California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[logicticus]

thank you thesp

either IH is unaware of the filter posts by user function or the wikipedia function

[Zindaras]

Hi. I will have very much limited access for the coming two days. I'm unsure if I'll be able to post at all in the meantime. So here are more than 25 words for survival purposes.

[foolinc]

In terms of the secret word, I am unsure what to make of it. I've used it in a post day one, but nothing happened as far as I could tell.

I'm kind of suspicious of IH, being suspicious of logiticus. I also just filtered for mgm and was surprised at how easy it was to get EusgenieTownie, which is pretty close to mgm's claim. This doesn't make mgm a confirmed innocent in the though.

Speaking of Mgm, I've taken a look at jeep's and xyzzy's posts and discovered that mgm, PlaysWithSquirrels (who was replaced by Gaspar), LoudMouthLee, and Skruffs are common votes between both players. There has to be a reason that both were nightkilled instead of scum attempting to get the town to lynch them.

Vote: Skruffs,

[Dani Banani, Gaspar], [PookyTheMagicalBear, IH, Mgm, Talitha, Tamuz ], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix, logicticus, LoudmouthLee, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Jeep/BM had claimed an information role and it isn't all that clear who(dayvig or poisoner most likely) killed xyzzy, foolinc. That looks like a useless line of inquiry.

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

9 to lynch.

Mgm: 4 (Dani Banani, logicticus, LoudmouthLee, Tamuz)
Adele: 2 (Gaspar, VitaminR)
Skruffs: 2 (Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc)
Dani Banani: 1 (Talitha)
logicticus: 1 (Mgm)
LoudmouthLee: 1 (IH)
Tamuz: 1 (Skruffs)

[Gaspar]

(Glork.)

Pooky: Yes, I see that now. I more or less skimmed the most recent posts because I was trying to lay down some gut thoughts/reactions. My fault.

I am somewhat baffled by the ordering of your list, Foolinc. Why is Dani at an even level with me? Why are IH/Mgm at a lower level? What do you think of LoudmouthLee's claim and his subsequent behavior?
What do you think of the Tamuz/Skruffs discussion? How about Thesp? CES?


...an awful lot of trains of thought so far today, and yet Fool chooses to use the

kills

as his primary basis for suspicion (and under the assumption that the same mafia group killed both BM and Xyzzy)? That seems a bit off to me.

(Preview Edit: It seems that all Fool did was modify his end-of-day VC from yesterday by bumping up the people who were mutually suspected by the dead players. While it shows consistency, I have to question Foolinc's failure to take into account any of the discussions today, as I just indicated above.)

[Tamuz]

Skruffs I think you are scum. I think Thesp's relation to you needs to be noted.

Updating for myself. this will of course become fully fleshed again as the day goes.

vote: Skruffs

, [mgm, foolinc]

[foolinc]

(Glork.)

Pooky: Yes, I see that now. I more or less skimmed the most recent posts because I was trying to lay down some gut thoughts/reactions. My fault.

I am somewhat baffled by the ordering of your list, Foolinc. Why is Dani at an even level with me? Why are IH/Mgm at a lower level? What do you think of LoudmouthLee's claim and his subsequent behavior?
What do you think of the Tamuz/Skruffs discussion? How about Thesp? CES?


...an awful lot of trains of thought so far today, and yet Fool chooses to use the

kills

as his primary basis for suspicion (and under the assumption that the same mafia group killed both BM and Xyzzy)? That seems a bit off to me.

(Preview Edit: It seems that all Fool did was modify his end-of-day VC from yesterday by bumping up the people who were mutually suspected by the dead players. While it shows consistency, I have to question Foolinc's failure to take into account any of the discussions today, as I just indicated above.)

I'm glad to see you saw that IH was also moved up as well.

And today's discussions DID go into the process. Skruffs had his softclaim. The events between Mgm and IH also played a part in them getting bumped up (I was close to moving logicticus up as well), and the fact that LML is grouped with my likely townie group and not by himself inbetween that group and no lynch or even on the other side of the no lynch should have tipped you off that I have some suspisions about him, even with his role claim and the whole duel.

And the reason you are on the same level as Danni is because I did augment my old list and while you were moved up I did see any reason to move Danni.

And no, I don't think that they were both killed by the same scum group, however I do believe that they both were on the right track in some fashion or else they wouldn't have been killed.

CES: I realize that BM claimed to be an information role, however I also thought that there could have been a chance that the mafia would use BM's poor past and try for a lynch.

[Mgm]

Hi. I will have very much limited access for the coming two days. I'm unsure if I'll be able to post at all in the meantime. So here are more than 25 words for survival purposes.

That should give me some time to retrieve my notes and respond to post 745.

[Dragon Phoenix]

More detailed analysis to follow within 24 hours from this post. I just want to make sure that I do not get replaced before I have the chance to do so.

[Zindaras]

Sneaking in a post while I should be working.

Regarding secret words: All I'm going to say is that I have one.

[LoudmouthLee]

I, too, have a secret word. I used it twice yesterday. I don't know what, if anything, happened with it. I had asked the mod what it does and if everyone has one (like Verbose). Mr. Grey put on his charms and told me that he couldn't answer either of those questions.

Larger, game post incoming in an hour or so, as I have time to formulate one while at work.

[LoudmouthLee]

Speaking of Mgm, I've taken a look at jeep's and xyzzy's posts and discovered that mgm, PlaysWithSquirrels (who was replaced by Gaspar), LoudMouthLee, and Skruffs are common votes between both players. There has to be a reason that both were nightkilled instead of scum attempting to get the town to lynch them.

Bogus. You think that the majority of the town would have "followed" Xyzzy to a lynch of any of these players? Why do you think that Xyzzy was nearly the condorcet winner? (By a 9-8 vote, Xyzzy outlasted Cubsfan). Xyzzy had a lot of heat on him. I severely doubt that he would have led the town on a crusade to get anyone.

You say that they were both voting for me (and a few others), and that may be true, but that sample set is irrevelant. A little bit less than the majority of the town was voting for me at my greatest VC and the majority votyed me at least once throughout the day.

In other words, throw a rock at two players. Chances are both voted me at some point D1.

I dislike your deflection of attention, and you will be garnering my vote for now.

@Foolinc - Please outline your case on Gaspar. Is it just the "I think he's the killing party that killed either Xyzzy or BM because both had voted for PWS at some point?"

It looks like a blatant framing job.

I am moving Foolinc up, MGM down, and inserting some other random spec votes in here..

Unvote.

Vote: Foolinc

, Adele, Talitha, IH, CES, [everyone unlisted], MGM, [Gaspar, DP, Zindy], NL, LML

[Gaspar]

And today's discussions DID go into the process. Skruffs had his softclaim. The events between Mgm and IH also played a part in them getting bumped up (I was close to moving logicticus up as well), and the fact that LML is grouped with my likely townie group and not by himself inbetween that group and no lynch or even on the other side of the no lynch should have tipped you off that I have some suspisions about him, even with his role claim and the whole duel.

Okay, let's attack this point-by-point:
1. Skruffs did his softclaim, but what are your exact thoughts on it? You just now brought it up without actually

saying

anything about it.
2. Again -- Reasons? What about the discussion bothers you about Mgm, IH, and Logic?
3.. Almost logic.... so you suspect IH for being suspicious of Logic, but you suspect Logic and almost bumped him up on your list. Care to elaborate on this one?
4. The LmL thing is interesting. You have suspicions of LmL, but you've got IH (who is the only other person, as far as I can tell, actively going after LmL's claim) "bumped up" and near the top of your list. Do you suspect busing? How does the LmL/IH debate affect your suspicions? This

also

seems inconsistent to me.

Also, you failed to address my questions regarding Skruffs/Tamuz, Thesp, and CES.

And the reason you are on the same level as Danni is because I did augment my old list and while you were moved up I did see any reason to move Danni.

So what you're saying is that even though everyone has posted today, none of your other suspicions have shifted at all?

And no, I don't think that they were both killed by the same scum group, however I do believe that they both were on the right track in some fashion or else they wouldn't have been killed.

CES already pointed out why this is flawed.
BM claimed to be an information role. Those, regardless of whether they are "on the right track" are always threats to the scums and instantly become viable nightkill targets.
Xyzzy was being run up, which indicates that his death likelly came from somebody who A) vigilante; or B) wants us to think they are a vigilante.

Unvote
Vote: foolinc

, [Adele, Mgm], DragonPhoenix, [other people], [Dani Banani, IH, Skruffs], No Lynch, LoudmouthLee, Gaspar

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well, this has to do for analysis for now, focusing on day two.

Adele: little to go on.

Cogito Ergo Sum: post 642 ruffles my feathers in many ways. Possibly scum.

Dani Banani, replacing Mastermind of Sin D1: post 666 (!) is as scummy as they come. Building trust with two players and suggesting a play for the day without any motivation. Post 739 does not sit well with me either. Why on earth bring up the secret word thing as townie - when for all you know [if you are a townie] that scum do not have secret words? Likely scum.

foolinc: I really do not like post 638. Possibly scum.

Gaspar, replacing PlaysWithSquirrels D1. Don't get any scum vibes. Neutral.

IH, replacing Oman D1: I like post657, even though I do not like what he wrote about me (you want me to give quotes for parts where uyou think you remember something?). Subsequent posts too. Likely town.

logicticus: I like post 692, well-reasoned, even though I don't fully agree with the final outcome of his analysis. Smells town.

LoudmouthLee: looks town to me, except for post 655. He could be a SK himself based on that. Incidentally, I do not agree that a SK should try to kill scum in the early stages oof this game (a lesson IS has told me): there are still too many townies around, so killing by mafia is good for the SK (unless he is the vistim of course).

Mgm: attracting a lot of attention, not always spot on in his reactions, but I still can't find much scumminess in his posts. Typical Mgm play. Likely town. That is until post 659. This smacks to me of scum breadcrumbing a safe claim. Upgraded to likely scum. Also the claim came way to soon for my taste.

PookyTheMagicalBear: I know he hates this remark, but I still can't get a read on him. That is generic with him though and has nothing to do with this game.

Skruffs: his comment (626) that he was blocked suggest "town" to me. This is a dangerous gambit to try to pull as scum, because if there is no role blocker (or if there is one that denies the action) he's screwed. Upgraded to likely town.

Talitha: do not like post 685. You cannot keep repeating that you can't get a read on players - sounds very non-committing and scummy to me. Likely scum.

Tamuz, replacing Thestatusquo D1: too focused on Skruffs to my taste. Not sure whether to read that as a scum sign or not.

Thesp: I like post 679. Likely townie. I don't believe a briefly suggested masonhood fof him and Skruffs.

VitaminR: sensible, most likely town.

Zindaras: I like post 689. Likely town.

In general, I like posts in which players examine a lot of others in more detail, because for scum this is far more difficult to do than for town.

Now, this analysis was done without looking back at yesterday's notes. Checking now just for fun, yesterday I had:
Cubsfan4ever, Skruffs [Dani Banani/Mastermind of Sin, Gaspar/PlaysWithSquirrels, Tamuz/Thestatusquo], [Mgm, IH/Oman, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, foolinc, logicticus, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], LoudmouthLee, Battle Mage/jeep, Dragon Phoenix, No lynch.

Vote Dani Banani

, Mgm, Talitha, [Cogito Ergo Sum, Foolinc], [Adele, Gaspar, Pooky, Tamuz], [IH, Logisticus, Skruffs, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], LML, DP, no lynch

[Skruffs]

I'm not masons with thesp. Or mgm. Or cubs. Or zindaras. Or anyone else. Not a mason, and wont be with LML later on.

Foolinc - BM, the assumed mafia kill, dropped his suspicions of me. He actually questioned the wagon on me, if I remember correctly.
And, like LML said, pretty much everyone at one point or another voted me or had me high up on their list.
So what was the real reasoning behind your vote?
If you are going to use relationships with dead people as part of your basis, why not note IH's''oh wow, scum killed a role cop, i wonder why'-type post?

Speaking of which, IH, why wouldn't scum target the only known power role?

Tamuz - why?

[Adele]

Sorry, it seems as though we're now officially trusting mgm on the understanding that he's claimed Eugenie (note to self: read the book) and he at least knows that Dante's in the game? That's not nearly as good a claim as it originally appeared. I did trust him, relatively speaking, because he wound up just seeming trustworthy yesterday, but that's not set in stone.

Now, perhaps I'm a little slower than that, but to read MGM's post (almost exclusively), ignore all other posts, look at his posts in the filter, and find the correct name on wikipedia, with their posts 8 minutes apart is just not innocent to me.

qft, actually. That does seem hella unlikely.

Are you trying to suppose that Logiticus and MGM are Scumbuddies who worked out MGM's claim so that they would be online at nearly the same time and Logiticus could 'find' information that was clearly present to all of us in an attempt to clear him?

Because thats ridiculous.

Yes, it is. Somewhat unridiculous, though, is mgm planning N0 to claim Eugenie if challenged, and mentioning that he'd do so in the way that he eventually did. Logic,

happening

to be online when mgm claimed and noticing the "E" and checking from there, naturally realised that mgm claimed as planned immediately and alerts the world to make his buddy safe as fast as possible, while giving the external-validation thing. hmm.

(smallish) FOS: mgm, logic, tamuz.

because it is, after all, very much circumastantial.

[logicticus]

Now, perhaps I'm a little slower than that, but to read MGM's post (almost exclusively), ignore all other posts, look at his posts in the filter, and find the correct name on wikipedia, with their posts 8 minutes apart is just not innocent to me.

qft, actually. That does seem hella unlikely.

did you happen to see the post where thesp did it in 4 minutes or did you skim right past it?

[LoudmouthLee]

Sorry, it seems as though we're now officially trusting mgm on the understanding that he's claimed Eugenie (note to self: read the book) and he at least knows that Dante's in the game? That's not nearly as good a claim as it originally appeared. I did trust him, relatively speaking, because he wound up just seeming trustworthy yesterday, but that's not set in stone.

Now, perhaps I'm a little slower than that, but to read MGM's post (almost exclusively), ignore all other posts, look at his posts in the filter, and find the correct name on wikipedia, with their posts 8 minutes apart is just not innocent to me.

qft, actually. That does seem hella unlikely.

Are you trying to suppose that Logiticus and MGM are Scumbuddies who worked out MGM's claim so that they would be online at nearly the same time and Logiticus could 'find' information that was clearly present to all of us in an attempt to clear him?

Because thats ridiculous.

Yes, it is. Somewhat unridiculous, though, is mgm planning N0 to claim Eugenie if challenged, and mentioning that he'd do so in the way that he eventually did. Logic,

happening

to be online when mgm claimed and noticing the "E" and checking from there, naturally realised that mgm claimed as planned immediately and alerts the world to make his buddy safe as fast as possible, while giving the external-validation thing. hmm.

(smallish) FOS: mgm, logic, tamuz.

because it is, after all, very much circumastantial.

God, I know not what to say about this post...

I am getting the feeling that you're looking for a double lynch here. It looks that you're trying to kill two birds with a single stone. Let's lynch MGM for a staged claim, and then lets lynch Logi for validating that MGM claimed in such a way while looking up information on Wikipedia.

I think the case on Logi is completely bogus.

My list stays the same, however, I would have no issue changing my vote to Adele over Foolinc (2 and 1 on my list, respectively)

[Mgm]

Sorry, it seems as though we're now officially trusting mgm on the understanding that he's claimed Eugenie (note to self: read the book) and he at least knows that Dante's in the game?

I didn't know Dantes was in the game when I started, but I am pretty sure he's in there now. As for trust, no matter how much I'd like to see it happen, I don't think the town as a whole is trusting me: officially or not.

[IH]

I didn't know Dantes was in the game when I started, but I am pretty sure he's in there now. As for trust, no matter how much I'd like to see it happen, I don't think the town as a whole is trusting me: officially or not.

I may be contesting this and I may not.

Nobody answer for him.

Why do you think Dantes is in the game or not?

I feel unsure about Logictus and MGM's claim, but I think I still support it.

NOTICE-Adele is right, they are circumstantial
Some factors that are based off of it for me.
1.Connection speed
2.Logictus knowing which letters to omit(which ties in two three)
3.Assuming he searched for what I would have (eugene) Which comes up with this list http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene
4.Me having switched to google instead of Wikipedia.

[IH]

ALSO, I will be doing a significantly more indepth post sometime in the next few days, it may wait until the weekend or not.

[logicticus]

I didn't know Dantes was in the game when I started, but I am pretty sure he's in there now. As for trust, no matter how much I'd like to see it happen, I don't think the town as a whole is trusting me: officially or not.

I may be contesting this and I may not.

Nobody answer for him.

Why do you think Dantes is in the game or not?

I feel unsure about Logictus and MGM's claim, but I think I still support it.

NOTICE-Adele is right, they are circumstantial
Some factors that are based off of it for me.
1.Connection speed
2.Logictus knowing which letters to omit(which ties in two three)
3.Assuming he searched for what I would have (eugene) Which comes up with this list http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene
4.Me having switched to google instead of Wikipedia.

i cant believe i have to defend this...

I have a great connection speed, see the end of game show marathon in the Mishmash forum for evidence of that.

2) MGM TOLD WHICH LETTER TO OMIT!!!

3) once i had eugenie townie spelled out and the next 3 letters didnt look like the would form a word i stopped.

4) I went to wikipedia, looked up Count of Monte Cristo and searched for "eugenie"

5) Now some may notice that in wikipedia Eugenie has an accento on the first e so a match case wouldnt work, but I am using firefox which searches after each character you enter, so after entering "eug" it found it.

6) I copied it and put it here.

This is the last time I will respond to questions around this. I cant believe people would actually think that I worked with MGM ahead of time to make sure I was the one that cleared him. Seriously, think about the ridiculousness of that idea.

[VitaminR]

Jeep/BM had claimed an information role and it isn't all that clear who(dayvig or poisoner most likely) killed xyzzy, foolinc. That looks like a useless line of inquiry.

*agrees*

Now, perhaps I'm a little slower than that, but to read MGM's post (almost exclusively), ignore all other posts, look at his posts in the filter, and find the correct name on wikipedia, with their posts 8 minutes apart is just not innocent to me.

qft, actually. That does seem hella unlikely.

Are you trying to suppose that Logiticus and MGM are Scumbuddies who worked out MGM's claim so that they would be online at nearly the same time and Logiticus could 'find' information that was clearly present to all of us in an attempt to clear him?

Because thats ridiculous.

Yes, it is. Somewhat unridiculous, though, is mgm planning N0 to claim Eugenie if challenged, and mentioning that he'd do so in the way that he eventually did. Logic,

happening

to be online when mgm claimed and noticing the "E" and checking from there, naturally realised that mgm claimed as planned immediately and alerts the world to make his buddy safe as fast as possible, while giving the external-validation thing. hmm.

I don't like this at all. That is really reaching. I really have a strong feeling Adele is scum.

This is actually starting to make me feel better about logicticus.

I also like Gaspar's scrutiny of foolinc and I'd like to see whether foolinc can really back up his list.

DP's run-down seems consistent and I agree with a lot of what he says. It re-inforces my feeling that he's pro-town. Also moving LML down a bit. His latest posts strike me as genuine.

Vote: Adele

, foolinc, Tamuz, Dani Banani, Talitha, logicticus, [Skruffs, IH], [Zindaras, LML, Gaspar, Thesp] [Pooky, MGM, Dragon Phoenix, CES]

[Skruffs]

Tamuz - you think I am scum with Thesp because I said "Yay Thesp", right? And because I claimed to be role blocked? And because I was 'outguessing the mod' in saying that DP was outguessing the mod?

You *say* you thought I was scum yesterday, but I didn't show up on your condorcet lists...
and then there's this post, regarding Xyzzy:
" I think this is a false dilemma where he states in 159 that the scum are the only ones who start with any information. There are way too many goofy roles that we as a community have invented that result in townies or third parties starting with informations either because the mod outright states it or because one mechanic implies another."

Why are you focusing on townies having knowledge and not on the more relevant fact, mafia having power, especially on a day one situation?