Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[Glork]

Feh. I've neglected this game. Still thinking that Yos is probably protown. Somewhat unsure of TCS.


I realize that there are probably some posts/points that I need to address, but I probably won't get to them until Friday.

[Glork]

EBWOP: Also, I'd *really* like to hear from CtD soon. I know that he's reliable enough to show up sooner or later (and I certainly don't want to replace another player who has read half the thread or something), but I'm growing impatient.

[MrBuddyLee]

We could get rolling a lot quicker if he'd just agree to blindly follow your lead.

[Kinetic]

I agree MBL. About time you understood. Now vote for yourself and we could get with the Glorking.

[MrBuddyLee]

Got a problem with your suspicions, ace. Which leads me to believe you're more likely scum than previously thought.

You think I'm the godfather. You think TCS is scum. But he can't be the goon, so you're going to have to revisit your analysis. How exactly did you arrive at a worldview where both TCS and MBL were the godfather? Almost looks like you're inventing suspicions without actually trying to evaluate relationships and possibilities.

[Yosarian2]

EDIT: Oh yea, investigated innocent. This is why we don't post 5 minutes after waking up, kids.

Is it just me, or does TCS still believe that being investigated innocent is a complete get out of jail free card even though 2/3 scum aren't "guilty"?

Yosarian is guilty of this as well, but at least he backed it up with a decent reason, that killing a non-confirmed will narrow down the pool of possible goons. This is true, but I don't feel that this is a very good strategy, and will probably be less accurate than regular hunting.

I think TCS especially, but also Yos, are clinging to their results a bit too desperately.

Well, there's more pay-off from lynching someone who could theoretically be all three roles; more info that way either way, and better odds. However, I wouldn't necessarally have a problem lynching someone who could be two out of the three; the only time I start to really wonder if it's a good idea is if we're talking about someone who could only be one out of the three, like InHim's replacement, who could be Godfather, but couldn't be a Goon or a SK, because the odds of finding scum are low, and because if we do find the Godfather somewhere else he basically becomes a confirmed innocent.

[Kinetic]

Correction:

My suspicions have been evaluated, that much I feel is my strongest attribute in this game (this game being mafia). However I don't always relate everything, including my changing opinion, very well. That being said, I've already answered your questions to the degree I'm comfortable with. I understand what you're trying to do, and I'm not going to play that game. Last time I tried to play that game you tried to push a mis-lynch against me. I think its possible that you're the godfather, but I also think its not unlike you to be a goon or even possibly the SK. I no longer think you and BT are on the same team though, and that was my main motivation for thinking you might be the godfather over just a normal goon.

Also, my suspicions of TCS are not really linked to you. I have presented what I feel about him, and I never said I think he's the godfather. I think he might be the godfather or SK, but I'm not sure enough at this time to vote for him. That's why my vote is on you, and not him. Since I think its more likely that you are one of those two positions I think lynching you is a good play and from what I find out with that lynch it will allow me to put more of TCS's behavior into perspective.

[Yosarian2]

I've thought you were a likely SK for a very long time.

Have you made that case before today? Why not?

Well, this was where I started wondering about you:

Um...I think lynching a SK on day 1 is a great thing; greatly decreases the number of anti-town nightkills with means the town has more lynches over the course of the game and the pro-town roles get more chances to act, and it of course also increases the town's odds of winning by eliminating the chances of a SK win. I don't think I've ever seen someone say "we shouldn't lynch X day 1 because he might be a SK" before...

Actually, I disagree with you there; generally, if a good SK thinks he has an idea who the scum is, he'll try to lynch them during the day (when it'll make him look better) while trying to get rid of pro-town threats to him at night.

In any case, even if one were to accept the idea that SK's are as much a threat to the mafia as they are to the town, it would still be a good idea to get rid of a SK ASAP, just because SK's do sometimes win games, even large ones.

Besides, the whole idea that you don't want to lynch him because he might be a SK just seems bizzare to me. It's like saying "Oh, better not lynch him, he might be a surivor". Anyone who's win condition isn't pro-town is a GREAT day 1 lynch.

Could you explain why you think he's a likely SK?

I first started to suspect you, and ask you questions, way back duing day 1, when you were trying to plant the idea in everyone's head that the SK was basically a pro-town role who should be kept alive for a while. Which, I should note, is also how the SK has been playing. Your play makes perfect sense as a SK, if you're one of those people who basically plays SK like a vig with the goal of helping the town get rid of the mafia.
Then you managed to mostly vanish off the radar by lurking for a while.

I was actually quite surprised, reading back over my posts, to find that I actually hadn't mentioned that early on. I don't usually bother specifically SK hunting early on, but still, I really thought I had at least expressed that suspicion of you.

And obviously scum disagree with you or else they'd have taken a shot at me by now. (Did they think Glork was SK or cop when they shot at him?)

In fact, scum would probably rather lynch the SK than me right now, which is one reason why my wagon's not rocketing into the stratosphere. (Unless scum's also under heavy heat in which case they'd probably take me as a last resort.) If I'm the obvious SK, maybe you should look back and see who tried to get me lynched D1-D3--they're possible mafiates. The SK would have probably enjoyed the cover I provided them, as evidenced by the fact they've been setting me up unsubtly with their nightkills.

...that's pretty terrible logic there. Even if you're right and the scum don't think you're the SK, that dosn't prove anything, perhaps it just means you've sucessfully tricked the scum. And I'm not sure why you seem so convinced that the scum want the SK dead at this point more then they want good guys dead; that's not nearly as clear an issue as you make it out to be, numerically speaking.

I'm astounded that a few of you people really think an SK would play the way I have from D1.

Still riding that WIFOM defense pretty hard, huh?

It's similar to the fact that no one bothered to ask why Guardian would RETRACT his doc claim yesterday instead of riding it out overnight... the easy answer is that he would have stuck with the claim as scum.

You clearly didn't read yesterday very clearly, as we spent some time discussing the issue. Actually, Guardian himself answered this. He said that he thought he had figured out who the other doc was; if he was scum and he had figured out who the other doc was, he would want to quickly retract his claim before the counterclaim happened.

Seriously, every time you try to convince us that we were all morons for lynching Guardian after he lied abut being the doc and that you would have instantly figured out he was just a townie acting in the most anti-town way I've seen in a while, it makes you look less credible to me. If you're town, I'd expect you to have done the exact same thing if you had been around then. The fact that you apparently either don't see that, or are just ignoring it so you can try to use that mislynch to make me look bad, really makes me have trouble seeing you as a rational pro-town person.

The reason I took fire from D1 like this is because I figured it'd draw a scum kill, and if not, no townie would be dense enough to think that conversing openly with and complimenting the SK would be a survivalist strategy.

...so, you thought the scum would think you were SK and kill you, but that no townie would think you were the SK? Unless you have some reason to think that the scum are dumb, that dosn't make a lot of sense.

It eliminates the possibility that Glork's mafia. It doesn't significantly change the possibility that he's the SK.

Well, lowers the chances of him being mafia at least, yeah.

But for whatever reason you seem to have essentially cleared Glork as SK. Here's your reasoning:

I can't see a SK Glork doing what Glork did day 2, which was sticking his neck out to defend inHim while attacking Shteven at the same time, when they were both acting in similar ways; at the time, that made me suspect Glork a bit of possibly being Mafia, but a SK, especally one already getting some negitive attention from some quarters, would have no reason to act like that; too risky, too loud, too high profile.

So your case against me as SK is that I've been risky, loud and high profile about being the SK, and your case that Glork's NOT the SK is that he's been to risky, loud and high profile?

So sketchy.

Um, I'm not going to rule say "X isn't the SK because he's been loudly and in a high profile way acting like a SK", that would be dumb. However, that action by Glork (defending InHim in that wierd way in that situation) makes sense if Glork's mafia with InHim (I suspected him of being mafia at the time, if you remember), makes sense if Glork is a cop with an innocent on InHim, but dosn't make sense if Glork's the SK.

I agree that MBL's sarc vote makes it less likely he's mafia

Well, right. Any time someone helps lynch a scum, it inherently makes it somewhat less likely they're mafia. I don't see what's wrong with saying that, and then wanting to go back and re-read to narrow down the odds of you possibly bussing a little more. There's no contradiction there, nor is that any evidecne of "testing the waters" or "being a sheep".

Weak sauce. Appeasement. Kowtowing. You thought I was unlikely mafia and then Glork put the squeeze on you. Did you even bother to read Face to Face to see if my Sarc vote here and my CDB vote there were at all similar or did you just swallow Glork's faulty analysis whole?

Such utter bullshit. And no, like I said earlier, I'm not going to go read an entire other mafia game for some minor metagame thing I don't really care about, nor did Glork's post have any real influince on my thoughts, beyond making me want to go back and re-read. Yes, when a 95% confirmed pro-town person who's got a reputation of being a good scumhunter seems to think it's likely that X bussed Y, I'll go back and re-read, but that hardly makes me a "sheep" or says that I'm "appeasing" or "kowtowning" or any of that crap you're spouting.

This post from a week or so ago really bothered me. You guys offed Guardian in SIX DAYS. Not TEN DAYS, not TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

SIX DAYS.

Your post is apologist to the extreme and if you're town you should be ashamed of it because you were apologizing for mafia's and the SK's rush to lynch an innocent without getting everyone on the record about the decision.

fake edit:

SIX DAYS

He lied about being the doc in order to stop himself from being lynched, and then admitted he lied after being semi-counterclaimed. It shouldn't have taken 6 days to lynch him after that point, he should have been dead in 6 hours. The fact that it took 6 days just shows that people at mafiascum have gotten much to slow and hesitant about lynching people even when the choice is incredibly obveous.

By the way, that "Oh, you're being sooo defensive about Guardian" thing is another scumtell on your part; attacking someone about X, and then when they respond, saying they're being over-defensive about X, is a classic scum trick to get someone lynched.

And no, I didn't really feel like we needed to hear from everyone before we lynched him; if he had been scum, he was so obveously doomed that I'd expect his scumbuddies to vote for him just as fast as anyone else, I really didn't feel like we'd get any more info by waiting.

[LoudmouthLee]

CTD assured me that there was a personal reason keeping him away from the computer. He did tell me he would post last night, though...

Him getting into the swing of things is the only think holding back a 2 week deadline being imposed.

[MrBuddyLee]

It shouldn't have taken 6 days to lynch him after that point, he should have been dead in 6 hours. The fact that it took 6 days just shows that people at mafiascum have gotten much to slow and hesitant about lynching people even when the choice is incredibly obveous.

This is so far from the truth, it's not even funny. A lynch isn't purely about lynching the bad guy, it's about gaining information for the next lynch and potential upcoming night actions. I don't know why you'd intentionally miss out on several data points by rushing a lynch like you did yesterday, but it's clear you're going to be stubborn about your correctness in the matter, so I'll drop it.

Still riding that WIFOM defense pretty hard, huh?

It's a common sense defense, but you're welcome to call it pure WIFOM if it floats your boat. You basically said I haven't played a survivalist strategy, which is correct, and then you said that an SK doesn't take big risks, which is correct, and then you deny that 1+2=3. Instead you decide that what makes the MOST sense here is that I decided from the start of this game to play 100% the opposite of the way an SK should play. And hope against hope that mafia, lynchers or vig NEVER decided, in fifteen kill opportunities, that it'd be worth it to take a shot at me instead of anyone else.

If I'm not the SK, who is, Yos?

[MrBuddyLee]

That being said, I've already answered your questions to the degree I'm comfortable with. I understand what you're trying to do

1) No, you clearly don't understand what I'm trying to do. I'm town trying to get a read on you and understand your actions, and you're either IGNORING that possibility or you KNOW I'm not scum and you're playing dumb.

Youi won't last very long around here with a modus operandi of refusing to answer questions when you even remotely think the asker may be scum. I don't policy lynch in general, but if I were to ever policy lynch, it'd be nitwits who refuse to play the game. Don't be one of those.

2) Why are you uncomfortable about answering questions from me? All you have to do is speak the truth and everyone should see that even if you misspeak once in a while. (Well, some people might be stubborn like Yos re: Guardian and follow through on "obvious scumtells" you make, but most of us will actually take your remarks in context of your skill level.)

Generally speaking, honest play reeks of township, so if you're town, don't be so afraid of making mistakes in your defense. Go bomber.

[Yosarian2]

This is so far from the truth, it's not even funny. A lynch isn't purely about lynching the bad guy, it's about gaining information for the next lynch and potential upcoming night actions. I don't know why you'd intentionally miss out on several data points by rushing a lynch like you did yesterday, but it's clear you're going to be stubborn about your correctness in the matter, so I'll drop it.

If Guardian was scum, do you really think his scum mates would have defended him after he came out and admitted he was lying about being the doc? The way people treated him up until that point would certanly be useful information, but how much more information do you think we could have gotten after that came out?

You basically said I haven't played a survivalist strategy, which is correct, and then you said that an SK doesn't take big risks, which is correct, and then you deny that 1+2=3. Instead you decide that what makes the MOST sense here is that I decided from the start of this game to play 100% the opposite of the way an SK should play. And hope against hope that mafia, lynchers or vig NEVER decided, in fifteen kill opportunities, that it'd be worth it to take a shot at me instead of anyone else.

The thing is, playing it really low profile and trying not to be noticed at all dosn't really work as a sucessful SK stratagy. It's not bad as a mafia goon stratagy, because playing it low profile is likely to help you become one of the last 8 or 9 people left if no one notices you're doing it, but for the SK to win you have to make it all the way to the end and survive, and to do that you have to be more then low profile, you have to have some way to survive the part of the game when the town starts lynching off all the low profile people in a process of elimination (as usually happens towards the end of the game). I've been a sucessful SK a few times, and I've never done it by just staying low profile and hoping to not get noticed; you've got to do something else as well to make you a poor end-game lynch suspect, and you've got to do it right from the start.

So, no, I don't necessarally think that you're play is necessarally inconsistant with logical SK play; frankly, in order to have any chance win as a SK in a large game you've usually got to take some pretty big risks, and I could very easily see your day 1 play as an intentional plan to distance yourself from the role and discourage other people from SK hunting right from the start. You're right, it would be risky, but hey, trying to actually win as the SK requires some pretty big risks.

If I'm not the SK, who is, Yos?

(shrug) SK play is so varied, it could in theory be almost anyone at this point; SK is one of the hardest roles to hunt for intentionally. I've explained why I don't think it's Glork or Inhim's replacement; other then that, it's hard to say.

[CrashTextDummie]

I've been ill, which prevented me from using the computer (much less play mafia) for the past week, which obviously pushed back my schedule for this game.

I will post the first part of my analysis within 24 hours.

My apologies.

[Shteven]

In order for me to accept the claim that we should lynch non-investigated players simply because there are three possible roles instead of two, I'd have to also accept that the town's read is no better than a die roll. Well, there's certainly a lot of room for error, but I'd certainly hope we can do better than random selection. And if my selection falls on a non-goon, that's just fine by me.

What would you do if Glork isn't a cop?

[Shteven]

Above question aimed at Yos, although anyone could answer/think about it if they want.

[Yosarian2]

In order for me to accept the claim that we should lynch non-investigated players simply because there are three possible roles instead of two, I'd have to also accept that the town's read is no better than a die roll. Well, there's certainly a lot of room for error, but I'd certainly hope we can do better than random selection. And if my selection falls on a non-goon, that's just fine by me.

Well, it's not just the 2 vs. 3 thing; lynching someone who's not investigated also gives us more information. If we lynch someone who's not investigated and they turn out to be the Godfather or the SK, then those three investigated "innocents" who are still alive become more useful; for example, if we find and lynch the SK. If we lynch someone who's not investigated and they turn out to be a townie, that's not great, but at least it narrows down the possibilites for who a goon might be.

That being said, I'm not necessaraly opposed to lynching someone else, if given a good reason for it. Lynching a non-investigated is a preference, but it's not an absolute one.

What would you do if Glork isn't a cop?

Eh? You mean, if he's a scum pretending to be a cop? I think we'd likely figure that out if he lived a few more days just because he didn't get killed, and frankly even if he was a scum pretending to be a cop he'd still likely get nightkilled by the other group tonight.

[Shteven]

I meant more specifically that he'd be misleading your lynches. Maybe the innocents aren't actually innocent.

I don't believe this to be likely, I just don't like seeing assumptions being taken as fact. Lynching anyone would narrow down who the goon could be in the case of Glork lying. Frankly, on day 4, I'm not interested in narrowing things down, I'm interested in successfully lynching either mafia or the SK.

Perhaps it's not extremely dire yet, but the town's not in nearly as strong a position as it was yesterday.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork's either the SK or the cop, that's nearly certain at this point. So he's not going to be steering us AWAY from anyone besides himself. If he's the SK, he'll steer us TO overly-obvious SK candidates like myself and away from himself. But you don't have to worry about his minimization of suspicion of Kinetic, for example, being suspicious. He pretty much cannot be Kinetic's scumpartner.

So yeah, Glork's just as interested in hitting the godfather and goon as anyone here.

[Shteven]

Agreed. I simply dislike it when people take "very likely" and replace it with "certain". It's close...but...not quite close enough

Honestly I'd like to feel as though we're getting somewhere; last few days have been back and forth to no immediate end. I'd like everyone (aside from CTD perhaps) to place a vote on someone, let's see where we stand.

[Glork]

Agreed. I simply dislike it when people take "very likely" and replace it with "certain".

LULZ.

MBL, you should read this a thousand times to commit it to memory.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yeah, I grinned when I read that.

[Yosarian2]

Glork's either the SK or the cop, that's nearly certain at this point. So he's not going to be steering us AWAY from anyone besides himself. If he's the SK, he'll steer us TO overly-obvious SK candidates like myself and away from himself. But you don't have to worry about his minimization of suspicion of Kinetic, for example, being suspicious. He pretty much cannot be Kinetic's scumpartner.

So yeah, Glork's just as interested in hitting the godfather and goon as anyone here.

Actually, I'd think that if he was the SK he'd be focusing on trying to get mafia members lynched today, and want to leave likely SK suspects like you alive until later to reduce the chances of the town figuring out his own alignment.

[Yosarian2]

I meant more specifically that he'd be misleading your lynches. Maybe the innocents aren't actually innocent.

I don't believe this to be likely, I just don't like seeing assumptions being taken as fact.

(shrug) Well, I can understand that, but I tend to think that the odds of Glork not being a pro-town cop are incredibly small right now. So yes, I'm treating Glork's cop-ness basically as a fact, because I think it's the closest thing we have at this point to a fact. I mean, very few things in a mafia game are certain except for the alignment of dead players, but in order to figure out anything using logic, you need to start with certain assumptions.

[Glork]

Glork's either the SK or the cop, that's nearly certain at this point. So he's not going to be steering us AWAY from anyone besides himself. If he's the SK, he'll steer us TO overly-obvious SK candidates like myself and away from himself. But you don't have to worry about his minimization of suspicion of Kinetic, for example, being suspicious. He pretty much cannot be Kinetic's scumpartner.

So yeah, Glork's just as interested in hitting the godfather and goon as anyone here.

Actually, I'd think that if he was the SK he'd be focusing on trying to get mafia members lynched today, and want to leave likely SK suspects like you alive until later to reduce the chances of the town figuring out his own alignment.

....which is exactly what I said earlier in this game-day, which is exactly why I'm unlikely to be the SK. If I'm the SK, between my claim and my behavior, today, I am playing to lose as hard as possible.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Honestly I'd like to feel as though we're getting somewhere; last few days have been back and forth to no immediate end. I'd like everyone (aside from CTD perhaps) to place a vote on someone, let's see where we stand.

Not to muddy the waters further, but this is something a scum would be likely to want--a clear picture of everyone's intentions so he can choose a side to push. I'm going to look closely about how committed you have been to a lynch thus far today, and if I see a lot of wishy-washy stuff, I'm voting you.