Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

NB:- in the above post "wcs" means "worst-case scenario"

[AlyG]

I propose hunt scum. It won't be as hard because if there isn't an RB then i know 1 member of the mafia. I also don't really know how to hunt an SK. Guys, i'm your tracker. I tracked originality during the night and my result was that he targeted CarrotCake. CarrotCake died during the night so it meant that he either tried to RB her or he targeted her for his NK. However, the possibility of him being scum outweighs the chance of him being an RB. The only reason i didn't say this staright away is because i thought i may be able to put a case against him and try to get him lynched without giving away my identity. But i have now decided agianst it because it may be to difficult and no one is very suspicious of him. Only i am. And if you guys don't believe then go ahead and lynch me. I dare you. if you do then you have lost a valuable pro-town role. So is does anyone know if there is an RB or not? It would help.

[Oman]

Good point. Very good point.

Well I don't feel like my case on dybeck or AlyG has a whole lot of power behind it, perhaps a little. But I want more than a strange accusation to lynch dybeck in a dangerous position like this (unlike vollkan I believe it to be 3 scum 1 SK). I think AlyG looks like a better candidate for SK just from the NK (although, that could be the scum NK instead of SK, in which case AlyG looks bad anyway).

And so

Vote AlyG

IGMEOY: dybeck

I feel AlyG could be either scum or SK, whereas dybeck could be scum/SK/or townie relying on a bad tell.

[vollkan]

I propose hunt scum. It won't be as hard because if there isn't an RB then i know 1 member of the mafia. I also don't really know how to hunt an SK. Guys, i'm your tracker. I tracked originality during the night and my result was that he targeted CarrotCake. CarrotCake died during the night so it meant that he either tried to RB her or he targeted her for his NK. However, the possibility of him being scum outweighs the chance of him being an RB. The only reason i didn't say this staright away is because i thought i may be able to put a case against him and try to get him
lynched without giving away my identity. But i have now decided agianst it because it may be to difficult and no one is very suspicious of him. Only i am. And if you guys don't believe then go ahead and lynch me. I dare you. if you do then you have lost a valuable pro-town role. So is does anyone know if there is an RB or not? It would help.

Unvote

You have claimed at just two votes?

AlyG, there is one glaring problem with this. You say that you "know" Orig is mafia if there isn't an RB. However, Orig could well also be a SK or a pro-town power role (ie. cop or a failiing doctor).

As such, it doesn't make any sense at all that you would say you were going to try and build a normal case because you don't know Orig's role.

Furthermore, you opened this day with an FoS on Blackstrike when, if your story is true, the logical thing would have been to find something on Orig.

I am more than a little suspicious of your claim, but I cannot refute it so, thus, I have unvoted.

Now, as it stands this therefore means that Orig must be non-vanilla. Hence, if he is pro-town, he must be a power role and will in all likelihood now be NKed. In other words, the mafia and SK now know that Orig is either a power-role townie or a member of the other non-town faction.

I will think about this more, but it looks like one possible way to resolve this is to get a role-claim for Orig.

[dybeck]

Originality visited somebody. Now they're dead.

vote: originality

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.

[AlyG]

Good thing that you believe me. Although now i'm pretty much definetely going to be NK'ed. Well now there is a chance of originality being a:

a) Doctor (Maybe)
b) RoleBlocker (Highly Unlikely)
c) Mafia (Biggest chance)

I'm very sure he is Mafia because of his past actions and of course his infamous first post. Which makes it seem all more likely he is scum. Thoughts guys?

[AlyG]

Oh and d) Serial Killer (Unsure of)

[AlyG]

Sorry for the triple post but i didn't immediately put a case against orig because at that time i was planning to keep my identity secret and if i immediately put a case against him then it may have looked that i know something about him and it could of may given away my pro-town role.

[vollkan]

Good thing that you believe me. Although now i'm pretty much definetely going to be NK'ed. Well now there is a chance of originality being a:

a) Doctor (Maybe)
b) RoleBlocker (Highly Unlikely)
c) Mafia (Biggest chance)

I'm very sure he is Mafia because of his past actions and of course his infamous first post. Which makes it seem all more likely he is scum. Thoughts guys?

Well, he could also be cop, watcher, basically anything non-killing. Actually, he could be a killing role with one of Spurg or Carrot being targeted twice (though there appears to only be single MOs). Basically, all you have proven (if your claim is real) is that Orig is not vanilla.

I don't believe you; I smell BS but I can't argue against it yet so I have to unvote. It isn't like tracker is a very common role so it is actually a fairly safe claim for scum (I notice that Streeflo has a scummie nomination for a tracker claim as scum in Mini 455).

I suspect Orig; I placed a HoS on him in my first post here. BUT, my suspicion of AlyG is greater. I am waiting for a roleclaim from Orig before anything, unless someone can prove that a claim from Orig would be unhelpful.

[vollkan]

NB:- in my post above, BS means "bullshit" not "Blackstrike"

[Oman]

UNVOTE

! Sorry I AlyG posted her claim whilst I wrote.

[Oman]

And if you guys don't believe then go ahead and lynch me. I dare you. if you do then you have lost a valuable pro-town role.

Scummy as hell.

So is does anyone know if there is an RB or not? It would help.

Stop fishing

Guys, i'm your tracker. I tracked originality during the night and my result was that he targeted CarrotCake.

Your lack of vote on him so far says otherwise.

a) Doctor (Maybe)

He's not, and you're stupid to suggest it. Remember Carrotcaking dieing? Yeah, docs stop that.

b) RoleBlocker (Highly Unlikely)

Why so? I like the way Doctor is higher than this

c) Mafia (Biggest chance)

I agree that this is a big chance too

d) Serial Killer (Unsure of)

Also agree there is a possibility of this (I would call this second choice)

i was planning to keep my identity secret and if i immediately put a case against him then it may have looked that i know something about him and it could of may given away my pro-town role.

You didn't post any case on him today. Not a vote, not a case, and that opening post is still scummy.

unless someone can prove that a claim from Orig would be unhelpful.

I can't prove it, but I'll be Orig fakeclaims.

I doubt AlyG's claim (wow thats two this game). I doubt it for a few good reasons:
Lack of case/vote on originality.
AlyG's first post calling for lynch on someone else.

I could find examples if you want, but basically AlyG has done nothing against originality today. I see this as one thing right now: a bus brought in to get the heat onto originality and if a lynch occurs "clear" AlyG.

Vote AlyG

I don't need to hear orig claim, I'd prefer to keep our roles in the dark.

[Oman]

Gah! Sorry, that last line under Vollkan's quote is wrong:

It should read: I can't prove it, but I'll guess Orig fakeclaims (due to the bus theory, yeah?) (I shouldn't post and type in scumchat at the same time)

Also add to the doubt list:
Threatening the town.
Unprovoked claim.

[vollkan]

Your analysis of AlyG is correct; I just kind of summaried that all when I called it bullshit.

However, I still would recommend not voting at this stage since he is still technically a claimed power role.

I can't prove it, but I'll be Orig fakeclaims.

That's my fear also. Specifically, that AlyG is scum with Orig and that Orig will claim RB.

That fits with the fact that AlyG has ALREADY asked people to claim RB (blatant role-fishing). If he was sincere about catching a scum Orig, AlyG would NOT be asking people to claim, since that prevents catching Orig by counter-claim. In other words, this really does look like AlyG is trying to set up a safe claim of RB for Orig.

I could find examples if you want, but basically AlyG has done nothing against originality today. I see this as one thing right now: a bus brought in to get the heat onto originality and if a lynch occurs "clear" AlyG.

This is also a possibility, but I think the evidence points more to what I suggest above.

I am

this close

to re-voting AlyG. There is just SO MUCH that is wrong with his claim, but I feel as a matter of principle that I cannot vote a claimed power role.

[Oman]

Aye I'm with you Vollkan.

Now here is my question to everyone:

If AlyG comes up town/scum what does that mean for orig?

If Orig comes up town/scum what does that mean for AlyG?

[vollkan]

If AlyG comes up town/scum what does that mean for orig?

Well, I think Orig should roleclaim before anything happens.

If AlyG is town (I assume you mean "tracker", since I cannot see a town AlyG lying about this): We can safely assume that Orig is not vanilla and will have to deal with whatever claim he has made.

If AlyG is scum: Depends...On one hand this can be seen as AlyG trying to set up a town-Orig lynch (though I think that a 1 for 1 trade is a pretty ineffective scum tactic). So, therefore, it would make more "sense" to me as a bussing tactic.

If Orig comes up town/scum what does that mean for AlyG?

If Orig is scum: Doesn't say anything conclusive about AlyG.
If Orig is vanilla town: Proves AlyG is lying. I would then pass a motion to lynch AlyG.
If Orig is power-role town: Makes AlyG's claim look genuine.

On another note, if AlyG is being genuine here, then what he has done is completely unhelpful. AlyG has, evidently, known the possibility of Orig being pro-town and yet nonetheless chose to reveal his role with no reason (he only had two votes).

Thus, a tracker-AlyG has chosen to act in a way which outs one power role and potentially outs another. Actually, since AlyG has already asked any RB to claim, this potentially risks a total of 3 outings: ALyG, RB and Orig. I call this sort of thing, "anti-town".

Also, dybeck gets a

FoS

from me for his quickness to vote Orig.

[Oman]

You're right, without orig claiming we can't make a decision. But I'd rather lynch AlyG (firstly as he is more scummy but also) because it gives us more info and I can't think of a protown role less helpfull than a tracker (Busdriver or Gaoler maybe).

Has anyone found any powerrole tells from orig in his posts that could have given AlyG the hint and allowed a fakeclaim gambit (I admit its a rough gambit, but if he really is a powerrole it almost clears AlyG)?

[Lucienne]

It's my first reaction because I was already upset that Retarded Ryan basically pissed away D1 for us. Then the new day begins with the added bonus of having two killing roles, which makes the game much more difficult for the town.

Yes. And I'm having trouble working out how "we have two killing roles" constitutes the same as "there is an SK."

I'm not going to hold suspicion against BS until he does something I recognise as being anti-town.

Right.

Can you explain how this:

I'm currantly lurking because I don't have anything to contribute.

is at all pro-town?

I'm pretty sure that you're a serial killer playing innocent.

I'd maybe not go that far.

But the whole point is: if you are pro-town, it isn't really pro-town to wildly declare "it looks as though we have an SK." A

pro-town

reaction to this would be "we have had two deaths."

Dybeck for that SK comment, which his reasoning is severly flawed (in fact I can think of about 3-4 other scenarios which make more sense).

Good, let's hear them.

One thing I'd point out is that an SK would usually open with "Hmm.. a protown vig" to leave the claim open later.

Pure WIFOM speculation.

Try again?

1. Protown Vig
1.5 1-shot vig.
2. Jack of All Trades
3. CPR doc
4. 2nd scumgroup.

1. Possible.
1.5. Unlikely.
2. Highly unlikely.
3. Not gonna happen.
4. Ultimate fail.

So overall, only one of your other scenarios has any possible merit.

More importantly, are you trying to suggest it's more likely we have

2 scumgroups

than an SK? If so, I'd revise Mini Normal balance. 'Cause that sure is flawed.

I admit that these are not as likely as an SK (except maybe protown vig) you didn't even think to consider them. You were definate that there was an SK.

You've lost me here. Why is this a criticism of dybeck, since as I recall, shaf.ted said this. Furthermore, if this is so scummy, why didn't you proclaim this when shaf.ted said it?

A KILLING ROLE was revealed, which means it could be (looking at the likely ones) a protown vig or an SK. Now, my comment was if he was involved in any way 10 to 1 he's say it was a protown vig. Also, by your logic. Congradulations all pro-town memebers for not being NKed. I am now a confirmed Pro-town character due to my congradulating that role.

I didn't understand a word of this.

That said, dybeck, I have no idea why we should leave the SK alive. If we catch someone as anti-town, why leave them alive?

Not sure about my vote at this point.

[shaft.ed]

Wow lots of developments over the evening. I'll start with a minor point towards dybeck:

Shaft.ed, I think you're the only person ever to get so defensive over somebody trying to persuade the town that

you

should not be lynched.

First of all I was not being defensive, I was being offensive in pointing out the errors and mistakes of your post. And once again there you go with the projection. You argued the SK should not be lynched, not me. Since I'm not the SK and I'd prefer to see them dead, I strongly believe your argument is wrongheaded.

However, I realize the issue of a mislynch is horribly bad for us right now. And analyzing your past vote history I can see that you are very quick to toss votes and talk of lynching around to pressure people. Thus I will

unvote dybeck

as I see your play as pro-town, in that I would have made a similar accusation in your position and the weight you gave the accusation was a difference in playstyle.

EGMEOY

Now on to AlyG. All I can say is WOW. I agree strongly with Oman and vollkan, my BS detector went through the roof when AlyG made that claim. What really really stood out like a sore thumb was this passage:

And if you guys don't believe then go ahead and lynch me. I dare you. if you do then you have lost a valuable pro-town role.

I really don't see the need for someone claiming with what seems to be a tight case (ie. I tracked a guy that targeted a dead person) to be so defensive and downright threatening in their claim post. It just doesn't make sense.

I also agree with the sentiment that a tracker is a more rare role thus less likely to run into a counterclaim.

Also if I were in this position my first post of the day would have been all about how scummy originality is. His play put him as one of the most erratic in D1 and you very likely could have built up an argument against him without claiming. Heck you still could have built up an argument on this page without claiming. If you really were pro-town you'd do everything in your power to get your 'known scum' lynched without having to out yourself. But this is the first post today you even mention originality. In fact it comes only after your failed attempt of getting a Dr. Blackstrike bandwagon started.

Since the voting is so crucial today I'm going to

HoS AlyG

until we hear back from originality. This is seriously a hair's width from becoming a vote.

[shaft.ed]

It's my first reaction because I was already upset that Retarded Ryan basically pissed away D1 for us. Then the new day begins with the added bonus of having two killing roles, which makes the game much more difficult for the town.

Yes. And I'm having trouble working out how "we have two killing roles" constitutes the same as "there is an SK."

You're right I should have said, that we either have an SK or an incredibly reckless/moronic vigilante that decided to gamble on a NK after a shortened D1 on which we have obsolutely zero evidence as to who may be mafia since no bandwagon got passed L-3. Seriously a vigilante kill on N1 is rare enough, only a complete and utter idiot would have attempted a NK after the amount of information that ryan allowed us to produce on D1.

If there is anyone in this game that doesn't think we have an SK in it could they please raise their hand? I doubt we'll be seeing any.

[Lucienne]

Well I don't feel like my case on dybeck or AlyG has a whole lot of power behind it, perhaps a little.

And so

Vote AlyG

IGMEOY: dybeck

I feel AlyG could be either scum or SK, whereas dybeck could be scum/SK/or townie relying on a bad tell.

Erm...

Didn't you say you don't like the case against AlyG? If so, why are you voting for him?

Later, you do say you simulposted... what was your initial post here referring to?

Furthermore, you opened this day with an FoS on Blackstrike when, if your story is true, the logical thing would have been to find something on Orig.

QFT.

It's like a cop with a guilty yet voting somewhere else. If you truly thought he was scum why did you vote for him?

Although in this situation there are lots of alternatives. I'm not sure why this points to orig scum too heavily (although it is evidence nonetheless).

Originality visited somebody. Now they're dead.

vote: originality

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.

Jumping to conclusions, here, are we?

I don't like this from dybeck. I don't trust AlyG at all. I'd be prepared to vote for him, since I think there are some holes in his claim that have already been discussed.

I'm actually more suspicious of the

timing

he claimed - claiming on two votes seems defensive to the extreme, and definitely like he wants his butt to be saved before he gets near a lynch.

You're right I should have said, that we either have an SK or an incredibly reckless/moronic vigilante that decided to gamble on a NK after a shortened D1 on which we have obsolutely zero evidence as to who may be mafia since no bandwagon got passed L-3. Seriously a vigilante kill on N1 is rare enough, only a complete and utter idiot would have attempted a NK after the amount of information that ryan allowed us to produce on D1.

I think it's silly to suggest that everyone plays perfectly. I've seen vigs shoot on night one - which is therefore why I'm confused at why you

automatically

said "oooh, SK here, everyone!"

As I said, the

logical

and pro-town reaction is to think "two deaths". Speculating like that is scummy.

Mod Note:

Quote tag fixed

[Lucienne]

Erm... just to clarify since my quote tags didn't work, it was Oman voting for AlyG, and me failing at quote tags.

I didn't vote for AlyG in the above post.

MOD:

Could you sort that quote tag? It's a bit misleading and looks as though I'm voting AlyG, when I'm not.

[shaft.ed]

Lucienne I'd also just unvote to make sure your vote isn't counted if you don't want it to be. We're in a precarious position right now.

I also agree Oman's vote is a bit odd. I had forgetten it preceeding AlyG's claim. Thanks for pointing that out.

Another thing I just realized. If AlyG does come up scum I think this very much implicates Dr. Blackstrike. AlyG started the Day against Blackstrike and now suddenly shifts to originality. I think this points out that Dr. BS is untouchable to AlyG if this is a set up to lynch an innocent.

And it looks as though I could argue all day on this SK comment. But after this game's over maybe I'll make a poll as to how many people would vig kill N1 after a shortened D1 as we had. I think it'll be below 5% maybe even 1%. I'm not talking perfect play here, I'm talking playing aboe the 5th percentile.

[dybeck]

Can somebody please tell me why are we going for the tracker and not the scum?

Is it upside-down day? Should I be walking around with shoes on my hand and gloves on my feet?

I'd also point out that originality was all very vocal yesterday and nearly got himself lynched. The fact that he's so quiet today smacks to me of someone who's received a serious talking to by his scummates overnight.

MOD

: May we have a vote count?

[Lucienne]

unvote

, in case the mod thinks I was voting AlyG (although I wasn't actually voting AlyG, but whatever).