SAGA FRONTIER MAFIA (GAME END)

[Albert B. Rampage]

VOTE: rylai

Not liking their posts one bit

[Sensei]

Sensei, what do you 'get' now? What does dry mean? Sentinel gives me bad vibes but I'm kind of agreeing with them on how I don't like this wagon.

It clicked in my head why fluminator is scum. With the presence of a miller the chances of there being a godfather go up. So his entrance is not as null as it would be in a vacuum.

It means not wet.

hey guys have a readslist
The Cool Cucumbers: strong town lean: Hasn't done anything scummy, and cerberus reaction was super town
Drunken Pirates: town lean: Nothing scummy, thus town
Drixx: town lean: nothing scummy
Rylai and Lina: slight town lean: less towny due to a lack of scumhunting
sharky5x: null
wickedestjr: null
ABR: null: really just being kinda useless :/
Klingoncelt: null:
DiamondSentinel:slight lean scum: there's some weird dissonance. In 18 doesn't seem confident in his reads, then 243 jumps to confidence in his reads, and then in 313 he loses his confidence.
Skybird: scum lean: 275 and 289 read as rolefishing to me
I'm not a great townhunter.
I spent like 3 hours isoing all of these people, I'll get the rest tomorrow
(In case you're wondering I'm useless at getting reads without isoing so I just went ahead and made a readslist)

Thoughts on zzzx, maxwell, yos, fluminator and dgb?

[Yimmy]

I spent like 3 hours isoing all of these people, I'll get the rest tomorrow

[DiamondSentinel]

@Yimmy

Well, there's a difference between gut reads and then content reads. My gut reads I'm happier with, but people hate. I suck at content reads, and nobody likes them. XD

[MaxwellPuckett]

Sensei, what do you 'get' now? What does dry mean? Sentinel gives me bad vibes but I'm kind of agreeing with them on how I don't like this wagon.

It clicked in my head why fluminator is scum. With the presence of a miller the chances of there being a godfather go up. So his entrance is not as null as it would be in a vacuum.

It means not wet.

Titus said something similar earlier, about that 'not miller' claim being a way to draw investigations. I kind of dismissed it though, as calling attention to that isn't ideal for a godfather.
I still think it's it's pretty circumstantial. This whole thing just looks to me like a coincidence that conclusions are being drawn from.

But, I don't mind your vote as much now, if that's your thought process.

[DiamondSentinel]

Basically it's just whether or not I like my reads. Because nobody else does.

[Wickedestjr]

Finally caught up!

MC: Wickedestjr

I concur. I abhor lurking on principle, and this game's mechanics make it that much more undesireable.

Why is that?

what would be their intention to claim that they are not millers. Makes zero sense that is something that is not wanted in the game especially where is so much subject revolving around MC and the setup. Seems like a filler post to me. Scum is usually dont want to speculate their thoughts on the game subjects as its their job and most of them always end up with babbling posts.

Wouldn't scum want to appear like they're actually scum hunting, though?

He's scum, but his wagon is crap. Not in the sense that it's scum driven. In the sense that it won't lead to a scum lynch. And I feel like my sense of understanding wagons is better than my sense of understanding people.

On page 12, and about 24 hours into the game, why is it necessary for the bandwagon to have lynch potential?

Why are you acting this weird? your like "too scummy" to be the scum

It seems you just begged me to vote you ...

in that case here you go VOTE: Fluminator

Wouldn't "too scummy to be scum" be a reason

not

to vote for him?

flum said "I am not a miller" and then r&l claimed miller. it was a weird occurrence early on d1. it raised my eyebrows. sort of like the movie the body snatchers type of thing.

What could that 'weird occurrence' indicate?

Klingoncelt

, what's the harm in ABR voting DGB for MC when he can just change his vote? What's the scum motivation for him to do that?

Fluminator

, can you explain your CD read?

[Wickedestjr]

Maxwell looks pretty townish;

Spoiler: Posts

I can't believe you've put me in with the players who haven't posted yet, and ZZZX. I think I'm actually crying.

But in all seriousness, I have about the same number of posts as Spiff, so I have to ask what your criteria are. If I quote posts and state whether I like them or not, do I get town points on your list? Put a read down on me, come on.

This conversation has me agreeing with one of you, and then the other says something and I want to agree with them instead. You both just sound like you know what you're talking about, makes things a bit difficult. It doesn't help that I'm used to thinking of Drixx and Cerb as the same slot. I'm very sorry guys, but you seemed to get along well enough that I never bothered to think of you two as separate players, so now I don't know which parts of your personality are which. Hopefully this game will remedy that.

I also feel pretty comfortable calling Diamond and ZZZX town...

Not a fan of the Fluminator bandwagon: the reasoning seems bad. Fluminator's explanation for claiming "not miller" makes perfect sense (assuming he can back it up with the evidence Low-key asked for) and I seriously doubt this is a Godfather gambit. The "not miller" claim seems like a slight town tell, actually.

[Wickedestjr]

Vote: Rylai and Lina

-gut says that Rylai's trying to earn town credit from her level of investment in this game
-don't like their Flum vote
-don't like this post;

I gave my reads about town reading someone and I'm asking questions to help me understand them better

everything. the way people townblocking. your idea about drixx , stuffs like that ...

~Rylai

-first line feels weird
-asks Sensei to comment on "the way people are town blocking" when, iirc, she was the only one trying to town block - she could have just asked "what do you think about me?"
-requests a town block and

then

asks for meta from two of the players she wants in the town block

[Wickedestjr]

EBWOP: Last point actually applies to posts 189/198...

[Yosarian2]

It clicked in my head why fluminator is scum. With the presence of a miller the chances of there being a godfather go up. So his entrance is not as null as it would be in a vacuum.

I'm going to have to play the Bayesian card here, which is oddly I think already the third time this game someone has done that.

If the odds, in a vacuum, of a random player in a random game being an investigative proof godfather are normally very, very low, say 1%, then even if a couple of things happen that raise the odds, they still aren't going to be that high. So maybe flum now has a 3% or a 5% chance of being a godfather, because of his miller comment your setup observations.

That's not enough to significantly change his overall odds of being scum, especially not if you also think his odds of being a goon dropped because of the miller comment. If anything his overall odds of being scum probably went down there.

Basically, just don't worry much about wild longshots like "but what if he's a mafia godfather" at this point on day 1. You shouldn't seriously be entiertaining longshot ideas like that until you have a lot more evidence to work with, and they certanly shouldn't be affecting your vote.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Vote: Rylai and Lina

-gut says that Rylai's trying to earn town credit from her level of investment in this game
-don't like their Flum vote
-don't like this post;

I gave my reads about town reading someone and I'm asking questions to help me understand them better

everything. the way people townblocking. your idea about drixx , stuffs like that ...

~Rylai

-first line feels weird
-asks Sensei to comment on "the way people are town blocking" when, iirc, she was the only one trying to town block - she could have just asked "what do you think about me?"
-requests a town block and

then

asks for meta from two of the players she wants in the town block

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[MaxwellPuckett]

I'm not sure those probabilities are right. Starting from a basis of randomly picked roles is flawed when these roles were created specifically by Varsoon based off of flavour. Nothing random about it. So, applying these to that small random chance is pointless.

The existence of a miller guarantees investigative roles, and in a handcrafted game, investigative roles can be used with result modifiers, such as miller and godfather. So the chances are not 3-5%, but much higher. Of there being a godfather, I mean, not of Flum specifically being one. I'd say there'slike a... 1/3 chance, but that'd just be a guess based on nothing. I DO think your estimate is incredibly low.

But, I do like the end of your post, Yosarian. Something like that shouldn't be evidence for someone being scum, to the point that it's what makes you vote a person.

PEDIT: Yeah Wicked's entrance was good

[Drunken Pirates]

@FA, I want you to ask whether you're a miller or a universal miller as I defined in 370.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I would like either DGB or Yosarian for MC.

[Drunken Pirates]

I'm not sure those probabilities are right. Starting from a basis of randomly picked roles is flawed when these roles were created specifically by Varsoon based off of flavour. Nothing random about it. So, applying these to that small random chance is pointless.

The existence of a miller guarantees investigative roles, and in a handcrafted game, investigative roles can be used with result modifiers, such as miller and godfather. So the chances are not 3-5%, but much higher. Of there being a godfather, I mean, not of Flum specifically being one. I'd say there'slike a... 1/3 chance, but that'd just be a guess based on nothing. I DO think your estimate is incredibly low.

But, I do like the end of your post, Yosarian. Something like that shouldn't be evidence for someone being scum, to the point that it's what makes you vote a person.

PEDIT: Yeah Wicked's entrance was good

Stop with the math and setup spec. We both know Varsoon loves godfathers and millers. This math thing from you is crappy.

The Shiro/FA wagon is a load of crap.

[Albert B. Rampage]

No it's fucking awesome, and you're scum too Titus.

[Drunken Pirates]

I would like either DGB or Yosarian for MC.

Give me a Fluminator vote and I will talk to Mollie on this.

~Titus

[Albert B. Rampage]

No, Rylai is scum. I don't care who you vote for MC.

[Drunken Pirates]

No, Rylai is scum. I don't care who you vote for MC.

Talk to me about it. I don't see them as scum at all.

Talk to me about your Fluminator read.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Talk to Wicked about Rylai. Fluminator hasn't posted enough content for me to think one way or another.

[Sensei]

Basically, just don't worry much about wild longshots like "but what if he's a mafia godfather" at this point on day 1. You shouldn't seriously be entiertaining longshot ideas like that until you have a lot more evidence to work with, and they certanly shouldn't be affecting your vote.

Sure.

All I was clarifying was that when I earlier expressed flums not-miller claim as null - I wasn't really considering any outside factors.

I'm not a fan of his play so far, which is the largest contributing factor.

[MaxwellPuckett]

I'm not sure those probabilities are right. Starting from a basis of randomly picked roles is flawed when these roles were created specifically by Varsoon based off of flavour. Nothing random about it. So, applying these to that small random chance is pointless.

The existence of a miller guarantees investigative roles, and in a handcrafted game, investigative roles can be used with result modifiers, such as miller and godfather. So the chances are not 3-5%, but much higher. Of there being a godfather, I mean, not of Flum specifically being one. I'd say there'slike a... 1/3 chance, but that'd just be a guess based on nothing. I DO think your estimate is incredibly low.

But, I do like the end of your post, Yosarian. Something like that shouldn't be evidence for someone being scum, to the point that it's what makes you vote a person.

PEDIT: Yeah Wicked's entrance was good

Stop with the math and setup spec. We both know Varsoon loves godfathers and millers. This math thing from you is crappy.

The Shiro/FA wagon is a load of crap.

Excuse me? I was the one telling Yosarian that this math thing doesn't work. And, I uh.. agreed there was a good chance of there being a godfather, so I really don't see why you have a problem with this.

Rylai and Lina wagon is better than the Flum one. Flum's probably town. R&L are difficult for me to read so I'd prefer a different wagon, though. Like the pirates, who might actually be drunk because they continue to miss the point of my posts.

[Drunken Pirates]

@ABR - I am talking to you because I want to work with you. Wicked has no experience with the hydra. The "weird" posts are going to be natural in someone's ISO who has English as a second language. It's not enough to state something's weird but to articulate why. That's for this head and you basically don't want to talk with Mollie.

Also, Fluminator has 20 plus posts and read walls. Most of the game's content has centered on Fluminator. If you don't have a thought on an active player, my thought is why?

@MaxwellPuckett, No you weren't in 512. You still had 1/3 chance of a godfather in the game. This is math to justify a low chance of an irrelevant point. We are talking about millers not godfathers.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not sure those probabilities are right. Starting from a basis of randomly picked roles is flawed when these roles were created specifically by Varsoon based off of flavour. Nothing random about it. So, applying these to that small random chance is pointless.

I'm saying the odds of one specific player being a godfather. So, if there's 20 players in the game, and 1 in 4 games have 1 godfather (and basically no games have more then one godfather) then the odds of a specific player being a godfather in a specific game is (1/20)*(1/4), or about 1.25%.

I mean, you can quibble with the details if you want. Maybe it's 2%. Doesn't really matter.

The existence of a miller guarantees investigative roles, and in a handcrafted game, investigative roles can be used with result modifiers, such as miller and godfather. So the chances are not 3-5%, but much higher. Of there being a godfather, I mean, not of Flum specifically being one. I'd say there'slike a... 1/3 chance, but that'd just be a guess based on nothing. I DO think your estimate is incredibly low.

If the odds of a godfather double, then now maybe there's a 50% chance that there's a godfather, so a 2.5% chance that one random player is a godfather.

If Flum's play makes you think that's more likely, maybe it's a 4% or a 5% chance now that he's a godfather. Probably not that high.

Still not enough to matter, especally not if the odds him being of a goon went from, say, 25% to 15% or something like that.

The point of Bayesian analysis is that first you start with 'how likely is event x to happen' (a random player being a godfather) and then raise or lower the odds from there.