:3:1

Again assuming that orig is the vig and is going to be NK'd by mafia but this time there are more mafia. If we don't lynch orig and he is NK'd we will end up with a 63% chance of a mislynch and a 38% chance of hitting scum. Final numbers for the next day will depend on orig's night actions but will leave us with 3:3:0 if two townies are killed (town loss, 36%), 4:2:0 if 1 scum and 1 townie are killed (LYLO, 54%) and 5:1:0 if we lynch scum and orig hits scum (9%).

Town advantage: 9%, LYLO: 54%, town loss: 36%

So weighting the two options for 2 vs 3 scum as equally likely we end up with:
Town win: 2%
Town advantage: 26%
LYLO: 54%
Town Loss: 18%

[shaft.ed]

Oh and if orig is the vig and we lynch him today we are sent into LYLO with our tracker outed.

[Oman]

Thats all well and good Shaft.ed, but whats your conclusion? What do YOU suggest?

[shaft.ed]

Actually that post was more for me to get some numbers available to mull over.

mulls

I'm not certain on this yet. I'm thinking letting orig live and having the crossfire sort it out is our best bet, but it's also a gamble, and I don't want to force the town to take a gamble that I am OK with.

One thing I do want to posit to everyone is please don't throw your votes around. We may be in a 5:3:1 situation where mafia can endgame with a mislynch. A quicklynch wouldn't be a poor place in this scenario.

continues mulling

[/i]

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP play not place above

[dybeck]

If Orig is scum, the setup is 6:3:1. A town lynch today leaves us at 5:3:1.

Two town kills overnight leave us at 3:3:1 and we've basically lost this game.

We need to entertain this possibility, especially in light of the fact that originality was forced into his claim, and it simply doesn't hold water.

Originality, I'm still waiting for you to point out one thing that was remotely scummy about carrotcake yesterday please.

[Oman]

I think letting a killing role live the night will only lead to pain. Vollkan's done the math, read up on that.

[shaft.ed]

Allright one other thing. I'm a wee bit unhappy that most of the decisions seem to be getting made by us four common posters. I don't know why AlyG hasn't chimed in since originality's claim and I wish originality would add a bit more given his "insight" since his claim. Also Dr. BS is off the map even though he's posted in the discussion forum for advice on adding content. Elias is away till Sunday. And Lucienne seems to get about one meaty post a day so I hope that will come in soon.

[shaft.ed]

I think letting a killing role live the night will only lead to pain. Vollkan's done the math, read up on that.

I'm not quite sure though. If it's a claimed killing role this could lead to crossfire amongst warring factions. Don't know what others take is on running that gambit.

[Lucienne]

To all:

I'm afraid there is a family emergency that has arisen, and I'll need to fly off tomorrow. I'll try and get access during the following week, but if not it could be Monday October 1 before I can post anything.

Hope this isn't going to be too big a problem. I'd rather not be replaced if that is okay.

[shaft.ed]

And 'strangulation' - does this sound like the hallmark of the vig?

Remember we're on a plane. Guns can't get on planes, and they're bad things to shoot off. I wouldn't weight this either way.

[vollkan]

I'm not certain on this yet. I'm thinking letting orig live and having the crossfire sort it out is our best bet, but it's also a gamble, and I don't want to force the town to take a gamble that I am OK with.

One thing I do want to posit to everyone is please don't throw your votes around. We may be in a 5:3:1 situation where mafia can endgame with a mislynch. A quicklynch wouldn't be a poor place in this scenario.

I agree entirely.

I think letting a killing role live the night will only lead to pain. Vollkan's done the math, read up on that.

It's a gambit, no doubt about that. Let's not forget, though, that Orig could easily have claimed weak doctor or something if he was the SK/mafia and did not want to expose himself to NK risk. The fact that has has claimed vig, a role likely to get NKed, points to him being genuine.

As such, I think our situation is 6:3 more likely than one of 6:2:1 or 5:3:1. I really don't think we should be killing Orig today.

Tracker's are a bit more rare so I believe AlyG's claim, only way he is lying is if him and orig are scum partners. But there is absolutely NO need for them to run such a gambit. The scum were sitting pretty after the first round of death's. Also the odds of either of them being powerroles went up considerably when the first three out of the game came up vanilla townie's.

This is something I thought of and that played a part in my unvote.

Basically, all in all, I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If this is a SK-game, then there is a good chance of cross-fire. If it is not a SK-game, lynching Orig would be stupid and unproductive.

Unvote

.

The question is, therefore, we we go now. If we aren't lynching Orig, I think that means it would be nonsensical to lynch AlyG (I don't believe there is a scum tracker) Oh, and shaft.ed seems very pro-town to me; he isn't even under consideration as a lynchee by me at this stage.

Therefore, my pool of possible scum is:
Elias_the_thief
Oman
Dr. Blackstrike
Lucienne
dybeck

Obviously, the rest of you have to include me on your list and the innocent among you can exclude yourselves.

I look at that list and realise that 3/5 of those people are scum, if everything holds true about AlyG and Orig.

Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440. I am now sure that this stance is anti-town, but I myself held it just yesterday until I realised how stupid it is. I have my eye on them, particularly Dybeck given all the previous stuff.

[Streeflo]

To all:

I'm afraid there is a family emergency that has arisen, and I'll need to fly off tomorrow. I'll try and get access during the following week, but if not it could be Monday October 1 before I can post anything.

Hope this isn't going to be too big a problem. I'd rather not be replaced if that is okay.

I won't find a replacement unless the majority of players ask for one.

[Streeflo]

Day 2, Votecount #14!

originality (2) - dybeck, Oman
dybeck (1) - originality

Not voting: Everyone else

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[AlyG]

So you guys want me to track dybeck during the night?

[shaft.ed]

I'm pretty much on the same page as vollkan. And I'm advocating a slow down to the voting once again. I'd say putting someone at L-2 without consent is suspicious given the game conditions. Would really like to hear more participation.

So you guys want me to track dybeck during the night?

I really don't want you to be guided in any way. The more the mafia know what's going on the more they can prepare for it. It's not out of the question that they have a roleblocker either. Just do what you think is best.


I Personally don't have a problem with Lucienne right now. Best of luck with your family matters.
To all I'm LA over the weekends, please don't do anything crazy guys.

[vollkan]

I really don't want you to be guided in any way. The more the mafia know what's going on the more they can prepare for it. It's not out of the question that they have a roleblocker either. Just do what you think is best.

Agreed. Besides, the way things are going a Dybeck lynch is not completely unlikely.

The best advice I can give you is: Think of who Originality would choose and then do the complete opposite.

And I don't want Lucienne replaced.

[dybeck]

So... originality... did you think of a reason why you targeted our most pro-town player yet?

[vollkan]

Dybeck, he has already explained why:

As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

It basically looks like a OMGUS kill.

[Oman]

Which is sooooo pro-town!!

I'm not going to follow you on this one vollkan, I think orig is an SK.

[vollkan]

Which is sooooo pro-town!!

I'm not going to follow you on this one vollkan, I think orig is an SK.

Okay, let's think. There are a few reasons supporting him being SK:
1) The anti-townness of his kill
2) The strangling thing
3) The fact that he probably reasoned vig was a safe claim since nobody had killed AlyG during the night.

There is a good argument for Orig being the SK, BUT if he is the vig, we are really hurting ourselves by lynching him.

[vollkan]

Add:

However, there is one fact which kind of defeats the whole SK theory: Orig claimed VIG.

If Orig is SK, why the hell would he claim the one pro-town role which we can be almost certain that the mafia will prioritise over all others.

I know that if I were a SK in Orig's position, I would have claimed weak doc or RB or something, NOT Vig.

Hence, my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.

[Oman]

As mafia I do not prioritise vig, they often kill townies N1-2-3.

Regardless:

If he claimed cop he'd likely get counterclaimed
If he claimed doc we'd know he's lying
If he claimed RB he'd likely be counterclaimed.

Plus if he was the SK he would have known vig was 100% guarenteed safe claim(who puts and SK a vig AND a scumgroup in a game)

[AlyG]

AlyG: Why did you wait to out originality and what prompted you to claim?
Why did you not either claim immediately or at least push for an originality lynch?
Why did you take such a defensive stance in your claiming post?

1. I already explained this in my claiming post. I waited because i thought i may be able to get him lynched without giving away my identity. But i eventually decided against it. Which is why i claimed.

2. I didn't push for an orig lynch straight away because i thought it may look like i know something about him like his role if i immediately went for him. So i was originally going to bide my time and let the game run a bit before putting my case against him.

3. I don't really belive i was defensive.

This was probably pretty pointless it being 2 pages ago but anyway.